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題名 勞工保險老年給付年金制之資產負債管理探討
作者 莊竣名
貢獻者 王儷玲
莊竣名
關鍵詞 存續期間
資產負債管理
利率風險
勞保基金
duration
asset liability management
interest risk
labor insurance fund
日期 2002
上傳時間 2009-09-18
摘要 本研究運用的投資組合理論(Portfolio Theory)與免疫理論(Immunization Theory)建構資產負債管理模型,希望在於免除利率風險下,能夠極大化勞保基金的投資報酬率。本研究探討勞保老年給付年金制實行後,勞保基金在資產負債管理之下最適資產配置。我們以勞保局編印之「勞工保險統計年報」中勞保基金民國81年到91年實際投資的資料及勞保局委託研究之精算報告對於老年給付年金制實行後未來勞保基金的給付預測值,在不同年金選擇率以及不同的費率與控管年限下,根據勞保基金資產與負債的存續期間,建議勞保基金最適的投資組合,並計算資產負債管理成本,研究結果發現:
1 年金選擇率為100%及80%時,勞保費率提高至8.3%僅能確保未來30年與40年勞保基金不會因為利率變動而導致基金破產甚至無力清償,但考慮年限為50年時,國內市場無法找到存續期間可以配合的投資工具,無法規避利率風險。年金選擇率為50%時,由於未來各年之勞保的給付獲得舒緩,使得資產配置所需的存續期間也降低,故當勞保費率提高 至8%即可確保勞保基金未來50年可以規避利率風險的危機,且在國內市場上可以找到投資工具配合。
2. 要使勞保基金免於利率風險的考慮年限越長,其投資組合的重心應該從現行的銀行存款移轉到債券及股票與受益憑證。
3. 進行資產負債管理是需要成本的,若以資產負債管理前後效率前緣下的投資報酬率的差異為資產負債管理成本,在年金選擇率100%時資產負債管理平均成本為0.3695%;選擇率80%時平均成本為0.434%;年金選擇率為50%時資產負債管理平均成本為0.384%,研究結果顯示資產負債管理平均成本都低於0.5%以下,故建議勞保基金應盡早進行資產負債管理以因應老年給付年金化後利率風險對於勞保基金財務上的衝擊。
This paper investigates the Asset-Liability Management for Labor Insurance Fund. We utilize Immunization Theory and Portfolio Theory selection model to immunize the surplus of Labor Insurance Funds against interest-rate fluctuations and to maximize expected return of Labor Insurance Funds simultaneously. In addition, we use the data from Labor Insurance Funds from 1992 to 2002 to demonstrate the implementation of our model. We calculate the optimal asset allocation and the ALM cost under different lump-sum/annuity selection ratio、time horizon and contribution rates. The empirical results from this study show that:
1. Assuming 100% and 80% participants choice annuity, to prevent the insolvency of Labor Insurance Fund from interest-rate fluctuations in 30 and 40 years, the Labor Insurance premium must increase to 8.3%. Assuming 50% participants choice annuity, to prevent the insolvency of Labor Insurance Fund from interest-rate fluctuations in 50 years, the Labor Insurance premium must increase to 8%.
2. To prolong the period over which the Labor Insurance Funds can immunize its surplus against interest-rate fluctuations, a large proportion of the investment asset should be allocate from bank deposit to bond and stock.
3. ALM needs cost. Assuming 100% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.3695%.Assuming 80% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.434%.Assuming 50% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.384%. We find the average ALM cost is very small under any lump-sum/annuity selection ratio. Therefore, we suggest Bureau of Labor Insurance should start to implement ALM as soon as possible to avoid the affect of interest-rate fluctuations.
