Publications-Theses

題名 俄羅斯對美國政策之研究 - 2000年∼2003年
作者 陳怡君
貢獻者 王定士
陳怡君
關鍵詞 普欽
小布希
全方位對外政策
國家安全
戰略三角政治
俄美戰略關係
戰略和解
俄中戰略關係
日期 2002
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 17:44:06 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文試圖透過戰略三角政治研究途徑和克里姆林宮政治研究途徑,探討普欽時期的俄羅斯對美國政策。
蘇聯解體後,俄羅斯對外政策路線的走向,由葉里欽執政初期的一面倒向以美國為首的親西方之大西洋主義政策路線,轉向為葉里欽執政後期的拉攏中國抗衡美國的東西平衡對外政策路線;到了普欽執政時期,又重新定位為與美國進行戰略和解,進而進行戰略合作的全方位對外政策路線, 以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致的戰略羈絆之制約。本文試圖探討,驅動普欽時期此一俄羅斯對美國政策路線轉變的內外在因素。
本論文認為,普欽執政期間,俄羅斯對美政策之形成,乃是在承襲葉里欽對外政策的遺緒,在普欽的強勢領導之下,俄羅斯之決策菁英,以俄羅斯的國家安全及國家利益為訴求,援引包括戰略三角互動、美國的政策與做為、俄羅斯經濟發展與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內外在環境因素,作為其政策辯論的依據,透過克里姆林宮政治的互動形塑而成。
上述假設命題可以引申出下列邏輯相關的子命題:

一•普欽的對美政策,受到包括戰略三角互動與美國的政策與做為等俄羅斯外在環境因素之影響形塑而成。

1999年普欽上台前夕,科索佛戰爭及北約戰略新概念的提出,加深了俄羅斯的安全疑慮;而2001年4月,美中軍機擦撞事件,則加深了中美關係的裂痕;此一發展促使俄中戰略夥伴關係趨於密切。2001年6月中國主導「上海合作組織」的成立,以及7月俄中睦鄰友好合作條約的簽訂,就是此一發展邏輯的結果。然而,隨著中國在□海地區爭霸戰中影響力的增長,有關中國威脅論的聲音,也在俄羅斯安全決策階層引起越來越多的迴響。而此一發展,則促使俄羅斯尋求與美國進行戰略和解,以防範中國之威脅。另一方面,蘇聯解體後,中國勢力快速崛起,美國不再視俄羅斯為其戰略對手,轉而防範中國之威脅。911事件之後,美國面臨反恐之戰以及分散油源之需求,小布希總統調整了對俄政策,讓普欽得以順利與美國進行戰略和解;從而,普欽得以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。

二•普欽的對美政策,受到包括經濟發展考量與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內在環境因素之影響形塑而成。

面對俄羅斯國內的經濟窘境,普欽認為,唯有與美國進行戰略和解,才能儘快加入世界貿易組織、增加歐美的投資和援助、減輕外債負擔、從而促進經濟發展。另一方面,普欽的強勢領導地位以及務實的政治手腕,使得普欽得以操控國內政治生態的互動,主導俄羅斯國家安全概念的重新定位;從而,得以順利推動全方位對外政策路線,與美國進行戰略和解,藉以擺脫葉里欽後期所建立的俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。
The purpose of this study is aimed at exploring Russia’s policy toward the United States under Bladimir Putin, 2000-2003. The strategic triangle politics approach and the Kremlin politics approach are applied in this study.
After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s line of foreign policy had been shifted from the one-sided pro-Western Atlanticism in the early stage of Boris Yel’tsin’s administration toward the East-West balanced strategy, attempting to draw China on the same front against the United States, in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime. After Putin had come to power, Russia’s line of foreign policy was reoriented as a comprehensive one, engaging in strategic reconciliation and strategic cooperation with the U.S. and, consequently, getting rid of the strategic entanglement resulted from the establishment of the partnership of strategic coordination between China and Russia. Against this background, this study attempts to investigate the internal and external factors that drive this shift in Russia’s line of foreign policy under Putin.
The hypothesis of this study is as follows: Shadowed by Yel’tsin’s legacy of foreign policy and forged under Putin’s strong leadership, Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been shaped by the interaction of Kremlin politics, engaged by Russian decision-making elites, who appeal to Russia’s national security and national interests in their policy debates, referring to Russia’s external and internal factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics, the US policies and conduct, Russia’s economic developments, and domestic political ecological changes in Russia. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically consequential sub-propositions:

1•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s external factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics and the US policies and conduct.

In the spring of 1999, on the eve of Putin’s coming to power, the breakout of War in Kosovo and the pronunciation of NATO’s new Strategic Concept had created serious concerns for Russians about their national security. And in April 2001, the collision of US-Chinese military aircrafts above the South China Sea had deepen the Sino-US fissures. Consequently, the development of these events had pushed closer the Partnership of Russo-Chinese Strategic Coordination. As a result, the creation of Chinese-initiated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June 2001 and the conclusion of the Treaty of Good-Neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia in the following month were only a logical outcome.
However, accompanying the growth of China’s influence in the area of Caspian Sea, the voice of “China threat” has received more and more attention in the circle of Russia’s national security decision-makers. These developments, in turn, had forced Russia to search for strategic reconciliation with the United States in order to prevent China from becoming a threat. On the other hand, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rapid rise of China’s influence, the United States no longer treat Russia as a strategic rival; instead, they shift their efforts to prevent China from becoming a threat. In the wake of the terrorist attack on 11 September 2001, in order to meet the needs for engaging campaigns against terrorism and for deconcentrating the sources of petroleum, President Bush has readjusted US policy toward Russian. As a consequence, these shifts in US policy provide Putin with a golden opportunity to engage in strategic reconciliation with the United States and thus get rid of strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic coordination with China.

2•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s internal factors, such as the economic development and the political ecological changes in Russia.

