學術產出-學位論文

題名 金融帳與全球經濟失衡
作者 廖詩奇
貢獻者 江永裕
廖詩奇
關鍵詞 金融帳
全球經濟失衡
經常帳赤字
儲蓄
投資
financial account
global imbalance
current account deficit
saving
investment
日期 2006
上傳時間 17-九月-2009 19:03:20 (UTC+8)
摘要 經濟失衡的議題在20世紀末受到注意,泛指先進國家與新興國家經常帳發展不對稱的情形,尤以美國經常帳赤字的惡化為核心。
由於經濟失衡的現象讓未來全球的經濟成長添加了變數,經濟失衡的原因即成為專家學者間熱烈討論的議題;其中以儲蓄和投資相關的討論最多。有不少學者認為導致全球經常帳失衡的原因是美國儲蓄太低且過度消費,中國為首等新興國家卻又過度儲蓄、投資不足。作者則認為英國、日本為融通美國經常帳赤字的重要來源;先進的小國(盧森堡、新加坡、南韓、比利時)集中投資美國也是造成美國鉅額經常帳赤字的主要原因之一。另外,隨著能源價格的飆漲,油元的勢力以及其對全球經濟失衡現象所造成的影響也不容小覷。
本文以貿易依存度的高低區分出「外貿型」與「內需型」的國家,並且觀察到國際間資金淨流動的方向大致符合以下的趨勢:「外貿型」的國家傾向融資「內需型」的國家;同時金融規模較小的國家融資金融規模較大的國家。另外,金融部門的規模也和跨國資金移動的規模有關。金融規模越大的國家,跨國移動的資金規模越龐大。針對以上的觀察,作者從資金的供給與需求以及金融部門的功能提出解釋。
參考文獻 Alfaro, L., S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and V. Volosovych (2005a), “Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions,” NBER Working Paper No.11696
Alfaro, L., S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and V. Volosovych (2005b), “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries – An Empirical Investigation,” NBER Working Paper No.11901
Backus, David K., E. Henriksen , F. Lambert, and C. Telmer (2006), “Current Account Fact and Fiction,” unpublished manuscript, Available via the Internet:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/CA/BHLT%20latest.pdf
Barth, J.R., G. Caprio Jr., and R. Levine (2002), “The Regulation and Supervision of Banks Around the World,” World Bank Research, Available via the Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/research/projects/bank_regulation.htm
Beck, T. and R. Levine (2000), “Industry Growth and Capital Allocation: Does Having a Market- or Bank-based System Matter?” Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 64, 147-180
Beck, T., R. Levine, and A. Demirguc-Kunt (2000), “A New Database on Financial Development and Structure,” World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 14, 597-605 Available via the Internet: http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:20696167%7EpagePK:64214825%7EpiPK:64214943%7EtheSitePK:469382,00.html (2006)
Bernanke, Ben S. (2005), “The Worldwide Saving Glut and the US Current Account Deficit,” remarks at the Sandridge and Homer Jones Lectures
Bertaut, Carol C., W. L. Criever, and R. W. Tryon (2006), “Understanding US. Cross- Boarder Securities Data,” Federal Reserve Bulletin, Available via the internet: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2006/cross_border_securities.pdf
Bosworth, B. and L. Bell, “The Decline in Household Saving: What Can We Learn from Survey Data?” Working Paper No. 2005-15, Center for Retirement Research (Dec. 2005)
Buffett, Warren E. (2003), “America’s Growing Trade Deficit is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us,” Fortune
Burton, M. and R. Lombra (2000), The Financial System &The Economy: Principles of Money and Banking (2nd ed.), South Western College Publishing
Caballero, R., E. Farhi, and P. Gourinchas (2006), “An Equilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates,” NBER Working Paper No. 11996
Engel, Charles, and John H. Rogers (2006), “The US Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output,” NBER Working Paper No. 11921
Esty, B. C. (2003), “When Do Foreign Banks Finance Domestic Investment? New Evidence on the Importance of Legal and Financial Systems,” Available via the internet: http://207.36.165.114/Denver/Papers/Esty%20Foreign%20Banks%2012-19-02.pdf
Evans, M. and V. Hnatkovska (2005), “International Capital Flows Returns and World Financial Integration,” NBER Working Paper No. 11701
Greenspan, A. (2004), “The Evolving US Payments Imbalance and its Impact on Europe and the World,” Cato Journal, Vol. 24, No. 1-2, Spring/Summer
IMF (2004), “Emerging Markets As Net Capital Exporters,” IMF Global Financial Stability Report, 121-159
Kramer, C. (2006), “Asia’s Investment Puzzle,” Finance and Development, Vol 43 No.2 32-36
Lane, Philip R. (2004), “Empirical Perspectives on Long-Term External Debt,” Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol 4
Lane, Philip R. and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti (2005), “A Global Perspective on External Positions,” IMF Working Paper 05/161
Loayza, N.,K. Schmidt-Hebbel, and L. Serven (2000), “What Drives Private Saving across the World,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82:2,165-181
Lucas, Robert (1990), “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries,” American Economic Review 80, 92-96
