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題名 擔保債權憑證之評價-BET、Copula與Factor Copula方法之比較與分析
作者 張耀洲
Chang, Yao-Chou
貢獻者 廖四郎<br>江彌修
張耀洲
Chang, Yao-Chou
關鍵詞 Copula
CDO
Factor Copula
BET
日期 2004
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:06:41 (UTC+8)
摘要 資產證券化源自1970年代,第一筆擔保債權憑證交易自1988年出現在美國,然後在歐美迅速發展,目前已成為重要的之債券市場。台灣金融產業發展正值轉型期,銀行除面對低利率帶來經營壓力之外,同時亦需規避評等較差之企業貸款的信用風險,而保險業者在低利率時代來臨卻無良好報酬之投資標的可供投資。因此,此環境乃為推動證券化之良好契機。自1997年發生東南亞金融危機,乃至1998年韓國的亞洲金融危機,造成許多跨國企業紛紛裁員、關廠、甚至倒閉,造成一連串的金融危機連鎖效應。因此,公司間或產業間之榮枯是相互關聯的,且均會受總體經濟因素所影響。是以,近年來除信用風險亦成為近年來財務領域上重要議題。理論或實證上,當多個標的資產之信用衍生性商品被加以開發,並用來管理信用風險的時候,需考慮多個標的資產間的違約相關性,方能準確地衡量信用風險。故在信用風險管理與信用衍生性商品的評價中,違約相關性的估計與考量顯得格外重要。結構式或縮減式模型在發展違約相關性的多變數模型中是困難的,因為其衍生性商品價值的理論推導繁複或其數值計算是相當費時。本文在多標的資產之信用風險評價模型中,透過適當個別資產之邊際違約機率與Copula函數之選擇,及其相關參數之估算,即可快速求算具違約相關性之多變數聯合機率函數,以利擔保債權憑證(CDO)之評價。因此,本文針對BET、Copula、Factor Copulas等三種方法與分析架構做一剖析,再以國內153家上市公司所發行無擔保債券作為連結標的之擔保債權憑證為例,進行模擬實證並分析結果。
參考文獻 Andersen, L., J. Sidenius, and S. Basu (2003), “All your hedges in one basket,” RISK, November 2003.
Andersen, L. and J. Sidenius (2004), “Extensions to the Gaussian copula:random recovery and random factor loadings,” working paper, Bank of America, June.
Anson M.J.P., F.J. Fabozzi, M.Choudhry and R.R.Chen(2004), Credit derivatives—instruments, applications, and pricing, John Wiley &Sons, Inc.
Black, F. and J. C. Cox (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: some effects of bond indenture provisions,” Journal of Finance 31, pages 351-367.
Bluhm, C., L. Overbeck and C. Wagner (2002), An introduction to credit risk modeling, Chapman & Hall
Carey M. (1998), “Credit risk in private debt portfolios,” Journal of Finance 53(.4), pages 1363-1387.
Cherubini, U., E. Luciano and W. Vecchiato (2004), Copula methods in finance, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Choudhry, M.(2004),”Structured credit products-credit derivatives & synthetic securitization ”, Wiley Finance
Cifuentes, A. and G. O’Connor (1996), The binomial expectation method applied to CBO/CLO analysis, Moody’s Special Report, Dec 13th 1996
Crosbie, P.J. and J.R. Bohn(2002), ”Modeling default risk”, Moody’s KMV
Crouhy, M., D. Galai and R. Mark(2000), ”A comparative analysis of current credit risk models”, Journal of Banking and Finance,24,pages 59-117.
Davis, M. and V. Lo (2001), “Infectious defaults,” Quantitative Finance 1, pages 382-387.
Delianedis, G. and R. Geske (1998), "Credit risk and risk neutral default probabilities: information about migrations and defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1114, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
Duffie, D. and K. Singleton (1999), “Modeling term structure of defaultable bonds,” Review of Financial Studies, 12, pages 687-720.
Duffie, D. and N. Garleanu (2001), “Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations,” Finance Analysis Journal 57(1), pages 41-59.
Frey, R. and A. J. McNeil (2001), “Modeling dependent defaults,” Working Paper, Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich.
Galiani, S.S.(2003), “Copula functions and their application in pricing and risk managing multiname credit derivative product”, working paper,
Garcia, J.,T. Dwyspelaere , L. Leonard, T. Alderweireld and T.V. Gestel (2005),”Comparing bet and cash flows CDO’s ”, working paper
Giesecke, K. (2001), “Structural modeling of correlated defaults with incomplete information,” working paper, Humboldt University.
