| dc.contributor.advisor | 黃泓智<br>余清祥 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | <br> | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 劉明昌 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 劉明昌 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2002 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2009-09-18 | - |
| dc.date.available | 2009-09-18 | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 2009-09-18 | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0090358020 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34108 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 風險管理與保險研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 90358020 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 91 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 摘要 平均壽命因死亡率下降而延長以及主要死因轉變為中老年疾病或慢性病，尤其中老年疾病與慢性病必須長期治療且不易根治的特性，使得高齡化社會對於醫療保健的需求將逐漸上升。基於上述背景本文以全民健保資料庫重大傷病資料研究台灣地區在壽命延長以及死因轉變之下醫療需求以及疾病負荷，其中醫療需求研究是以保險精算的方式推估未來台灣地區醫療需求金額以及每人平均門診醫療費用成本；疾病負荷研究是以生命表的方式計算因疾病損失年數與健康餘命分別以死因除外的方式以及健康餘命佔平均餘命的比例分析死因轉變對於國民壽命與健康存活時間的影響。研究中發現醫療需求有以近似線性方式上升的可能，醫療費用成本也隨之逐漸上升，醫療費用的上升趨勢將形成商業醫療健康保險的挑戰；在壽命延長以及死因轉變之下因疾病損失年數有上升的趨勢，並且若中老年與慢性疾病發生率持續不變健康存活時間佔平均壽命的比例將逐漸下降。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Abstract The health care demand becomes larger and larger in the aging society result from the improvement of mortality and the geriatric and chronic diseases become major dead causes now. Under this circumstance, we aim to evaluate the future health care demand and the burden of disease in Taiwan by using critical illness and injury data among National Health Insurance database. In this research, we evaluate the future health care demand amount and outpatient expenditure per capita in Taiwan in actuarial way and evaluate the burden of disease by calculating the year lost due to disease and health life expectancy. According to research result, we argue that the demand of health care is increasing in almost linear way and the increase of health care cost becomes the important challenge to commercial health insurance. In additional, the year lost due to disease is increasing and the proportion of health life expectancy to life expectancy is decreasing result from life becomes longer and longer and the change of major dead causes. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄第一章 前言……………………………………………………………………… 1第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………… 1第二節 研究目標…………………………………………………………… 6第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………………… 8第一節 國民健康與疾病現況研究………………………………………… 8第二節 馬可夫模型與醫療成本推估……………………………………… 10第三節 健康餘命…………………………………………………………… 12第三章 台灣地區重大傷病現況………………………………………………… 14第一節 資料來源…………………………………………………………… 14第二節 台灣地區重大傷病盛行率概況…………………………………… 15第三節 台灣地區重大傷病發生率概況…………………………………… 17第四節 台灣地區重大傷病死亡率概況…………………………………… 19第五節 台灣地區重大傷病門診醫療支出概況…………………………… 21第四章 2002~2026年重大傷病盛行率、死亡率以及患病人數推模式與推估結果……………………………………… 23第一節 2002~2026重大傷病盛行率推估………………………………… 23第二節 2002~2026重大傷病死亡率推估………………………………… 26第三節 2002~2026重大傷病患病人數推估……………………………… 29第五章 重大傷病門診醫療需求推估與因重大傷病損失年數推估…………… 33第一節 重大傷病門診醫療費用成本估計與與總體醫療費用推估……… 33第二節 因重大傷病損失年數計算與推估………………………………… 39第六章 結論與建議……………………………………………………………… 45第一節 結論………………………………………………………………… 45第二節 建議………………………………………………………………… 47參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………… 48附錄………………………………………………………………………………… 50圖目錄【圖一】澳大利亞粗死亡率變化趨勢………………………………………………..2【圖二】1984年WHO疾病與死亡關係意示圖……………………………………...3【圖三】紐西蘭糖尿病推估流程……………………………………………………..9【圖四】1997~2001重大傷病盛行率……………………………………………….17【圖五】1999~2001重大傷病發生率……………………………………………….18【圖六】1997、2000重大傷病死亡率與一般死亡率……………………………….20【圖七】平均每人(次)及平均每人門診醫療次數重大傷病門診醫療費用……….22【圖八】羅吉斯曲線示意圖…………………………………………………………24【圖九】2002~2026重大傷病患病人數與成長趨勢圖…………………………….32【圖十】16與38歲平均每人1~25年收支平衡重大傷病門診醫療成本趨勢圖….36【圖十一】重大傷病死亡率不隨時間遞降對隨時間遞降保費比率年齡分佈曲線圖……………………………………………………………………………………..37【圖十二】2002~2026重大傷病醫療費用現金流量推估圖………………………38【圖十三】1998~2000年單一年齡因重大傷病損失年數………………………….41【圖十四】1998~2000健康餘命佔平均餘命百分比……………………………….42【圖十五】2002~2026年單一年齡因重大傷病損失年數………………………….43【圖十六】2002~2026健康餘命佔平均餘命百分比…………………………….…44表目錄【表一】1935與2001年台灣地區五大主要死因……………………………………1【表二】2000年全民健保高齡及非高齡每人醫療費用比較……………………….4【表三】重大傷病門診醫療資料內容………………………………………………14【表四】常見死亡率模型特性整理…………………………………………………27 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090358020 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 重大傷病 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 醫療費用推估 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 疾病負荷 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 重大傷病醫療費用推估與健康生命表之建構 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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