參考文獻 參考文獻
中文部分:
1.葉順山,「勞工保險老年給付改採年金給付制度之精算與評估」,2002年。
2.黃介良,「退休基金的投資策略及其資產配置」,公務人員退撫基金季刊第五期,1997b。
3.中華民國勞工保險年鑑,1999。
4.古瀨正敏撰,賴建業譯,「美國壽險公司之新經營策略」1992年。
5.施淑芳,「壽險公司資產負債管理對公司價值影響之研究」,1997年。
6.賴幸瑜,「資產負債管理-平均存續其間在壽險監理運用之研究」,國立政治大學保險研究所論文,1997年。
7.陳登源,「退撫基金投資哲學與運用概況」,公務人員退休撫卹監理委員會,1998年。
8.李明黛,「利率風險對公司經營之影響:台灣壽險市場之實證研究」,國立政治大學保險研究所論文,2002年。
9.李孟茹,「我國勞工保險老年給付改採年金制之研究」,國立台灣大學國家發展研究所論文,2002年。
10.陳學裕,「政府基金管理與運用績效之研究-以勞工保險基金為例」,中國文化大學勞工研究所論文,2002年。
11.彭愛蘋,「公務人員退休撫卹基金之資產負債管理」,國立政治大學保險研究所論文,2001年。
12.謝冠生,「一般帳戶投資型年金之資產負債管理:免疫理論與最適資產配置之應用」,國立政治大學保險研究所論文,2001年。
英文部分
1.Arnott, Robert D (1985), “The Pension Sponsor’s View of Asset Allocation”, Financial Analysts Journal , p17-23.
2.Allen, E.T, J.J.Melone, J.S Rosenbloom, and J.L.vanderhei, Pension Planning 7th ed .,Richard D. Irwin, INC (1998)
3.Bierwag, G.O , George G. Kaufman and Alden Toeves (1983), “Duration:Its Development and Use in Bond Portfolio Management” Financial Analysts Journal, July-August, pp15-35.
4.Bookstaber, Richard and Jeremy Gold(1988) , “In Search of the Liability Asset.”., Financial Analysts Journal, January-February, p70-80.
5.Bostock, Paul, Paul Woolley and Martin Duffy(1989), “Duration-Based Asset Allocation.” Financial Analyst Journal, January-February, p53-61.
6.Bodie (1990), “Pension as Retirement Income Insurance”, Journal of Economic, pp28-49.
7.Bitner, J.W, and R.A Goddard (1992),”Successful Bank Asset/Liability Management:A Guide to the Future Beyond Gap”.
8.Boender, C.G.E, P.C. Van Aalst, and F. Heemskerk, 1996, Modelling and Management of Assets and Liability of Pension Plans in the Netherlands, in Worldwide Asset and Liability Modelling(Cambridge University Press).
9.Barney, L.D., 1997, ”The Relation Between Capital Structure, Interest Rate Sensitivity, and Market Value in the Property-Liability Industry” , The Journal of Risk and Insurance,64(4),p733-p738.
10.Cox, C. Johnathan E. Ingersoll, and Stephen A. Ross. ”Duration and the Measurement of Basis Rosk.” Journal of Business (1979), p51-61.
11.Choie, Kenneth S. (1992), “Caveats in Immunization of Pension Liability.” Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter, pp54-69.
12.Douglas, L.G. ,(1990) “Bond Risk Analysis:A Guide to Duration and Convexity”, New York Institute of Finance 29.
13.Gagnon, Louis, and Lewis D. Johnson. “Dynamic Immunization Under Stochastic Interest Rates.” The Journal of Portfolio Managenment (1994),P48-p54.
14.Hicks, J.R., Value and Capital, Oxford:Clarendon Press, 1939
15.Keintz, Richard J. and Clyde P. Stickney (1980), “Immunization of Pension Funds and Sensitivity to Actuarial Assumption.” Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 47 , p222-238.
16.Leibowitz, Martin L .and Roy D. Henriksson(1988) , “Portfolio Optimization Within a Surplus Framework. “ Financial Analysts Journal, March-April, p43-51.
17.Logue. Dennis E. , Managing Corporate Plans, Hanper Business. (1991)
18.Logue, Dennis E. and Jack S. Rader, Managing Pension Plans:A Comprehensive Guide to Improving Plan Performance, Havard Business School Press, 1998.
19.Macaulay, Frederick R, The Movement of Interest Rates, Bonds, Yield, and Stock Prices in the United States Since 1965, New York:Columbia University Press, 1938.
20.Markowitz, Harry, Portfolio Selection, New York:John Wiley&Sons,1959.
21.Redington, FM(1952),”Review of the Principle of Life office Valuations.” Journal of the Institute of Actuaries78, PP.286-340.
22.Maloney J. Kevin and Dennis E. Logue. “Neglected Complexities in Structured Bond Portforlios. “ The Journal of Portfolio Management (1989),P59-68.
23.Staking,K.B. and Babbel,D.F.,1995, ”The Relation Between Capital Structure, Interest Rate Sensitivity, and Market Value in the Property-Liability Industry” , The Journal of Risk and Insurance,62(4),p690-p718.