Lusardi, A., J. Skinner, and S. Vent (2001), “Saving Puzzles and Saving Policies in the United States,” NBER Working Paper No. 8237
Mccown, T. A., L. C. Plantier, and J. Weeks (2006), “Petrodollars and Global Imbalances,” occasional paper No. 1, Department of the Treasury Office of International Affairs, Abailable via the internet: http://www.treas.gov/offices/international-affairs/occasional-paper-series/docs/petrodollars.pdf
Nguyen, Elena L. (2005), “The International Investment Position of the United States at Yearend 2004,” Survey of Current Business, 30-39
Nsouli, Saleh M. (2006), “Petrodollar Recycling And Global Imbalances ,” Presentation Note, IMF, Available via the internet: http://nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/downfile/DL39O27K45863B381D80018D99018_1.html/Petrodollar_Recycling_And_Global_Imbalances_--_Presentation_by_Saleh_M._Nsouli,_Director,_Offices_in_Europe,_International_Monetary_Fund.html
Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (2005), “Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments,” Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley
Parker, Jonathan A. (1999), “Spendthrift in America? On the Two Decades of Decline in the U.S. Saving Rate” NBER Working Paper No. 7238
Portes, R. and H. Rey (2005), “The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Transaction Flows,” Journal of International Economics , Available via the internet:
http://faculty.london.edu/rportes/research/crossborder.pdf
Rajan, R. G. and L. Zingales (1996), “Financial Dependence and Growth,” NBER Working Paper No. 5758
Rajan, Raghuram (2005), “Global Current Account Imbalance: Hard Landing or Soft Landing,” Conference Paper, Credit Suisse First Boston
Reinsdorf, Marshall B. (2005), “Saving, Wealth, Investment, and the Current-Account Deficit,” Survey of Current Business, Vol. 85 No. 4
Roach, Stephen (2004),“Twin Deficits at the Flashpoint?,” Morgan Stanley, Global Economic Forum
Roubini, Nouriel and Brad Setser (2004), “The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances,” unpublished manuscript , Available via the internet:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/Roubini-Setser-US-External-Imbalances.pdf
Smith, W. and M. Hallward-Driemeier (2005), “Understanding the Investment Climate,” Finance & Development, Vol 42, 40-43
Stiglitz, Joseph (2004), “This Can’t Go On Forever—So It Won’t,” Guardian
Summers, Lawrence H. (2004), “The United States and the Global Adjustment Process,” Stavros S. Niarchos Lecture, Institute for International Economics
Wei, Shang-Jin (2000), “Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 303-346
Wei, Shagn-Jin and Yi Wu (2002), “The Life-And-Death of Implications of Globalization,” NBER Inter-American Seminar in Economics, Monterrey, Mexico
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
93352029
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352029
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 江永裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) 廖詩奇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 廖詩奇zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-九月-2009 19:03:20 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-九月-2009 19:03:20 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-九月-2009 19:03:20 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0093352029en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33997-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93352029zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 經濟失衡的議題在20世紀末受到注意,泛指先進國家與新興國家經常帳發展不對稱的情形,尤以美國經常帳赤字的惡化為核心。
由於經濟失衡的現象讓未來全球的經濟成長添加了變數,經濟失衡的原因即成為專家學者間熱烈討論的議題;其中以儲蓄和投資相關的討論最多。有不少學者認為導致全球經常帳失衡的原因是美國儲蓄太低且過度消費,中國為首等新興國家卻又過度儲蓄、投資不足。作者則認為英國、日本為融通美國經常帳赤字的重要來源;先進的小國(盧森堡、新加坡、南韓、比利時)集中投資美國也是造成美國鉅額經常帳赤字的主要原因之一。另外,隨著能源價格的飆漲,油元的勢力以及其對全球經濟失衡現象所造成的影響也不容小覷。
本文以貿易依存度的高低區分出「外貿型」與「內需型」的國家,並且觀察到國際間資金淨流動的方向大致符合以下的趨勢:「外貿型」的國家傾向融資「內需型」的國家;同時金融規模較小的國家融資金融規模較大的國家。另外,金融部門的規模也和跨國資金移動的規模有關。金融規模越大的國家,跨國移動的資金規模越龐大。針對以上的觀察,作者從資金的供給與需求以及金融部門的功能提出解釋。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 3
第二章 全球經常帳失衡的概況 5
第一節 儲蓄與投資的不對稱 6
第二節 美國金融帳結構分析 9
第三節 衍生問題與討論 12
第三章 經常帳失衡之因素—文獻回顧 14
第一節 美國儲蓄率偏低 14
第二節 新興國家投資不足 16
第三節 金融部門因素 17
第四節 其他原因 19
第四章 金融帳與國際資金移動 23
第一節 資金淨移動的觀察 23
第二節 資金的供給和需求 29
第三節 美國經常帳赤字分析 32
第五章 結論 38
第六章 參考文獻 40
附錄 43


圖目錄
圖 二 1 美國歷年國際收支 5
圖 二 2 主要盈餘國家的經常帳走勢 6
圖 二 3 美國儲蓄投資以及淨出口佔國內生產毛額的比例 7
圖 二 4 德、日、瑞、挪的經常帳餘額和過剩儲蓄 8
圖 二 5 2004年底外國持有美國資產種類以及比例 9
