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題名 台灣五大都會區颱洪災害脆弱度評估比較之研究
Taiwan`s five major metropolitan areas of Taiwan vulnerability assessment of flood disasters comparison study
作者 張竣維
貢獻者 白仁德
張竣維
關鍵詞 脆弱度
模糊德爾菲法
分析層級程序法
分析網絡程序法
日期 2008
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 13:54:39 (UTC+8)
摘要 氣候變遷與脆弱度是近年國際的發燒話題,水災、旱災等發生次次數大為提高,台灣一樣是不能倖免於外而面臨多種災害。在許多文獻指出,人口集中、都市開發將增加脆弱程度,加上國內近年興起對災害及環境脆弱度的重視,近年多位學者也致力於災害脆弱度的研究。是故,都市發展與災害發生在人口稠密的都市地區,評估和解決洪災、水災的問題是極為重要的。在計劃解決災害之前,如何做好整體實質指標化的作業,讓災害的評估更有具體的參考功能,提供地區內防災、空間規劃與土地使用檢討等,將是探討的主要課題。
     本研究將探究脆弱度的內涵,擬出脆弱度評估指標,藉由模糊德爾菲法的專家問卷分析,建立指標體系;之後再應用多準則評估方法中的層級分析法與網絡分析法,加以找出都市脆弱度指標的階層關係與權重,有助最後完成都會區脆弱度及回復力指標之體系。最後針對擬出的指標體系,將應用於台灣主要都會區做為實證分析,並檢視此指標的分析結果是否符合過去或現在的情況,有無改進之處與後續研究。
     研究成果兼納脆弱度各種相關的評估價值與面向,包括暴露性、敏感度與回復力,進行模糊德爾菲專家問卷,對指標體系之調整與修正,確立都會區颱洪災害脆弱度之評估架構,建立六大面向、二十七項指標的評估體系。整合不同領域專家對都會區颱洪災害脆弱度的評估,對這六大面向有一定程度的共識。從本研究也發現,正向面向的軟硬體設施、整備與應變能力與重建與復原能力在脆弱度的評估上佔有半數以上的權重。最後就決策群體的意見為考量,對各主要都會區的颱洪災害脆弱度做評比。
Climate change and vulnerability are recent fever topics. Floods, drought and other disasters of occurrence increase. Taiwan is not immune to the outside face a variety of disasters. Many papers pointed out that the concentrated population and urban development will increase the vulnerability. In recent years, domestic disasters and environmental vulnerability get a number of scholars` attention to study disaster vulnerability. Therefore, urban development and disaster in a densely populated urban areas, assessment and settlement of flood problem is paramount importance. Before the plans to solve the disaster, how to do a good indicator of the overall substance of the operation, let the assessment of disaster is more specific reference to function, to provide disaster areas, space planning and land use review will be the main topics.
     
     This study will explore the connotations of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of the proposed indicators by the expert on Fuzzy Delphi questionnaire analysis, the establishment of index system; after the application of multi-criteria assessment of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network Process, to be to identify indicators of vulnerability of urban class relations and the weight of the metropolitan area will help to finalize the vulnerability and resilience of the system indicators. Finally, the proposed target system, will be applied to the major metropolitan area in Taiwan as empirical analysis, and view the results of the analysis of this indicator is consistent with the past or the present situation, any improvement with the follow-up study.
     
