| dc.contributor.advisor | 黃智聰 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Huang,Jr-Tsung | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 程小綾 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Cheng,Hsiao-Ling | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 程小綾 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Cheng,Hsiao-Ling | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2004 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 18-Sep-2009 10:11:58 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 18-Sep-2009 10:11:58 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 18-Sep-2009 10:11:58 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0922610011 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34413 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 中山人文社會科學研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 92261001 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 93 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 在經濟與政治關係日益密切的今日，經濟表現是否會影響選舉結果已成為學者所關切的議題。目前西方國家，特別是美國，針對中央層級選舉經濟投票行為方面之研究已有高度共識，即經濟表現不佳，會對執政黨的選情不利。至於地方經濟表現對州長選舉有無影響的實證結果，則較為分歧。本文將經濟投票理論應用至台灣縣市長選舉，以台灣21個縣市在1989年至2001年4屆的縣市長選舉作為研究對象，探討致使地方首長選舉結果出現政黨輪替的可能變數，已彌補現有文獻僅考量政治層面、以及中央層級選舉之不足。 經由Probit模型估計後發現，地方失業率於選舉年惡化並不會影響縣市長選舉結果；反而是全國失業率對選舉結果有顯著影響。一般而言，總統政黨執政之縣市皆較非總統政黨執政之縣市不易發生政黨輪替，但若全國失業率於選前攀升，則前者所享有的相對優勢會因此而降低，連帶使其被輪替的機率提升。至於另一全國經濟指標物價膨脹率，則不如全國失業率有影響力，即使物價於選舉年上漲，總統政黨執政縣市出現政黨輪替的機率，亦未有隨之提升的態勢。 另外，在政治變數部分，現任者競選連任有利於現任執政政黨於選戰中勝出；府會是否同黨對選舉結果則無顯著影響。而本文依據邊際效用遞減法則提出的假設亦得到證實，即一黨連任屆數與其發生政黨輪替的機率呈正向關係。 最後，關於時間及縣市虛擬變數部分，本文發現，2001年14屆縣市長選舉發生政黨輪替的機率為4屆之首；而21縣市中，則以嘉義縣、屏東縣、新竹市、台中市、台中縣及基隆市，分居最易發生政黨輪替縣市的前五名。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Substantial scholarly attention has been at the relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes in most western democratic countries, especially in the United States. Most Studies focused mainly on presidential or congressional elections have indicated a solid evidence that the worse economic conditions will be unfavorable to the incumbents to win the elections. Compared with those coincide conclusions, the results about economic voting in state elections are more discrepancy. This paper applies the economic voting theory to analyze the county magistrates and city mayors elections in Taiwan and uses a county-and city-level panel data from 1989 to 2001 to examine the possible factors which cause the party rotation of the county magistrates and city mayors elections. After estimating Probit model, the primary finding is that the local unemployment rates have no impact on election outcomes of the county magistrates and city mayors. Instead, the national unemployment rates have a significant effect on election outcomes. Generally, the probabilities of party rotation of the counties and cities ruled by the president’s party are lower than others. However, this advantage will be damaged as the national unemployment rate is higher in the election year than that in the previous year. As to the inflation rates, the other national economical index, are not as influential as the national unemployment rates. For all rising in the election year, the probabilities of party rotation won’t go up. Additionally, about the political variables, the incumbents are more likely to defeat the challengers and renew their term of office; it has no significant impact on election outcomes whether the incumbent governors and city or county councils are of the same party. The hypothesis which derives from the law of diminishing marginal utility is also proved. The longer the governing party rules the county or city, the higher the probability of party rotation for this county or city. Finally, the probability of party rotation of the 14th county magistrates and city mayors election is the highest from 1989 to 2001. Chiayi County, Pingdong County, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Taichung County and Keelung City are the top five ones of the twenty-one counties and cities in terms of the frequency of party rotation. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章、緒論..................................................1 第一節、研究動機............................................1 第二節、研究目的............................................4 第三節、研究架構............................................5第二章、理論探討與文獻回顧....................................8 第一節、經濟投票理論........................................8 第二節、地方首長選舉與經濟投票之相關國外文獻...............14 第三節、台灣經濟投票之相關文獻.............................18 第四節、本章小結...........................................21第三章、縣市長選舉回顧與資料分析.............................23 第一節、台灣21縣市長選舉回顧（1989年至2001年）.............23 第二節、台灣21縣市長選舉資料分析...........................26 第三節、本章小結...........................................33第四章、研究設計.............................................35 第一節、研究方法與實證模型.................................35 第二節、變數定義與資料來源.................................43 第三節、研究範圍與研究限制.................................48 第四節、本章小結...........................................50第五章、實證結果與分析.......................................52 第一節、實證結果分析.......................................52 第二節、模型基本檢驗結果...................................57 第三節、本章小結...........................................60第六章、結論與建議...........................................62參考文獻 ....................................................65附錄、第10屆至第14屆縣市長選舉結果...........................73表次表1: 地方首長選舉與經濟投票的相關國外文獻整理................17表2: 台灣經濟投票的相關文獻整理..............................20表3: 1989年至2001年21縣市長選舉政黨輪替及連任屆數表..........27表4: 線性機率模型與Probit模型之綜合比較......................39表5: 實證變數說明............................................47表6: Probit模型估計結果......................................53表7: 全國失業率和與總統同一政黨交互項之邊際效果表............54表8: 縣市虛擬變數之估計結果..................................56圖次圖1: 研究架構圖...............................................7圖2: 4屆縣市長選舉符合經濟投票理論與否之縣市比例.............28圖3: 各縣市現任地方首長競選連任成敗之比例....................30圖4: 有無政黨輪替縣市現任政黨之平均連任屆數..................32 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922610011 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 地方選舉 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 政黨輪替 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 連任 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 經濟投票 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | economic voting | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | local election | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | party rotation | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | renew term of office | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 經濟投票與政黨輪替—以台灣縣市長選舉為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 一、中文部分 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 王柏燿（2002），「台灣選民經濟投票之研究：1996-2001年」，國立政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 林佑蓮（2003），「財政收支劃分法之政治經濟分析」，私立中原大學國際貿易學系碩士論文。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 陳陸輝（1998），「台灣1996年總統選舉之分析」，《選舉研究》，5（1），頁139-160。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 盛治仁（2000），「統獨不再對決—從2000年總統選舉看台灣新社會分歧的興起及影響」，《理論與政策》，14（2），頁119-139。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃上紡（1996），「選舉與經濟—政治性景氣循環」，《美歐月刊》，11（5），頁51-66。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃英哲、劉瑞宇（1996），「總體政策與選舉的關係—台灣地區實證分析」，《企銀季刊》，19（3），頁104-113。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃秀端（1994），「經濟情況與選民投票抉擇」，《東吳政治學報》，3，頁97-123。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃秀端（1996），「決定勝負的關鍵:候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性」，《選舉研究》，3(1)，頁103-135。 | zh_TW |
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| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃智聰（2001），「台灣選舉與貨幣政策關係之初探」，《中山人文社會科學期刊》，9（1），頁111-136。 | zh_TW |
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| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 二、政府出版品 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 台灣省選舉委員會（1989、1990，1993、1994，1997、1998，2001、2002），《公職人員選舉台灣省選務實錄》，南投縣：台灣省選舉委員會。 | zh_TW |
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