圖 二 6 國外私部門對美國證券的交易情形 11
圖 二 7 美國長期證券和國際投資部位的關係 12
圖 三 1 金融資產減少後的均衡分析 19
圖 三 2 風險調整後的報酬比較(夏普指數) 21
圖 四 1 國際資金淨移動方向示意圖 24
表目錄
表 三 1 全球外匯存底貨幣組成 22
表 四 1 2005年各國經常帳盈餘佔國內生產毛額比例 27
表 四 2 2000-2005年間主要國家的經常帳表現 28
表 四 3 外貿與內需型國家儲蓄減投資佔國內生產毛額的比例 30
表 四 4 外國購買美國長期證券的淨額 32
表 四 5 美國長期證券資產主要外國持有人以及持有部位 33
表 四 6 2005年各國對美國的國際交易帳戶 35
附錄
附圖 1 區域經常帳餘額表現 43
附圖 2 美國國際投資主要資產的交易情形 46
附圖 3 外貿與內需型國家儲蓄減投資餘額佔國內生產毛額的比例 48

附表 1 各國經常帳餘額歷史資料 44
附表 2 各國金融部門發展和貿易依存度衡量 47
附表 3 2004年底金融先進國家資產互相持有情形 49
zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352029en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金融帳zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 全球經濟失衡zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經常帳赤字zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 儲蓄zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) financial accounten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) global imbalanceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) current account deficiten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) savingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) investmenten_US
dc.title (題名) 金融帳與全球經濟失衡zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alfaro, L., S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and V. Volosovych (2005a), “Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions,” NBER Working Paper No.11696zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alfaro, L., S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and V. Volosovych (2005b), “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries – An Empirical Investigation,” NBER Working Paper No.11901zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Backus, David K., E. Henriksen , F. Lambert, and C. Telmer (2006), “Current Account Fact and Fiction,” unpublished manuscript, Available via the Internet:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/CA/BHLT%20latest.pdfzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barth, J.R., G. Caprio Jr., and R. Levine (2002), “The Regulation and Supervision of Banks Around the World,” World Bank Research, Available via the Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/research/projects/bank_regulation.htmzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Beck, T. and R. Levine (2000), “Industry Growth and Capital Allocation: Does Having a Market- or Bank-based System Matter?” Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 64, 147-180zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Beck, T., R. Levine, and A. Demirguc-Kunt (2000), “A New Database on Financial Development and Structure,” World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 14, 597-605 Available via the Internet: http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:20696167%7EpagePK:64214825%7EpiPK:64214943%7EtheSitePK:469382,00.html (2006)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bernanke, Ben S. (2005), “The Worldwide Saving Glut and the US Current Account Deficit,” remarks at the Sandridge and Homer Jones Lectureszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bertaut, Carol C., W. L. Criever, and R. W. Tryon (2006), “Understanding US. Cross- Boarder Securities Data,” Federal Reserve Bulletin, Available via the internet: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2006/cross_border_securities.pdfzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bosworth, B. and L. Bell, “The Decline in Household Saving: What Can We Learn from Survey Data?” Working Paper No. 2005-15, Center for Retirement Research (Dec. 2005)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Buffett, Warren E. (2003), “America’s Growing Trade Deficit is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us,” Fortunezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Burton, M. and R. Lombra (2000), The Financial System &The Economy: Principles of Money and Banking (2nd ed.), South Western College Publishingzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Caballero, R., E. Farhi, and P. Gourinchas (2006), “An Equilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates,” NBER Working Paper No. 11996zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engel, Charles, and John H. Rogers (2006), “The US Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output,” NBER Working Paper No. 11921zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Esty, B. C. (2003), “When Do Foreign Banks Finance Domestic