In the face of Russia’s economic predicament, in Putin’s opinion, the only way to promote economic development is the strategic reconciliation with the United States, which will accelerate the process for Russia to obtain the access to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in turn to gain the access to investments and financial assistance from the West and to lessen the burden of foreign loans. In addition, with his strong leadership and his pragmatic political skills, Putin has been able to maneuver the interaction of domestic political econlogies in favor of the reorientation of Russia’s concept of national security. As a result, Putin has been able to forge a comprehensive line of foreign policy and, accordingly, to conduct strategic reconciliation with the United States. Consequently, he has been able to get rid of the strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic Coordination with China in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime.
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鐘悅,「普欽『雙頭鷹』外交的傾向性特徵」,國際觀察 1 (2001): 26-28。
三、 報紙
「『中俄睦鄰友好合作條約』全文」,聯合報,17 Jul 2001, p. 10。
「911事件衝擊 扭轉美核武戰略」,自由時報,10 Mar 2002, p. 10。
「上海合作組織成形抵制NMD」,中央日報,16 Jun 2001, p. 1。
「中俄簽友好條約 同申反對飛彈防禦系統」,自由時報,17 Jul 2001, p. 10。
「中華人民共和國和俄羅斯聯邦睦鄰友好合作條約」,人民日報,17 Jul 2001, p. 1。
「反對動武 俄揚言軍援南國 總理取消訪美」,中國時報,25 Mar 1999, p. 3。
「北約動武 國際評價不一」,中國時報,26 Mar 1999, p. 7。
「布普高峰會,美俄進入新戰略架構」,聯合報,22 Oct 2001, p. 2。
「收回地方權力 普欽展決心」,自由時報,23 May 2001, p. 10。
「俄內閣改組 文人接任國防部長」,聯合報,29 Mar 2001, p. 11。
「俄反對IMF合作協定」,國際金融報,3 Apr 2001, p. 1。
「俄新軍事準則新變化」,解放軍報,27 Nov 2000, p. 8。
「俄羅斯:策略與戰略」,人民日報,22 Mar 2002, p. 7。
「美俄武器管制爭議又起」,中國時報,26 Apr 2000, p. 13。
「美俄峰會宣示裁減核武達2/3」,中國時報,15 Nov 2001, p. 10。
「美俄核武談判牽動亞太安全」,中央日報,19 Apr 2000, p. 2。
「美俄關係面臨冰點」,中央日報,26 Mar 1999, p. 3。
「美專家:十年來最重要的軍售」,聯合報,25 Apr 2001, p. 3。
「倫斯斐遊說 俄拒絕退出ABM」,自由時報,14 Aug 2001, p. 6。
「普欽改組內閣 強化國安事務控制權」,中國時報,30 Mar 2001, p. 10。
「普欽挨耳光不能叫痛」,中國時報,19 Dec 2001, p. 10。
「普欽提議採用前蘇聯舊國歌軍旗」,中國時報,9 Dec 2000, p. 11。
「普欽開啟美俄限武談判新紀元」,中央日報,18 Apr 2000, p. 11。
「普欽與布希間的矛盾」,中國時報,3 Jun 2003, p. 12。
「普欽嚴詞反擊俄羅斯寡頭」,上海文匯報,2 Sep 2000, p. 2。
「華府學者:911改變美核武策略」,中國時報,10 Mar 2002, p. 7。
「葉里欽時代官員遭撤換」,香港文匯報,31 Mar 2001, p. A6。
「領土若遭威脅 俄可能率先動用核武」,中國時報,19 Oct 1999, p. 13。
「劇院事件落幕 普欽向恐怖活動宣戰」,中國時報,29 Oct 2002, p. 10。
「調查顯示中國人不相信北約誤炸中國大使館」,北京青年報,20 May 1999。
「遭遇中右黨派突襲 痛失杜馬領導地位 俄共近日受重傷」,環球時報,8 Apr 2002, p. 1。
「鮑威爾重申 美不對非核武國家動用核武」,自由時報,17 Mar 2002, p. 9。
王仲春,「二十一世紀中國:從容應對變化中的世界」,大公報,18 Jan 2000, p. A4。
王鳳才,「俄羅斯仍讓人生畏」,解放軍報,22 Nov 2000。
朱峰,「分析:美國對台軍售政策究竟出現了什麽變化」,中國日報,28 Apr 2001, p. 3。
李慶義,「俄黨派林立 百姓犯難」,中國青年報,14 Jul 1995。
杜文學、徐俊文,「普欽欲重振俄軍雄風」,中國國防報,11 May 2001, p. 2。
汪金國、楊恕,「人民觀察:油氣,美反恐怖戰爭的真正目標」,人民日報,13 May 2002, p. 7。
俞兵,「中俄關係雖熱絡雙方仍爾虞我詐」,中國時報,11 Aug 2000, p. 14。
夏義善,「『中俄睦鄰友好合作條約』的內涵和意義」,人民日報,18 Jul 2001, p. 7。
海秀,「俄羅斯欲重振海洋雄風」,中國國防報,16 Aug 2001, p. 3。
常東,「俄羅斯出了個新共產黨」,環球時報,4 Jul 2002, p. 2。
閻學通,「歷史的繼續 - 冷戰後的主要國際政治矛盾」,大公報,19 Jul 2000, p. A3。
謝榮,「俄國防新思維仰仗『鯊魚』和『白楊』(上)」,中國青年報,5 Jul 2002。
關中,「九一一事件對美國外交政策的影響」,中央日報,17 Oct 2001, p. 9。
四、 網站資料
「中央社國際時事分析:俄美元首舉行高峰會談」,新浪網,25 Nov 2002, http://news.sina.com.tw/sinaNews/rtn/glPolitics/2002/1125/10804690.html。
「中俄共同呼籲對聯合國實行改革」,路透社,30 May 2003, http://news.yam.com/reuters/international/news/200305/39270.html。
「中華人民共和國和俄羅斯聯邦北京宣言」,新華社,18 Jul 2000, http://202.130.245.40/chinese/2000/Aug/1775.htm。
「北大西洋公約組織」,地球村,http://world99.myetang.com/zz/by.htm。
「北約大動干戈 俄羅斯國備感威脅」,中時電子報,23 Apr 1999, http://forums.chinatimes.com.tw/report/kosovo/88042303.htm。
「北約新戰略概念」,新華社,14 Dec 2000, http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/202.84.17.73/mil/htm/20001214/267136.htm。
「北約誤炸 北京:對中國主權的粗暴侵犯」,中時電子報,9 May 1999, http://forums.chinatimes.com.tw/report/kosovo/88050910.htm。
「布希下令國防部兩年內完成基本飛彈防禦部署」,中央社,19 Dec 2002, http://news.pchome.com.tw/internation/cna/20021218/index-20021218234710010448.html。
「田春生:俄羅斯經濟增幅減緩,但運行平穩」,中國網,9 Jan 2003, http://202.130.245.40/chinese/zhuanti/259233.htm。
「同樣反戰 席哈克與普欽 布希一冷一熱」,東森新聞報,2 Jun 2003, http://www.ettoday.com.tw/2003/06/02/168-1463300.htm。
「俄土升高壓力反對美對伊拉克採取軍事行動」,蕃薯藤,6 Jan 2003, http://news.yam.com/afp/focus/news/200301/20030106085005.html。
「俄成爲世界第一大產油國」,新華社,22 Mar 2002, http://www.china.com.cn/chinese/kuaixun/122158.htm。
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「俄羅斯─北約委員會在莫斯科舉行會議」,法新社,13 May 2003, http://news.yam.com/afp/international/news/200305/20030513202003.html。
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「俄羅斯入世之路有多長」,新華社,17 Jul 2002, http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2002-07/17/content_485478.htm。
「俄羅斯今天成立新共產黨 前蘇共領導人孫子出山」,上海熱線,1 Jul 2002, http://news.online.sh.cn/news/gb/content/2002-07/01/content_383620.htm。
「俄羅斯今年共付給世界貨幣基金會27億美元的外債」,國際貿易局,19 Nov 2001, http://www.trade.gov.tw/richspeed/speedcontent.asp?bbb=38005&aaa=c033&ccc=56。
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「俄羅斯總統普欽將訪問中國大陸」,中央社,25 Nov 2002, http://news.yam.com/cna/international/news/200211/2002112501001.html。
「俄羅斯輿論批評中國阻撓俄國加入WTO」,大紀元,4 Jun 2002, http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/2/6/4/n194432.htm。
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「美國部署攔截導彈引起盟邦疑慮 」,中央社,18 Dec 2002, http://news.pchome.com.tw/internation/cna/20021219/index-20021219093252010026.html。
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葉慕予,「俄羅斯向西方的轉變」,多維周刊,http://www.chinesenewsweek.com/104/Feature/8409.html。
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蔡裕明,「後911時期美國的軍事戰略」,楓絜春秋,2 Sep 2002, http://www.taiwanstrategy.org/show_form?sid=292&dod=OnDWfflzSDPKD。
鄭羽,「評1999年俄羅斯聯邦國家安全概念」,人民網,http://www.people.com.cn/wsrmlt/jbzl/2000/01/zhengyu/a103.html。
簡又新,「外交部第五屆第二會期外交施政報告」,中華名國外交部,http://www.mofa.gov.tw/newmofa/MajorSpeeches/chien911016.htm。
魏宗雷,「2002年美國外交及戰略作了哪些調整」,中國網,25 Dec 2002, http://202.130.245.40/chinese/2002/Dec/252151.htm。
魏宗雷,「美國『國土安全戰略』報告」,中國網,18 Jul 2002, http://202.130.245.40/chinese/2002/Jul/175170.htm。
貳、 英文部分
一、 書籍
After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia. Washington D. C.: National Defense University Press, 1995.
Aron, Leon and Kenneth M. Jensen. The Emergence of Russian Foreign Policy. Washington D. C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1994.
Berglof, Erik and Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden. The Changing Corporate Governance Paradigm : Implications for Transition and Developing Countries. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, 1999.
Breslauer, George W.. Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders: Building Authority in Soviet Politics. London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982.
Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard : American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books, 1997.
Buch, Claudia M., Ralph P. Heinrich, Lusine Lusinyan, and Mechthild Schrooten. Russia’s Debt Crisis and the Unofficial Economy. Kiel Institute of World Economics, Apr 2002.
Bush, George. National Security Strategy of the United States, 1990-1991. Washington: Brassey`s US, 1990.
Bush, George. Security Strategy for the 1990s. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Office of Public Communication, Editorial Division.
Buszynski, Leszek. Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Westport Press, 1996.
Dallin, Alexander, ed.. The Domestic Context of Soviet Foreign Policy. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1981.
Davis, Jacquelyn K. and Michael J. Sweeney. Strategic Paradigm 2025: US Security Planning for a New Era. Dulles, VA: Brassey`s, 1999.
Diamond, Larry. Developing Democracy. Baltimore, Md.: John Hopkins University Press, 1999.
Dittmer, Lowell. Power, Strategy, and Security. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983.
Easton, David. A Framework for Political Analysis. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, 1965.
Flournoy, Michelle A.. QDR 2001 : Strategy-Driven Choices for America`s Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2001.
Forsythe, Rosemarie. The Politics of Oil in the Caucasus and Central Asia. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996.
Galeotti, Mark. The Age of Anxiety : Security and Politics in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia. New York: Longman, 1995.
Grayson, George W.. Strange Bedfellows: NATO Marches East. New York: University Press of America, 1999.
International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics Yearbook 2002. Washington D.C: International Monetary Fund, 2002.
Kegley, Charles W.. American Foreign Policy, Pattern and Process. New York: St. Martin`s Press, 1982.
Kugler, Richard L. and Mariana V. Kozintseva. Enlarging NATO: The Russia Factor. Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation, 1996.
Lasater, Martin L.. The New Pacific Community: U.S. Strategic Options in Asia. Boulder, col.: Westview Press, 1996.
Lo, Bobo. Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy. Blackwell, Sep 2002.
Morgenthau, H. J.. Politics among Nations : The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978.
National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement. Washington, D.C.: The White House, Feb 1993-1995.
Nosov, Mikhail. Challenges to the Strategic Balance in East Asia on the Eve of the 21st Century: A View from Russia. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, 1997.
Nye Jr., Joseph S.. Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. New York: Basic Books, 1990.
Nye Jr., Joseph S.. The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s only Superpower can’t go it alone. New York: Oxford University, 2002.
Poland, James M.. Understanding Terrorism: Group, Strategies and Responses. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, 1988.
Rosenau, James N., Kenneth W. Thompson and Gavin Boyd. World Politics: An Introduction. New York: Free Press, 1976.
Russian Foreign Policy Since 1990. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1995.
Schmid, Alex P.. Western Responses to Terrorism. London: Frank Cass, 1993.
Segal, Gerald. The Great Power Triangle. Hong Kong: The Macmillan Press, 1982.
Sokolsky, Richard and Tanya Charlick-Paley. NATO and Caspian Security – A Mission Too Far? Washington: RAND, 1999.
Solomon, Richard H. ed.. The China Factor: Sino - American Relations and the Global Scene. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1981.
