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題名 電腦模擬在生育、死亡、遷移及人口推估之應用
An Application of simulation in projecting fertility, mortality, migration and population
作者 李芯柔
Lee, Hsin Jou
貢獻者 余清祥
Jack C. Yue
李芯柔
Lee, Hsin Jou
關鍵詞 隨機人口推估
小區域人口推估
人口變動要素合成法
拔靴法
電腦模擬
遷移模型
Stochastic Projection
Small Area Population Projection
Cohort Component
Block Bootstrap
computer simulation
Migration Model
Population projection
日期 2007
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 18:47:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 人口政策的制定需要人口推估作基礎。近年世界各國人口推估逐漸從專家意見推估走向機率推估，常見的機率推估分成三大類，隨機推估、模擬情境、推估誤差三種，本文所使用的人口推估方法為隨機推估法結合生育率之模擬情境方法，在人口變動要素組合法 (Cohort Component Method) 之下輔以電腦模擬的區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)，針對台灣地區與台灣北、中、南、東四地區進行人口推估。另外，本文試圖在隨機模型人口推估中加入遷移人口之考量，以期針對遷移人口在數量與其影響上都能有較深入的了解，比較區塊拔靴法與經建會推估之差異後發現遷移之考量確實會影響人口推估之結果。<br>針對與全區相符的小區域人口推估，本文亦提出可使得推估一致的方法，但其缺點為限制了生育、死亡人口要素之變動性。此推估在總數上與隨機推估方法差異不大，但在人口結構上則有明顯的差別，此差別可能是來自於死亡率在四區間差異造成。
Population projection is important to policy making, and only with accurate population projection can the government achieve suitable policy planning and improve the welfare of the society. The most popular and well-known population
projection method is the Cohort Component method, proposed since 1930’s. The trends of future fertility, mortality and migration are required, in order to apply the cohort component method. Currently in Taiwan, these trends are determined according to experts’ opinions (or scenario projection) and three future scenarios are assumed: high, median and low scenarios. One of the drawbacks in applying
experts’ opinions is that the projection results of these three scenarios do not have the meaning in probability.
To modify the expert’ opinions and let the projection results carry the meaning in probability, many demographic researchers have developed stochastic projection methods. The proposed stochastic methods can be categorized into three groups: stochastic forecast, random scenario and ex post methods. In this study, we introduce these stochastic methods and evaluate the possibility of applying the methods in projecting the population in Taiwan.
In this study we use block bootstrap, a computer simulation and stochastic forecast method, to determine the trends of future fertility, mortality and migration in Taiwan, and combine it with the cohort component method for population projection in Taiwan. We compare the projection results with those from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario projection). We found that the block bootstrap is a possible alternative to the scenario projection in population projection, and the numbers of migration is small but have a non-ignorable influence
on the future population. However, we also found that the block bootstrap alone might not be appropriate for population projection in small areas.
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規劃處，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/index.jsp。
中華民國台灣地區民國 84 年至民國 140 年人口推計，行政院經濟建設委員
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余清祥與藍銘偉 (2003)，“台灣地區生育率模型之研究”，人口學刊，Vol. 27,
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黃意萍與余清祥 (2002)，“台灣地區生育率模式的推估研究”，人口學刊，
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曾奕翔與余清祥 (2002)，“台灣地區死亡率推估的實證方法之研究”，中華民
國人口學年會學術研討會。
賴思帆與余清祥 (2006)，“台灣與各國生育率模型之實證與模擬比較”，人口
學刊， Vol. 33, 33-59。
郭孟坤與余清祥 (2007)，“電腦模擬與隨機方法在人口推估的應用”，國立政
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
95354009
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095354009
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 余清祥zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Jack C. Yueen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李芯柔zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lee, Hsin Jouen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李芯柔zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lee, Hsin Jouen_US
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 18:47:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 18:47:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 18:47:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095354009en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33909-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 統計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95354009zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 人口政策的制定需要人口推估作基礎。近年世界各國人口推估逐漸從專家意見推估走向機率推估，常見的機率推估分成三大類，隨機推估、模擬情境、推估誤差三種，本文所使用的人口推估方法為隨機推估法結合生育率之模擬情境方法，在人口變動要素組合法 (Cohort Component Method) 之下輔以電腦模擬的區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)，針對台灣地區與台灣北、中、南、東四地區進行人口推估。另外，本文試圖在隨機模型人口推估中加入遷移人口之考量，以期針對遷移人口在數量與其影響上都能有較深入的了解，比較區塊拔靴法與經建會推估之差異後發現遷移之考量確實會影響人口推估之結果。<br>針對與全區相符的小區域人口推估，本文亦提出可使得推估一致的方法，但其缺點為限制了生育、死亡人口要素之變動性。此推估在總數上與隨機推估方法差異不大，但在人口結構上則有明顯的差別，此差別可能是來自於死亡率在四區間差異造成。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Population projection is important to policy making, and only with accurate population projection can the government achieve suitable policy planning and improve the welfare of the society. The most popular and well-known population
projection method is the Cohort Component method, proposed since 1930’s. The trends of future fertility, mortality and migration are required, in order to apply the cohort component method. Currently in Taiwan, these trends are determined according to experts’ opinions (or scenario projection) and three future scenarios are assumed: high, median and low scenarios. One of the drawbacks in applying
experts’ opinions is that the projection results of these three scenarios do not have the meaning in probability.
