Publications-Theses

題名 勞退保證投資收益率制度及制度轉換選擇權之研究
The Selection of Rate of Return Guarantee and the Choice between Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit for Labor Pension Plan in Taiwan
作者 李翎竹
Lee, Ling-Chu
貢獻者 李志宏
Lee, Jie-Haun
李翎竹
Lee, Ling-Chu
關鍵詞 保證投資收益率制度
制度選擇
個人偏好
選擇權評價
制度轉換選擇權
蒙地卡羅模擬
退休基金
資產配置
Investment return guarantee
Institutional design
Personal preference
Option pricing
Switching option
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Pension fund
Asset allocation
日期 2006
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:24:21 (UTC+8)
摘要 我國勞工退休金新制自2005年7月1日開始實施,由過去的確定給付制改為具有確定提撥特色的「個人帳戶制」。對於勞工而言,確定提撥制和過去確定給付制不同之處在於承擔退休金投資風險的責任將由雇主轉由個人承擔。如何透過退休機制的設計以降低退休金的投資風險是近年來的重要議題,因此本文主要從個人偏好與風險的觀點探討保證投資收益率制度與制度轉換選擇權等兩個降低確定提撥制投資風險的重要配套措施。
在本論文的第一篇研究中發現,資產配置與國際投資對保證成本的影響頗大,在個人可選擇資產配置的情況下,高投資風險的資產選擇將造成政府未來龐大的或有負債。為了解決政府保證成本過高造成代內與代間的財富移轉,本文從使用者付費與個人效用的觀點探討保證投資收益率制度的設計,發現藉由設立保證投資收益上限可提升風險趨避者、損失趨避者與後悔趨避者等偏好下的預期效用,且能降低個人管理下方風險所需的提撥成本與退休計畫參加者所需繳交的保證費用,故建議政府可將投資收益率上限納入保證投資收益率制度,供退休計畫參加者選擇合於本身偏好的保證收益率上限。
在近來許多國家的公、民營退休體系由過去以確定給付制改為確定提撥制,為了降低在確定提撥制下的退休金投資風險,在美國的佛羅里達州之公務人員退休體系中,存在著可供個人選擇是否轉換到確定給付制的機制。在我國勞退新制中除了從過去的確定給付制改為確定提撥制外,亦輔以「年金保險制」供勞工選擇與轉換,若年金保險制具有確定給付制的特徵,則勞工等於是擁有一個從確定提撥轉換轉到確定給付制的選擇權,因此制度選擇權的探討對我國而言亦是相當地重要。在本論文的第二篇研究中發現,當風險趨避程度越高則轉換至確定給付制的機率越高,轉換到確定給付制的高峰期會出現在開始工作的初期與屆臨退休之際等兩段期間。隨著工作期間的延長,個人轉換到確定給付制的機率越低,但仍可有效地提升退休金的所得替代率與達到降低退休金下方風險的效果,在加入退休制度初期不得轉換的限制之後,會降低轉換到確定給付制的機率。
The Labor Retirement Pension Act enacted in 2005 introduced defined contribution (DC) pension plan for substituting the traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plan. In the defined contribution pension plan, the investment risk is transferred to the participants. However, the design of rate of return guarantee makes the investment risk less severe for participants. In the first essay, we find that the asset allocation and foreign investment have large impact on the guarantee cost: the high risky investment may result in large potential liability of the government in the future if participants have the investment portfolio choice. This study develops a framework to analyze design of rate of return guarantee from the financial engineering and user paid principle view. We find that the cap of investment return guarantee not only increases the expected utility of risk aversion, loss aversion and regret aversion, but also decreases the contribution cost to participant associated with managing the downside risk.
Around the world, the defined contribution (DC) plans have been the primary trend of pension reform in the both public and private sector. In an attempt to decrease the investment risk associated with DC plan, the public employees are provided with an option to buy back DB plan in the Florida State of U.S.A. In the second essay, we find that the higher level of risk aversion is, the higher probability to buy back DB plan is. During the employee’s early years of service and as the employees near retirement, the probability to exercise the option is the highest. The probability to exercise the option is decreasing with the years of service being increasing; the option also increase the pension replacement rate as well as decrease the downside risk of pension. The probability to exercise the option is lower, when the option to buy back the DB plan is prohibited during the employee’s early years of service.
