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題名 後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策之研究
作者 杜和庭
Tu, Ho-ting
貢獻者 林碧炤
杜和庭
Tu, Ho-ting
關鍵詞 飛彈防禦
國家安全戰略
外交政策
全國飛彈防禦系統
星戰
missile defense
national security strategy
foreign policy
NMD
SDI
日期 2003
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 17:47:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 　　美國佈署飛彈防禦系統的爭議，在2001年12月，小布希決定佈署後已暫告一段落。實實上，發展飛彈防禦問題在過去半個世紀，一直是美國最受爭議的國家安全政策。這項攸關美國國安全的重要議題，在不同年代每次被提出，總是引起國際高度關注，和美國朝野兩極化反應和激烈爭辯。為了進一步了解美國飛彈防禦政策的形成過程和影響因素，筆者希望透過國際局勢演變、國家戰略思考、政府內部辯論、國會影響，以及飛彈科技發展等角度，分析後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策的演進和發展。
　　冷戰時代，美蘇在各自擁有足以消滅彼此的核武彈頭數量後，雙方簽署「反彈道飛彈」（ABM）條約，以限制彼此發展飛彈防禦系統，「相互保證摧毀」（MAD）概念於是成為冷戰時期，美蘇維持戰略穩定的重要基礎。到了雷根政府時期，美國企圖發展太空飛彈防禦的「戰略防禦計畫」（SDI），以追求抵擋蘇聯核武攻擊的絕對安全，並進一步打破相互保證安全的「鐵律」。不過在科技水準不夠的情況下，使得這項計畫始終無法實現。
　　八零年代末期，隨著東歐期產政權逐一跨台，美國的宿敵蘇聯也在1991年解體，使得冷戰終於落幕。雖然後冷戰時期的美國，不再面臨成千上萬枚核彈攻擊的陰影，不過，1991年波灣戰爭時，伊拉克飛毛腿飛彈對盟軍構成的威脅，以及蘇聯解體前後，因局勢不穩，所引發的核彈處置保管和大規模毀滅性武器（WMD）擴散的問題，讓布希政府決定繼續支持發展飛彈防禦。不過，布希總統最後在國內經濟狀況不佳情況下連任失敗，使得美國發展飛彈防禦的計畫也就此受阻。
　　對於飛彈威脅的看法，布希政府和柯林頓政府之間有相當大的落差。柯林頓政府認為，美國只要發展「戰區飛彈防禦」（TMD），即能滿足國家安安全的需要。對於飛彈技術和WMD的擴散，則要靠國際間的合作以及國際機制的力量解決。不過柯林頓政府傾向理想主義處理國安事務的態度，在第二任期時，有了重大調整。在共和黨國會，以及北韓試射彈道飛彈的雙重壓力下，柯林頓政府宣布研發「全國飛彈防禦」（NMD），不過由於俄羅斯強烈反對，歐洲盟國普遍不支持，柯林頓政府終究沒有做出佈署NMD的決定。
　　小布希政府對美國國家安全的危機感，充份反映在支持佈署飛彈防禦的強烈立場。為了讓美國佈署保護全國的飛彈防禦系統，小布希政府上台後，展現勢在必得態度，對俄羅斯、以及主要盟國進行強力遊說。911恐怖攻擊的發生，雖然讓小布希政府對國家安全戰略進行調整，不過政府對飛彈防禦的重視和支持，並沒有受到影響，反而因為威脅來源的不確定而更加堅定這項計畫，並在同年宣布美國片面退出1973年和蘇聯簽署的ABM條約，解決法律上的約束，全力進行飛彈防禦系統的研發。
　　保護美國安全是每一位美國總統的首要責任。後冷戰時期的美國，雖然以全球唯一霸權姿態主導國際事務，不過911事件後，美國不顧其他主要國家反對，執意出兵伊拉克，造成無法收拾的窘境，卻也凸顯出美國國力的侷限，並不得不尋求國際社會的協助。另外，從客觀角度觀察，中共崛起造成的挑戰，以及未來可能有更多國家或非國家組織取得WMD和飛彈技術的情況下，美國為了維護在國際間的利益以及國家安全，飛彈防禦的研發、佈署已成未來政府不可逆轉的政策趨勢。
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劉黎兒，「日新建兩艘神盾艦　將具TMD機能」，中國時報，民國90年8月18日，版10。
「歐盟：ABM非聖經　美有權部署NMD」，中國時報，民國90年2月7日，版10。
「彈道飛彈防禦網　美可能明年納入日本」，聯合報，民國92年9月3日，版A14。
霍達文，「擴大歐盟影響力　法德擬組聯盟」，聯合報，民國92年11月14日，版A14。
蕭羨一，「美向日保證　可攔截北韓中程飛彈」，中國時報，民國91年12月26日，版10。
「應變計畫：美必要時對中共等國用核武」，聯合報，民國91年3月10日，版12。
網路資源
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英文報紙
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英文報紙
洛杉磯時報：www.latimes.com 紐約時報：www.nytimes.com
華盛頓郵報：www.washingtonpost.com 華盛頓時報：www.washingtontimes.com
美國官方網站
白宮：www.whitehouse.gov 　國防部：www.defenselink.mil
國務院：www.state.gov 彈道飛彈防禦局：www.acq.osd.mil/bmdo/bmdolink/html
參議院：www.senate.gov 眾議院：www.house.gov
智庫
美國企業研究院（American Enterprise Institute）
www.aei.org
布魯金斯研究院（Brookings Institution）
www.brookings.org
卡都研究院（Cato Institute）
www.cato.org
國防資訊中心（Center for Defense Information, CDI）
www.cdi.org
安全政策中心（Center for Security Policy）
www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org
戰略暨國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS）
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全球安全（Global Security）
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傳統基金會（Heritage Foundation, HF）
www.heritage.org