24.Saunders, Anthony, Financial Institution Management:A Modern Perspective,3rd edition, Irwin Publishing Co,2000。
25.Tzeng, Larry Y. , Jennifer L . Wang and June H. Soo (2000), “Surplus Management under A Stochastic Process.” Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol 67, p451-462.
26.Vasicek, Oldrich.” A Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure” The Journal of Financial Economics(1977), p177-p188.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
90358014
91
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090358014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王儷玲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莊竣名zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 莊竣名zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2002en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2009-09-18-
dc.date.available 2009-09-18-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2009-09-18-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0090358014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34106-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 90358014zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究運用的投資組合理論(Portfolio Theory)與免疫理論(Immunization Theory)建構資產負債管理模型,希望在於免除利率風險下,能夠極大化勞保基金的投資報酬率。本研究探討勞保老年給付年金制實行後,勞保基金在資產負債管理之下最適資產配置。我們以勞保局編印之「勞工保險統計年報」中勞保基金民國81年到91年實際投資的資料及勞保局委託研究之精算報告對於老年給付年金制實行後未來勞保基金的給付預測值,在不同年金選擇率以及不同的費率與控管年限下,根據勞保基金資產與負債的存續期間,建議勞保基金最適的投資組合,並計算資產負債管理成本,研究結果發現:
1 年金選擇率為100%及80%時,勞保費率提高至8.3%僅能確保未來30年與40年勞保基金不會因為利率變動而導致基金破產甚至無力清償,但考慮年限為50年時,國內市場無法找到存續期間可以配合的投資工具,無法規避利率風險。年金選擇率為50%時,由於未來各年之勞保的給付獲得舒緩,使得資產配置所需的存續期間也降低,故當勞保費率提高 至8%即可確保勞保基金未來50年可以規避利率風險的危機,且在國內市場上可以找到投資工具配合。
2. 要使勞保基金免於利率風險的考慮年限越長,其投資組合的重心應該從現行的銀行存款移轉到債券及股票與受益憑證。
3. 進行資產負債管理是需要成本的,若以資產負債管理前後效率前緣下的投資報酬率的差異為資產負債管理成本,在年金選擇率100%時資產負債管理平均成本為0.3695%;選擇率80%時平均成本為0.434%;年金選擇率為50%時資產負債管理平均成本為0.384%,研究結果顯示資產負債管理平均成本都低於0.5%以下,故建議勞保基金應盡早進行資產負債管理以因應老年給付年金化後利率風險對於勞保基金財務上的衝擊。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper investigates the Asset-Liability Management for Labor Insurance Fund. We utilize Immunization Theory and Portfolio Theory selection model to immunize the surplus of Labor Insurance Funds against interest-rate fluctuations and to maximize expected return of Labor Insurance Funds simultaneously. In addition, we use the data from Labor Insurance Funds from 1992 to 2002 to demonstrate the implementation of our model. We calculate the optimal asset allocation and the ALM cost under different lump-sum/annuity selection ratio、time horizon and contribution rates. The empirical results from this study show that:
1. Assuming 100% and 80% participants choice annuity, to prevent the insolvency of Labor Insurance Fund from interest-rate fluctuations in 30 and 40 years, the Labor Insurance premium must increase to 8.3%. Assuming 50% participants choice annuity, to prevent the insolvency of Labor Insurance Fund from interest-rate fluctuations in 50 years, the Labor Insurance premium must increase to 8%.
2. To prolong the period over which the Labor Insurance Funds can immunize its surplus against interest-rate fluctuations, a large proportion of the investment asset should be allocate from bank deposit to bond and stock.