Spanier, John W.. Games Nations Play : Analyzing International Politics. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston/Praeger, 1978.
Spanier, John. Games Nations Play. Washington D. C.: C.Q. Press, 1987.
Steinfels, Peter. The New Conservatives: The Man Who Are Changing America’s Politics. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979.
The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union. New York: Paragon House Publishers, 1987.
Tismaneanu, Vladimir ed.. Political Culture and Civil Society in Russia and the New States of Eurasia. Armonk: M. E. Sharpe, 1995.
Wolf Jr., Charles, Anil Bamezai, K. C. Yeh and Benjamin Zycher. Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications. Santa Monica: RAND, 2000.
World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1995. Washington D.C.: U.S. General Printing Office, 1996.
Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1991.
二、 期刊
“A Flawed Policy.” Far Eastern Economic Review 164, 42 (25 Oct 2001): 31.
“Caspian Reserves Luring Operators.” Oil and Gas Journal (21 Jul 1997): 23-30.
“Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security Between NATO and the Russian Federation, Paris, May 27, 1997, Summary.” Comparative Strategy 16, 4 (1997): 418.
“The Battle for Energy Dominance.” Foreign Affairs 81, 2 (2002): 16-31.
“To Russia for Love.” The Economist (18-24 May 2002): 11.
“U. S. Policy: National Security and Foreign Aid.” Congressional Digest 77 (Aug/Sep 1998): 198-200.
“Vladimir Putin’s Long, Hard Haul.” The Economist (18-24 May 2002): 26-28.
Arbatov, Alexei G.. “Russia’s Foreign Policy Alternatives.” International Security 18, 2 (Fall 1993): 5-43.
Arbatov, Georgi. “A New Cold War?” Foreign Policy 95 (summer 1994): 90-103.
Baker, James A.. “A Summon to Leadership.” US Department of State Dispatch 3, 7 (22 Apr 1992): 321-324.
Benson, Sumner. “Can the United States and Russia Reshape the International Strategic Environment?” Comparative Strategy 14 (1995): 21-29.
Betts, Richard K. and Thomas J. Christensen. “China: Getting the Questions Right.” The National Interest (Winter 2000-2001): 17.
Brown, Michael E.. “The Flawed Logic of NATO Expansion.” Survival 37, 1 (Spring 1995): 34-52.
Bush, George. “Toward a New World Order.” US Department of State Dispatch (17 Sep 1990): 91-94.
Carney, James. “Our New Best Friend?” Times (27 May 2002): 34-37.
Caryl, Christian and Michael Meyer. “The Bush and Putin Encore.” Newsweek 139, 20 (2002): 34-37.
Chernov, Vladislav. “Significance of the Russian Military Doctrine.” Comparative Strategy 13 (1994): 161-163.
Cohen, William S.. Annual Report to the President and the Congress 1 (Apr 1997): 1-2.
Crock, Stan, Paul Starobin and Catherine Belton. “Putin`s Russia.” Business Week (12 Nov 2001): 51.
Crock, Stan. “From Evil Empire to Strategic Ally.” Business Week (12 Nov 2001): 54.
Easton, David. “An Approach to the Analysis of Political System.” World Politics 9 (Apr 1957): 283-284.
Fritsche, Klous. “Russia Refocuses on China.” Aussenpolitik 46 (Ⅳ 1995): 378.
Huntington, Samuel P.. “The Clash of Civilizations?” Foreign Affairs 72, 3 (1993): 22-49.
Huntington, Samuel P.. “The Erosion of American National Interests.” Foreign Affairs 5, 76 (1997): 30.
Kissinger, Henry A.. “Beware: A Threat Abroad,” Newsweek (17 Jun 1996): 22.
Krauthammer, Charles. “The Unipolar Moment.” Foreign Affairs 70, 1 (Winter 1990-1): 23-33.
Kristol, Irving. “What is a Neo-Conservative?” Newsweek (19 Jan 1976): 87.
Layne, Christopher. “The Unipolar Illusion - Why New Great Power Will Rise.” International Security (Spring 1993): 5-51.
Lepingwell, John W. R.. “START II and the Politics of Arms Control in Russia.” International Security 20, 2 (1995): 87-88.
NATO’s Sixteen Nations 36, 7 (Dec 1991): 58-62.
Nikitenko, Evgeny G.. “Russia’s Role, Allies and Threats in the New Eurasian World.” Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy (Jun 1998): 10.
Nikolai, Sokov. “Foreign Policy Under Putin: Pro-Western Pragmatism Might Be a Greater Challenge to the West.” Policy Memo Series 101 (Jan 2000): 1-3.
Orttung, Robert W.. “Duma Elections Bolster Leftist Opposition.” Transition 2, 4 (23 Feb 1996): 7.
Pipes, Richard. “Is Russia Still an Enemy?” Foreign Affairs 5, 76 (1997): 68-70.
Pushkov, Alexei K.. “Russia and America: The Honeymoon’s Over.” Foreign Policy 93 (winter 1993-4): 76-89.
Rice, Condoleezza. “Promoting the National Interest.” Foreign Affairs 79, 1 (2000): 45-62.
Rumsfeld, Donald H.. “Transforming the Military.” Foreign Affairs 81, 3 (2002): 20-32.
Rutland, Peter. “Russian Voters Signal Their Displeasure.” Transition 2, 4 (Feb 1996): 5.
Secretary Christopher. “Charting a Transatlantic Agenda for the 21st Century.” US Department of State Dispatch 6 (2 Jun 1995): 2.
Shambaugh, David. “Containment or Engagement in China? Calculating Beijing’s Responses.” International Security 21, 2 (fall 1996): 180-209.
Shlapentokh, Vladimir. “Is ‘Greatness Syndrome’ Eroding?” Washington Quarterly 26, 1 (winter 2002): 134-146.
Stent, Angela. “Russia’s Economic Revolution and the West.” Survial 37, 1 (spring 1995): 121-143.
Stephen, Foye. “Confrontation in Moscow: The Army Bocks Yeltsin for Now.” RFE/RL Research Report 2, 42 (22 Oct 1993): 10-15.
Zhillin, Alexander. “Military Policy and a War of Politicians.” Moscow News 48 (26 Nov 1993): 3.
三、 報紙
“American Opinion.” Wall Street Journal, 16 Sep 1999, p. A9.
“Military Leaves Caution in the Dust.” Washington Post, 23 Mar 2003, p. A18.
“President Bush Addresses the Nation.” Washington Post, 20 Sep 2001, p. A1.
“Putin Calls for More Centralized Power.” Taiwan News, 9 Jul 2000, p. 4.
“Putin Keeps Extremism on Agenda.” The Moscow Times, 6 Nov 2001, p. 14.
“Putin Tries Big Shift in Military Strategy.” The Christian Science Monitor, 2 Aug 2000, p. 1.
“Putin`s Progress.” Wall Street Journal, 16 Nov 2001.
“Shanghai Spirit May Yet Haunt Asia.” Asia Times, 23 Jun 2001.
“The Bush Doctrine. What it means?” Socialist Worker, 4 Oct 2002, p. 8.
“U. S. Charts a High-Tech Strategy for Afghan War.” International Herald Tribune, 3 Oct 2001, p. 1.
Arkin, William M. “Secret Plan Outlines the Unthinkable.” Los Angeles Times, 10 Mar 2002, p. 10.
Chen, Edwin. “Bush Close to Quitting ABM Treaty.” The China Post, 13 Dec 2001, p. 2.
Cottrell, Robert. “Putin`s Wager.” The Financial Times, 21May 2002, p. 14.
Feifer, Gregory. “Putin`s Foreign Policy a Private Affair.” The Moscow Times, 2 Apr 2002, p. 2.
Heslin, Sheila N.. “The New Pipeline Politics.” New York Times, 10 Nov 1997, p. A31.
Hiatt, Fred. “Yeltsin: U. S. Likes to ‘Dictate’.” Washington Post, 26 Jan 1993, p. A12.
Ingram, Judith. “Russia Defends Self on Iraq Allegations.” Associated Press, 25 Mar 2003.
Mufson, Steven. “In GOP, a Backstage Struggle on China Policy.” Washington Post, 22 Aug 2000, p. A10.
Mufson, Steven. “President Pledges Defense of Taiwan.” Washington Post, 26 Apr 2001, p. A1.
Mufson, Steven. “U. S. – Japan Accord Fears.” Washington Post, 19 Apr 1996, p. A28.
Myers, Steven Lee. “Powell and Putin Say Iraq Rift Is Mended, and Then Disagree.” New York Times, 15 May 2003, p. A24.
Pincus, Walter. “Expanded Nuclear Arms Reserve Eyed.” Washington Post, 9 Jan 2002, p. A4.
Pomfret, John. “U.S. Now a ‘Threat’ in China’s Eyes.” Washington Post, 15 Nov 2000, p. 1.
Richter, Paul. “U.S. Works Up Plan for Using Nuclear Arms.” Los Angeles Times, 9 Mar 2002, p. 1.
Safire, William. “Putin’s China Card.” New York Times, 18 Jun 2001, p. A29.
Schmetzer, Uli. “Russia, China Find Common Foreign U.S..” Chicago Tribune, 26 Apr 1996, p. 3.
Sipress, Alan. “U. S., Russia Recast Their Relationship.” Washington Post, 4 Oct 2001, p. A1.
Taylor, Paul. “NATO Invokes Its Mutual Defense Clause over Attacks.” Reuters, 3 Oct 2001.
四、 網站資料
“A National Security Strategy for a New Century.” White House, 5 Jan 2000, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/nss9912.htm.
“Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2002.” U.S. Department of Defense, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2002/ d20020712china.pdf.
“Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States.” FAS, 15 Jul 1998, http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/bm-threat.htm.
“Joint Declaration on New U.S. – Russian Relationship.” U.S. Department of State’s Office of International Information Programs, 24 May 2002, http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/arms/02052447.htm.
“National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction.” White House, 11 Dec 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20021211-8.html.
“NATO’s Strategic Concept.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/resources/nato.htm.。
“President Bush Delivers Graduation Speech at West Point.” White House, 1 Jun 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020601-3.html.
“President Bush, President Putin Announce New Energy Dialogue.” White House, 24 May 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-8.html.
“President Bush, Russian President Putin Sign Nuclear Arms Treaty.” White House, 24 May 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-10.html.
“President Delivers State of the Union Address.” White House, 29 Jan 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html.
“President to Declare ‘Freedom at War with Fear’.” White House, 20 Sep 2001, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-4.html.
“Quadrennial Defense Review Report.” U.S. Department of Defense, 30 Sep 2001, http://www.pdgs.org.ar/Archivo/d0000134.htm.
“Republican Platform 2000- Renewing America’s Purpose.” The American Partisan, http://www.american-partisan.com/resources/parties/republicans/platform.htm.
“Response to Russian Statement on U.S. ABM Treaty Withdrawal.” White House, 13 Dec 2001, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011213-8.html.
“Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review.” U.S. Department of Defense, 9 Jan 2002, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan2002/t01092002_t0109npr.html.
“Text of Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.” White House, 24 May 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-3.html.