Investment? New Evidence on the Importance of Legal and Financial Systems,” Available via the internet: http://207.36.165.114/Denver/Papers/Esty%20Foreign%20Banks%2012-19-02.pdfzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Evans, M. and V. Hnatkovska (2005), “International Capital Flows Returns and World Financial Integration,” NBER Working Paper No. 11701zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Greenspan, A. (2004), “The Evolving US Payments Imbalance and its Impact on Europe and the World,” Cato Journal, Vol. 24, No. 1-2, Spring/Summerzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) IMF (2004), “Emerging Markets As Net Capital Exporters,” IMF Global Financial Stability Report, 121-159zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kramer, C. (2006), “Asia’s Investment Puzzle,” Finance and Development, Vol 43 No.2 32-36zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lane, Philip R. (2004), “Empirical Perspectives on Long-Term External Debt,” Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol 4zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lane, Philip R. and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti (2005), “A Global Perspective on External Positions,” IMF Working Paper 05/161zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Loayza, N.,K. Schmidt-Hebbel, and L. Serven (2000), “What Drives Private Saving across the World,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82:2,165-181zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lucas, Robert (1990), “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries,” American Economic Review 80, 92-96zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lusardi, A., J. Skinner, and S. Vent (2001), “Saving Puzzles and Saving Policies in the United States,” NBER Working Paper No. 8237zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mccown, T. A., L. C. Plantier, and J. Weeks (2006), “Petrodollars and Global Imbalances,” occasional paper No. 1, Department of the Treasury Office of International Affairs, Abailable via the internet: http://www.treas.gov/offices/international-affairs/occasional-paper-series/docs/petrodollars.pdfzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nguyen, Elena L. (2005), “The International Investment Position of the United States at Yearend 2004,” Survey of Current Business, 30-39zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nsouli, Saleh M. (2006), “Petrodollar Recycling And Global Imbalances ,” Presentation Note, IMF, Available via the internet: http://nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/downfile/DL39O27K45863B381D80018D99018_1.html/Petrodollar_Recycling_And_Global_Imbalances_--_Presentation_by_Saleh_M._Nsouli,_Director,_Offices_in_Europe,_International_Monetary_Fund.htmlzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (2005), “Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments,” Working Paper, University of California, Berkeleyzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Parker, Jonathan A. (1999), “Spendthrift in America? On the Two Decades of Decline in the U.S. Saving Rate” NBER Working Paper No. 7238zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Portes, R. and H. Rey (2005), “The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Transaction Flows,” Journal of International Economics , Available via the internet:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) http://faculty.london.edu/rportes/research/crossborder.pdfzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rajan, R. G. and L. Zingales (1996), “Financial Dependence and Growth,” NBER Working Paper No. 5758zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rajan, Raghuram (2005), “Global Current Account Imbalance: Hard Landing or Soft Landing,” Conference Paper, Credit Suisse First Bostonzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Reinsdorf, Marshall B. (2005), “Saving, Wealth, Investment, and the Current-Account Deficit,” Survey of Current Business, Vol. 85 No. 4zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Roach, Stephen (2004),“Twin Deficits at the Flashpoint?,” Morgan Stanley, Global Economic Forumzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Roubini, Nouriel and Brad Setser (2004), “The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances,” unpublished manuscript , Available via the internet:zh_TW
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