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題名 守勢現實主義與冷戰後中共的安全政策
Defensive Realism and Post-Cold War PRC Security Policy
作者 張廖年仲
Chang Liao, Nien-Chung
貢獻者 王元綱
Wang,Yuan-kang
張廖年仲
Chang Liao, Nien-Chung
關鍵詞 中共
守勢現實主義
安全政策
冷戰後
defensive realism
Post-Cold War
PRC
security policy
日期 2004
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 18:03:53 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文的中心命題是：冷戰後的中國是尋求向外擴張、還是自我防禦的國家？為了檢視此一命題，本論文從守勢現實主義（defensive realism）的理論中推論出維持現狀、嚇阻戰略與昂貴信號，以作為檢視冷戰後中共安全行為的指標。本論文分別檢視中共領導人的政策宣示、1995-96年台海危機以及冷戰後中共與南海爭議的個案，證明：第一、中共對國際環境的認知會符合守勢現實主義關於良性的國際結構與安全充足的觀點；第二、中共的外交政策旨在維持既有的國際秩序，所以其對外的行為以維持現狀為主，避免改變現狀的情形發生；第三、中共的國防政策屬於防禦性的，因此其戰略以嚇阻為主，避免使用武力直接與敵人衝突；第四、為了表示防禦性、維持現狀或者是合作的意圖，中共採取昂貴信號的作法，以避免被其他國家所誤解。所以，本論文論證出冷戰後的中國是一個追求自我防禦的國家，其安全政策是屬於防禦性的。
The central question of this thesis is: Is China an expansionist or a self-preserving state in the Post-Cold War era? From defensive realism theory, I infer status quo policy, deterrence strategy, and costly signal to estimate Post-Cold War PRC security behavior. Empirically, I examine Chinese leaders’ statements, the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995-96, and South China Sea disputes in the Post-Cold War era. I reach the conclusion that: First, PRC’s perception of international environment is consistent with defensive realism’s argument that international structure is benign and security is plentiful. Second, China engages status quo foreign policy to maintain the international order. Third, China’s defense policy emphasizes on deterrence strategy to avoid direct conflict with the enemy. Fourth, China adopted costly signals to unfold its defensive, status quo, or cooperative intention to prevent other countries’ misunderstanding. I argue that, therefore, Post-Cold War China is a self-protecting state with the defensive security policy.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
91260001
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912600011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王元綱zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wang,Yuan-kangen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張廖年仲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang Liao, Nien-Chungen_US
dc.creator (作者) 張廖年仲zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang Liao, Nien-Chungen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 18:03:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 18:03:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 18:03:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0912600011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33758-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 東亞研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91260001zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文的中心命題是：冷戰後的中國是尋求向外擴張、還是自我防禦的國家？為了檢視此一命題，本論文從守勢現實主義（defensive realism）的理論中推論出維持現狀、嚇阻戰略與昂貴信號，以作為檢視冷戰後中共安全行為的指標。本論文分別檢視中共領導人的政策宣示、1995-96年台海危機以及冷戰後中共與南海爭議的個案，證明：第一、中共對國際環境的認知會符合守勢現實主義關於良性的國際結構與安全充足的觀點；第二、中共的外交政策旨在維持既有的國際秩序，所以其對外的行為以維持現狀為主，避免改變現狀的情形發生；第三、中共的國防政策屬於防禦性的，因此其戰略以嚇阻為主，避免使用武力直接與敵人衝突；第四、為了表示防禦性、維持現狀或者是合作的意圖，中共採取昂貴信號的作法，以避免被其他國家所誤解。所以，本論文論證出冷戰後的中國是一個追求自我防禦的國家，其安全政策是屬於防禦性的。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The central question of this thesis is: Is China an expansionist or a self-preserving state in the Post-Cold War era? From defensive realism theory, I infer status quo policy, deterrence strategy, and costly signal to estimate Post-Cold War PRC security behavior. Empirically, I examine Chinese leaders’ statements, the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995-96, and South China Sea disputes in the Post-Cold War era. I reach the conclusion that: First, PRC’s perception of international environment is consistent with defensive realism’s argument that international structure is benign and security is plentiful. Second, China engages status quo foreign policy to maintain the international order. Third, China’s defense policy emphasizes on deterrence strategy to avoid direct conflict with the enemy. Fourth, China adopted costly signals to unfold its defensive, status quo, or cooperative intention to prevent other countries’ misunderstanding. I argue that, therefore, Post-Cold War China is a self-protecting state with the defensive security policy.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 ……………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究背景與緣起 …………………………………………… 1
第二節 文獻回顧 …………………………………………………… 3
一、守勢現實主義的文獻檢閱………………………………… 3
二、中共守勢政策的相關文獻………………………………… 5
第三節 研究問題與重要性………………………………………… 10
第四節 研究方法…………………………………………………… 13
第五節 研究範圍、限制與章節安排……………………………… 14