“The National Security Implications of the Economic Relationship between the United States and China.” U.S.-China Security Review Commission, 2002, http://www.uscc.gov/anrp02.htm.
“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html.
“U.S.-Russian Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions.” U.S. Department of State’s Office of International Information Programs, 24 May 2002, http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/arms/02052441.htm.
“With Us or Against Us?” BBC, 25 Aug 2002, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2212647.stm.
Chinyaeva, Elena. “Russia’s Economy: An uncertain success.” The Jamestown Foundation 8, 1 (31 Jan 2002), http://www.jamestown.org/pubs/view/pri_008_001_004.htm.
Cohen, Ariel. “Strategic Cooperation Key to U.S.-Russia Summit.” The Heritage Foundation, 15 Nov 2002, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/EM839.cfm.
Cohen, Ariel. “The Primakov Doctrine: Russia’s Zero-sum Game with United States.” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/library/categories/forpol/fyi167.html.
Garamone, Jim. “U.S., Japan Announce Defense Guidelines.” Defense Link, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Sep1997/n09261997_9709263.html.
Smith, M. A.. “Russian Thinking on European Security After Kosovo.” Conflict Studies Research Center, Aug 1999, http://www.ppc.pims.org/Projects/CSRC/new/f65-mas-compl.htm.
Spencer, Jack. “An Axis of Evil? No Question.” The Heritage Foundation, 21 Feb 2002, http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed022102.cfm.
Tanks, David. “National Missile Defense-Policy Issues and Technological Capabilities.” IF-PA, Jul 2000, http://www.ifpa.org/publications/nmd_dwnload_main.htm.
參、 俄文部分
一、  書籍
Воронцова, Т., Данилова А. [法朗措法, 達尼洛法; Vorontsova, T., Danilova A.]. Америка: Взгляд из России. До и после 11 сентября [911事件前後的美國:俄羅斯觀點; Amerika: Vzglyag iz Rossii. Do i posle 11 sentyabrya]. Москва: Институт Фонда Общественное мнение, 2001.
Гайдар, Е. [蓋達爾; Gaydar, Ye.]. Дни поражений и побед [那些失敗與勝利的日子; Dni porazheniy i pobed]. Москва: Вагриус, 1997.
Иванов, Игорь Сергеевич [伊凡諾夫, 伊格爾•謝爾蓋耶夫; Ivanov, Igor’ Sergeyevich]. Новая Российская дипломатия [俄羅斯新外交; Novaya Rossiyskaya diplomatiya]. Москва: Олма-Пресс, 2001.
Краснов, В. Н.[可拉斯諾夫; Krasnov V. N.]. Россия: партии-выборы-власть [俄羅斯:政黨-選舉-權力; Rossiya: partii-vybory-vlast’]. Москва: Обозреватель, 1996.
Медведев, Рой [梅德維傑夫, 羅伊; Medvedev, Roy]. Время Путина [普欽時代; Vremya Putina]. Москва: Фолио, 2001.
二、  期刊
“Государственный визит президента Ельцина в США.” [葉里欽總統到美國的官方訪問; Gosudarstvennyy vizit prezidenta Yel’tsina v SSHA] Дипломатический вестник [外交公報;Diplomaticheskiy vestnik] 13-14 (Jul 1992): 3-17.
“Дискуссия о том, какой быть внешней политике России.” [關於俄羅斯對外政策走向的討論; Diskussiya o tom, kakoy byt’ vneshney politike Rossii] Международная жизнь [國際生活;Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’] 2 (1993): 5-22.
“Кэмп-Дэвидская декларация президента Буша и президента Ельцина о новых отношениях.” [布希總統和葉里欽總統關於新關係的大衛營宣言; Kemp-Devidskaya deklaratsiya prezidenta Busha i prezidenta Yel’tsina o novyh otnosheniyah] Дипломатический вестник [外交公報;Diplomaticheskiy vestnik] 4-5 (Mar 1992): 12.
“Театр военных действий в Москве.” [Teatr voyennyh deystviy v Moskve; 莫斯哥劇院武裝行動] Новое Время [Novoye Vremya; 新時代] 44 (2002): 6-10.
Арбатов, А. [阿爾巴托夫; Arbatov, A.]. “Россия безопасность страны в 90х годах.” [俄羅斯在90年代的國家安全; Rossiya bezopasnost’ strany v 90h godah] МЕМО [世界經濟與國際關係;MEMO] 8-9 (1994): 13.
Белоусов, А.Р. [別拉巫所夫; Belousov, A. R.]. “Эффективный экономический рост в 2001-2010 гг.: условия и ограничения.” [2000-2010年經濟發展綱要:規則與限制; Effektivnyy ekonomicheskiy rost v 2001-2010 gg.:usloviya i ogranicheniya] Проблемы прогнозирования [預測雜誌; Problemy prognozirovaniya] 1 (2001): c27.
Дубнов, Вадим [杜伯諾夫, 伐金; Dubcdv, Vadim]. “Чечня после «Норд-Оста». Кремль объявляет новую войну.” [「東北」劇院事件後續車臣情勢:克宮再度宣戰; Chechnya posle «Nord-Osta» Kreml` ob`yavlyayet novuyu voynu] Новое Время [Novoye Vremya; 新時代] 46 (2002): 4-5.
Скосырев, Владимир [斯枸徙烈夫, 孚拉基米爾; Skosyrev, Vladimir]. “Русский с китайцем - братья по расчёту.” [Russkiy s kitaytsem - brat’ya po raschyotu; 俄羅斯人與中國人 - 親兄弟明算帳] Время [Vremya; 時代] 108 (15 Jul 2000).
三、  報紙
“Американцы обвиняют в своих военных неудачах российское оружие.” [美國把自己戰爭的失敗怪罪到俄羅斯的武器上; Amerikantsy obvinyayut v svoih voyennyh neudachah rossiyskoye oruzhiye] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 25 Mar 2003, p. 1.
“Б. Клинтон в Москве: день второй.” [柯林頓在莫斯科: 第二天; B. Klinton v Moskve: den’ vtoroy] Правда [真理報;Pravda], 15 Jan 1994, pp. 1-3.
“Владимир Путин обнародовал свою программу.” [普欽公布自己的競選綱領; Vladimir Putin obnarodoval svoyu programmu] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 30 Dec 1999, p. 1.
“Гражданский брак «Единства» и «Отечества».” [「團結聯盟」和「祖國聯盟」的聯姻; Grazhdanskiy brak ‘Yedinstva’ i ‘Otechestva’] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 12 Jul 2001, p. 1.
“Минимум последствий.” [最少的結果; Minimum posledstviy] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 30 Oct 2001, p. 5.
“Основные положения военной докрины Российской Федерации.” [俄羅斯聯邦軍事準則基本原則; Osnovnyye polozheniya voyennoy dokriny Rossiysoy Federatsii] Российские вести [俄羅斯公報;Rossiyskiye vesti], 8 Nov 1993, pp. 1-2.
“Открытое писъмо Владимира Путина к российским избирателям.” [普欽在致選民的公開信; Otkrytoye pis`mo Vladimira Putina k rossiyskim izbiratelyam] Комсомольская правда [共青團真理報;Komsomol’skaya pravda], 25 Feb 2000, p. 3.
“Пересадка в органах.” [機關人事調動; Peresadka v organah] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 29 Mar 2001, p. 1.
“Плановая ошибка.” [計劃性錯誤;Planovaya oshibka] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 14 Dec 2001, p. 1.
“Помощь России с экономит Америке миллиарды долларов, так утверждает Президент Клинтон.” [柯林頓總統確認經援俄羅斯; Pomosh’ Rossii s yekonomit Amerike milliardy dollarov, tak utverzhdayet Prezident Klinton] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 26 Mar 1993, p. 1.
“Путин пригласил иностранных инвесторов заходитъ.” [普欽歡迎國外投資者進來投資; Putin priglacil inostrannyh investorov zahodit`] Комсомольская правда [共青團真理報;Komsomol’skaya pravda], 31 Oct 2001, p. 3.
“Россия вооружает пехоту ядерным оружием.” [俄羅斯使步兵裝備核武器; Rossiya vooruzhaet pehotu yadernym oruzhiyem] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 30 Apr 1999, p. 2.
“Россия и Китай объединились по вопросу ПРО: Визит Путина в Пекин показал, что взаимодействие двух стран может сбалансировать американские стремления к гегемонизму в мире.” [俄羅斯與中國對反飛彈防禦問題的立場一致:普欽走訪北京顯示兩國互動可以制衡美國稱霸世界的企圖; Possiya i Kitay ob’yedinilis’ po voprosu PRO: Vizit Putina v Pekin pokazal, chto vzaimodeystviye dvuh stran mozhet sbalansirovat’ amerikanskiye stremleniya k gegemonizmu v mire] Независимая Газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 19 Jul 2000, pp. 1-6.
“Россия может потерятъ 700 миллионов долларов. Если не выведет войска из стран Балтии к 6 Октября.” [俄羅斯可能損失7億美元,如果不在10月6日以前從波羅的海國家撤軍; Rossiya mozhet poteryat’ 700 millionov dollarov. Yesli ne vyvedet voyska iz stran Baltii k 6 Oktyabrya] Известия[消息報;Izvestiya], Aug 26 1993, p. 3.
“Россия получит международная помощь только под реформы.” [俄羅斯只能在改革之下才能接受國際的援助; Rossiya poluchit mezhdunarodnaya pomosh’ tol’ko pod reformy] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 24 Apr 1992, p. 1.
“Силовая реформа.” [強力改革; Silovaya reforma] Российская газета [俄羅斯報;Rossiyskaya gazeta], 12 Mar 2003, p. 3.
Арбатов, Алексей Г.. [阿爾巴托夫, 阿列克謝依; Arbatov, Aleksey G..] “Ядерная дилемма военной доктрины .” [軍事準則之核子難題; Yadernaya dilemma voyennoy doktriny] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 3 Dec 1993, p. 3.
Баталов, Эдуард и Виктор Кременюк [巴塔洛夫, 愛德華和維克托•克列梅紐克; Batalov, Yeduard i Viktor Kremenyuk]. “Россия и США: Друзъя? Соперники? Партнеры?” [俄羅斯與美國: 朋友?對手?夥伴?; Rossiya i SHA: Druz’ya?Soperniki?Partnery?] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 6 Oct 2001, p. 7.
Громыко, Алексей [葛羅米柯, 阿列克謝依; Gromyko, Aleksey]. “У России пока нет ясной концепции националъных интересов.” [俄羅斯還沒有明確的國家利益構想; U Rossii poka net yasnoy kontseptsii natsional`nyh interesov] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 19 Sep 1996, p. 5.
Козырев, Андрей [科濟列夫, 安德列伊; Kozyrev, Andrey]. “Преображенная Россия в новом мире.” [在新世界中轉了型的俄羅斯; Preobrazhennaya Rossiya v novom mire] Известия [消息報;Izvestiia,], 2 Jan 1992, p. 3.
Петровская, Юлия [彼得羅夫斯卡雅, 尤利亞; Petrovskaya, Yuliya]. “Буш впервые столкнулся с фрондой Москвы.” [布希初次與俄羅斯產生產生衝突; Bush vpervyye stolknulsya s frondoy Moskvy] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 26 Mar 2003, p. 1.
Путин [普欽; Putin]. “Россия на рубеже тысячелетий.” [千年之交的俄羅斯; Rossiya na rubezhe tysyacheletiy] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 30 Dec 1999, p. 1.
Родин, Иван и Марина Волкова [羅金, 伊凡和瑪利納•伐蔻琺; Rodin, Ivan i Marina Volkova]. “Большая политическая игра в Думе закончилась.” [杜馬內更大的政治遊戲結束了; Bol`shaya politicheskaya igra v Dume zakonchilas`] Незави&#1
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
89263011
91
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892630111
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王定士zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳怡君zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳怡君zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2002en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 17:44:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 17:44:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 17:44:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0892630111en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33629-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 89263011zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文試圖透過戰略三角政治研究途徑和克里姆林宮政治研究途徑,探討普欽時期的俄羅斯對美國政策。
蘇聯解體後,俄羅斯對外政策路線的走向,由葉里欽執政初期的一面倒向以美國為首的親西方之大西洋主義政策路線,轉向為葉里欽執政後期的拉攏中國抗衡美國的東西平衡對外政策路線;到了普欽執政時期,又重新定位為與美國進行戰略和解,進而進行戰略合作的全方位對外政策路線, 以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致的戰略羈絆之制約。本文試圖探討,驅動普欽時期此一俄羅斯對美國政策路線轉變的內外在因素。
本論文認為,普欽執政期間,俄羅斯對美政策之形成,乃是在承襲葉里欽對外政策的遺緒,在普欽的強勢領導之下,俄羅斯之決策菁英,以俄羅斯的國家安全及國家利益為訴求,援引包括戰略三角互動、美國的政策與做為、俄羅斯經濟發展與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內外在環境因素,作為其政策辯論的依據,透過克里姆林宮政治的互動形塑而成。
上述假設命題可以引申出下列邏輯相關的子命題:

