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題名 信用評等分組下之合成型CDO評價
作者 郭銚倫
貢獻者 廖四郎
郭銚倫
關鍵詞 合成型CDO
信用評等分組
CDO
LPGC
日期 2005
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:02:56 (UTC+8)
摘要 CDO經由分券的過程將資產的特有風險與系統性風險予以劃分,主要的目的是讓投資者針對風險承擔的能力購買不同的分券。在信用指數合成型CDO方面,市場實務採用簡化的LPGC(Large Pool Gaussian Copula Model)評價,面對降等與特別事件造成的個別資產違約卻無法有效的評估。本文在LPGC上加入信用評等分組與信用移轉矩陣,以Factor Copula方法建立聯合違約關係,配合高斯積分的數值方法計算出各分券的價格,對於信用評等下降的情況與LPGC做比較,結果顯示分組能夠有效的阻隔資產的特有風險,不會讓其他的資產也受到此資產降等的嚴重影響,因此適當的分組夠使模型對於系統與非系統風險有較佳的反應能力。
參考文獻 Andersen,L. and Sidenius, J., “Extensions to the Gaussian Copula :Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, Journal of Credit Risk, Vol. 1, No. 1,(2004), 29-70.
Chen, R.-R. and Sopranzetti B., “ The Valuation of Default-Triggered Credit Derivatives”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 38, No. 1, (2002), 359-382.
Dowd, K., “Hedge Funds Losses, Credit Derivatives and Dr.Li’s Copula”, Financial Engineering News,(2005) Nov
Duffie, D. and K. Singleton,“Modeling term structures of defaultable bonds”, Review of Financial Studies,12 (1999) 687-720.
Gregory, J. and Laurent, J-P, “Basket default swaps, CDO’s and Factor Cop- ulas”, Working paper, BNP Paribas, (2003)
Gregory, J. and Laurent, J-P “In the core of correlation”, Working paper, BNP Paribas, (2004)
Gregory, J., Burtschell, X. and Laurent, J-P “Beyond the Gaussian copula : stochastic and local correlation” ,Working paper, BNP Paribas, (2005)
Gibson, M. “Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs” ,Working paper, (2004)
Horsewood, R., “The Billion Dollar Question”, ISR international Securitisation Report,(2005)
Horsewood, R., “2005 After Maths”, Financial Engineering News, (2005) Dec
Hull, J. and White, A., “Valuation of a CDO and an nth to Default CDS Without Monte Carlo simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, Vol.12, No. 2, (2004) 8-23.
Krieger, H., “Probability generating functions”, Working paper, Harvey Mudd College (2005)
Kakodkar, A., Martin, B. and Galiani B. “Correlation Trading”, Merrill Lynch , Technical paper,(2003)
Kalemanova, A., Schmid, B. and Werner, R., “The Normal inverse Gaussian distribution for synthetic CDO pricing”, working paper,(2005)
Kauffmann, J., “Credit Derivatives:What a Mezz!”, ING, Technical paper, (2005)
Lehnert, N., Altroc, F., Truck, S., and Wilch, A. “Implied Correlations in CDO Tranches” , Working paper, (2005)
Li, D. X., “on default correlation : A copula Function approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 9, No. 4,(2000), 43-54.
McGinty, L. and Ahluwalia, R., “Credit Correlation: A Guide”,JP Morgan Technical paper, (2004)
McGinty,L. , Ahuwalia, R., and Beinstein, E., “A relative value framework for credit correlation” ,JP Morgan Technical paper, (2004)
Turc, J. and Very, P., (2004), “Quantitative Strategy”,SG, Technical paper, (2004)
Turc, J., Very, P., Benhamou, D. and Alvarez, V., “Quantitative strategy”, SG, Technical paper, (2005)
Whitehouse, M., “How a Formula Ignited Market That Burned Some Big Investors”, The Wall Street Journal, (2005) Sep
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
93352021
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 廖四郎zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 郭銚倫zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 郭銚倫zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:02:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:02:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:02:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093352021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33994-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93352021zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) CDO經由分券的過程將資產的特有風險與系統性風險予以劃分,主要的目的是讓投資者針對風險承擔的能力購買不同的分券。在信用指數合成型CDO方面,市場實務採用簡化的LPGC(Large Pool Gaussian Copula Model)評價,面對降等與特別事件造成的個別資產違約卻無法有效的評估。本文在LPGC上加入信用評等分組與信用移轉矩陣,以Factor Copula方法建立聯合違約關係,配合高斯積分的數值方法計算出各分券的價格,對於信用評等下降的情況與LPGC做比較,結果顯示分組能夠有效的阻隔資產的特有風險,不會讓其他的資產也受到此資產降等的嚴重影響,因此適當的分組夠使模型對於系統與非系統風險有較佳的反應能力。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 前言 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 2
第貳章 文獻探討 4
第一節 擔保債權憑證與相關商品之介紹 4
第二節 保護收入與違約給付金額 10
第三節 文獻回顧 12
第參章 研究方法 16
第一節 Factor Copula模型建立違約相關 16
第二節 條件機率下多資產之違約機率 25
第肆章 實證分析 31
第一節 合成型CDO相關參數 31
第二節 實證結果 33
第伍章 結論與建議 41
第一節 結論 41
第二節 未來方向與建議 42
參考文獻 43
附錄 45

表 次
