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題名 信用衍生性商品評價-馬可夫鏈模型
作者 林明宗
貢獻者 廖四郎
林明宗
關鍵詞 信用違約交換
第n次信用違約交換
馬可夫鏈
CDS
credit default swap
NTDS
n-to-default swaps
Markov chain
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
conditional Markov chain
Gibbs sampler
日期 2006
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:02:05 (UTC+8)
摘要 信用衍生性商品(credit derivatives)是用於移轉信用風險之契約,契約是由保護買方(protection buyer)與保護賣方(protection seller)所簽定,由保護買方支付保險金(可為躉繳或分期支付)以獲得信用的保護,而保護賣方則需在律定之信用事件發生時支付償金予保護買方做為補償。近年來頻傳金融事件,巴塞爾銀行監理委員會(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision)也不得不制定新版的巴塞爾協定以要求銀行強化信用風險控制與分散,而信用衍生性商品亦有助於信用風險的移轉與抵減的功能。
本篇針對利用conditional Markov chain來建構信用違約交換與第n次信用違約交換之評價模型,並利用模擬的方式來求算出各商品之利差。藉由現實中的資料取得參數的估計值放入模型內則可以模擬出各種不同的狀況,進而做出避險的策略。
此外,本篇亦探討如何利用Gibbs sampler來改良conditional Markov chain的模擬方法,以模擬當信用衍生性商品中的資產組合有傳染效果的情況。
參考文獻 [1]Barrette, R. and Ewan, J. (2006), BBA Credit Derivatives Report 2006, British Bankers’ Association.
[2]Bielecki, T.R., Crepey, S., Jeanblanc, M. and Rutkowski, M. (2006), “Valuation of basket credit derivatives in the credit migrations environment”, Handbook on Financial Engineering, J. Birge and V. Linetsky eds., Elsevier, forthcoming.
[3]Bielecki, T.R. and Rutkowski, M. (2002), Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York.
[4]Bielecki, T.R. and Rutkowski, M. (2003), “Dependent Defaults and Credit Migrations”, Applicationes Mathematicae, 30, 121-145.
[5]Bielecki, T. R., Vidozzi, A. and Vicozzi, L. (2006), “An efficient approach to valuation of basket credit products and options on ratings triggered step-up bonds”, working paper, IIT.
[6]Black, F., and Cox, J. (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: Some effects of bond indenture provisions”, Journal of Finance, 31, 351-367.
[7]Casella, G. and George, E. I. (1992), “Explaining the Gibbs Sampler”, The American Statistician, 46(3), 167-174.
[8]Chance , D. (1990), “Default risk and the duration of zero coupon bonds”, Journal of Finance, 45(1), 265-274.
[9]Ethier, S. N. and Kurtz, T.G. (1986), Markov Processes: Characterization and convergence, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
[10]Heath, D., Jarrow, R. and Morton, A. (1992), “Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation”, Econometrica, 60, 77-105.
[11]Ho, T. and Singer, R. (1982), “Bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt”, Journal of Financial Economics, 10, 175-406.
[12]Ho, T. and Singer, R. (1984), “The value of corporate debt with a sinking fund provision”, Journal of Business, 57, 315-592.
[13]Huge, B. and Lando, D. (1999), “Swap Pricing with Two-Sided Default Risk in a Rating-Based Model”, European Finance Review, 3, 239-268.
[14]Hull, J. and White, A. (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and an nth to Default CDS Without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 12(2), 8-23
[15]Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., Turnbull, S. M. (1997), “A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads”, The Review of Financial Studies, 10(2), 481-523.
[16]Jarrow, R. and Turnbull, S. M. (1995)“Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk”, The Journal of Finance, 50(1), 53-85.
[17]Jarrow, R. and Yu, F. (2001), “Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities”, The Journal of Finance, 56(5), 1765-1799.
[18]Kim, J., Ramaswamy, K. and Sundaresan, S. (1993), “Does default risk in coupons affect the valuation of corporate bond?: A contingent claims model, Financial Management 117-131.
[19]Lando, D. (1998), “On Cox Processes and Credit Risky Securities”, Review of Derivatives Research, 2, 99-120.
[20]Li, D. X., “On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, 9, 43-54.
[21]Merton, R. C. (1974) “On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates”, Journal of Finance, 2,449-470.
[22]Merton, R. C. (1977), “On the pricing of contingent claims and the Modigliani-Miller theorem”, Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 125-144.
[23]Ramaswamy, K. and Sundaresan, S. (1986), “The valuation of floating-rate instruments”, Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 251-272.
[24]Resnick, S. (1992), Adventures in Stochastic Processes, Birkhauser, Boston.
