Publications-Theses

題名 台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究
作者 許添容
Hsu, Tien-Jung Albert
貢獻者 余清祥
Yue, Ching-Syang Jack
許添容
Hsu, Tien-Jung Albert
關鍵詞 生育率
人口老化
空間統計
空間群聚
空間迴歸
Fertility Rates
Aging Population
Spatial Statistics
Spatial Clustering
Spatial Regression
日期 2003
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8)
摘要 生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素,因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率,對人口結構的影響較大。過去台灣地區生育率研究多為整體生育(如:總生育率、年齡別生育率)趨勢的模型,較少探討台灣各地區的特色。為能更深入瞭解台灣生育行為變化的特性,本文將生育率的研究層面由整體的資料,延伸至全台灣地區的各鄉鎮市區(不含離島地區有350個鄉鎮市區),希冀能更精確地找出與台灣地區生育率持續下降的相關因素。本文分為兩個部份,以鄉鎮市區的年齡別婦女生育率與年齡別有偶婦女生育率為研究對象,資料時間為1991、1992、2001、2002年:第一部份探討各鄉鎮市區的生育率數值間是否存在空間相關性,並進一步瞭解生育率較高(或較低)的地區是否有聚集的現象。第二部份則套用空間迴歸模型探討與生育率數值有關的因素(例如:人口密度、教育程度等),更精確且客觀地提供生育率未來趨勢的建議。
關鍵字:生育率、人口老化、空間統計、空間群聚、空間迴歸
Both the fertility rates and mortality rates, especially the fertility rates, have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. In order to identify the factors that are related to the decrease of fertility rates, unlike the previous works that deal with the aggregate national data, we will study the fertility pattern in township level. We will use the data of age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates in 1991, 1992, 2001, and 2002 in 350 townships of Taiwan area. This study will be separated into two parts. First, we shall explore if there is spatial correlation among 350 townships of Taiwan area and detect if there are spatial clusters for higher fertility townships. The second part of this project will be focused on the spatial regression model. We will use this model to determine the factors that are highly correlated to the dropping of fertility rates.

Key Words: Fertility Rates, Aging Population, Spatial Statistics, Spatial Clustering, Spatial Regression
參考文獻 中文部分
行政院衛生署統計室之89年醫療保健支出統計報告,行政院衛生署網站。http://www.doh.gov.tw
內政部統計處(1963-2003),中華民國台閩地區人口統計。
周世宏(2001)台灣地區死亡率參數模型之研究,逢甲大學統計與精算研究所碩士論文。
張正鵬(1998)台灣地區高齡人口死亡率之預測,國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。
藍銘偉(2003)台灣地區生育率模型之研究,國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。
李美玲(1990)生育步調與生育轉型:台灣地區總生育率之分析,東海大學社會所。
謝純瑩、周國屏(2002)應用空間自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷,人口學刊,25:91-119
黃信誠空間統計簡介,中央研究院統計所網站 http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/~hchuang/spatialstat.html
余清祥、陳楓玲(2003) A Simulation Study of Detecting Clusters: An Application of Taiwan Cancer Mortality,國立政治大學統計系技術報告。
英文部分
Alho, M. J. (1989), Relating changes in life expectancy to changes in mortality, Demography, 26: 705-709.
Anselin, L. (1999), Global spatial autocorrelation, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, http://geog55.geog.uiuc.edu/sa
Anselin, L. (1999), Spatial Regression, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, http://www.spacestat.com
Choynowski, M. (1959), Maps based on probabilities, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 54: 385-388.
Cressie, N.(1993), Statistics for spatial data, revised edition. Willey, New York.
Cressie, N. and Chan, N. H. (1989), Spatial modeling of regional variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80:394-401.
Hacker, J. D. (2003), Rethinking the “early” decline of marital fertility in the United States, Demography, 40:605-620.
Huerta, G., Sanso, B. and Stroud, J. R. (2004), A spatiotemporal model for Mexico City ozone levels, Appl. Statist., 53:231-248.
Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R. (1997), Estimation of spatial regression models with autoregressive errors by two-stage least squares procedures: a serious problem, International regional science review, 20, 1 & 2: 103–111 (1997)
Kaluzny, S. P., Vega, S. C., Cardoso, T. P., and Shelly, A. A. (1997), S+SpatialStats: user’s manual for Windows and UNIX/ Stephen P., Springer, New York.
Lawson, A. B. and Clark, A. (2002), Spatial mixture relative risk models applied to disease mapping, Statist. Med., 21:359-370.
Morgan, S. P. (2003), Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?, Demography, 40:589-603.
Malthus, T. (1798), An essay on the principle of population: A view of its past and present effects on human happiness; with an inquiry into our prospects respecting the future removal or mitigation of the evils which it occasions., J. Johnson, London.
Marshal, R. J. (1991), A review of the statistical analysis of spatial patterns of disease, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 154: 421-441.
Openshaw, S., Craft, A. W., Charlton, M. G. and Birch, J. M. (1988) , Investigation of leukaemia clusters by use of a geographical analysis machine, Lancet, i: 272-273.
Openshaw, S., Turner, A., Turton, I., Macgill, J. (1988), Testing space-time and more complex hyperspace geographical analysis tool, http://www.ccg.leeds.ac.uk/smart/hyper.html
Stroud, J. R., Muller, P. and Sanso, B. (2001), Dynamic model for spatiotemporal data, J. R. Statist. Soc., 63:673-689.
Turnbull, B. W., Iwano, E. J., Burnett, W. S., Howe, H. L. and Clark, L. C. (1990) , Monitoring for clusters of disease: application to leukemia incidence in upstate New York, American Journal of Epidemiology, 132: S136-143.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
91354022
92
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913540221
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 余清祥zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yue, Ching-Syang Jacken_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許添容zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsu, Tien-Jung Alberten_US
dc.creator (作者) 許添容zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hsu, Tien-Jung Alberten_US
dc.date (日期) 2003en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 18:48:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0913540221en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33916-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 統計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91354022zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素,因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率,對人口結構的影響較大。過去台灣地區生育率研究多為整體生育(如:總生育率、年齡別生育率)趨勢的模型,較少探討台灣各地區的特色。為能更深入瞭解台灣生育行為變化的特性,本文將生育率的研究層面由整體的資料,延伸至全台灣地區的各鄉鎮市區(不含離島地區有350個鄉鎮市區),希冀能更精確地找出與台灣地區生育率持續下降的相關因素。本文分為兩個部份,以鄉鎮市區的年齡別婦女生育率與年齡別有偶婦女生育率為研究對象,資料時間為1991、1992、2001、2002年:第一部份探討各鄉鎮市區的生育率數值間是否存在空間相關性,並進一步瞭解生育率較高(或較低)的地區是否有聚集的現象。第二部份則套用空間迴歸模型探討與生育率數值有關的因素(例如:人口密度、教育程度等),更精確且客觀地提供生育率未來趨勢的建議。
關鍵字:生育率、人口老化、空間統計、空間群聚、空間迴歸
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Both the fertility rates and mortality rates, especially the fertility rates, have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. In order to identify the factors that are related to the decrease of fertility rates, unlike the previous works that deal with the aggregate national data, we will study the fertility pattern in township level. We will use the data of age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates in 1991, 1992, 2001, and 2002 in 350 townships of Taiwan area. This study will be separated into two parts. First, we shall explore if there is spatial correlation among 350 townships of Taiwan area and detect if there are spatial clusters for higher fertility townships. The second part of this project will be focused on the spatial regression model. We will use this model to determine the factors that are highly correlated to the dropping of fertility rates.

