| dc.contributor.advisor | 張清福 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 廖致翔 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 廖致翔 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2002 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 18-Sep-2009 09:09:47 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 18-Sep-2009 09:09:47 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 18-Sep-2009 09:09:47 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0903530171 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34259 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 會計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 90353017 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 91 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 達成或超越分析師的盈餘預期為公司重要目標之一，市場包括投資人或分析師對於公司達成盈餘預期目標的反應，一直為學界所關心。文獻發現達成盈餘預期目標的公司，確實享有較未達成目標者更高的股價報酬，顯示市場對此持有正面的反應，因為達成目標的公司，未來將有較佳的獲利能力。本文延伸文獻之探討，進一步考量經濟環境因素---景氣反轉，在這一議題上可能扮演的角色，亦即試圖探討景氣反轉時市場對公司達成或超越分析師盈餘預期的反應，以及達成盈餘預期目標的資訊內涵，會如何受到景氣反轉因素的影響。 實證結果發現達成或超越分析師盈餘預期事件所帶來的股價反應，不會受到景氣由上往下反轉的影響而有所差異，但分析師對此等事件的反應則會隨景氣由上往下反轉而更為強烈，在景氣由下往上反轉時則較無差異；至於此等事件所隱含公司未來將有較佳獲利能力的資訊內涵，雖不會隨著景氣由上往下反轉而有所差異，卻會隨著景氣由下往上反轉而更為增強。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Meeting or beating analysts’ earnings forecasts is an important goal for the management to achieve. As a result, the market reaction to the meeting of earnings expectations has been intensively explored. In general, the meeting of earnings expectations signals brilliant future profitability to the investors. Following this line of research, this study further investigates the effect of business cycle on the relationship between market reaction and the meeting of earnings expectations. We find that the stock returns of firms meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts are not affected by the sudden downturn of the economy. On the contrary, analysts’ response to such events becomes stronger in the economic downturn though it remains the same when the economy rebounds. As for the issue of information content, meeting earnings expectations is more informative when the economy rebounds from recession but not in the downturn of the economy. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第壹章 緒論..............................................1第一節 研究動機與目的..................................1第二節 研究問題........................................4第貮章 文獻探討..........................................8第一節 達成或超越分析師盈餘預期相關現象之探究..........8第二節 企業管理當局如何達成或超越分析師盈餘預期.......10第三節 達成或超越分析師盈餘預期事件的外界反應.........12第四節 與景氣循環相關文獻之探究.......................18第參章 研究方法.........................................21第一節 研究假說.......................................21第二節 名詞定義.......................................25第三節 實證模式.......................................26第四節 樣本與資料來源.................................31第肆章 實證結果分析.....................................32第一節 樣本特性與敘述統計量分析.......................32第二節 實證迴歸分析...................................44第三節 額外分析.......................................55第伍章 結論.............................................57第一節 研究結論.......................................57第二節 研究限制.......................................60第三節 後續研究建議...................................60參考文獻..................................................62 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0903530171 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 景氣循環 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 分析師預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 未預期盈餘 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | business cycle | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | analyst forecast | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | earnings surprise | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 景氣循環、分析師盈餘預測與股價反應 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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