參考文獻 符寶玲,1999,「退休金制度與管理」,華泰書局,台灣。
黃介良、李翎竹、陳秋蓉,2003,「投資收益保證制度之探討—以退撫基金為例」,證券市場發展季刊,第十五卷,第四期,37-68。
Albrecht, Peter, Joachim Coche, Raimond Maurer and Ralph Rogalla, 2006, “Understanding and AllocatingImplications of Optimal Investment Risks in Policies for Hybrid Pension Plans: Sponsor and Member Perspectives,” Pension Research Council Working Paper, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
Allen, Everett T., Joseph J. Melone, Jerry S. Rosenbloom and Jack L. Vanderhei, 1997, “Pension Planning: Pension, Profit-sharing, and Other Deferred Compensation Plans,” New York: The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Barber, B.M. and T. Odean, 1999, “The Courge of Misguided Convictions,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 56, No. 6, 41-55.
Barberis, Nicholas and Huang, Ming, 2001, “Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 56, Iss. 4, 1247-1292.
Bell, David, 1982, “Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty,” Operations Research, Vol. 30, Iss. 5, 961-981.
Bell, David, 1983, “Risk Premium for Decision Regret”, Management Science, Vol. 29, Iss.10, 1156-1166.
Berkelaar, A., R. Kouwenberg, and T. Post, 2004, “Optimal Portfolio Choice under Loss Aversion,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 86, Iss. 4, 973-987.
Braun, M. and A. Muermann, 2004, “The Impact of Regret on the Demand for Insurance,” Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.71, No.4, 737-767.
Dodonova, Anna, 2003, “Applications of Regret Theory to Asset Pricing,” Working paper, University of Iowa.
Feldstein, Martin, 2005, “Reducing the Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform,” NBER working paper series, No. 11084.
Feldstein, Martin and Elena Ranguelova, 2000, “Accumulated Pension Collars: A Market Approach to Reduce the Investment-Based Social Security Reform,” NBER working paper series, No.7861.
Feldstein, Martin and Elena Ranguelova, 2001, “Individual Risk in An Investment-Based Social Security System”, American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 4, 1116-1125.
Forsyth, Peter A., Kenneth R. Vetzal, and Heath A. Wildcliff, 2003, “Hedging Segregated Fund Guarantees,” In Olivia S. Mitchell and Kent Smetters, eds., The Pension Challenge: Risk Transfers and Retirement Income Security. Oxford University Press. 214-237.
Gneezy, U. and Potters, J., 1997, “An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 112, No.2, 631-645.
Gomes, Francisco J., 2005, “Portfolio Choice and Trading Volume with Loss-Averse Investors,” Journal of Business, Vol. 78, No. 2, 675-706.
Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, 1979, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,” Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, 263-291.
Larrick, R. P. & Boles, T. L., 1995, “Avoiding Regret in Decisions with Feedback: A Negotiation Example,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 63, Iss. 1, 87-97.
Lanchance, Marie-Eve and Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003, “Guarantee Individual Accounts,” American Economic Review, May, 257-260.
Loomes, G., R. Sugden, 1982, “Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty,” Economic Journal, Vol. 92, No. 368, 805-824.
Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Stephen P. Zeldes, 1991, “The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-stockholders,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 29, Iss. 1, 97-112.
Maurer, Raimond and Christian Schlag. 2002. “Money-Back Guarantees in Individual Account Pensions: Evidence from the German Pension Reform.” Centre for Financial Studies Working Paper No. 2002/03, JohanWolfgang Goethe-Universit¨at, Frankfurt am Main.
Meyer, D.J., and Meyer J. 1999, “Risk References in the Asset Pricing Model,” Working Paper, Michigan State University.
Mitchell, Olivia S., Gary R. Mottola, Stephen P. Utkus, and Takeshi Yamaguchi, 2006, “The Inattentive Participant: Portfolio Trading Behavior in 401(k) Plans,” American Risk and Insurance Association Meetings, Washington, DC.