Key Words: Fertility Rates, Aging Population, Spatial Statistics, Spatial Clustering, Spatial Regression
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的與方法 2
第二章 空間統計介紹 4
第一節 格點空間資料模型(Lattice Data) 4
第二節 地理統計資料模型(Geostatistical Data) 5
第三節 空間點分佈型態(Spatial Point Patterns) 7
第三章 群集模型(Clustering & Clusters) 10
第一節 群集現象(Clustering) 10
第二節 群集狀況(Clusters) 13
第三節 實證結果 15
第四章 空間迴歸模型(Spatial Regression) 19
第一節 空間迴歸介紹 19
第二節 資料及變數說明 21
第三節 實證結果 23
第五章 討論與結論 35
參考文獻 42
附錄一、生育率檢定為顯著群集地區者 44
附錄二、2002年與2001年迴歸模型係數比較表(模型一)— 57
附錄三、2002年與2001年迴歸模型係數比較表(模型二)— , 61
附錄四、2002年與2001年迴歸模型係數比較表(模型四)—log(y) 65
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913540221en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人口老化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間統計zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間群聚zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間迴歸zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fertility Ratesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Aging Populationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial Statisticsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial Clusteringen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial Regressionen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院衛生署統計室之89年醫療保健支出統計報告,行政院衛生署網站。http://www.doh.gov.twzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 內政部統計處(1963-2003),中華民國台閩地區人口統計。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 周世宏(2001)台灣地區死亡率參數模型之研究,逢甲大學統計與精算研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張正鵬(1998)台灣地區高齡人口死亡率之預測,國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 藍銘偉(2003)台灣地區生育率模型之研究,國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李美玲(1990)生育步調與生育轉型:台灣地區總生育率之分析,東海大學社會所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 謝純瑩、周國屏(2002)應用空間自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷,人口學刊,25:91-119zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃信誠空間統計簡介,中央研究院統計所網站 http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/~hchuang/spatialstat.htmlzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 余清祥、陳楓玲(2003) A Simulation Study of Detecting Clusters: An Application of Taiwan Cancer Mortality,國立政治大學統計系技術報告。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alho, M. J. (1989), Relating changes in life expectancy to changes in mortality, Demography, 26: 705-709.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anselin, L. (1999), Global spatial autocorrelation, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, http://geog55.geog.uiuc.edu/sazh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anselin, L. (1999), Spatial Regression, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, http://www.spacestat.comzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Choynowski, M. (1959), Maps based on probabilities, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 54: 385-388.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cressie, N.(1993), Statistics for spatial data, revised edition. Willey, New York.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cressie, N. and Chan, N. H. (1989), Spatial modeling of regional variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80:394-401.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hacker, J. D. (2003), Rethinking the “early” decline of marital fertility in the United States, Demography, 40:605-620.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Huerta, G., Sanso, B. and Stroud, J. R. (2004), A spatiotemporal model for Mexico City ozone levels, Appl. Statist., 53:231-248.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R. (1997), Estimation of spatial regression models with autoregressive errors by two-stage least squares procedures: a serious problem, International regional science review, 20, 1 & 2: 103–111 (1997)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kaluzny, S. P., Vega, S. C., Cardoso, T. P., and Shelly, A. A. (1997), S+SpatialStats: user’s manual for Windows and UNIX/ Stephen P., Springer, New York.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lawson, A. B. and Clark, A. (2002), Spatial mixture relative risk models applied to disease mapping, Statist. Med., 21:359-370.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Morgan, S. P. (2003), Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?, Demography, 40:589-603.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malthus, T. (1798), An essay on the principle of population: A view of its past and present effects on human happiness; with an inquiry into our prospects respecting the future removal or mitigation of the evils which it occasions., J. Johnson, London.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Marshal, R. J. (1991), A review of the statistical analysis of spatial patterns of disease, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 154: 421-441.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Openshaw, S., Craft, A. W., Charlton, M. G. and Birch, J. M. (1988) , Investigation of leukaemia clusters by use of a geographical analysis machine, Lancet, i: 272-273.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Openshaw, S., Turner, A., Turton, I., Macgill, J. (1988), Testing space-time and more complex hyperspace geographical analysis tool, http://www.ccg.leeds.ac.uk/smart/hyper.htmlzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stroud, J. R., Muller, P. and Sanso, B. (2001), Dynamic model for spatiotemporal data, J. R. Statist. Soc., 63:673-689.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Turnbull, B. W., Iwano, E. J., Burnett, W. S., Howe, H. L. and Clark, L. C. (1990) , Monitoring for clusters of disease: application to leukemia incidence in upstate New York, American Journal of Epidemiology, 132: S136-143.zh_TW