| dc.contributor.advisor | 沈中華 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Shen,Chung Hua | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 李娟菁 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 李娟菁 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2006 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 14-Sep-2009 13:42:34 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 14-Sep-2009 13:42:34 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 14-Sep-2009 13:42:34 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0892555031 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32344 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 博士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 財政研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 89255503 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 95 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本篇論文在結構性時間序列模型基礎下，將中國大陸29省市自治區1978-2005年實質人均GDP，拆解出其長期趨勢變動軌跡中的水準值與斜率值，對照傳統上直接利用實質所得數據，以動態縱橫資料方法進行經濟成長條件收斂假說的檢定。本文特色在於加入潛在GDP長期趨勢項的水準值和斜率值，並利用內生解釋變數落後項動態分析。除可驗證隨著時間經過，中國相對貧窮省區是否終將逐漸趕上相對富有省份所得水準外，其次，根據GDP趨勢項一階與二階條件的收斂與否，可進而確認實質GDP收斂的本質。 我們發現，實質人均GDP收斂的本質關鍵在於潛在趨勢水準收斂，潛在GDP趨勢斜率的成長率將左右區域間實質所得收斂速度。大部分樣本中，擴大的Solow模型或考慮不同經濟開放程度因素下的內生成長模型，支持條件收斂假說，而後者設算出的收斂係數明顯較為低。此外，考慮採用Arellano and Bond(1991)的the first difference GMM估計式可能存在弱工具性問題(a weak instruments problem)，以Blundell and Bond(1998)發展出的the system GMM估計式，作為探討初始所得與經濟成長收斂的關係應是較為適合的方法。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This research examines the economic growth conditional convergence hypothesis. Using the data of 29 provinces in Mainland China between 1978 and 2005, this study applied the structural time series model to deconstruct the provinces’ real GDP per capita into two parts - the level and the slope of trend movement. The characteristics of this paper are to include the level and the slope of trend of potential GDP and to consider the lagged dependent variables into the panel data. This study intends to validate whether the income level of relatively poor provinces will gradually catch up that of the relatively affluent provinces in Mainland China eventually. In addition, this study, based on the convergence or divergence in the first-order and second-order conditions of GDP tendency, will confirm the essence of the convergence in real GDP. The findings are that the essential key of the convergence in real GDP per capita is the convergence of the potential level of GDP. The growth of potential GDP tendency slope would affect the converging speed of real income in regions. The testing results of either the augmented Solow model or the endogenous growth model which considered different economic opening degrees both support the conditional convergence hypothesis in most sample sets, while the estimated convergence coefficients of the later are significantly lower than those of the former. In addition, considering the possible weak instruments problem in the first difference GMM estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), the system GMM developed by Blundell and Bond (1998) should be a more suitable way to observe the relation between initial income level and economic growth convergence. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 01 1.1 研究動機與目的 …………………………………… 01 1.2 研究方法與內容 …………………………………… 03 1.3 研究架構 …………………………………………… 05 第二章 理論基礎與文獻回顧 06 2.1 經濟成長β收斂之理論基礎 ……………………… 07 2.1.1 考慮人力資本下之擴大的Solow模型 ……… 07 2.1.2 內生成長模型 …………………………… 12 2.2 經濟成長收斂的傳統實證研究……………………… 13 2.2.1 中國大陸區域所得成長收斂的實證 ……… 13 2.2.2 其他各國相關實證研究 …………………… 16 2.3 結構性時間序列方法的相關研究 ………………… 19 第三章 結構性時間序列方法與模型設定 22 3.1 結構性時間序列方法 …………………………… 23 3.1.1 隨機趨勢(local linear trend)模型 ………… 23 3.1.2 狀態空間模型 …………………………… 24 3.2 結構性時間序列模型的估計與診斷………………… 27 3.2.1 狀態向量與參數估計 ……………………… ………… 27 3.2.2 結構性時間序列模型的診斷 …………………… 28 3.3 動態縱橫資料模型 ………………………………… 31 3.3.1 模型設定 …………………………………………… 32 3.3.2 GMM估計方法 ……………………………… 33 3.3.3 實證模型 …………………………………………… 36 3.4 對應新古典成長假說的三種收斂定義 …………… 39 第四章 資料與實證結果分析 42 4.1 資料說明 …………………………………………… 42 4.2 資料處理與分析 …………………………………… 42 4.2.1 結構性時間序列 ……………………………… 42 4.2.2 敍述統計 …………………………………………… 50 4.3 實證結果 …………………………………………… 53 4.3.1 各種收斂定義之檢定 ……………………………… 53 4.3.2 DIFF-GMM與system GMM估計結果比較………… 63 4.3.3 各項經濟參數對GDP成長之影響 ……… 66 第五章 結論與建議 68 參考文獻 71 附錄 79 圖表目錄 表一 潛在成份變數的殘差變異數與特定趨勢形態…………31 表二 變數說明與資料來源 ……………………………………41 表三 29省市自治區結構性時間序列模型（3）診斷……… 46 表四 29省市自治區結構性時間序列模型（3）趨勢潛在成份估計 ……………………………………………………………47 表五 中國大陸29省區各變數平均值（1978-2005）………52 表六 擴大的 Solow模型：條件 收斂檢定__應變數為GDP 57 表七 擴大的Solow模型：條件 收斂檢定__應變數為GDP_L58 表八 擴大的Solow模型：條件 收斂檢定__應變數為GDP_S59 表九 內生成長模型：條件 收斂檢定__應變數為GDP………60 表一〇 內生成長模型：條件 收斂檢定__應變數為GDP_L……61 表一一 內生成長模型：條件 收斂檢定__應變數為GDP_S……62 表一二 擴大的Solow模型：DIFF-GMM和SYSTEM-GMM條件收斂估計結果比較 …………………………………………………………… 64 表一三 內生成長模型：DIFF-GMM和SYSTEM-GMM條件收斂估計結果比較 ………………………………………………………………65 圖一 GDP與拆解後的“level” “slope“：沿海11省……48 圖二 GDP與拆解後的“level” “slope“：內陸18省……49 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892555031 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 結構性時間序列 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 成長收斂假說 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 動態縱橫資料 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | GMM估計 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | structural time series | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | economic growth convergence hypothesis | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | dynamic panel data | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | GMM estimation | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 中國大陸區域經濟成長收斂研究-結構性時間序列之應用 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | A Study of Provincial Economic Growth Convergence in China with Applied Structural Time Series Approach | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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