一•普欽的對美政策,受到包括戰略三角互動與美國的政策與做為等俄羅斯外在環境因素之影響形塑而成。

1999年普欽上台前夕,科索佛戰爭及北約戰略新概念的提出,加深了俄羅斯的安全疑慮;而2001年4月,美中軍機擦撞事件,則加深了中美關係的裂痕;此一發展促使俄中戰略夥伴關係趨於密切。2001年6月中國主導「上海合作組織」的成立,以及7月俄中睦鄰友好合作條約的簽訂,就是此一發展邏輯的結果。然而,隨著中國在□海地區爭霸戰中影響力的增長,有關中國威脅論的聲音,也在俄羅斯安全決策階層引起越來越多的迴響。而此一發展,則促使俄羅斯尋求與美國進行戰略和解,以防範中國之威脅。另一方面,蘇聯解體後,中國勢力快速崛起,美國不再視俄羅斯為其戰略對手,轉而防範中國之威脅。911事件之後,美國面臨反恐之戰以及分散油源之需求,小布希總統調整了對俄政策,讓普欽得以順利與美國進行戰略和解;從而,普欽得以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。

二•普欽的對美政策,受到包括經濟發展考量與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內在環境因素之影響形塑而成。

面對俄羅斯國內的經濟窘境,普欽認為,唯有與美國進行戰略和解,才能儘快加入世界貿易組織、增加歐美的投資和援助、減輕外債負擔、從而促進經濟發展。另一方面,普欽的強勢領導地位以及務實的政治手腕,使得普欽得以操控國內政治生態的互動,主導俄羅斯國家安全概念的重新定位;從而,得以順利推動全方位對外政策路線,與美國進行戰略和解,藉以擺脫葉里欽後期所建立的俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this study is aimed at exploring Russia’s policy toward the United States under Bladimir Putin, 2000-2003. The strategic triangle politics approach and the Kremlin politics approach are applied in this study.
After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s line of foreign policy had been shifted from the one-sided pro-Western Atlanticism in the early stage of Boris Yel’tsin’s administration toward the East-West balanced strategy, attempting to draw China on the same front against the United States, in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime. After Putin had come to power, Russia’s line of foreign policy was reoriented as a comprehensive one, engaging in strategic reconciliation and strategic cooperation with the U.S. and, consequently, getting rid of the strategic entanglement resulted from the establishment of the partnership of strategic coordination between China and Russia. Against this background, this study attempts to investigate the internal and external factors that drive this shift in Russia’s line of foreign policy under Putin.
The hypothesis of this study is as follows: Shadowed by Yel’tsin’s legacy of foreign policy and forged under Putin’s strong leadership, Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been shaped by the interaction of Kremlin politics, engaged by Russian decision-making elites, who appeal to Russia’s national security and national interests in their policy debates, referring to Russia’s external and internal factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics, the US policies and conduct, Russia’s economic developments, and domestic political ecological changes in Russia. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically consequential sub-propositions:

1•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s external factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics and the US policies and conduct.

In the spring of 1999, on the eve of Putin’s coming to power, the breakout of War in Kosovo and the pronunciation of NATO’s new Strategic Concept had created serious concerns for Russians about their national security. And in April 2001, the collision of US-Chinese military aircrafts above the South China Sea had deepen the Sino-US fissures. Consequently, the development of these events had pushed closer the Partnership of Russo-Chinese Strategic Coordination. As a result, the creation of Chinese-initiated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June 2001 and the conclusion of the Treaty of Good-Neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia in the following month were only a logical outcome.
However, accompanying the growth of China’s influence in the area of Caspian Sea, the voice of “China threat” has received more and more attention in the circle of Russia’s national security decision-makers. These developments, in turn, had forced Russia to search for strategic reconciliation with the United States in order to prevent China from becoming a threat. On the other hand, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rapid rise of China’s influence, the United States no longer treat Russia as a strategic rival; instead, they shift their efforts to prevent China from becoming a threat. In the wake of the terrorist attack on 11 September 2001, in order to meet the needs for engaging campaigns against terrorism and for deconcentrating the sources of petroleum, President Bush has readjusted US policy toward Russian. As a consequence, these shifts in US policy provide Putin with a golden opportunity to engage in strategic reconciliation with the United States and thus get rid of strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic coordination with China.

2•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s internal factors, such as the economic development and the political ecological changes in Russia.