Giesecke, K. and S. Weber (2004), “Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses,” Journal of Banking and Finance 28(12),pages 3009-3036.
Gill K.,R. Gambel, R.V. Hrvatin, H. Katz, G. Ong and D. Carroll (2004),”Global rating criteria for collateralized debt obligations”, structured finance, Fitchratings , 13th Sep. 2004
Gordy,M.B.(2000),”A comparative anatomy of credit risk models”, Journal of Banking and Finance,24,pages 119-149.
Gupton, G.M.,C.C. Finger and M. Bhatia(1997), “ CreditMetrics -technical document”, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company
Gupton, G.M. (2004),”Portfolio credit risk models”, credit derivatives –the definitive guide edited by Jon Gregory, Risk Books
Hull, J. and A. White (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and an n-th to default CDS without Monte Carlo simulation,” Journal of Derivatives 12(2), pages 8-48.
Hurst,R.R.(2001),”CDOs backed by ABS and commercial real estate”, Investing in collateralized debt obligations, edited by Frank J. Fabozzi and Laurie S. Goodman
Jarrow, R., D. Lando, and S. Turnbull (1997), “A Markov model for the term structure of credit spread,” Review of Financial Studies 10, pages 481- 523.
Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull (1995), “Pricing derivatives on financial securities subject to credit risk,” Journal of Finance 50 , pages 53- 85.
Jarrow, R. and F. Yu (2001), “Counterparty risk and the pricing of defaultable securities,” The Journal of Finance 56, pages 1765- 1799.
Lando, D. (1998), “On Cox processes and credit risky securities,” Review of Derivatives Research, Vol.2, pages 99-120.
Laurent, J.P. and J. Gregory(2003), ”Basket default swaps, CDO’s and factor copulas,” working paper, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyon
Lee, C.W., C.K. Kuo and J.L. Urrutia (2004), “A Poisson model with common shocks for CDO valuation,” The Journal of Fixed Income 14(3), pages 72-82.
Li, D.X. (2000), “On default correlation: A copula function approach,” The RiskMetrics Group working paper number 99-07
Li, D.X. (2002), “Valuing synthetic CDO tranches using copula function approach,” The RiskMetrics Group working paper
Lin, S.Y. (2004), “Two essays on credit derivatives: CB asset swap and CDO”, Working Paper
Marshall, A.W. and I. Olkin(1988),”Families of multivariate distributions,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 834-841
Meneguzzo, D. and W. Vecchiato (2004), “Copula Sensitivity in Collateralized Debt Obligations and Basket Default Swaps,” The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 24(1), pages 37-70.
Merton, R. (1974), “On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates,” Journal of Finance 29, pages 449-470.
Mina, J. (2001) ,“Mark-to-market, oversight, and sensitivity analysis of CDO’s”, working paper number 01-02, RiskMetrics Group Dec 2001
Moody’s(2001),” Default and recovery rates of corporate bond issuers:2000”,Moody’s Investor Service, February 2001
Perraudin, W. (2004), Structured credit products- pricing, rating, risk management and BaselⅡ, Risk Books
Picone, D.(2004),”A survey of CDOs and their use in bank balance sheet management”, Structured Credit Products-pricing,rating,risk management and BaselⅡ edited by William Perraudin
Schorin, C. and S. Weinreich (2001),”Introduction to collateralized debt obligations”,Investing in collateralized debt obligations, edited by Frank J. Fabozzi and Laurie S. Goodman
Schonbucher J. and D. Schubert (2001), “Copula-dependent default risk in intensity models,” working paper, Department of Statistics, Bonn University.
Rogge E. and J. Schonbucher (2003), “Modeling dynamic portfolio credit risk,” working paper.
Sklar, A. (1959), “Fonctions de repartition a n dimensions et leurs marges,” Pub. Inst. Statisr. Univ. Paris, 8, pages 229-231.