To modify the expert’ opinions and let the projection results carry the meaning in probability, many demographic researchers have developed stochastic projection methods. The proposed stochastic methods can be categorized into three groups: stochastic forecast, random scenario and ex post methods. In this study, we introduce these stochastic methods and evaluate the possibility of applying the methods in projecting the population in Taiwan.
In this study we use block bootstrap, a computer simulation and stochastic forecast method, to determine the trends of future fertility, mortality and migration in Taiwan, and combine it with the cohort component method for population projection in Taiwan. We compare the projection results with those from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario projection). We found that the block bootstrap is a possible alternative to the scenario projection in population projection, and the numbers of migration is small but have a non-ignorable influence
on the future population. However, we also found that the block bootstrap alone might not be appropriate for population projection in small areas.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、前言...........................................................................................................1
第一節、研究動機................................................................................................1
第二節、研究目的................................................................................................3
第二章、文獻回顧....................................................................................................4
第一節、人口變動要素組合法.............................................................................4
第二節、機率人口推估方法.................................................................................7
一、機率人口推估方法....................................................................................7
二、區塊拔靴法..............................................................................................10
第三節、人口遷移推估......................................................................................12
第三章、資料簡介及研究方法...............................................................................18
第一節、資料來源及處理..................................................................................18
第二節、研究方法..............................................................................................20
一、台灣地區推估..........................................................................................21
二、台灣北、中、南、東四地區推估...........................................................23
第四章、實證研究..................................................................................................25
第一節、敏感度分析..........................................................................................25
第二節、台灣全區人口推估...............................................................................28
第三節、隨機推估與專家意見比較...................................................................39
第四節、台灣北、中、南、東四地區人口推估................................................43
第五節、小區域推估調整與討論.......................................................................48
第五章、結論與建議..............................................................................................52
第一節、結論......................................................................................................52
第二節、研究限制與後續研究...........................................................................54
參考文獻.................................................................................................................56
中文部份.............................................................................................................56
英文部份.............................................................................................................57
附錄.........................................................................................................................62		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095354009en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 隨機人口推估zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 小區域人口推估zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人口變動要素合成法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 拔靴法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電腦模擬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 遷移模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Stochastic Projectionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Small Area Population Projectionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cohort Componenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Block Bootstrapen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) computer simulationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Migration Modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Population projectionen_US
dc.title (題名) 電腦模擬在生育、死亡、遷移及人口推估之應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An Application of simulation in projecting fertility, mortality, migration and populationen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部份zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國內政部統計資訊網，http://www.moi.gov.tw/W3/stat/。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國臺灣民國 95 年至民國 140 年人口推計，行政院經濟建設委員會人力zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 規劃處，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/index.jsp。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國台灣地區民國 84 年至民國 140 年人口推計，行政院經濟建設委員zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 會，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/index.jsp 。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 內政部 (1949 ~ 2005)，中華民國台閩地區人口統計，內政部編印。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳紹馨 (1979)，「中國社會文化研究的實驗室 – 台灣」，台北聯經出版事業zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 何正羽 (2006)，“高齡人口 Gompertz 死亡率推估模型的建構與應用”，東吳zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 大學商用數學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 余清祥與藍銘偉 (2003)，“台灣地區生育率模型之研究”，人口學刊，Vol. 27,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 105-131。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃意萍與余清祥 (2002)，“台灣地區生育率模式的推估研究”，人口學刊，zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Vol. 25, 145-171。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 曾奕翔與余清祥 (2002)，“台灣地區死亡率推估的實證方法之研究”，中華民zh_TW
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