     Research results satisfied all relevant vulnerability assessment of the value-oriented, including exposure, sensitivity and recovery, Fuzzy Delphi survey index system of adjustments and amendments to the metropolitan areas of Taiwan to establish vulnerability of flood disaster assessment framework. Established of six turn towards and 27 indicators to assess the system. Experts in the field of integration of different metropolitan areas of Taiwan, flood disaster vulnerability assessment for the six degree of consensus. From this study also found that forward-hardware and software infrastructure oriented, preparedness and response capabilities and the ability of reconstruction and rehabilitation of the assessment of vulnerability occupy more than half the weight. Finally, the decision-making groups for consideration of all the
     major metropolitan areas of Taiwan do flood disaster vulnerability assessment.
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經濟部水利署,2006,綜合治水策略與颱洪災害防救。
經濟部水利署,2007,水利防洪設施受新類型災害之脆弱度與調適度分析。
經濟部水利署,2007,颱風豪雨預判研究前期計畫。
農委會水土保持局,2007,治山防洪綱要計畫研擬與規劃決策系統建置。
劉婧、史培軍、葛怡、王靜愛、呂紅峰,2006,災害恢復力研究進展綜述,地球科學進展,第21卷第2期。
潘淑滿,2003,質性研究-理論與應用,台北:心理。
歐陽嶠暉,2005,都市環境學,台北:詹式書局。
蔡慧敏,2002,永續台灣評量系統,http://www.initiate.com.tw/demo/sdi/section03.htm,取自2008年10月。
衛萬里 (2007),應用分析網路程序法選擇最佳產品設計方案之決策分析模式,國立台灣科技大學博士論文。
鄧振源、曾國雄,1989 ,層級分析法(AHP)的內涵特性與應用(上),中國統計學報,27-6:5-22 。
鄧振源、曾國雄,1989 ,層級分析法(AHP)的內涵特性與應用(下),中國統計學報,27-7:1-20 。
鄭滄濱,2001,軟體組織提升人員能力之成熟度模糊評估模式,碩士論文,國立台灣科技大學,台北。
蕭煥章,2008,水災脆弱性評估模式之建立—以汐止市為例,中國文化大學地學研究所博士論文。
賴炳樹,2008,環境變遷與國土保育地區劃設之模擬--以桃園縣為例,2008國土規劃論壇。
環保署,2009,國科會空污防制科研合作計畫。
謝信良、陳正改,1986,台灣地區氣象災害之調查研究(2),國科會防災科技研究報告,75-4:107。
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二、外文部分
Adgeretal., 2005, “Social-ecological resilience to coastal disaster”, Science, Volume 309 pp 1036-1039 Adgeretal., 2005, “Social-ecological resilience to coastal disaster”, Science, Volume 309 pp 1036-1039
B. Barroca, P. Bernardara, J. M. Mouchel, and G. Hubert, 2006, “Indicators for identification of urban flooding vulnerability”, Hubert Page(s) 553-561.
Bohle, H.G., et al. 2000. "Water Conflicts and Environmental Entitlements. Local-Level Experience from South Asia." IGU Bulletin Vol 30, No 1: 39-46.
Clark, G.E. et al.,1998. Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to extreme storms: the case of Revere, MA., USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(1):59-82.
Cutter, 1996, “Vulnerability to environmental hazard”, Progress in Human Geography, Vol. 20, No. 4, 529-539 .
Cutter, 2003, “The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability”, Department of Geography and Hazards Research Lab, University of South Carolina.
Ettazarini, S / El Mahmouhi, N, 2004, “Vulnerability mapping of the Turonian limestone aquifer in the Phosphates Plateau(Morocco)”, Environmental geology(Berlin), 46:11, 113-117.
Folke, C., S. Carpenter, T. Elmqvist, L. Gunderson, C.S. Holling, and B. Walker, 2002, “Resilience and sustainable development: Building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations”, Resilience and sustainable development: Building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations, Ambio 31:437-440.
Frank Messner, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Colin Green, Volker Meyer, Sylvia Tunstall, Anne van der Veen, 2007, “Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods”.
Frank Messner, Volker Meyer, 2005, “Flood damage, vulnerability and risk perception – challenges for flood damage research.”, challenges for flood damage research, 2005-12.
Gallopin, 2006, “Linkage between vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity”.
Godschalk, D.R., 2003, “Urban hazard mitigation: creating resilient cities”, Natural Hazards Review, 4(3), pp. 136–143.
Hoang Minh Hien, Tran Nhu Trung, Wim Looijen and Kees Hulsbergen, 2005, “Flood Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping in Vietnam”, 67, (18).
Hwang, C.L. and Lin, M.L., 1987. Group Decision Making Under Multiple Criteria Method & Application, Springer-Verlag, Reading, Berlin Heidelberg.
Joern Birkmann, 2007, Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales:Applicability, usefulness and policy implications, Environmental Hazards 7 (2007) 20–31.
K. R. E. Huizingh and H. C. J. Vrolijk, 1995, Decision Support for Information Systems Management: Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM.
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M.J. Metzger, M.D.A. Rounsevell, L. Acosta-Michlik, R. Leemans, D. Schro¨ter, 2006, The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change.
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Oliver-Smith, Anthony 2002 “Theorizing Disasters: Nature, Culture, Power,” in Susanna M. Hoffman and Anthony Oliver-Smith, (eds.) Culture and Catastrophe: The Anthropology of Disaster, Santa Fe, New Mexico: The School of American Research Press.
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Saaty, T. L.,The Analytic Network Process,RWS Publications.,1996
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SL Cutter, BJ Boruff, WL Shirley, 2003, “Social vulnerability to environmental hazards”, Social Science Quarterly, Volume 84, Number 2.
Turner, B. L., II, Roger E. Kasperson, Pamela A. Matson, James J. McCarthy, Robert W. Corell, Lindsey Christensen, Noelle Eckley, Jeanne X. Kasperson, Amy Luers, Marybeth L. Martello, Colin Polsky, Alexander Pulsipher, and Andrew Schiller, 2003, “A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 100(14) (8 July): 8074-8079.
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WorldBank, 2005, “Natural Disaster Hotspots - A Global Risk Analysis”, Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. Volume two, Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
96257017
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096257017
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 白仁德zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張竣維zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 張竣維zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 13:54:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 13:54:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 13:54:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0096257017en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32405-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96257017zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 氣候變遷與脆弱度是近年國際的發燒話題,水災、旱災等發生次次數大為提高,台灣一樣是不能倖免於外而面臨多種災害。在許多文獻指出,人口集中、都市開發將增加脆弱程度,加上國內近年興起對災害及環境脆弱度的重視,近年多位學者也致力於災害脆弱度的研究。是故,都市發展與災害發生在人口稠密的都市地區,評估和解決洪災、水災的問題是極為重要的。在計劃解決災害之前,如何做好整體實質指標化的作業,讓災害的評估更有具體的參考功能,提供地區內防災、空間規劃與土地使用檢討等,將是探討的主要課題。
     本研究將探究脆弱度的內涵,擬出脆弱度評估指標,藉由模糊德爾菲法的專家問卷分析,建立指標體系;之後再應用多準則評估方法中的層級分析法與網絡分析法,加以找出都市脆弱度指標的階層關係與權重,有助最後完成都會區脆弱度及回復力指標之體系。最後針對擬出的指標體系,將應用於台灣主要都會區做為實證分析,並檢視此指標的分析結果是否符合過去或現在的情況,有無改進之處與後續研究。
     研究成果兼納脆弱度各種相關的評估價值與面向,包括暴露性、敏感度與回復力,進行模糊德爾菲專家問卷,對指標體系之調整與修正,確立都會區颱洪災害脆弱度之評估架構,建立六大面向、二十七項指標的評估體系。整合不同領域專家對都會區颱洪災害脆弱度的評估,對這六大面向有一定程度的共識。從本研究也發現,正向面向的軟硬體設施、整備與應變能力與重建與復原能力在脆弱度的評估上佔有半數以上的權重。最後就決策群體的意見為考量,對各主要都會區的颱洪災害脆弱度做評比。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Climate change and vulnerability are recent fever topics. Floods, drought and other disasters of occurrence increase. Taiwan is not immune to the outside face a variety of disasters. Many papers pointed out that the concentrated population and urban development will increase the vulnerability. In recent years, domestic disasters and environmental vulnerability get a number of scholars` attention to study disaster vulnerability. Therefore, urban development and disaster in a densely populated urban areas, assessment and settlement of flood problem is paramount importance. Before the plans to solve the disaster, how to do a good indicator of the overall substance of the operation, let the assessment of disaster is more specific reference to function, to provide disaster areas, space planning and land use review will be the main topics.
     
