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題名 信用衍生性商品之擔保債權憑證之評價與分析
作者 李美儀
貢獻者 陳松男
李美儀
關鍵詞 信用衍生性商品
抵押擔保債權憑證
日期 2005
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:02:23 (UTC+8)
摘要 亞洲金融風暴後,全球各國開始重視信用風險(Credit Risk),是以信用衍生性商品開始蓬勃發展,尤其以抵押擔保債權憑證(Collateralized Debt Obligation, CDO)的市場發展迅速,而我國在2002年7月24日公佈「金融資產證券化條例」後,開始了我國CDO發展的里程碑。首先發行幾檔CLO(Collateralized Loan Obligation),2005年後開始有CBO(Collateralized Bond Obligation)的發行。一般CBO的發行動機是為了套利,然而我國CBO發行卻有著截然不同的背景動機,起源於 2004年下半年國內爆發聯合投信事件,因此金管會與投信業者為積極處理結構債,以發行CBO的方式支應國內嚴重的結構債問題。
是以本文在這樣的時空背景下,首先瞭解CDO的分類、架構與運行機制,然後運用One Factor Gaussian Copula建構出標的資產的違約時點或條件違約機率,而後以蒙地卡羅法和Hull 和White(2004)的「Probability Bucket」法建構CDO的評價模型,最後以「玉山銀行債券資產證券化特殊目的信託2005-1受益證券」作為個案分析,分析此商品的架構與特殊機制,然後以此二種方法評價此商品各分券的合理信用價差,並分析不同參數設定對各分券信用價差的影響。
參考文獻 中文部份
高儀慧(2005), “擔保債務憑證(CDO)發展現況及其衍生問題探討”, 證券櫃檯, 107期
廖四郎、李福慶(2005), “擔保債權憑證之評價-Copula分析法”
蔡麗君(2005), ” 隨機違約強度模型下CDO之評價與分析-Copula方法”, 政治大學碩士論文
穆迪信用評等公司(2004), “亞太區公司債行機構違約率與償還率:1990-2003”
英文部份
Andersen, L., J. Sidenius, and S. Basu (2003), “All your hedges in one basket,” Risk,November 2003.
Black, F. and J. C. Cox (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: some effects of bond indenture provisions,” Journal of Finance 31, pages 351-367.
Bluhm, C., L. Overbeck and C. Wagner (2002), “An introduction to credit risk modeling”, Chapman and Hall
Bollerslev, T.(1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterscedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics, 31, pages 307-327.
Cherubini, U., E. Luciano and W. Vecchiato (2004), “Copula methods in finance”, John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
Cifuentes, A. and G. O’Connor (1996), The binomial expectation method applied to CBO/CLO analysis, Moody’s Special Report, Dec 13th 1996
Dickey, D., and W. Fuller(1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pages 12-26.
Duffie, D. and K. Singleton (1999), “Modeling term structure of defaultable bonds,” Review of Financial Studies, 12, pages 687-720.
Duffie, D. and N. Garleanu (2001), “Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations,” Finance Analysis Journal 57(1), pages 41-59.
Engle, R.(1982), “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflations.” Econometrica, 50, pages 987-1008.
Engle, R. (1984), “Wald, Likelihood Ratio, and Lagrange Multiplier Tests in Econometrics.”, In Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator, eds., Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 2. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Fréchet, M.(1935), “Sur le tableaux de corrélation don’t les marges sont données”, Ann. Univ. Lyon, 9, Sect. A, pages 53-77
Hull, J. and A. White (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and an n-th to default CDS without Monte Carlo simulation,” Journal of Derivatives 12(2), pages 8-48.
Hull, J., M. Predescu, and A. White, ”Bond Prices, Default Probabilities and Risk Premiums”, Working Paper
Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull (1995), “Pricing derivatives on financial securities subject to credit risk,” Journal of Finance 50 , pages 53- 85.
Jarrow, R., D. Lando, and S. Turnbull (1997), “A Markov model for the term structure of credit spread,” Review of Financial Studies 10, pages 481- 523.
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.(2001), ”CDO Handbook”
Kalemanova, A., B. Schmid, and R. Werner (2005), “The Normal inverse Gaussian distribution for synthetic CDO”
Laurent, J.P. and J. Gregory(2003), ”Basket default swaps, CDO’s and factor copulas,” working paper, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyon
Li, D.X. (2000), ”Constructing a credit curve”, Risk, November 1998
Li, D.X. (2000), “On default correlation: A copula function approach,” The RiskMetrics Group working paper number 99-07
Lehman Brothers, “The Lehman Brothers Guide to Exotic Credit Derivatives”
Meneguzzo, D. and W. Vecchiato (2004), “Copula Sensitivity in Collateralized Debt Obligations and Basket Default Swaps,” The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 24(1), pages 37-70.
Merton, R. (1974), “On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates,” Journal of Finance 29, pages 449-470.