Muermann, Alexander, Olivia S. Mitchell, and Jacqueline M. Volkman, 2005, “Regret, Portfolio Choice, and Guarantees in Defined Contribution Schemes,” Pension Research Council Working Paper WP-2005-17, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
Nataraj, Sita and John B. Shoven, 2003, “Comparing the Risks of Social Security with and without Individual Accounts,” American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 2, 348-353.
Odean, Terrance, 1998, “Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?” Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, Iss.5, 1775–1798.
Pennacchi, G., 1999, “The Value of Guarantees on Pension Fund Returns,” Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 66, No. 2, 219-237.
Poterba, J.M., 2004, “Portfolio Risk and Self-directed Retirement Saving Programmes,” The Economic Journal, Vol. 114, Iss. 494, C26–C51.
Shefrin, Hersh and Meir Statman, 1985, “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 40, No. 3, 777-790.
Smetters, Kent, 2002, “Controlling the Cost of Minimum Benefit Guarantees in Public Pension Conversions,” The Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol. 1, No.1, 9-34.
Snorre, L., 2004, “Relative Guarantees,” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Vol. 29, Iss. 2, 187-209.
Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman, 1992, “Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 5, No. 4, 297-323.
王儷玲、楊曉文、黃泓智、李永琮,2006,「勞退新制下個人帳戶制與年金保險制轉換選擇權價之研究」,財務金融學刊,即將刊登。
林苡辰,2004,「勞工退休金條例草案之轉換選擇權的評價與分析」,國立中央財務管理研究所碩士論文。
陳芬苓、張森林,2006,「附加年金制的遠期契約價值與政策意涵分析」,證券市場發展季刊,第十八卷,第一期,1-30。
林忠機、張傳章、陳依仁,2005,「天然資源專案投資計畫之評價-動態選擇權模擬法」,證券市場發展季刊,第十七卷,第四期,87-120。
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Feldstein, Martin, 2005, “Reducing the Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform,” NBER working paper series, No. 11084.
Feldstein, Martin and Elena Ranguelova, 2001, “Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System”, American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 4, 1116-1125.
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Lanchance, Marie-Eve and Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003, “Guarantee Individual Accounts,” American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 2, 257-260.
Lanchance, Marie-Eve, Olivia S. Mitchell and Kent Smetters, 2003, “Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy Back A Defined Benefit Promise,” The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1-16.
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
90357504
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0903575041
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李志宏zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Jie-Haunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李翎竹zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lee, Ling-Chuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李翎竹zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lee, Ling-Chuen_US
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:24:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:24:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:24:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0903575041en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34081-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 90357504zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 我國勞工退休金新制自2005年7月1日開始實施,由過去的確定給付制改為具有確定提撥特色的「個人帳戶制」。對於勞工而言,確定提撥制和過去確定給付制不同之處在於承擔退休金投資風險的責任將由雇主轉由個人承擔。如何透過退休機制的設計以降低退休金的投資風險是近年來的重要議題,因此本文主要從個人偏好與風險的觀點探討保證投資收益率制度與制度轉換選擇權等兩個降低確定提撥制投資風險的重要配套措施。
在本論文的第一篇研究中發現,資產配置與國際投資對保證成本的影響頗大,在個人可選擇資產配置的情況下,高投資風險的資產選擇將造成政府未來龐大的或有負債。為了解決政府保證成本過高造成代內與代間的財富移轉,本文從使用者付費與個人效用的觀點探討保證投資收益率制度的設計,發現藉由設立保證投資收益上限可提升風險趨避者、損失趨避者與後悔趨避者等偏好下的預期效用,且能降低個人管理下方風險所需的提撥成本與退休計畫參加者所需繳交的保證費用,故建議政府可將投資收益率上限納入保證投資收益率制度,供退休計畫參加者選擇合於本身偏好的保證收益率上限。
在近來許多國家的公、民營退休體系由過去以確定給付制改為確定提撥制,為了降低在確定提撥制下的退休金投資風險,在美國的佛羅里達州之公務人員退休體系中,存在著可供個人選擇是否轉換到確定給付制的機制。在我國勞退新制中除了從過去的確定給付制改為確定提撥制外,亦輔以「年金保險制」供勞工選擇與轉換,若年金保險制具有確定給付制的特徵,則勞工等於是擁有一個從確定提撥轉換轉到確定給付制的選擇權,因此制度選擇權的探討對我國而言亦是相當地重要。在本論文的第二篇研究中發現,當風險趨避程度越高則轉換至確定給付制的機率越高,轉換到確定給付制的高峰期會出現在開始工作的初期與屆臨退休之際等兩段期間。隨著工作期間的延長,個人轉換到確定給付制的機率越低,但仍可有效地提升退休金的所得替代率與達到降低退休金下方風險的效果,在加入退休制度初期不得轉換的限制之後,會降低轉換到確定給付制的機率。