In the face of Russia’s economic predicament, in Putin’s opinion, the only way to promote economic development is the strategic reconciliation with the United States, which will accelerate the process for Russia to obtain the access to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in turn to gain the access to investments and financial assistance from the West and to lessen the burden of foreign loans. In addition, with his strong leadership and his pragmatic political skills, Putin has been able to maneuver the interaction of domestic political econlogies in favor of the reorientation of Russia’s concept of national security. As a result, Putin has been able to forge a comprehensive line of foreign policy and, accordingly, to conduct strategic reconciliation with the United States. Consequently, he has been able to get rid of the strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic Coordination with China in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄



摘要…………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ
目錄…………………………………………………………………………Ⅳ
圖表目錄……………………………………………………………………Ⅵ



第一章 緒論
第一節 研究目的與研究動機…………………………………………1
第二節 假設命題與研究架構…………………………………………2
第三節 文獻述評與研究方法…………………………………………5



第二章 葉里欽時期俄羅斯對美政策的遺緒
第一節 葉里欽初期的俄羅斯對美政策………………………………17
第二節 葉里欽後期俄羅斯對美政策的轉變…………………………24
一、俄羅斯外交政策的階段性調整……………………………………25
二、俄羅斯對外政策的新措施…………………………………………29
第三節 小結……………………………………………………………41



第三章 普欽對美政策之發展及其戰略目標
第一節 裁減核武問題…………………………………………………44
第二節 北約東擴問題…………………………………………………54
第三節 恐怖主義問題…………………………………………………59
第四節 經貿問題………………………………………………………64
第五節 小結……………………………………………………………70



第四章 普欽時期俄羅斯的國家安全概念及其對外政策方針
第一節 普欽時期俄羅斯國家安全概念………………………………73
一、俄羅斯聯邦國家安全概念…………………………………………74
二、俄羅斯聯邦軍事準則………………………………………………77
第二節 普欽時期俄羅斯對外政策方針………………………………85
一、俄羅斯聯邦對外政策概念…………………………………………85
第三節 小結……………………………………………………………90



第五章 普欽對美國政策的外在環境因素
第一節 俄羅斯對美政策的戰略三角政治互動因素…………………92
一、北約東擴的的衝擊…………………………………………………93
二、俄中戰略關係的衝擊………………………………………………98
三、□海石油爭霸的衝擊………………………………………………104
第二節 俄羅斯對美政策的美國因素…………………………………110
一、冷戰後美國國家安全概念與對外政策方針………………………110
二、九一一後美國的軍事戰略調整……………………………………117
三、美國對外政策的國內因素…………………………………………122
四、美國對俄羅斯政策的定位…………………………………………127
第三節 小結……………………………………………………………130



第六章 普欽對美國政策的內在環境因素
第一節 俄羅斯對美政策的經濟考量因素……………………………133
一、在外債方面…………………………………………………………135
二、在世界貿易組織方面………………………………………………137
三、在石油方面…………………………………………………………140
四、在投資方面…………………………………………………………142
第二節 俄羅斯對美政策的政治生態因素……………………………144
一、普欽地位穩固有利推動重大政策改革……………………………145
二、普欽順利結合國會多數……………………………………………146
三、普欽全方位掌握國家安全機制……………………………………151
四、普欽強勢領導主導對外政策方針的重新定位……………………154
第三節 小結……………………………………………………………161



第七章 結論………………………………………………………………163



附錄
【附錄一】俄羅斯聯邦對外政策概念……………………………………168
【附錄二】美國小布希總統就恐怖襲擊事件發表電視講話……………187
【附錄三】美國宣布退出ABM條約 ………………………………………188
【附錄四】俄美裁減戰略攻擊性武器條約………………………………190
【附錄五】俄美新型戰略關係聯合宣言…………………………………192



參考書目……………………………………………………………………199

圖 表 目 錄

(一) 圖目錄
圖1-1:戰略三角雙邊關係圖...................................7
圖1-2:開普樓 (Theodore Caplow) 的戰略三角圖................8
圖3-1:俄羅斯石油出口淨值...................................68
圖5-1:□海地區周邊國地圖...................................104
圖5-2:美國「新三位一體」...................................119
圖6-1:俄羅斯外債增長曲線圖.................................135
圖6-2:俄羅斯石油價格增長圖 ................................141
圖6-3:俄羅斯進出口總額 ....................................143
圖6-4:普欽執政的滿意度調查 ................................160