新美國世紀計畫（The Project for the New America Century）
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
89253027
92
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0089253027
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林碧炤zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 杜和庭zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tu, Ho-tingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 杜和庭zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Tu, Ho-tingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2003en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 17:47:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 17:47:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 17:47:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0089253027en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33653-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 89253027zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 　　美國佈署飛彈防禦系統的爭議，在2001年12月，小布希決定佈署後已暫告一段落。實實上，發展飛彈防禦問題在過去半個世紀，一直是美國最受爭議的國家安全政策。這項攸關美國國安全的重要議題，在不同年代每次被提出，總是引起國際高度關注，和美國朝野兩極化反應和激烈爭辯。為了進一步了解美國飛彈防禦政策的形成過程和影響因素，筆者希望透過國際局勢演變、國家戰略思考、政府內部辯論、國會影響，以及飛彈科技發展等角度，分析後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策的演進和發展。
　　冷戰時代，美蘇在各自擁有足以消滅彼此的核武彈頭數量後，雙方簽署「反彈道飛彈」（ABM）條約，以限制彼此發展飛彈防禦系統，「相互保證摧毀」（MAD）概念於是成為冷戰時期，美蘇維持戰略穩定的重要基礎。到了雷根政府時期，美國企圖發展太空飛彈防禦的「戰略防禦計畫」（SDI），以追求抵擋蘇聯核武攻擊的絕對安全，並進一步打破相互保證安全的「鐵律」。不過在科技水準不夠的情況下，使得這項計畫始終無法實現。
　　八零年代末期，隨著東歐期產政權逐一跨台，美國的宿敵蘇聯也在1991年解體，使得冷戰終於落幕。雖然後冷戰時期的美國，不再面臨成千上萬枚核彈攻擊的陰影，不過，1991年波灣戰爭時，伊拉克飛毛腿飛彈對盟軍構成的威脅，以及蘇聯解體前後，因局勢不穩，所引發的核彈處置保管和大規模毀滅性武器（WMD）擴散的問題，讓布希政府決定繼續支持發展飛彈防禦。不過，布希總統最後在國內經濟狀況不佳情況下連任失敗，使得美國發展飛彈防禦的計畫也就此受阻。
　　對於飛彈威脅的看法，布希政府和柯林頓政府之間有相當大的落差。柯林頓政府認為，美國只要發展「戰區飛彈防禦」（TMD），即能滿足國家安安全的需要。對於飛彈技術和WMD的擴散，則要靠國際間的合作以及國際機制的力量解決。不過柯林頓政府傾向理想主義處理國安事務的態度，在第二任期時，有了重大調整。在共和黨國會，以及北韓試射彈道飛彈的雙重壓力下，柯林頓政府宣布研發「全國飛彈防禦」（NMD），不過由於俄羅斯強烈反對，歐洲盟國普遍不支持，柯林頓政府終究沒有做出佈署NMD的決定。
　　小布希政府對美國國家安全的危機感，充份反映在支持佈署飛彈防禦的強烈立場。為了讓美國佈署保護全國的飛彈防禦系統，小布希政府上台後，展現勢在必得態度，對俄羅斯、以及主要盟國進行強力遊說。911恐怖攻擊的發生，雖然讓小布希政府對國家安全戰略進行調整，不過政府對飛彈防禦的重視和支持，並沒有受到影響，反而因為威脅來源的不確定而更加堅定這項計畫，並在同年宣布美國片面退出1973年和蘇聯簽署的ABM條約，解決法律上的約束，全力進行飛彈防禦系統的研發。
　　保護美國安全是每一位美國總統的首要責任。後冷戰時期的美國，雖然以全球唯一霸權姿態主導國際事務，不過911事件後，美國不顧其他主要國家反對，執意出兵伊拉克，造成無法收拾的窘境，卻也凸顯出美國國力的侷限，並不得不尋求國際社會的協助。另外，從客觀角度觀察，中共崛起造成的挑戰，以及未來可能有更多國家或非國家組織取得WMD和飛彈技術的情況下，美國為了維護在國際間的利益以及國家安全，飛彈防禦的研發、佈署已成未來政府不可逆轉的政策趨勢。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 謝辭　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　i
摘要 iii
圖目錄　　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　vii
表目錄 　　　　　　　　　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　 viii
重要英文縮寫╱全文╱中譯 　 ix
第一章 緒 論　 　　　　 　　　　　　　　　　 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與分析架構 4
第三節 研究範圍與限制 6
第二章 國家安全政策的形成 9
第一節 政策背景 　 11
第二節 制定過程 16
第三節 冷戰時期國安戰略與飛彈防禦政策 28
第三章 布希時期 　　 47
第一節 　冷戰結束與布希政府飛彈防禦政 48
第二節 波灣戰爭的影響 61
第三節 布希政府飛彈防禦系統規畫 73
第四節　小結 79
第四章 柯林頓時期 81
第一節 柯林頓政府對飛彈防禦的基本態度 82
第二節　內外環境變動下的政策調整 92
第三節 柯林頓政府飛彈防禦系統規畫 105