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The Labor Retirement Pension Act enacted in 2005 introduced defined contribution (DC) pension plan for substituting the traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plan. In the defined contribution pension plan, the investment risk is transferred to the participants. However, the design of rate of return guarantee makes the investment risk less severe for participants. In the first essay, we find that the asset allocation and foreign investment have large impact on the guarantee cost: the high risky investment may result in large potential liability of the government in the future if participants have the investment portfolio choice. This study develops a framework to analyze design of rate of return guarantee from the financial engineering and user paid principle view. We find that the cap of investment return guarantee not only increases the expected utility of risk aversion, loss aversion and regret aversion, but also decreases the contribution cost to participant associated with managing the downside risk.
Around the world, the defined contribution (DC) plans have been the primary trend of pension reform in the both public and private sector. In an attempt to decrease the investment risk associated with DC plan, the public employees are provided with an option to buy back DB plan in the Florida State of U.S.A. In the second essay, we find that the higher level of risk aversion is, the higher probability to buy back DB plan is. During the employee’s early years of service and as the employees near retirement, the probability to exercise the option is the highest. The probability to exercise the option is decreasing with the years of service being increasing; the option also increase the pension replacement rate as well as decrease the downside risk of pension. The probability to exercise the option is lower, when the option to buy back the DB plan is prohibited during the employee’s early years of service.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 4
第二章 勞退保證投資收益率制度之選擇:從個人偏好與風險管理之觀點 11
第一節 緒論 13
第二節 文獻探討 18
第三節 研究設計 21
第四節 模擬結果分析 34
第五節 結論 46
參考文獻 49
附錄 效用之約當財富推導 52
第三章 從風險觀點探討確定提撥與確定給付計畫之制度轉換選擇權 70
第一節 緒論 71
第二節 確定提撥與確定給付制度轉換選擇權 74
第三節 研究設計 77
第四節 模擬結果分析 85
第五節 結論 89
參考文獻 91
第四章 結論 97
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0903575041en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 保證投資收益率制度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 制度選擇zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 個人偏好zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 選擇權評價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 制度轉換選擇權zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 蒙地卡羅模擬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休基金zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產配置zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investment return guaranteeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Institutional designen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Personal preferenceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Option pricingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Switching optionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monte-Carlo Simulationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Pension funden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Asset allocationen_US
dc.title (題名) 勞退保證投資收益率制度及制度轉換選擇權之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Selection of Rate of Return Guarantee and the Choice between Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit for Labor Pension Plan in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 符寶玲,1999,「退休金制度與管理」,華泰書局,台灣。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃介良、李翎竹、陳秋蓉,2003,「投資收益保證制度之探討—以退撫基金為例」,證券市場發展季刊,第十五卷,第四期,37-68。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Albrecht, Peter, Joachim Coche, Raimond Maurer and Ralph Rogalla, 2006, “Understanding and AllocatingImplications of Optimal Investment Risks in Policies for Hybrid Pension Plans: Sponsor and Member Perspectives,” Pension Research Council Working Paper, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allen, Everett T., Joseph J. Melone, Jerry S. Rosenbloom and Jack L. Vanderhei, 1997, “Pension Planning: Pension, Profit-sharing, and Other Deferred Compensation Plans,” New York: The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barber, B.M. and T. Odean, 1999, “The Courge of Misguided Convictions,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 56, No. 6, 41-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barberis, Nicholas and Huang, Ming, 2001, “Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 56, Iss. 4, 1247-1292.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bell, David, 1982, “Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty,” Operations Research, Vol. 30, Iss. 5, 961-981.zh_TW
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