[25]Zagst, R (2002), Interest Rate Management, Springer
[26]林晚容,”單一分券違約信用交換與單一分券擔保債權憑證之評價-copula方法”,政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
93352006
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352006
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 廖四郎zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林明宗zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 林明宗zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:02:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:02:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:02:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093352006en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33988-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93352006zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 信用衍生性商品(credit derivatives)是用於移轉信用風險之契約,契約是由保護買方(protection buyer)與保護賣方(protection seller)所簽定,由保護買方支付保險金(可為躉繳或分期支付)以獲得信用的保護,而保護賣方則需在律定之信用事件發生時支付償金予保護買方做為補償。近年來頻傳金融事件,巴塞爾銀行監理委員會(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision)也不得不制定新版的巴塞爾協定以要求銀行強化信用風險控制與分散,而信用衍生性商品亦有助於信用風險的移轉與抵減的功能。
本篇針對利用conditional Markov chain來建構信用違約交換與第n次信用違約交換之評價模型,並利用模擬的方式來求算出各商品之利差。藉由現實中的資料取得參數的估計值放入模型內則可以模擬出各種不同的狀況,進而做出避險的策略。
此外,本篇亦探討如何利用Gibbs sampler來改良conditional Markov chain的模擬方法,以模擬當信用衍生性商品中的資產組合有傳染效果的情況。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的
第二節 研究架構
第二章 文獻探討
第一節 信用違約交換與第N次信用違約交換之介紹
第二節 文獻探討
第三章 評價模型建立
第一節 馬可夫鏈定義與性質
第二節 CDS與NTDS評價模型建立
第四章 數值分析
第一節 建構Conditional Markov Chain
第二節 參數設定
第三節 模擬結果
第五章 結論與建議
第一節 結論
第二節 未來研究建議
參考文獻
附錄
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352006en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用違約交換zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 第n次信用違約交換zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 馬可夫鏈zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CDSen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) credit default swapen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) NTDSen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) n-to-default swapsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Markov chainen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Markov Chain Monte Carloen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) conditional Markov chainen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gibbs sampleren_US
dc.title (題名) 信用衍生性商品評價-馬可夫鏈模型zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1]Barrette, R. and Ewan, J. (2006), BBA Credit Derivatives Report 2006, British Bankers’ Association.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2]Bielecki, T.R., Crepey, S., Jeanblanc, M. and Rutkowski, M. (2006), “Valuation of basket credit derivatives in the credit migrations environment”, Handbook on Financial Engineering, J. Birge and V. Linetsky eds., Elsevier, forthcoming.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3]Bielecki, T.R. and Rutkowski, M. (2002), Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4]Bielecki, T.R. and Rutkowski, M. (2003), “Dependent Defaults and Credit Migrations”, Applicationes Mathematicae, 30, 121-145.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5]Bielecki, T. R., Vidozzi, A. and Vicozzi, L. (2006), “An efficient approach to valuation of basket credit products and options on ratings triggered step-up bonds”, working paper, IIT.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6]Black, F., and Cox, J. (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: Some effects of bond indenture provisions”, Journal of Finance, 31, 351-367.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7]Casella, G. and George, E. I. (1992), “Explaining the Gibbs Sampler”, The American Statistician, 46(3), 167-174.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8]Chance , D. (1990), “Default risk and the duration of zero coupon bonds”, Journal of Finance, 45(1), 265-274.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [9]Ethier, S. N. and Kurtz, T.G. (1986), Markov Processes: Characterization and convergence, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [10]Heath, D., Jarrow, R. and Morton, A. (1992), “Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation”, Econometrica, 60, 77-105.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [11]Ho, T. and Singer, R. (1982), “Bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt”, Journal of Financial Economics, 10, 175-406.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [12]Ho, T. and Singer, R. (1984), “The value of corporate debt with a sinking fund provision”, Journal of Business, 57, 315-592.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [13]Huge, B. and Lando, D. (1999), “Swap Pricing with Two-Sided Default Risk in a Rating-Based Model”, European Finance Review, 3, 239-268.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [14]Hull, J. and White, A. (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and an nth to Default CDS Without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 12(2), 8-23zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [15]Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., Turnbull, S. M. (1997), “A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads”, The Review of Financial Studies, 10(2), 481-523.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [16]Jarrow, R. and Turnbull, S. M. (1995)“Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk”, The Journal of Finance, 50(1), 53-85.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [17]Jarrow, R. and Yu, F. (2001), “Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities”, The Journal of Finance, 56(5), 1765-1799.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [18]Kim, J., Ramaswamy, K. and Sundaresan, S. (1993), “Does default risk in coupons affect the valuation of corporate bond?: A contingent claims model, Financial Management 117-131.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [19]Lando, D. (1998), “On Cox Processes and Credit Risky Securities”, Review of Derivatives Research, 2, 99-120.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [20]Li, D. X., “On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, 9, 43-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [21]Merton, R. C. (1974) “On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates”, Journal of Finance, 2,449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [22]Merton, R. C. (1977), “On the pricing of contingent claims and the Modigliani-Miller theorem”, Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 125-144.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [23]Ramaswamy, K. and Sundaresan, S. (1986), “The valuation of floating-rate instruments”, Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 251-272.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [24]Resnick, S. (1992), Adventures in Stochastic Processes, Birkhauser, Boston.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [25]Zagst, R (2002), Interest Rate Management, Springerzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [26]林晚容,”單一分券違約信用交換與單一分券擔保債權憑證之評價-copula方法”,政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。zh_TW