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題名 以模擬最佳化研究產險公司的資產配置
作者 林家樂
貢獻者 蔡政憲
林家樂
關鍵詞 模擬最佳化
資產配置
演化策略
產險公司
ES
日期 2005
上傳時間 2009-09-18
摘要 本文結合動態財務分析(Dynamic Financial Analysis, DFA)與演化策略演算法(Evolution Strategy, ES)找尋產險公司最佳的投資比率。本文模擬產險公司的25年的營運情形,將各資產價格變化以隨機模型建構的概念帶入,加入損失分配並考慮多重期間的資產配置比率重分配(re-allocation)等條件,在建立目標方程式後,運用演化策略演算法求得最佳的資產配置比率。
In the research, the tools we take are the dynamic financial analysis( DFA ) system and the evolution strategy algorithm( ES ), which can be used to find the best investment ratio for insurance companies. The whole content of this article demonstrates the condition of property-casualty insurance companies in the 25 years. It takes place of the change of prices in every item of the asset by some kind of stochastic models, then, takes notice of the distribution of loss and re-allocation, sets a objective function for the goal to find the best ratio of the asset allocation by ES.
參考文獻 蘇承懋,2004,模擬產險公司最佳化資產配置,政治大學碩士論文。
楊雅媛,2002,迴歸分析與類神經網路預測能力之比較,政治大學碩士論文。
A . M. Best Company,1991,Best’s Insolvency Study - Property/Casualty Insurers 1969-1990, Best’s Review – Property/Casualty Insurance Editor, Auguest, 16-23.
Browne, J.M., and E.H.Robert,1995,Economic and Market Predictors of Insolvencies in the Property-Liability Insurance Industry, Journal of Risk and Insurance,62(2),309-327.
Browne, J.M., M.C. James, and E.H.Robert,2001,Dynamic Financial Models of Life Insurers, North American Actuarial Journal, Volume 5, pp. 11-26.
Brennan, M.J., E.S. Schwartz, and R.Lagnado,1997,Strategic Asset Allocation, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,21:1377-1403.
Chang, S.C., and C.C.Chen,2002,Allocating unfunded liability in
pension valuation under uncertainty, Insurance Mathematics and Economics,30:371-387.
Cummins, J.D., M.F. Grace, and R.D. Phillips, 1999, Regulatory Solvency Prediction in Property-Liability Insurance: Risk-Based Capital, Audit Ratios, and Cash-Flow Simulation, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 66: 417-458.
Cox, J.C., J.E.Ingersoll, and S.A.Ross,1985,A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,Econometrica,53:385-408.
Charles, C. E, 1995, Dynamic Finance Models of Property-Casualty Insurers, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, Fall,96-127.
D’Arcy, S.P., W.G. Richard, A.H. Joseph, E.H. Thomas, G.L. Steven, and J.M. Michael,1997,Building a Public Access PC-Based DFA Model, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum ,Fall, Vol.2, 1-40.
D’Arcy, S.P., W.G. Richard, E.H. Thomas, and J.W.Robert,1998,Using the Public Access DFA Model: A Case Study, CAS Dynamic Financial Analysis Task Force on Variables, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum ,Summer ,58-117.
Greenwald, J.,2005, Storm losses leave questions about extent of reinsurance rate increases, Business Insurance, Chicago: Nov 7, 2, Vol.39, Iss.45
Jensen, B.A., and C.C.Sorensen,2001,Paying For Minimum Interest Rate Guarantee Who Should Compensate Who ,European Financial Management,7,183-211
Jorion,P.,2000,Value at Risk(McGraw-Hill)
Judy G., 2005, Storm losses leave questions about extent of reinsurance rate increases, Business Insurance. Chicago: Nov 7, 2005.Vol.39, Iss. 45; pg.3
Markowitz, H.M.,1952, Portfolio Selection, Journal of Finance,7:77-91.
Merton, R.C.,1971, Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous Time Model, Journal of Economic Theory,3:373-413.
Sharpe, W.F.,1964, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance,19:425-442.
Sorensen, C.C.,1999,Dynamic asset allocation and fixed income management, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis; Dec 1999;34,4,513-531.
Cummins, J.D., and D.W. Sommer, 1996, Capital and Risk in the Property Insurance Markets, Journal of Banking and Finance, 20: 1069-1092.
Back, T., 1996, Evolutionary Algorithms in Theory and Practice (New York: Oxford University Press).