3. ALM needs cost. Assuming 100% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.3695%.Assuming 80% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.434%.Assuming 50% participants choice annuity, the average ALM cost is 0.384%. We find the average ALM cost is very small under any lump-sum/annuity selection ratio. Therefore, we suggest Bureau of Labor Insurance should start to implement ALM as soon as possible to avoid the affect of interest-rate fluctuations.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄
第一章 緒論………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………………..2
第二節 研究方法………………………………………………………………....2
第三節 研究範圍與限制…………………………………………………………..2
第四節、論文架構…………………………………………………………………4
第二章、文獻探討…………………………………………………………4
第一節 勞保基金體制沿革與特性之介紹………………………………………..4
第二節 退休金的資產負債管理…………………………………………………..8
第三節 平均存續期間與免疫理論之介紹………………………………………..9
第四節 退休基金資產配置相關文獻……………………………………………17
第三章 模型架構與實證資料…………………………………………….21
第一節 模型架構與理論模型應用……………………………………………….21
第二節 實證資料來源…………………………………………………………….26
第四章 實證結果…………………………………………………………..29
第一節 各項資產的存續期間…………………………………………………….29
第二節 勞保基金最適資產配置………………………………………………….32
第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………63
第一節 實證結果………………………………………………………………….63
第二節 對於勞保基金的建議…………………………………………………….64
第三節 後續研究的建議………………………………………………………….65參考文獻…………………………………………………………………..66



圖目錄

圖2-1 存續期間與到期日……………………………………………………....12
圖4-1模型一之效率前緣圖…………………………………………………….32
圖4-2費率6.5%選擇率100%資產負債管理效率前緣圖…………………… 38
圖4-3費率7%選擇率100%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………….40
圖4-4費率8%選擇率100%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………….42
圖4-5費率8.3%選擇率100%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………..43
圖4-6研究年限20選擇率100%資產負債管理效率前緣圖………………….44
圖4-7研究年限30年選擇率100%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………….45
圖4-8費率6.5%選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖………………………47
圖4-9費率7%選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖………………………...49
圖4-10費率8%選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………….51
圖4-11費率8.3%選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………..53
圖4-12研究年限20年選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………….54
圖4-13研究年限30年選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………….55
圖4-14研究年限40年選擇率80%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………….56
圖4-15費率6.5%選擇率50%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………. 57
圖4-16費率7%選擇率50%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………….58
圖4-17費率8%選擇率50%資產負債管理效率前緣圖……………………….61

















表目錄
表3-1民國91年勞保基金的資產配置概況表……………………………………… 28
表4-1 受益憑證存續期間之迴歸分析………………………………………………… 30
表4-2 受益憑證存續期間之迴歸分析………………………………………….............31
表4-3 各項投資工具整理……………………………………………………………. 31
表 4-4 勞保基金81-90年投資報酬率………………………………………………..33
表4-5 選擇率100%不同提撥率與不同考慮年限資產配置所需之存續期間………..34
表4-6 選擇率80%不同提撥率與不同考慮年限資產配置所需之存續期間…………35
表4-7 選擇率50%不同提撥率與不同考慮年限資產配置所需之存續期間…………36
表4-8資產負債管理成本的比較………………………………………………………62
附表一 不考慮存續期間最適之產配置
附表二 費率6.5% 選擇率100%考慮年限20年最適之產配置
附表三 費率7% 選擇率100%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表四 費率7% 選擇率100%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表五 費率8% 選擇率100%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表六 費率8% 選擇率100%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表七 費率8.3% 選擇率100%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表八 費率8.3% 選擇率100%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表九 費率6.5% 選擇率80%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表十 費率6.5% 選擇率80%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表十一 費率7% 選擇率80%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表十二 費率7% 選擇率80%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表十三 費率8% 選擇率80%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表十四 費率8% 選擇率80%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表十五 費率8% 選擇率80%考慮年限40年最適資產配置
附表十六 費率8.3% 選擇率80%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表十七 費率8.3% 選擇率80%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表十八 費率8.3% 選擇率80%考慮年限40年最適資產配置
附表十九 費率6.5% 選擇率50%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表二十 費率6.5% 選擇率50%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表二十一 費率7% 選擇率50%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表二十二 費率7% 選擇率50%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表二十三 費率7% 選擇率50%考慮年限40年最適資產配置
附表二十四 費率8% 選擇率50%考慮年限20年最適資產配置
附表二十五 費率8% 選擇率50%考慮年限30年最適資產配置
附表二十六 費率8% 選擇率50%考慮年限40年最適資產配置
附表二十七 費率8% 選擇率50%考慮年限50年最適資產配置
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090358014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 存續期間zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產負債管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 利率風險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勞保基金zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) durationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) asset liability managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) interest risken_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) labor insurance funden_US
dc.title (題名) 勞工保險老年給付年金制之資產負債管理探討zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分:zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.李孟茹,「我國勞工保險老年給付改採年金制之研究」,國立台灣大學國家發展研究所論文,2002年。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.彭愛蘋,「公務人員退休撫卹基金之資產負債管理」,國立政治大學保險研究所論文,2001年。zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部分zh_TW
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