Wilde, T.(1997), “CreditRisk+: a credit risk management framework”, Credit Suisse First Boston
Zhou, C. (2001), “An analysis of default correlations and multiple defaults,” The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 14(2), pages 555-576.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
92352006
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923520061
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 廖四郎<br>江彌修zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張耀洲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Yao-Chouen_US
dc.creator (作者) 張耀洲zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Yao-Chouen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:06:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:06:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:06:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0923520061en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34019-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92352006zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 資產證券化源自1970年代,第一筆擔保債權憑證交易自1988年出現在美國,然後在歐美迅速發展,目前已成為重要的之債券市場。台灣金融產業發展正值轉型期,銀行除面對低利率帶來經營壓力之外,同時亦需規避評等較差之企業貸款的信用風險,而保險業者在低利率時代來臨卻無良好報酬之投資標的可供投資。因此,此環境乃為推動證券化之良好契機。自1997年發生東南亞金融危機,乃至1998年韓國的亞洲金融危機,造成許多跨國企業紛紛裁員、關廠、甚至倒閉,造成一連串的金融危機連鎖效應。因此,公司間或產業間之榮枯是相互關聯的,且均會受總體經濟因素所影響。是以,近年來除信用風險亦成為近年來財務領域上重要議題。理論或實證上,當多個標的資產之信用衍生性商品被加以開發,並用來管理信用風險的時候,需考慮多個標的資產間的違約相關性,方能準確地衡量信用風險。故在信用風險管理與信用衍生性商品的評價中,違約相關性的估計與考量顯得格外重要。結構式或縮減式模型在發展違約相關性的多變數模型中是困難的,因為其衍生性商品價值的理論推導繁複或其數值計算是相當費時。本文在多標的資產之信用風險評價模型中,透過適當個別資產之邊際違約機率與Copula函數之選擇,及其相關參數之估算,即可快速求算具違約相關性之多變數聯合機率函數,以利擔保債權憑證(CDO)之評價。因此,本文針對BET、Copula、Factor Copulas等三種方法與分析架構做一剖析,再以國內153家上市公司所發行無擔保債券作為連結標的之擔保債權憑證為例,進行模擬實證並分析結果。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一節 研究動機
第二節 研究目的
第三節 研究架構

第二章 文獻回顧
第一節 信用風險評價模式
第二節 CDO評價模型之介紹
第三節 擔保債權憑證(CDO)商品之介紹

第三章 研究方法與模型設定
第一節 BET方法
第二節 Factor Copula方法
第三節 Copula方法

第四章 實證方法與結果分析
第一節 資料選取與研究對象
第二節 收益比較分析
第三節 敏感度分析


第一節 結論
第二節 建議
zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923520061en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Copulaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CDOen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Factor Copulaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) BETen_US
dc.title (題名) 擔保債權憑證之評價-BET、Copula與Factor Copula方法之比較與分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, L., J. Sidenius, and S. Basu (2003), “All your hedges in one basket,” RISK, November 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, L. and J. Sidenius (2004), “Extensions to the Gaussian copula:random recovery and random factor loadings,” working paper, Bank of America, June.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anson M.J.P., F.J. Fabozzi, M.Choudhry and R.R.Chen(2004), Credit derivatives—instruments, applications, and pricing, John Wiley &Sons, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F. and J. C. Cox (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: some effects of bond indenture provisions,” Journal of Finance 31, pages 351-367.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bluhm, C., L. Overbeck and C. Wagner (2002), An introduction to credit risk modeling, Chapman & Hallzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Carey M. (1998), “Credit risk in private debt portfolios,” Journal of Finance 53(.4), pages 1363-1387.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cherubini, U., E. Luciano and W. Vecchiato (2004), Copula methods in finance, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Choudhry, M.(2004),”Structured credit products-credit derivatives & synthetic securitization ”, Wiley Financezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cifuentes, A. and G. O’Connor (1996), The binomial expectation method applied to CBO/CLO analysis, Moody’s Special Report, Dec 13th 1996zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Crosbie, P.J. and J.R. Bohn(2002), ”Modeling default risk”, Moody’s KMVzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Crouhy, M., D. Galai and R. Mark(2000), ”A comparative analysis of current credit risk models”, Journal of Banking and Finance,24,pages 59-117.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Davis, M. and V. Lo (2001), “Infectious defaults,” Quantitative Finance 1, pages 382-387.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Delianedis, G. and R. Geske (1998), "Credit risk and risk neutral default probabilities: information about migrations and defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1114, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and K. Singleton (1999), “Modeling term structure of defaultable bonds,” Review of Financial Studies, 12, pages 687-720.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and N. Garleanu (2001), “Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations,” Finance Analysis Journal 57(1), pages 41-59.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Frey, R. and A. J. McNeil (2001), “Modeling dependent defaults,” Working Paper, Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Galiani, S.S.(2003), “Copula functions and their application in pricing and risk managing multiname credit derivative product”, working paper,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Garcia, J.,T. Dwyspelaere , L. Leonard, T. Alderweireld and T.V. Gestel (2005),”Comparing bet and cash flows CDO’s ”, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Giesecke, K. (2001), “Structural modeling of correlated defaults with incomplete information,” working paper, Humboldt University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Giesecke, K. and S. Weber (2004), “Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses,” Journal of Banking and Finance 28(12),pages 3009-3036.