第四節　小結　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　116
第五章 小布希時期 118
第一節 小布希政府對飛彈防禦的基本態度 119
第二節　新戰略下的飛彈防禦 129
第三節　小布希政府飛彈防禦系統規畫 149
第四節　小結　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　　　　　159
第六章 結論 162
第一節 研究發現 　　 162
第二節 研究建議──兼論後911美國國家安全 169
附錄一 雷根－小布希政府時期影響飛彈防禦因素/政策簡圖174
附錄二 美國飛彈防禦與國際重大事件時間表 178
參考書目 182



































圖目錄

圖1.1　外交政策分析之環境模式　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 5
圖2.1　國家安全政策與其他政策的關係　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 10
圖2.2　影響美國總統決策之國內外因素　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 17
圖2.3　影響美國總統國安決策之遠近因素 19
圖3.1　布希政府國家安全三支柱　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 51
圖3.2　SDS Phase I防禦架構 75
圖3.3　GPALS系統架構 78
圖4.1　柯林頓政府國家安全三支柱　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 86
圖4.2　NMD系統運作圖 115
圖5.1　美國新三位一體戰略（New Triad）　　　　　　　　　　　　　　121
圖5.2　小布希政府國家安全三支柱　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　124
圖5.3A　彈道飛彈飛行圖　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 151
圖5.3B　彈道飛彈飛行圖 152
圖5.4　太空追蹤暨偵測系統　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　155
圖5.5　海基X波段雷達　　　　　　　　　　　　 　　　　　　　　　156




















表目錄

表2.1　雷根時代SDI變革 　　　　　　　46
表3.1　1990年蘇聯加盟共和國貯放蘇聯核彈頭概況表　　　　　　　　　53
表3.2　1991年秋季俄羅斯境外前蘇聯共和國貯存核子彈頭概況　　　　　54
表3.3　美國1988-1993年會計年度國防預算 　　　　　　　　　　　 58
表3.4A　1989-1993參議院席次情況　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 59
表3.4B　1989-1993眾議院席次情況　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 59
表3.5　1985-94會計年度彈道飛彈防禦經費　　　　　　　　　　　　　 61
表3.6　波灣戰爭前伊拉克飛彈研發及部署情況　　　　　　　　　　　　65
表3.7　九零年代美蘇╱俄羅斯裁滅核武彈頭情況　　　　　　　　　　　70
表4.1　1997年四年期國防總檢預估國防人力裁減情況　　　　　　　　　84
表4.2　美國1994-2000年會計年度國防預算　　　　　　　　　　　　　 90
表4.3 1994-2001年會計年度彈道飛彈防禦經費 91
表4.4A　1993-2001年參議院席次情況　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　 96
表4.4B　1993-2001年眾議院席次情況 96
表4.5　柯林頓政府時期TMD系統　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 107
表4.6　美國NMD計畫部署架構 111
表5.1A　2001-2005參議院席次情況　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 132
表5.1B　2001-2005眾議院席次情況 132
表6.1　自1988年起飛彈防禦費用所佔國防經費比例 166
表6.2　兩次波灣戰爭比較 173		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0089253027en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 飛彈防禦zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國家安全戰略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外交政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 全國飛彈防禦系統zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 星戰zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) missile defenseen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) national security strategyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) foreign policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) NMDen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) SDIen_US
dc.title (題名) 後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策之研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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