表4.1:各分券之信用價差 33
表4.2:不同組間相關係數下之分券信用價差 34
表4.3:信用評等在各期不變下矩陣 36
表4.4:評等分組與LPGM各分券下之信用價差 37
表4.5:不同情況下資產分配狀況 38
表4.6:評等分組與LPGM前後信用價差改變情況 39


圖 次
圖1.1:研究架構圖 3
圖2.1:信用違約交換 5
圖2.2:Cash CDO發行架構 7
圖2.3:Synthetic CDO發行架構 7
圖3.1:無人打水之機率分配 27
圖3.2:一人後打水之機率分配 28
圖3.4:三人後打水之機率分配 29
圖4.1:CDO總損失分配(前視) 33
圖4.2:CDO總損失分配(後視) 33
圖4.3:不同組間相關下第五年之總損失( ) 35
圖4.4:不同組間相關下第五年之總損失( ) 35
圖4.5:評等分組與LPGM第五年期之總損失 37
圖4.6:LPGM在兩情況下第五年的總損失配 39
圖4.7:信評分組在兩情況下第五年的總損失配 40
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成型CDOzh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用評等分組zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CDOen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) LPGCen_US
dc.title (題名) 信用評等分組下之合成型CDO評價zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen,L. and Sidenius, J., “Extensions to the Gaussian Copula :Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, Journal of Credit Risk, Vol. 1, No. 1,(2004), 29-70.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen, R.-R. and Sopranzetti B., “ The Valuation of Default-Triggered Credit Derivatives”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 38, No. 1, (2002), 359-382.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dowd, K., “Hedge Funds Losses, Credit Derivatives and Dr.Li’s Copula”, Financial Engineering News,(2005) Novzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and K. Singleton,“Modeling term structures of defaultable bonds”, Review of Financial Studies,12 (1999) 687-720.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gregory, J. and Laurent, J-P, “Basket default swaps, CDO’s and Factor Cop- ulas”, Working paper, BNP Paribas, (2003)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gregory, J. and Laurent, J-P “In the core of correlation”, Working paper, BNP Paribas, (2004)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gregory, J., Burtschell, X. and Laurent, J-P “Beyond the Gaussian copula : stochastic and local correlation” ,Working paper, BNP Paribas, (2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gibson, M. “Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs” ,Working paper, (2004)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Horsewood, R., “The Billion Dollar Question”, ISR international Securitisation Report,(2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Horsewood, R., “2005 After Maths”, Financial Engineering News, (2005) Deczh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J. and White, A., “Valuation of a CDO and an nth to Default CDS Without Monte Carlo simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, Vol.12, No. 2, (2004) 8-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Krieger, H., “Probability generating functions”, Working paper, Harvey Mudd College (2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kakodkar, A., Martin, B. and Galiani B. “Correlation Trading”, Merrill Lynch , Technical paper,(2003)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kalemanova, A., Schmid, B. and Werner, R., “The Normal inverse Gaussian distribution for synthetic CDO pricing”, working paper,(2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kauffmann, J., “Credit Derivatives:What a Mezz!”, ING, Technical paper, (2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lehnert, N., Altroc, F., Truck, S., and Wilch, A. “Implied Correlations in CDO Tranches” , Working paper, (2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D. X., “on default correlation : A copula Function approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 9, No. 4,(2000), 43-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) McGinty, L. and Ahluwalia, R., “Credit Correlation: A Guide”,JP Morgan Technical paper, (2004)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) McGinty,L. , Ahuwalia, R., and Beinstein, E., “A relative value framework for credit correlation” ,JP Morgan Technical paper, (2004)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Turc, J. and Very, P., (2004), “Quantitative Strategy”,SG, Technical paper, (2004)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Turc, J., Very, P., Benhamou, D. and Alvarez, V., “Quantitative strategy”, SG, Technical paper, (2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Whitehouse, M., “How a Formula Ignited Market That Burned Some Big Investors”, The Wall Street Journal, (2005) Sepzh_TW