| dc.contributor.advisor | 黃明聖 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 洪俊龍 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 洪俊龍 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2003 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 14-Sep-2009 13:38:09 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 14-Sep-2009 13:38:09 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 14-Sep-2009 13:38:09 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0090255007 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=33568 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 財政研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 9025007 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 92 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 以往研究政治景氣循環之文獻，焦點集中在經濟表現、股市漲跌和執政黨連任之關係。但是，由於選舉結果也會直接影響到一個國家的股市後勢，因此政治選舉事件的結果對市場參與者尤其重要。本研究以不確定資訊、過度反應及追漲殺跌理論，為實證發展的架構，實證研究各國股市行為對於正事件或是負事件的選舉結果如何影響股市的後勢表現。\r\n本文以10個國家的政治選舉事件，實證正、負事件的選舉結果對股市後勢的影響，並檢視重大選舉事件對股價變化究竟符合不確定資訊、過度反應及追漲殺跌理論何種理論。研究方法為事件研究法，並同時考慮以OLS與GARCH的模型來配適分析。\r\n實證結果發現不論以OLS或是GARCH的模型來配適分析，在建立預期報酬率模型上或有些許的差異，但最後皆能得到一致之結論。本文結論如下:\r\n1.支持不確定資訊理論者，無。\r\n2.支持過度反應理論者，計有台灣、法國、英國、新加坡。\r\n3.支持追漲殺跌理論者，計有泰國。\r\n4.皆不支持上述三種理論者，計有加拿大、西班牙、紐西蘭、德國、澳洲。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒 論............................................1\r\n 第1.1節 研究動機....................................1\r\n 第1.2節 研究目的....................................1\r\n 第1.3節 研究方法....................................2\r\n 第1.4節 研究架構與流程..............................2\r\n第二章 文獻回顧.........................................4\r\n 第2.1節 不確定資訊理論..............................6\r\n 第2.2節 過度反應理論................................9\r\n 第2.3節 追漲殺跌理論...............................10\r\n 第2.4節 本章小結...................................11\r\n第三章 模型建立與研究方法............................13\r\n 第3.1節 模型建立...................................13\r\n 第3.2節 事件研究法.................................16\r\n 第3.3節 OLS模型...................................20\r\n 第3.4節 GARCH模型.................................21\r\n 第3.5節 變數定義與資料處理.........................26\r\n 第3.6節 資料來源與研究對象.........................28\r\n第四章 實證結果與分析.................................30\r\n 第4.1節 OLS模型....................................31\r\n 第4.2節 GARCH模型..................................50\r\n 第4.3節 本章小結...................................65\r\n第五章 結 論...........................................66\r\n參考文獻................................................67 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090255007 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 正負事件的選舉結果 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 不確定資訊 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 過度反應 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 追漲殺跌 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 事件研究法 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 選舉結果與股市後勢表現 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 參考文獻 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 沈中華、李建然 (2000)，《事件研究法─財務與會計實證研究必備》，台北：華泰文化事業公司。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 鍾惠民、吳壽山、周賓凰、范懷文 (2002)，《財金計量》，台北：雙葉書廊。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ajayi, R. A. and S. Medhdian, (1994), “Rational investors’ reaction to | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | uncertainty: evidence form the world’s major markets”, Journal of | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Business Finance, 43, pp.533-545. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Allivine, F. D. and D. D. O’Neil, (1980), “Stock market returns and the presidential election cycle”, Finance Analysts Journal, 36, pp.49-56. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Alesina, A., (1987), “Macroeconomic policy in a two-party system as a repeated game”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 52, pp. 651-78. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Atesoglu, S. H. and R. Congleton, (1982), “Economic conditions and national elections post-sample forecasts of the Kramer equations”, American Political Science Review, 76, pp.873-875. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ball, R. and P. Brown, (1968), “An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers”, Journal of Accounting Research, 6, pp.159-178. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Bollerslev, T., (1986), ” Generalized autoregressive conditionalereroscedasticity”, Journal of econometrics, 31, pp. 307-327. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Brown and Warner, (1985), “Using daily stock returns :the case of event study.” ,Journal of Economics, 31, pp.3-31. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Brown, K. C., W. V. Harlow, and S.M. Tinic, (1988), “Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency”, Journal of Financial Economics, 22, pp.355-385. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chan, Louis K.C., Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Josef Lakonishok, (1996), “Momentum strategies” ,Journal of Finance, 51, pp.1681-1713. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Christos, P., D. A. Stangeland, and H. J. Turtle, (2000), “Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: the international evidence”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 24, pp.1575-1604. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler, (1985), “Does the stock market | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | overreact？”, Journal of Finance, 40, pp.793-805. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler, (1987), “Further evidence on investor | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | overreaction and stock market seasonality”, Journal of Finance, 42, pp.557-581. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Engle, Rober, F., (1982), ” Autoregressive conditional hereroscedasticity with | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | estimates of the variance of united kingdom inflation”, Econometrica, 50, pp. 987-1008. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Fama, E., L. Fisher, M. C. Jensen and R. Roll, (1969), “The adjustment of stock prices to new information”, International Economic Reviews, pp. pp.360-370. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Fama, E. F., (1970), “Efficient capital markets : A review of theory and | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | empirical Work,” Journal of Finance, 25, pp.383-417. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Foerster S. R. and J. J. Schneider, (1997), “The transmission of US election cyclys to international stock returns”, Journal of International Business Studies, 28, pp.1-27. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Jegadeesh, Narasismhan and Sharidan Titman, (1993), “Return to buying winners andselling losers：Implications for stock market efficiency”, Journal of Finance, 48, pp.65-91. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ketcher. D. N. and B. D. Jordan, (1994), “Short-term price-term price reversals following major price innovations: additional evidence on market overreaction”, Journal of Economics and Business, 32, pp.307-323. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Levy, Rokert, (1967), “Relative strength as a criterion for investment selection”, Journal of Finance, 22, pp.595-610. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Liang, Y. and D. Mullineaux, (1994), “Overreaction and reverse anticipation: two related puzzles?”, Journal of Financial Research, 17, pp.31-43. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Harrington, J. E., (1993), “Economic policy, economic performance and elections”, The American Economic Review, 83, pp. 27-42. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hibbs, D. A., (1977), “Political parties and macro-economic policy”, American Political Science Review, 71, pp.1467-1487. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Huang, Yen-Sheng, (1998), “Stock price reaction to daily limit moves: evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 25, pp.469-483. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | MacRae, D., (1997), “A political model of the business cycle”, Journal of Political Economy, 85, pp.239-264. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Nordhaus, W. D., (1975), “The political business cycle”, Review of Economic Studies, 42, pp.169-190. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Peterson, P. P., (1989), “Corporate forecasts of earnings per share and stock price behavior: empirical tests”, Journal of Business and Economic, 28, pp.36-66. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Van der Ploeg, F., (1989), “Election outcomes and stockmarket”, European Journal of Political Economy, 5, pp.21-30. | zh_TW |