     This study will explore the connotations of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of the proposed indicators by the expert on Fuzzy Delphi questionnaire analysis, the establishment of index system; after the application of multi-criteria assessment of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network Process, to be to identify indicators of vulnerability of urban class relations and the weight of the metropolitan area will help to finalize the vulnerability and resilience of the system indicators. Finally, the proposed target system, will be applied to the major metropolitan area in Taiwan as empirical analysis, and view the results of the analysis of this indicator is consistent with the past or the present situation, any improvement with the follow-up study.
     
     Research results satisfied all relevant vulnerability assessment of the value-oriented, including exposure, sensitivity and recovery, Fuzzy Delphi survey index system of adjustments and amendments to the metropolitan areas of Taiwan to establish vulnerability of flood disaster assessment framework. Established of six turn towards and 27 indicators to assess the system. Experts in the field of integration of different metropolitan areas of Taiwan, flood disaster vulnerability assessment for the six degree of consensus. From this study also found that forward-hardware and software infrastructure oriented, preparedness and response capabilities and the ability of reconstruction and rehabilitation of the assessment of vulnerability occupy more than half the weight. Finally, the decision-making groups for consideration of all the
     major metropolitan areas of Taiwan do flood disaster vulnerability assessment.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 ...............................................................................................................................I
     目錄 ............................................................................................................................IV
     圖目錄 .........................................................................................................................V
     表目錄 ......................................................................................................................VII
     
     第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................................1
     第一節 研究背景與動機 ......................................................................................1
     第二節 研究目的 ..................................................................................................4
     第三節 研究內容與研究方法 ..............................................................................5
     第四節 研究流程 ..................................................................................................7
     
     第二章 文獻回顧 ........................................................................................................9
     第一節 脆弱度之相關研究 ..................................................................................9
     第二節 回復力之相關研究 ................................................................................24
     第三節 都會區颱洪災害 ....................................................................................29
     第四節 脆弱度評估與指標 ................................................................................37
     
     第三章 都會區颱洪脆弱度評估架構之建立 ..........................................................55
     第一節 評估作業流程 ........................................................................................55
     第二節 多準則評估方法之應用 ........................................................................57
     第三節 評估面向與指標 ....................................................................................65
     第四節 評估指標體系之確立 ............................................................................71
     
     第四章 指標體系與比較地區分析 ..........................................................................81
     第一節 五大都會區概要 ....................................................................................81
     第二節 網絡關係與矩陣運算 ..........................................................................101
     第三節 指標體系權重分析 ..............................................................................109
     第四節 評估結果之比較分析 ..........................................................................122
     第五節 調適性規劃之應用 ..............................................................................130
     
     第五章 結論與建議 ................................................................................................137
     第一節 結論 ......................................................................................................137
     第二節 研究限制 ..............................................................................................140
     第三節 研究貢獻 ..............................................................................................141
     第四節 建議 ......................................................................................................142
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096257017en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 脆弱度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模糊德爾菲法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析層級程序法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析網絡程序法zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 台灣五大都會區颱洪災害脆弱度評估比較之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Taiwan`s five major metropolitan areas of Taiwan vulnerability assessment of flood disasters comparison studyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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