(二) 表目錄
表2-1:1992-93年經援俄羅斯的統計數字 .......................22
表2-2:1993與1995年杜馬選舉 ................................27
表4-1:5個主要核武國家之戰略核武數量比較表..................79
表5-1:美國與各大國的矛盾強度表 ............................113
表5-2:美國「國防四年期總檢」的國防政策目標 ................118
表5-3:美國新「基於能力」的戰略力量方針 ....................120
表6-1:2000年俄羅斯總統選舉結果 ............................145
表6-2:1999年俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉結果一覽表...................148
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892630111en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 普欽zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 小布希zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 全方位對外政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國家安全zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 戰略三角政治zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄美戰略關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 戰略和解zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄中戰略關係zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 俄羅斯對美國政策之研究 - 2000年∼2003年zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考書目zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 壹、 中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 書籍zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Caplow, Theodore.,丁庭宇、章英華譯,權力的遊戲:人際關係中的二對一 (台北:桂冠圖書有限公司,1986)。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lentner, Howard H.,淦克超譯,外交政策分析 (台北:黎明出版社,1979)。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中國現代國際關係研究所,國際戰略與安全形勢國際戰略與安全形勢評估 (北京:時事出版社,2002)。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 尹慶耀,獨立國協研究 (台北:幼獅文化事業公司,1995)。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 戈巴契夫著,譚天譯,俄羅斯的教訓 (台北:貓頭鷹出版社,2001)。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王玉民,社會科學研究方法原理 (台北:紅葉出版社,1994)。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王定士,俄羅斯對中國政策之內外在動因及其侷限1992-2002 (桃園:明耀圖書,2002)。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「普欽嚴詞反擊俄羅斯寡頭」,上海文匯報,2 Sep 2000, p. 2。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「華府學者:911改變美核武策略」,中國時報,10 Mar 2002, p. 7。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「葉里欽時代官員遭撤換」,香港文匯報,31 Mar 2001, p. A6。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「領土若遭威脅 俄可能率先動用核武」,中國時報,19 Oct 1999, p. 13。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「劇院事件落幕 普欽向恐怖活動宣戰」,中國時報,29 Oct 2002, p. 10。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「調查顯示中國人不相信北約誤炸中國大使館」,北京青年報,20 May 1999。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「遭遇中右黨派突襲 痛失杜馬領導地位 俄共近日受重傷」,環球時報,8 Apr 2002, p. 1。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「鮑威爾重申 美不對非核武國家動用核武」,自由時報,17 Mar 2002, p. 9。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王仲春,「二十一世紀中國:從容應對變化中的世界」,大公報,18 Jan 2000, p. A4。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王鳳才,「俄羅斯仍讓人生畏」,解放軍報,22 Nov 2000。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 朱峰,「分析:美國對台軍售政策究竟出現了什麽變化」,中國日報,28 Apr 2001, p. 3。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李慶義,「俄黨派林立 百姓犯難」,中國青年報,14 Jul 1995。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 杜文學、徐俊文,「普欽欲重振俄軍雄風」,中國國防報,11 May 2001, p. 2。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 汪金國、楊恕,「人民觀察:油氣,美反恐怖戰爭的真正目標」,人民日報,13 May 2002, p. 7。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 俞兵,「中俄關係雖熱絡雙方仍爾虞我詐」,中國時報,11 Aug 2000, p. 14。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 夏義善,「『中俄睦鄰友好合作條約』的內涵和意義」,人民日報,18 Jul 2001, p. 7。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 海秀,「俄羅斯欲重振海洋雄風」,中國國防報,16 Aug 2001, p. 3。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 常東,「俄羅斯出了個新共產黨」,環球時報,4 Jul 2002, p. 2。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 閻學通,「歷史的繼續 - 冷戰後的主要國際政治矛盾」,大公報,19 Jul 2000, p. A3。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 謝榮,「俄國防新思維仰仗『鯊魚』和『白楊』(上)」,中國青年報,5 Jul 2002。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 關中,「九一一事件對美國外交政策的影響」,中央日報,17 Oct 2001, p. 9。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 四、 網站資料zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「中華人民共和國和俄羅斯聯邦北京宣言」,新華社,18 Jul 2000, http://202.130.245.40/chinese/2000/Aug/1775.htm。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「北大西洋公約組織」,地球村,http://world99.myetang.com/zz/by.htm。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「北約大動干戈 俄羅斯國備感威脅」,中時電子報,23 Apr 1999, http://forums.chinatimes.com.tw/report/kosovo/88042303.htm。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「北約新戰略概念」,新華社,14 Dec 2000, http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/202.84.17.73/mil/htm/20001214/267136.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「布希下令國防部兩年內完成基本飛彈防禦部署」,中央社,19 Dec 2002, http://news.pchome.com.tw/internation/cna/20021218/index-20021218234710010448.html。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「田春生:俄羅斯經濟增幅減緩,但運行平穩」,中國網,9 Jan 2003, http://202.130.245.40/chinese/zhuanti/259233.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄成爲世界第一大產油國」,新華社,22 Mar 2002, http://www.china.com.cn/chinese/kuaixun/122158.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄羅斯:新總統和新門檻」,http://www.51cg.com/chinafly/news008.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄羅斯入世之路有多長」,新華社,17 Jul 2002, http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2002-07/17/content_485478.htm。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄羅斯今天成立新共產黨 前蘇共領導人孫子出山」,上海熱線,1 Jul 2002, http://news.online.sh.cn/news/gb/content/2002-07/01/content_383620.htm。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄羅斯今年共付給世界貨幣基金會27億美元的外債」,國際貿易局,19 Nov 2001, http://www.trade.gov.tw/richspeed/speedcontent.asp?bbb=38005&aaa=c033&ccc=56。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄羅斯在反恐怖分子行動中要做什麽」,大紀元,27 Sep 2001, http://dajiyuan.com/gb/1/9/27/n136752.htm。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「俄羅斯將賣珠寶還外債」,新華社,19 Aug 2002, http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2002-08/19/content_529738.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「美國部署攔截導彈引起盟邦疑慮 」,中央社,18 Dec 2002, http://news.pchome.com.tw/internation/cna/20021219/index-20021219093252010026.html。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「美將採核戰毀滅先發制人攻擊嚇阻恐怖主義」,中央社,10 Jun 2002, http://news.pchome.com.tw/internation/cna/20020610/index-20020610174339010226.html。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「推動軍事改革 普欽更換強力部門領導層」,新華社,29 Apr 2001, http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2001-04/29/content_42431.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「普欽:把俄美關係推向衝突沒有建設性眼光」,中央社商情網,3 Dec 2002, http://fnnews.yam.com/cnafn/china/news/200212/2002120318321702.html。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「普欽在人質危機中表現出色 俄羅斯姑娘想嫁普欽」,資訊時報,2 Nov 2002, http://news.sohu.com/72/48/news204064872.shtml。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「普欽批准新的俄羅斯聯邦國家安全概念」,新華社,11 Jan 2000, http://rainboat.myrice.com/military/stratgy28.html。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 「普欽呼籲美國取消對俄貿易歧視性政策」,新華社,25 May 2002, http://61.141.194.122/gb/content/2002-05/25/content_921012.htm。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 貳、 英文部分zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Buch, Claudia M., Ralph P. Heinrich, Lusine Lusinyan, and Mechthild Schrooten. Russia’s Debt Crisis and the Unofficial Economy. Kiel Institute of World Economics, Apr 2002.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bush, George. National Security Strategy of the United States, 1990-1991. Washington: Brassey`s US, 1990.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bush, George. Security Strategy for the 1990s. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Office of Public Communication, Editorial Division.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Davis, Jacquelyn K. and Michael J. Sweeney. Strategic Paradigm 2025: US Security Planning for a New Era. Dulles, VA: Brassey`s, 1999.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Diamond, Larry. Developing Democracy. Baltimore, Md.: John Hopkins University Press, 1999.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dittmer, Lowell. Power, Strategy, and Security. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Easton, David. A Framework for Political Analysis. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, 1965.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Flournoy, Michelle A.. QDR 2001 : Strategy-Driven Choices for America`s Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Forsythe, Rosemarie. The Politics of Oil in the Caucasus and Central Asia. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Galeotti, Mark. The Age of Anxiety : Security and Politics in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia. New York: Longman, 1995.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grayson, George W.. Strange Bedfellows: NATO Marches East. New York: University Press of America, 1999.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lasater, Martin L.. The New Pacific Community: U.S. Strategic Options in Asia. Boulder, col.: Westview Press, 1996.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lo, Bobo. Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy. Blackwell, Sep 2002.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Morgenthau, H. J.. Politics among Nations : The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement. Washington, D.C.: The White House, Feb 1993-1995.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nosov, Mikhail. Challenges to the Strategic Balance in East Asia on the Eve of the 21st Century: A View from Russia. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, 1997.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nye Jr., Joseph S.. Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. New York: Basic Books, 1990.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nye Jr., Joseph S.. The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s only Superpower can’t go it alone. New York: Oxford University, 2002.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Poland, James M.. Understanding Terrorism: Group, Strategies and Responses. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, 1988.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rosenau, James N., Kenneth W. Thompson and Gavin Boyd. World Politics: An Introduction. New York: Free Press, 1976.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Russian Foreign Policy Since 1990. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1995.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Solomon, Richard H. ed.. The China Factor: Sino - American Relations and the Global Scene. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1981.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Spanier, John W.. Games Nations Play : Analyzing International Politics. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston/Praeger, 1978.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Spanier, John. Games Nations Play. Washington D. C.: C.Q. Press, 1987.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Steinfels, Peter. The New Conservatives: The Man Who Are Changing America’s Politics. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tismaneanu, Vladimir ed.. Political Culture and Civil Society in Russia and the New States of Eurasia. Armonk: M. E. Sharpe, 1995.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、 期刊zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “To Russia for Love.” The Economist (18-24 May 2002): 11.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Baker, James A.. “A Summon to Leadership.” US Department of State Dispatch 3, 7 (22 Apr 1992): 321-324.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Betts, Richard K. and Thomas J. Christensen. “China: Getting the Questions Right.” The National Interest (Winter 2000-2001): 17.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pipes, Richard. “Is Russia Still an Enemy?” Foreign Affairs 5, 76 (1997): 68-70.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pushkov, Alexei K.. “Russia and America: The Honeymoon’s Over.” Foreign Policy 93 (winter 1993-4): 76-89.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rice, Condoleezza. “Promoting the National Interest.” Foreign Affairs 79, 1 (2000): 45-62.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stent, Angela. “Russia’s Economic Revolution and the West.” Survial 37, 1 (spring 1995): 121-143.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stephen, Foye. “Confrontation in Moscow: The Army Bocks Yeltsin for Now.” RFE/RL Research Report 2, 42 (22 Oct 1993): 10-15.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zhillin, Alexander. “Military Policy and a War of Politicians.” Moscow News 48 (26 Nov 1993): 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 三、 報紙zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “American Opinion.” Wall Street Journal, 16 Sep 1999, p. A9.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Military Leaves Caution in the Dust.” Washington Post, 23 Mar 2003, p. A18.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “President Bush Addresses the Nation.” Washington Post, 20 Sep 2001, p. A1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Putin Calls for More Centralized Power.” Taiwan News, 9 Jul 2000, p. 4.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Putin Keeps Extremism on Agenda.” The Moscow Times, 6 Nov 2001, p. 14.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Putin Tries Big Shift in Military Strategy.” The Christian Science Monitor, 2 Aug 2000, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Putin`s Progress.” Wall Street Journal, 16 Nov 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Shanghai Spirit May Yet Haunt Asia.” Asia Times, 23 Jun 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “The Bush Doctrine. What it means?” Socialist Worker, 4 Oct 2002, p. 8.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “U. S. Charts a High-Tech Strategy for Afghan War.” International Herald Tribune, 3 Oct 2001, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Arkin, William M. “Secret Plan Outlines the Unthinkable.” Los Angeles Times, 10 Mar 2002, p. 10.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen, Edwin. “Bush Close to Quitting ABM Treaty.” The China Post, 13 Dec 2001, p. 2.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cottrell, Robert. “Putin`s Wager.” The Financial Times, 21May 2002, p. 14.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Feifer, Gregory. “Putin`s Foreign Policy a Private Affair.” The Moscow Times, 2 Apr 2002, p. 2.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Heslin, Sheila N.. “The New Pipeline Politics.” New York Times, 10 Nov 1997, p. A31.