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gill K.,R. Gambel, R.V. Hrvatin, H. Katz, G. Ong and D. Carroll (2004),”Global rating criteria for collateralized debt obligations”, structured finance, Fitchratings , 13th Sep. 2004zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gordy,M.B.(2000),”A comparative anatomy of credit risk models”, Journal of Banking and Finance,24,pages 119-149.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gupton, G.M.,C.C. Finger and M. Bhatia(1997), “ CreditMetrics -technical document”, Morgan Guaranty Trust Companyzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gupton, G.M. (2004),”Portfolio credit risk models”, credit derivatives –the definitive guide edited by Jon Gregory, Risk Bookszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J. and A. White (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and an n-th to default CDS without Monte Carlo simulation,” Journal of Derivatives 12(2), pages 8-48.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hurst,R.R.(2001),”CDOs backed by ABS and commercial real estate”, Investing in collateralized debt obligations, edited by Frank J. Fabozzi and Laurie S. Goodmanzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R., D. Lando, and S. Turnbull (1997), “A Markov model for the term structure of credit spread,” Review of Financial Studies 10, pages 481- 523.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull (1995), “Pricing derivatives on financial securities subject to credit risk,” Journal of Finance 50 , pages 53- 85.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and F. Yu (2001), “Counterparty risk and the pricing of defaultable securities,” The Journal of Finance 56, pages 1765- 1799.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lando, D. (1998), “On Cox processes and credit risky securities,” Review of Derivatives Research, Vol.2, pages 99-120.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Laurent, J.P. and J. Gregory(2003), ”Basket default swaps, CDO’s and factor copulas,” working paper, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyonzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lee, C.W., C.K. Kuo and J.L. Urrutia (2004), “A Poisson model with common shocks for CDO valuation,” The Journal of Fixed Income 14(3), pages 72-82.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D.X. (2000), “On default correlation: A copula function approach,” The RiskMetrics Group working paper number 99-07zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D.X. (2002), “Valuing synthetic CDO tranches using copula function approach,” The RiskMetrics Group working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lin, S.Y. (2004), “Two essays on credit derivatives: CB asset swap and CDO”, Working Paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Marshall, A.W. and I. Olkin(1988),”Families of multivariate distributions,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, pages 834-841zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Meneguzzo, D. and W. Vecchiato (2004), “Copula Sensitivity in Collateralized Debt Obligations and Basket Default Swaps,” The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 24(1), pages 37-70.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. (1974), “On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates,” Journal of Finance 29, pages 449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mina, J. (2001) ,“Mark-to-market, oversight, and sensitivity analysis of CDO’s”, working paper number 01-02, RiskMetrics Group Dec 2001zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moody’s(2001),” Default and recovery rates of corporate bond issuers:2000”,Moody’s Investor Service, February 2001zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Perraudin, W. (2004), Structured credit products- pricing, rating, risk management and BaselⅡ, Risk Bookszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Picone, D.(2004),”A survey of CDOs and their use in bank balance sheet management”, Structured Credit Products-pricing,rating,risk management and BaselⅡ edited by William Perraudinzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schorin, C. and S. Weinreich (2001),”Introduction to collateralized debt obligations”,Investing in collateralized debt obligations, edited by Frank J. Fabozzi and Laurie S. Goodmanzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schonbucher J. and D. Schubert (2001), “Copula-dependent default risk in intensity models,” working paper, Department of Statistics, Bonn University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rogge E. and J. Schonbucher (2003), “Modeling dynamic portfolio credit risk,” working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sklar, A. (1959), “Fonctions de repartition a n dimensions et leurs marges,” Pub. Inst. Statisr. Univ. Paris, 8, pages 229-231.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wilde, T.(1997), “CreditRisk+: a credit risk management framework”, Credit Suisse First Bostonzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zhou, C. (2001), “An analysis of default correlations and multiple defaults,” The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 14(2), pages 555-576.zh_TW