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題名 投資人過度自信行為之研究:以初級市場為例
作者 林裕斌
Lin, Yu-Pin
貢獻者 徐燕山
林裕斌
Lin, Yu-Pin
關鍵詞 行為財務學
過度自信
自我歸因偏誤
競價拍價
初級市場
Behavior finance
overconfidence
self-attribution bias
auction
primary market
日期 2004
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:25:29 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文利用國內投資人參與民國八十五年一月至八十九年四月間77家IPO競價拍賣的投標資料為樣本,來探討投資人過度自信以及自我歸因偏誤的情形。實證結果發現:過度自信假說於對個人投資人在初級市場的投資行為仍有適用,並且男女皆有過度自信的現象,但沒有足夠證據顯示男性較女性過度自信。最後當投資者上次報酬為正時,投資者會更積極的投標。而上次報酬為負時,對其下次投標標價的影響並不顯著。此點符合自我歸因假說的推論。
參考文獻 中文文獻:
1. 周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、鞏怡霖,民國91年, “行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望”,證券市場發展季刊 14:2,1~47頁
2. 陳虹霖,民國90年, “國內共同基金投資人過度自信行為之研究”,國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
3. 盧育明,行為財務學,商鼎文化出版社,台北 2003年一版。
4. 龔怡霖,民國90年,“行為財務學:文獻回顧與未來展望”,國立中央大學財務管理所碩士論文。
5. James Moniter著,郭敏華譯, “Behavioural Finance: Insights into irrational minds and markets”譯名:行為財務學,智勝文化,台北2004年一版。
英文文獻:
1. Barber, Brad M. and T. Odean, 2000, “Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors,” Journal of Finance, 55, 773-806.
2. Barber, Brad M. and T. Odean, 2001, “Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence and common stock investment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 261-292.
3. Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean, 2001, ”The internet and the Investors,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, No. 1, 41-54.
4. Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean , 2002, ”Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?”, Review of Financial Studies, 15, 455-488.
5. De Bondt, W. F. M., 1993, ”Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and Return,” International Journal of Forecasting, 9,355-371.
6. De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler, 1995, “Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective.” Robert A, Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, and W.Ziemba, ed. : Finance, Handbools in Operations Research and Management Science, 9,385-410.
7. Field, L. C., 1997, “Is institutional investment in initial public offerings related to the long-run performance of these firms?” Working paper, Penn State University.
8. Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic and S. Lichtenstein, 1977,“Knowing with uncertainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1,288-299.
9. Grossman, Sanford J., and Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1980, “On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,” American Economic Reviews, 70, 393-408.
10. Haugen, Robert A., 1999, “The inefficient stock market,” New Jersey, Prentice Hall.
11. Kahneman , Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979, “Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk,” Econometrica, 47.2(March), 263-91.
12. Kahneman, Daniel, and Mark W. Riepe, 1998, “Aspects of investor psychology”, Journal of Portfolio Management, 53-65.
13. Meehan, Anita M., and Willis F. Overton, 1986, “Gender Differences in Expectancies for Success and Performance on Piagetian Spatial Tasks,” Merrill-Palmer Quarterly, 32, 1887-1934.
14. Odean, Terrance, 1998b, “Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average,” Journal of Finance ,53, 1887-1934.
15. Odean, Terrance, 1999, “Do investors trade too much?” American Economic Review, 89, 1279-1298.
16. Philip J. Lee, Stephen L. Taylor, and Terry S. Walter, 1999, “IPO Underpricing Explanations: Implications from Investor Application and Allocation Schedules,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 34, 425-444.
17. Ritter, Jay R., 1998, “Initial public offerings,” Contemporary Finance Digest, 2, 5-30.
18. Shleifer, A., 2000, “Inefficient Market,” Oxford U. Press, Oxford.
19. Simon Gervais and Terrance Odean, 2001, “Learning to be overconfident,” The Review of Financial Studies, 14, 1-27.
20. Yenshan Hsu and Cheng-Yi Shiu, 2002, “IPO Underpricing and Information Proxy: A Note,” Journal of Financial Studies, Vol.10 No.3, 63-88.