第貳章 守勢現實主義的理論…………………………………………… 17
第一節 現實主義理論的演變……………………………………… 17
第二節 守勢現實主義的理論……………………………………… 22
第三節 對守勢現實主義的批評與回應…………………………… 27
第四節 維持現狀、嚇阻與昂貴信號……………………………… 30
一、維持現狀的政策 ………………………………………… 30
二、嚇阻戰略 ………………………………………………… 32
三、昂貴信號的作法 ………………………………………… 34
第五節 研究假設…………………………………………………… 35
小 結 ……………………………………………………………… 37

第貳章 冷戰後中共對國境環境的認知 ………………………………… 38
第一節 和平發展的時代主題 ……………………………………… 38
第二節 轉變中的世界格局 ………………………………………… 42
第三節 總體緩和的國際形勢 ……………………………………… 45
第四節 防禦性的國防政策 ………………………………………… 48
小 結 ………………………………………………………………… 51

第肆章 1995-96年台海危機……………………………………………… 53
第一節 危機的由來與經過 ………………………………………… 53
一、從文攻到武嚇（1995年7月至10月）……………………54
二、危機的升高與結束（1995年11月至1996年3月） …………55
第二節 維持現狀的政策 …………………………………………… 60
一、中共擔憂「一中」現狀的改變 ………………………………60二、中共採取軍事手段維持現狀 ……………………………… 62
第三節 嚇阻戰略 …………………………………………………… 64
一、從和平統一到文攻武嚇…………………………………… 64二、中共的嚇阻戰略…………………………………………… 65
第四節 昂貴信號的作法 …………………………………………… 67
小 結 ………………………………………………………………… 69

第伍章 冷戰後中共與南海爭議 ………………………………………… 70
第一節 南海爭議的由來與經過 …………………………………… 70
一、南海的重要性與主權爭議 ………………………………… 70
二、冷戰後中共的南海衝突 …………………………………… 72
三、中共化解南海爭議的作為 ………………………………… 75
第二節 維持現狀的政策 …………………………………………… 76
一、90年代以前中共對南海的擴張…………………………… 76二、90年代以後中共的維持現狀……………………………… 77
三、中共是否能夠改變現狀？………………………………… 79
第三節 嚇阻戰略 …………………………………………………… 81
第四節 昂貴信號的作法 …………………………………………… 82
小 結 ………………………………………………………………… 86

第陸章 結論 ……………………………………………………………… 87
第一節 研究回顧 …………………………………………………… 87
第二節 研究發現 …………………………………………………… 88
一、良性的國際結構與安全充足的認知……………………… 88
二、維持現狀 …………………………………………………… 89
三、嚇阻 ………………………………………………………… 89
四、昂貴信號…………………………………………………… 90
第三節 政策因應 …………………………………………………… 91
第四節 研究策進 …………………………………………………… 94

附錄：南海各方行為宣言…………………………………………………… 96

參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………… 99		zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912600011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中共zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 守勢現實主義zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 安全政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 冷戰後zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) defensive realismen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Post-Cold Waren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) PRCen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) security policyen_US
dc.title (題名) 守勢現實主義與冷戰後中共的安全政策zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Defensive Realism and Post-Cold War PRC Security Policyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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