| dc.contributor.advisor | 余清祥 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Yue, Ching-Syang Jack | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 許添容 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | Hsu, Tien-Jung Albert | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 許添容 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Hsu, Tien-Jung Albert | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2003 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 17-九月-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 17-九月-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 17-九月-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0913540221 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33916 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 統計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 91354022 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 92 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素，因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大。過去台灣地區生育率研究多為整體生育(如：總生育率、年齡別生育率)趨勢的模型，較少探討台灣各地區的特色。為能更深入瞭解台灣生育行為變化的特性，本文將生育率的研究層面由整體的資料，延伸至全台灣地區的各鄉鎮市區（不含離島地區有350個鄉鎮市區），希冀能更精確地找出與台灣地區生育率持續下降的相關因素。本文分為兩個部份，以鄉鎮市區的年齡別婦女生育率與年齡別有偶婦女生育率為研究對象，資料時間為1991、1992、2001、2002年：第一部份探討各鄉鎮市區的生育率數值間是否存在空間相關性，並進一步瞭解生育率較高（或較低）的地區是否有聚集的現象。第二部份則套用空間迴歸模型探討與生育率數值有關的因素（例如：人口密度、教育程度等），更精確且客觀地提供生育率未來趨勢的建議。關鍵字：生育率、人口老化、空間統計、空間群聚、空間迴歸 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Both the fertility rates and mortality rates, especially the fertility rates, have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. In order to identify the factors that are related to the decrease of fertility rates, unlike the previous works that deal with the aggregate national data, we will study the fertility pattern in township level. We will use the data of age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates in 1991, 1992, 2001, and 2002 in 350 townships of Taiwan area. This study will be separated into two parts. First, we shall explore if there is spatial correlation among 350 townships of Taiwan area and detect if there are spatial clusters for higher fertility townships. The second part of this project will be focused on the spatial regression model. We will use this model to determine the factors that are highly correlated to the dropping of fertility rates.Key Words: Fertility Rates, Aging Population, Spatial Statistics, Spatial Clustering, Spatial Regression | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機 1第二節 研究目的與方法 2第二章 空間統計介紹 4第一節 格點空間資料模型（Lattice Data） 4第二節 地理統計資料模型（Geostatistical Data） 5第三節 空間點分佈型態（Spatial Point Patterns） 7第三章 群集模型（Clustering & Clusters） 10第一節 群集現象（Clustering） 10第二節 群集狀況（Clusters） 13第三節 實證結果 15第四章 空間迴歸模型(Spatial Regression) 19第一節 空間迴歸介紹 19第二節 資料及變數說明 21第三節 實證結果 23第五章 討論與結論 35參考文獻 42附錄一、生育率檢定為顯著群集地區者 44附錄二、2002年與2001年迴歸模型係數比較表(模型一)— 57附錄三、2002年與2001年迴歸模型係數比較表(模型二)— , 61附錄四、2002年與2001年迴歸模型係數比較表(模型四)—log(y) 65 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913540221 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 生育率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 人口老化 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 空間統計 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 空間群聚 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 空間迴歸 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Fertility Rates | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Aging Population | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Spatial Statistics | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Spatial Clustering | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Spatial Regression | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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