21. Yenshan Hsu and Cheng-Yi Shiu, 2004, “Information Content of Investors’ Bid in IPO Auctions: Evidence from Taiwan,” Journal of Financial Studies, Vol.12 No.1, 27-52.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
92357002
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923570021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 徐燕山zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林裕斌zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Yu-Pinen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林裕斌zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Yu-Pinen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:25:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:25:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:25:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0923570021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34085-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92357002zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文利用國內投資人參與民國八十五年一月至八十九年四月間77家IPO競價拍賣的投標資料為樣本,來探討投資人過度自信以及自我歸因偏誤的情形。實證結果發現:過度自信假說於對個人投資人在初級市場的投資行為仍有適用,並且男女皆有過度自信的現象,但沒有足夠證據顯示男性較女性過度自信。最後當投資者上次報酬為正時,投資者會更積極的投標。而上次報酬為負時,對其下次投標標價的影響並不顯著。此點符合自我歸因假說的推論。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論
第一節 研究目的與動機 1
第二節 研究架構與流程 6
第二章 競價拍賣制度介紹與文獻探討
第一節 競價拍賣承銷配售方式之介紹 8
第二節 文獻探討 12
一、行為財務理論模型 12
二、過度自信理論 16
第三章 研究資料分析與研究方法
第一節 研究資料分析 22
第二節 研究方法、假說與變數說明 32
一、過度自信 32
二、自我歸因偏誤 36
第四章 實證結果分析
第一節 過度自信實證分析 40
第二節 自我歸因實證分析 46
第五章 結論與建議
第一節 研究結論 49
第二節 後續研究建議 50
第三節 研究限制 51
參考文獻 52

圖表次

圖1-1開放競拍後,採用競拍做為上市櫃承銷的家數變化……….…………….2
表1-1研究期間內採用競拍公司的類別及數量…………………………………..2
圖1-2研究流程圖…………………………………………………………………..7
圖2-1兩階段承銷流程圖…………………………………………………………10
圖2-2價值函數……………………………………………………………………15
圖2-3決策權數函數………………………………………………………………15
表3-1敘述統計:七十七家在樣本期間a以競拍為承銷方式的公司:
按投資人類別(個人投資人或機構投資人)分類…………………………24
表3-2 敘述統計:七十七家在樣本期間以競拍為承銷方式的公司:
按性別分類…………………………………………………………………26
圖3-1參與次數人數比例分配:按投資人類別分類…..…………………………29
圖3-2參與次數人數比例分配:按性別分類…………..…………………………29
圖3-3得標家數人數比例分配:按身份別分類………..…………………………31
圖3-4得標家數人數比例分配:按性別分類…………..…………………………31
表3-3自我歸因樣本數變化表……………………………………………………38
表4-1得標家數與報酬間的關係:按身份別分類……..…………………………43
表4-2得標家數與報酬間的關係:按性別分類…………..………………………44
表4-3自我歸因迴歸實證結果……………………………………………………48
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923570021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為財務學zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度自信zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自我歸因偏誤zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 競價拍價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 初級市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Behavior financeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) overconfidenceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) self-attribution biasen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) auctionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) primary marketen_US
dc.title (題名) 投資人過度自信行為之研究:以初級市場為例zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、鞏怡霖,民國91年, “行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望”,證券市場發展季刊 14:2,1~47頁zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. 陳虹霖,民國90年, “國內共同基金投資人過度自信行為之研究”,國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. 盧育明,行為財務學,商鼎文化出版社,台北 2003年一版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. 龔怡霖,民國90年,“行為財務學:文獻回顧與未來展望”,國立中央大學財務管理所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. James Moniter著,郭敏華譯, “Behavioural Finance: Insights into irrational minds and markets”譯名:行為財務學,智勝文化,台北2004年一版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文文獻:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Barber, Brad M. and T. Odean, 2000, “Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors,” Journal of Finance, 55, 773-806.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Barber, Brad M. and T. Odean, 2001, “Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence and common stock investment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 261-292.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean, 2001, ”The internet and the Investors,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, No. 1, 41-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Barber, Brad M. and Terrance Odean , 2002, ”Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?”, Review of Financial Studies, 15, 455-488.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. De Bondt, W. F. M., 1993, ”Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and Return,” International Journal of Forecasting, 9,355-371.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler, 1995, “Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective.” Robert A, Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, and W.Ziemba, ed. : Finance, Handbools in Operations Research and Management Science, 9,385-410.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Field, L. C., 1997, “Is institutional investment in initial public offerings related to the long-run performance of these firms?” Working paper, Penn State University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic and S. Lichtenstein, 1977,“Knowing with uncertainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1,288-299.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. Grossman, Sanford J., and Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1980, “On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,” American Economic Reviews, 70, 393-408.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Haugen, Robert A., 1999, “The inefficient stock market,” New Jersey, Prentice Hall.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Kahneman , Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979, “Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk,” Econometrica, 47.2(March), 263-91.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. Kahneman, Daniel, and Mark W. Riepe, 1998, “Aspects of investor psychology”, Journal of Portfolio Management, 53-65.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. Meehan, Anita M., and Willis F. Overton, 1986, “Gender Differences in Expectancies for Success and Performance on Piagetian Spatial Tasks,” Merrill-Palmer Quarterly, 32, 1887-1934.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. Odean, Terrance, 1998b, “Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average,” Journal of Finance ,53, 1887-1934.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15. Odean, Terrance, 1999, “Do investors trade too much?” American Economic Review, 89, 1279-1298.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16. Philip J. Lee, Stephen L. Taylor, and Terry S. Walter, 1999, “IPO Underpricing Explanations: Implications from Investor Application and Allocation Schedules,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 34, 425-444.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. Ritter, Jay R., 1998, “Initial public offerings,” Contemporary Finance Digest, 2, 5-30.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. Shleifer, A., 2000, “Inefficient Market,” Oxford U. Press, Oxford.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Simon Gervais and Terrance Odean, 2001, “Learning to be overconfident,” The Review of Financial Studies, 14, 1-27.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20. Yenshan Hsu and Cheng-Yi Shiu, 2002, “IPO Underpricing and Information Proxy: A Note,” Journal of Financial Studies, Vol.10 No.3, 63-88.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21. Yenshan Hsu and Cheng-Yi Shiu, 2004, “Information Content of Investors’ Bid in IPO Auctions: Evidence from Taiwan,” Journal of Financial Studies, Vol.12 No.1, 27-52.zh_TW