Moody’s(2006),” Default and Recovery Rates of Corporate Bond Issuers, 1920-2005”, Moody’s Investor Service, February
Nomura(2004), “Correlation Primer”, Nomura Fixed Income Research, August 6
Nomura(2004) “Tranching Credit Risk”, Nomura Fixed Income Research, October 8
Sklar, A. (1959), “Fonctions de repartition a n dimensions et leurs marges,” Pub. Inst. Statisr. Univ. Paris, 8, pages 229-231.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
93352008
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳松男zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李美儀zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李美儀zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:02:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:02:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:02:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093352008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33990-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93352008zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 亞洲金融風暴後,全球各國開始重視信用風險(Credit Risk),是以信用衍生性商品開始蓬勃發展,尤其以抵押擔保債權憑證(Collateralized Debt Obligation, CDO)的市場發展迅速,而我國在2002年7月24日公佈「金融資產證券化條例」後,開始了我國CDO發展的里程碑。首先發行幾檔CLO(Collateralized Loan Obligation),2005年後開始有CBO(Collateralized Bond Obligation)的發行。一般CBO的發行動機是為了套利,然而我國CBO發行卻有著截然不同的背景動機,起源於 2004年下半年國內爆發聯合投信事件,因此金管會與投信業者為積極處理結構債,以發行CBO的方式支應國內嚴重的結構債問題。
是以本文在這樣的時空背景下,首先瞭解CDO的分類、架構與運行機制,然後運用One Factor Gaussian Copula建構出標的資產的違約時點或條件違約機率,而後以蒙地卡羅法和Hull 和White(2004)的「Probability Bucket」法建構CDO的評價模型,最後以「玉山銀行債券資產證券化特殊目的信託2005-1受益證券」作為個案分析,分析此商品的架構與特殊機制,然後以此二種方法評價此商品各分券的合理信用價差,並分析不同參數設定對各分券信用價差的影響。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 信用衍生性商品的介紹 6
第二節 研究方法回顧 14
第三節 結論 24
第三章 研究方法 25
第一節 存活函數與違約強度 25
第二節 一因子模型與Copula函數 27
第三節 Probability Bucket法 31
第四節 抵押擔保債權憑證的評價 35
第五節 參數估計 41
第六節 結論 45
第四章 實證分析 46
第一節 個案商品介紹與分析 46
第二節 資料選取與評價過程 53
第三節 實證結果與分析 61
第四節 敏感度分析 64
第五節 結論 68
第五章 結論與建議 70
第一節 結論 70
第二節 未來發展與建議 71
參考文獻 72
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用衍生性商品zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 抵押擔保債權憑證zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 信用衍生性商品之擔保債權憑證之評價與分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部份zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 高儀慧(2005), “擔保債務憑證(CDO)發展現況及其衍生問題探討”, 證券櫃檯, 107期zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 廖四郎、李福慶(2005), “擔保債權憑證之評價-Copula分析法”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蔡麗君(2005), ” 隨機違約強度模型下CDO之評價與分析-Copula方法”, 政治大學碩士論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 穆迪信用評等公司(2004), “亞太區公司債行機構違約率與償還率:1990-2003”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部份zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, L., J. Sidenius, and S. Basu (2003), “All your hedges in one basket,” Risk,November 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F. and J. C. Cox (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: some effects of bond indenture provisions,” Journal of Finance 31, pages 351-367.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bluhm, C., L. Overbeck and C. Wagner (2002), “An introduction to credit risk modeling”, Chapman and Hallzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bollerslev, T.(1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterscedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics, 31, pages 307-327.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cherubini, U., E. Luciano and W. Vecchiato (2004), “Copula methods in finance”, John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cifuentes, A. and G. O’Connor (1996), The binomial expectation method applied to CBO/CLO analysis, Moody’s Special Report, Dec 13th 1996zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dickey, D., and W. Fuller(1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pages 12-26.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and K. Singleton (1999), “Modeling term structure of defaultable bonds,” Review of Financial Studies, 12, pages 687-720.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and N. Garleanu (2001), “Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations,” Finance Analysis Journal 57(1), pages 41-59.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engle, R.(1982), “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflations.” Econometrica, 50, pages 987-1008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engle, R. (1984), “Wald, Likelihood Ratio, and Lagrange Multiplier Tests in Econometrics.”, In Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator, eds., Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 2. Amsterdam: North Holland.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fréchet, M.(1935), “Sur le tableaux de corrélation don’t les marges sont données”, Ann. Univ. Lyon, 9, Sect. A, pages 53-77zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J. and A. White (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and an n-th to default CDS without Monte Carlo simulation,” Journal of Derivatives 12(2), pages 8-48.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J., M. Predescu, and A. White, ”Bond Prices, Default Probabilities and Risk Premiums”, Working Paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull (1995), “Pricing derivatives on financial securities subject to credit risk,” Journal of Finance 50 , pages 53- 85.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R., D. Lando, and S. Turnbull (1997), “A Markov model for the term structure of credit spread,” Review of Financial Studies 10, pages 481- 523.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.(2001), ”CDO Handbook”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kalemanova, A., B. Schmid, and R. Werner (2005), “The Normal inverse Gaussian distribution for synthetic CDO”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Laurent, J.P. and J. Gregory(2003), ”Basket default swaps, CDO’s and factor copulas,” working paper, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyonzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D.X. (2000), ”Constructing a credit curve”, Risk, November 1998zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D.X. (2000), “On default correlation: A copula function approach,” The RiskMetrics Group working paper number 99-07zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lehman Brothers, “The Lehman Brothers Guide to Exotic Credit Derivatives”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Meneguzzo, D. and W. Vecchiato (2004), “Copula Sensitivity in Collateralized Debt Obligations and Basket Default Swaps,” The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 24(1), pages 37-70.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. (1974), “On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates,” Journal of Finance 29, pages 449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moody’s(2006),” Default and Recovery Rates of Corporate Bond Issuers, 1920-2005”, Moody’s Investor Service, Februaryzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nomura(2004), “Correlation Primer”, Nomura Fixed Income Research, August 6zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nomura(2004) “Tranching Credit Risk”, Nomura Fixed Income Research, October 8zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sklar, A. (1959), “Fonctions de repartition a n dimensions et leurs marges,” Pub. Inst. Statisr. Univ. Paris, 8, pages 229-231.zh_TW