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hiatt, Fred. “Yeltsin: U. S. Likes to ‘Dictate’.” Washington Post, 26 Jan 1993, p. A12.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ingram, Judith. “Russia Defends Self on Iraq Allegations.” Associated Press, 25 Mar 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mufson, Steven. “In GOP, a Backstage Struggle on China Policy.” Washington Post, 22 Aug 2000, p. A10.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mufson, Steven. “President Pledges Defense of Taiwan.” Washington Post, 26 Apr 2001, p. A1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mufson, Steven. “U. S. – Japan Accord Fears.” Washington Post, 19 Apr 1996, p. A28.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Myers, Steven Lee. “Powell and Putin Say Iraq Rift Is Mended, and Then Disagree.” New York Times, 15 May 2003, p. A24.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pincus, Walter. “Expanded Nuclear Arms Reserve Eyed.” Washington Post, 9 Jan 2002, p. A4.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pomfret, John. “U.S. Now a ‘Threat’ in China’s Eyes.” Washington Post, 15 Nov 2000, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Richter, Paul. “U.S. Works Up Plan for Using Nuclear Arms.” Los Angeles Times, 9 Mar 2002, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Safire, William. “Putin’s China Card.” New York Times, 18 Jun 2001, p. A29.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schmetzer, Uli. “Russia, China Find Common Foreign U.S..” Chicago Tribune, 26 Apr 1996, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sipress, Alan. “U. S., Russia Recast Their Relationship.” Washington Post, 4 Oct 2001, p. A1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Taylor, Paul. “NATO Invokes Its Mutual Defense Clause over Attacks.” Reuters, 3 Oct 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 四、 網站資料zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “President Bush Delivers Graduation Speech at West Point.” White House, 1 Jun 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020601-3.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “President Bush, President Putin Announce New Energy Dialogue.” White House, 24 May 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-8.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “President Bush, Russian President Putin Sign Nuclear Arms Treaty.” White House, 24 May 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-10.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “President Delivers State of the Union Address.” White House, 29 Jan 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “President to Declare ‘Freedom at War with Fear’.” White House, 20 Sep 2001, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-4.html.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Response to Russian Statement on U.S. ABM Treaty Withdrawal.” White House, 13 Dec 2001, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011213-8.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review.” U.S. Department of Defense, 9 Jan 2002, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan2002/t01092002_t0109npr.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Text of Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.” White House, 24 May 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-3.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “The National Security Implications of the Economic Relationship between the United States and China.” U.S.-China Security Review Commission, 2002, http://www.uscc.gov/anrp02.htm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “U.S.-Russian Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions.” U.S. Department of State’s Office of International Information Programs, 24 May 2002, http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/arms/02052441.htm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “With Us or Against Us?” BBC, 25 Aug 2002, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2212647.stm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chinyaeva, Elena. “Russia’s Economy: An uncertain success.” The Jamestown Foundation 8, 1 (31 Jan 2002), http://www.jamestown.org/pubs/view/pri_008_001_004.htm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cohen, Ariel. “Strategic Cooperation Key to U.S.-Russia Summit.” The Heritage Foundation, 15 Nov 2002, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/EM839.cfm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cohen, Ariel. “The Primakov Doctrine: Russia’s Zero-sum Game with United States.” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/library/categories/forpol/fyi167.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Garamone, Jim. “U.S., Japan Announce Defense Guidelines.” Defense Link, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Sep1997/n09261997_9709263.html.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Smith, M. A.. “Russian Thinking on European Security After Kosovo.” Conflict Studies Research Center, Aug 1999, http://www.ppc.pims.org/Projects/CSRC/new/f65-mas-compl.htm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Spencer, Jack. “An Axis of Evil? No Question.” The Heritage Foundation, 21 Feb 2002, http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed022102.cfm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tanks, David. “National Missile Defense-Policy Issues and Technological Capabilities.” IF-PA, Jul 2000, http://www.ifpa.org/publications/nmd_dwnload_main.htm.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參、 俄文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、  書籍zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Воронцова, Т., Данилова А. [法朗措法, 達尼洛法; Vorontsova, T., Danilova A.]. Америка: Взгляд из России. До и после 11 сентября [911事件前後的美國:俄羅斯觀點; Amerika: Vzglyag iz Rossii. Do i posle 11 sentyabrya]. Москва: Институт Фонда Общественное мнение, 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Гайдар, Е. [蓋達爾; Gaydar, Ye.]. Дни поражений и побед [那些失敗與勝利的日子; Dni porazheniy i pobed]. Москва: Вагриус, 1997.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Иванов, Игорь Сергеевич [伊凡諾夫, 伊格爾•謝爾蓋耶夫; Ivanov, Igor’ Sergeyevich]. Новая Российская дипломатия [俄羅斯新外交; Novaya Rossiyskaya diplomatiya]. Москва: Олма-Пресс, 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Краснов, В. Н.[可拉斯諾夫; Krasnov V. N.]. Россия: партии-выборы-власть [俄羅斯:政黨-選舉-權力; Rossiya: partii-vybory-vlast’]. Москва: Обозреватель, 1996.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Медведев, Рой [梅德維傑夫, 羅伊; Medvedev, Roy]. Время Путина [普欽時代; Vremya Putina]. Москва: Фолио, 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、  期刊zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Государственный визит президента Ельцина в США.” [葉里欽總統到美國的官方訪問; Gosudarstvennyy vizit prezidenta Yel’tsina v SSHA] Дипломатический вестник [外交公報;Diplomaticheskiy vestnik] 13-14 (Jul 1992): 3-17.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Дискуссия о том, какой быть внешней политике России.” [關於俄羅斯對外政策走向的討論; Diskussiya o tom, kakoy byt’ vneshney politike Rossii] Международная жизнь [國際生活;Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’] 2 (1993): 5-22.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Кэмп-Дэвидская декларация президента Буша и президента Ельцина о новых отношениях.” [布希總統和葉里欽總統關於新關係的大衛營宣言; Kemp-Devidskaya deklaratsiya prezidenta Busha i prezidenta Yel’tsina o novyh otnosheniyah] Дипломатический вестник [外交公報;Diplomaticheskiy vestnik] 4-5 (Mar 1992): 12.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Театр военных действий в Москве.” [Teatr voyennyh deystviy v Moskve; 莫斯哥劇院武裝行動] Новое Время [Novoye Vremya; 新時代] 44 (2002): 6-10.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Арбатов, А. [阿爾巴托夫; Arbatov, A.]. “Россия безопасность страны в 90х годах.” [俄羅斯在90年代的國家安全; Rossiya bezopasnost’ strany v 90h godah] МЕМО [世界經濟與國際關係;MEMO] 8-9 (1994): 13.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Белоусов, А.Р. [別拉巫所夫; Belousov, A. R.]. “Эффективный экономический рост в 2001-2010 гг.: условия и ограничения.” [2000-2010年經濟發展綱要:規則與限制; Effektivnyy ekonomicheskiy rost v 2001-2010 gg.:usloviya i ogranicheniya] Проблемы прогнозирования [預測雜誌; Problemy prognozirovaniya] 1 (2001): c27.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Дубнов, Вадим [杜伯諾夫, 伐金; Dubcdv, Vadim]. “Чечня после «Норд-Оста». Кремль объявляет новую войну.” [「東北」劇院事件後續車臣情勢:克宮再度宣戰; Chechnya posle «Nord-Osta» Kreml` ob`yavlyayet novuyu voynu] Новое Время [Novoye Vremya; 新時代] 46 (2002): 4-5.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Скосырев, Владимир [斯枸徙烈夫, 孚拉基米爾; Skosyrev, Vladimir]. “Русский с китайцем - братья по расчёту.” [Russkiy s kitaytsem - brat’ya po raschyotu; 俄羅斯人與中國人 - 親兄弟明算帳] Время [Vremya; 時代] 108 (15 Jul 2000).zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 三、  報紙zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Американцы обвиняют в своих военных неудачах российское оружие.” [美國把自己戰爭的失敗怪罪到俄羅斯的武器上; Amerikantsy obvinyayut v svoih voyennyh neudachah rossiyskoye oruzhiye] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 25 Mar 2003, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Б. Клинтон в Москве: день второй.” [柯林頓在莫斯科: 第二天; B. Klinton v Moskve: den’ vtoroy] Правда [真理報;Pravda], 15 Jan 1994, pp. 1-3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Владимир Путин обнародовал свою программу.” [普欽公布自己的競選綱領; Vladimir Putin obnarodoval svoyu programmu] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 30 Dec 1999, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Гражданский брак «Единства» и «Отечества».” [「團結聯盟」和「祖國聯盟」的聯姻; Grazhdanskiy brak ‘Yedinstva’ i ‘Otechestva’] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 12 Jul 2001, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Минимум последствий.” [最少的結果; Minimum posledstviy] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 30 Oct 2001, p. 5.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Основные положения военной докрины Российской Федерации.” [俄羅斯聯邦軍事準則基本原則; Osnovnyye polozheniya voyennoy dokriny Rossiysoy Federatsii] Российские вести [俄羅斯公報;Rossiyskiye vesti], 8 Nov 1993, pp. 1-2.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Открытое писъмо Владимира Путина к российским избирателям.” [普欽在致選民的公開信; Otkrytoye pis`mo Vladimira Putina k rossiyskim izbiratelyam] Комсомольская правда [共青團真理報;Komsomol’skaya pravda], 25 Feb 2000, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Пересадка в органах.” [機關人事調動; Peresadka v organah] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 29 Mar 2001, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Плановая ошибка.” [計劃性錯誤;Planovaya oshibka] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 14 Dec 2001, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Помощь России с экономит Америке миллиарды долларов, так утверждает Президент Клинтон.” [柯林頓總統確認經援俄羅斯; Pomosh’ Rossii s yekonomit Amerike milliardy dollarov, tak utverzhdayet Prezident Klinton] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 26 Mar 1993, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Путин пригласил иностранных инвесторов заходитъ.” [普欽歡迎國外投資者進來投資; Putin priglacil inostrannyh investorov zahodit`] Комсомольская правда [共青團真理報;Komsomol’skaya pravda], 31 Oct 2001, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Россия вооружает пехоту ядерным оружием.” [俄羅斯使步兵裝備核武器; Rossiya vooruzhaet pehotu yadernym oruzhiyem] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 30 Apr 1999, p. 2.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Россия и Китай объединились по вопросу ПРО: Визит Путина в Пекин показал, что взаимодействие двух стран может сбалансировать американские стремления к гегемонизму в мире.” [俄羅斯與中國對反飛彈防禦問題的立場一致:普欽走訪北京顯示兩國互動可以制衡美國稱霸世界的企圖; Possiya i Kitay ob’yedinilis’ po voprosu PRO: Vizit Putina v Pekin pokazal, chto vzaimodeystviye dvuh stran mozhet sbalansirovat’ amerikanskiye stremleniya k gegemonizmu v mire] Независимая Газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 19 Jul 2000, pp. 1-6.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Россия может потерятъ 700 миллионов долларов. Если не выведет войска из стран Балтии к 6 Октября.” [俄羅斯可能損失7億美元,如果不在10月6日以前從波羅的海國家撤軍; Rossiya mozhet poteryat’ 700 millionov dollarov. Yesli ne vyvedet voyska iz stran Baltii k 6 Oktyabrya] Известия[消息報;Izvestiya], Aug 26 1993, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Россия получит международная помощь только под реформы.” [俄羅斯只能在改革之下才能接受國際的援助; Rossiya poluchit mezhdunarodnaya pomosh’ tol’ko pod reformy] Известия [消息報;Izvestiya], 24 Apr 1992, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Силовая реформа.” [強力改革; Silovaya reforma] Российская газета [俄羅斯報;Rossiyskaya gazeta], 12 Mar 2003, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Арбатов, Алексей Г.. [阿爾巴托夫, 阿列克謝依; Arbatov, Aleksey G..] “Ядерная дилемма военной доктрины .” [軍事準則之核子難題; Yadernaya dilemma voyennoy doktriny] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 3 Dec 1993, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Баталов, Эдуард и Виктор Кременюк [巴塔洛夫, 愛德華和維克托•克列梅紐克; Batalov, Yeduard i Viktor Kremenyuk]. “Россия и США: Друзъя? Соперники? Партнеры?” [俄羅斯與美國: 朋友?對手?夥伴?; Rossiya i SHA: Druz’ya?Soperniki?Partnery?] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 6 Oct 2001, p. 7.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Громыко, Алексей [葛羅米柯, 阿列克謝依; Gromyko, Aleksey]. “У России пока нет ясной концепции националъных интересов.” [俄羅斯還沒有明確的國家利益構想; U Rossii poka net yasnoy kontseptsii natsional`nyh interesov] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 19 Sep 1996, p. 5.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Козырев, Андрей [科濟列夫, 安德列伊; Kozyrev, Andrey]. “Преображенная Россия в новом мире.” [在新世界中轉了型的俄羅斯; Preobrazhennaya Rossiya v novom mire] Известия [消息報;Izvestiia,], 2 Jan 1992, p. 3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Петровская, Юлия [彼得羅夫斯卡雅, 尤利亞; Petrovskaya, Yuliya]. “Буш впервые столкнулся с фрондой Москвы.” [布希初次與俄羅斯產生產生衝突; Bush vpervyye stolknulsya s frondoy Moskvy] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 26 Mar 2003, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Путин [普欽; Putin]. “Россия на рубеже тысячелетий.” [千年之交的俄羅斯; Rossiya na rubezhe tysyacheletiy] Независимая газета [獨立報;Nezavisimaya gazeta], 30 Dec 1999, p. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Родин, Иван и Марина Волкова [羅金, 伊凡和瑪利納•伐蔻琺; Rodin, Ivan i Marina Volkova]. “Большая политическая игра в Думе закончилась.” [杜馬內更大的政治遊戲結束了; Bol`shaya politicheskaya igra v Dume zakonchilas`] Незави&#1zh_TW