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
92358021
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923580211
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 蔡政憲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林家樂zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 林家樂zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2009-09-18-
dc.date.available 2009-09-18-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2009-09-18-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0923580211en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34169-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92358021zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文結合動態財務分析(Dynamic Financial Analysis, DFA)與演化策略演算法(Evolution Strategy, ES)找尋產險公司最佳的投資比率。本文模擬產險公司的25年的營運情形,將各資產價格變化以隨機模型建構的概念帶入,加入損失分配並考慮多重期間的資產配置比率重分配(re-allocation)等條件,在建立目標方程式後,運用演化策略演算法求得最佳的資產配置比率。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the research, the tools we take are the dynamic financial analysis( DFA ) system and the evolution strategy algorithm( ES ), which can be used to find the best investment ratio for insurance companies. The whole content of this article demonstrates the condition of property-casualty insurance companies in the 25 years. It takes place of the change of prices in every item of the asset by some kind of stochastic models, then, takes notice of the distribution of loss and re-allocation, sets a objective function for the goal to find the best ratio of the asset allocation by ES.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1.研究目的與文獻回...................................4
2.動態財務分析與演化策略演算法.......................7
2.1、動態財務分析(DFA)...............................7
2.1.1起源與發展......................................7
2.1.2 DFA之流程......................................8
2.1.3 DFA 之優缺點及限制............................10
2.2 演化策略演算法..................................12
2.2.1起源與發展.....................................12
2.2.2 演化策略演算法之流程..........................14
3.模擬方法..........................................17
3.1模型設定........................................ 17
3.2程式流程........................................ 21
3.3結果............................................ 25
4.結論與建議........................................26
參考文獻............................................27
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923580211en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模擬最佳化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產配置zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 演化策略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 產險公司zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) ESen_US
dc.title (題名) 以模擬最佳化研究產險公司的資產配置zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蘇承懋,2004,模擬產險公司最佳化資產配置,政治大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 楊雅媛,2002,迴歸分析與類神經網路預測能力之比較,政治大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) A . M. Best Company,1991,Best’s Insolvency Study - Property/Casualty Insurers 1969-1990, Best’s Review – Property/Casualty Insurance Editor, Auguest, 16-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Browne, J.M., and E.H.Robert,1995,Economic and Market Predictors of Insolvencies in the Property-Liability Insurance Industry, Journal of Risk and Insurance,62(2),309-327.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Browne, J.M., M.C. James, and E.H.Robert,2001,Dynamic Financial Models of Life Insurers, North American Actuarial Journal, Volume 5, pp. 11-26.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brennan, M.J., E.S. Schwartz, and R.Lagnado,1997,Strategic Asset Allocation, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,21:1377-1403.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S.C., and C.C.Chen,2002,Allocating unfunded liability inzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) pension valuation under uncertainty, Insurance Mathematics and Economics,30:371-387.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cummins, J.D., M.F. Grace, and R.D. Phillips, 1999, Regulatory Solvency Prediction in Property-Liability Insurance: Risk-Based Capital, Audit Ratios, and Cash-Flow Simulation, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 66: 417-458.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cox, J.C., J.E.Ingersoll, and S.A.Ross,1985,A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,Econometrica,53:385-408.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Charles, C. E, 1995, Dynamic Finance Models of Property-Casualty Insurers, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, Fall,96-127.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) D’Arcy, S.P., W.G. Richard, A.H. Joseph, E.H. Thomas, G.L. Steven, and J.M. Michael,1997,Building a Public Access PC-Based DFA Model, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum ,Fall, Vol.2, 1-40.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) D’Arcy, S.P., W.G. Richard, E.H. Thomas, and J.W.Robert,1998,Using the Public Access DFA Model: A Case Study, CAS Dynamic Financial Analysis Task Force on Variables, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum ,Summer ,58-117.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Greenwald, J.,2005, Storm losses leave questions about extent of reinsurance rate increases, Business Insurance, Chicago: Nov 7, 2, Vol.39, Iss.45zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jensen, B.A., and C.C.Sorensen,2001,Paying For Minimum Interest Rate Guarantee Who Should Compensate Who ,European Financial Management,7,183-211zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jorion,P.,2000,Value at Risk(McGraw-Hill)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Judy G., 2005, Storm losses leave questions about extent of reinsurance rate increases, Business Insurance. Chicago: Nov 7, 2005.Vol.39, Iss. 45; pg.3zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Markowitz, H.M.,1952, Portfolio Selection, Journal of Finance,7:77-91.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R.C.,1971, Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous Time Model, Journal of Economic Theory,3:373-413.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sharpe, W.F.,1964, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance,19:425-442.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sorensen, C.C.,1999,Dynamic asset allocation and fixed income management, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis; Dec 1999;34,4,513-531.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cummins, J.D., and D.W. Sommer, 1996, Capital and Risk in the Property Insurance Markets, Journal of Banking and Finance, 20: 1069-1092.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Back, T., 1996, Evolutionary Algorithms in Theory and Practice (New York: Oxford University Press).zh_TW