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題名 臺商對大陸投資、外人直接投資與房地產市場
作者 邱國珍
Kuo Chen,Chiu
貢獻者 張勝文
邱國珍
Kuo Chen,Chiu
關鍵詞 臺灣
臺商對大陸投資
外人直接投資
房地產市場
日期 2006
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 10:58:11 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文之目的為研究臺商對大陸投資和外人直接投資對臺灣房地場市場的影響,以大臺北都會區、大臺中都會區、大高雄都會區為分析對象,資料取樣期間為1993年第一季至2005年第4季,實證發現臺商對大陸投資與外人直接投資只對工商業發達的大臺北都會區與大高雄都會區有顯著的影響力。在中古屋市場,臺商對大陸投資與外人直接投資皆為正面的衝擊,顯示外人直接投資的增加會帶動房地產景氣的提升造成房價上揚,而且資金外移對於國內房地產市場投資不會出現排擠的現象;新屋市場上,臺商對大陸投資在各地區皆為負面影響,外人直接投資除了大臺北都會區為正面的衝擊外,臺灣地區、大臺中都會區、大高雄都會區都是負面的衝擊。由於中古屋市場與新屋市場之間具有替代性質,而且中古屋市場為主要的買賣市場,因此會臺商對大陸投資與外人直接投資對中古屋市場的投資會排擠到對新屋市場的需求。
參考文獻 王健安、林秋瑾、張金鶚 (1996),「房地產業對我國總體經濟活動之影響分
析」,臺灣銀行季刊,41,頁1-24。
李建裕與陳得發 (1993),「都會區住宅價格與總體經濟環境關係之研究」,
臺灣銀行季刊,44,頁322-352。
卓輝華 (1994),「房地產市場景氣發展」,臺北:北星圖書事業公司。
花敬群與張金鶚 (1999),「成屋市場與預售屋市場之價量關係:住宅存量─
流量模型的檢討與修正」,國家科學委員會研究彙刊,9,頁494-504。
陳明吉 (1990),「房地產價格及其變動因素之研究」,臺灣銀行季刊,41,
頁220-244。
陳隆麟與李文雄 (1998),「臺灣地區房價、股價、利率互動關係之研究─聯
立方程模型與向量自我迴歸模型之應用」,財務金融學刊,15,頁51-
71。
曾文龍 (1988),「房地產過去、現在、未來」,臺北:北星圖書事業公司。
張金鶚與賴碧瑩 (1989),「房地產景氣指標之研究」,行政院國家科學委員
會專題研究計畫成果報告,臺北,臺灣:行政院國家科學委員會。
張金鶚 (1995),「房地產景氣與總體景氣關係之研究」,行政院國家科學委
員會專題研究計畫成果報告,臺北,臺灣:行政院國家科學委員會。
張金鶚與林秋瑾 (1997),「臺灣地區房地產景氣指標電腦輔助系統之建立與
應用」,臺北,臺灣:內政部建築研究所。
張淑真 (2000),「臺商赴大陸投資對臺灣經濟的影響」,高雄應用科技大學
學報,30,頁389-414。
彭建文與張金鶚 (2000),「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」,國家科學
委員會研究彙刊,10,頁330-343。
鄭美幸與康信鴻 (2003),「臺商赴大陸投資與重大非經濟事件對我國房地產
景氣的影響」,住宅學報,11,頁101-119。
Braunerhjelm, P. and L. Oxelheim (2000), “Does Foreign
Direct Investment Replace Home Country Investment? The
Effect of European Integration on the Location of
Swedish Investment,” Journal of Common Market Studies,
38, 199-221.
Case, K.E. and C.J. Mayer (1996), “Housing Price Dynamics
within a Metropolitan Area,” Regional Science and Urban
Economics, 26, 387-407.
Chen, M.C. and P. Kanak (1998), “House Price Dynamics and
Granger Causality: an Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling
Market,” Journal of The Asian Real Estate Society, 1,
101-126.
Chen, M.C. and P. Kanak (2002), “An Empirical Analysis of
Determination of Housing Prices in the Taipei Area,”
Taiwan Economic Review, 30, 563-595.
Chen, M.C. (2003), “Time-Series Properties and Modelling of
House Prices in Taipei Area: An Application of the
Structural Time-Series,” Journal of Housing Studies, 12,
69-90.
Dipasquale, D. and W. C. Wheaton (1994), “Housing Market
Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices,” Journal of
Urban Economics, 35, 1-27.
Dougherty, A. and R. Van Order (1982), “Inflation, Housing
Costs, and the Consumer Price Index,” The American
Economic Review, 72, 154-165.
Fortura, P. and K. Joseph (1986), “Canadian Inter-city
House Price Differentials,” American Real Estate and
Urban Economics Association Journal, 14, 525-536.
Jud, D. and D. Winkler (2002), “The Dynamics of
Metropolitan Housing Prices,” Journal of Real Estate
Research, 23, 29-45.
Kim, K.H. (2003), “Housing and the Korean Economy,” Journal
of Housing Economics, 13, 321-341.
Lin, C.C. and Y.F. Lai (2003), “Housing Prices, Mortgage
Payments and Savings Behavior in Taiwan: A Time Series
Analysis,” Asian-Econo- mic-Journal, 17, 407-25.
Malpezzi, S. (1999), “A Simple Error Correction Model of
House Prices,” Jounal of Housing Economics, 8, 27-62.
Meese, R. and N. Wallace (2003), “House Price Dynamics and
Market Fundamentals: The Parisian Housing Market,” Urban-
Studies, 40, 1027-45.
Phang, S.Y. (2004), “House Prices and Aggregate
Consumption: Do They Move Together? Evidence from
Singapore,” Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 101-119.
Quigley, J. (1999), “Real Estate Price and Economic
Cycles,” International Real Estate Review, 2, 1-20.
Riddel, M. (2004), “Housing-market Disequilibrium: An
Examination of Housing-Market Price and Stock Dynamics
1967-1998,” Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 120-135.
Schwab, R. M. (1982), “Expected Inflation and Housing: Tax
and Cash Flow Considerations,” Southern Economic
Journal, 49, 1162-1168.
Studenmund, A. H. (2001), “Using Econometrics: A Practical
Guide,” Addison Wesley Longman.
Guy, S. and R. Lipsey (1992), “Interactions between
Domestic and Foreign Investment,” Journal of
International Money and Finance, 11, 40-62.
Tu, Y. (2004), “The Dynamics of the Singapore Private
Housing Market,” Urban Studies, 41, 605-619.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
93255022
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093255022
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張勝文zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 邱國珍zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Kuo Chen,Chiuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 邱國珍zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Kuo Chen,Chiuen_US
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 10:58:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 10:58:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 10:58:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093255022en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34704-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93255022zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文之目的為研究臺商對大陸投資和外人直接投資對臺灣房地場市場的影響,以大臺北都會區、大臺中都會區、大高雄都會區為分析對象,資料取樣期間為1993年第一季至2005年第4季,實證發現臺商對大陸投資與外人直接投資只對工商業發達的大臺北都會區與大高雄都會區有顯著的影響力。在中古屋市場,臺商對大陸投資與外人直接投資皆為正面的衝擊,顯示外人直接投資的增加會帶動房地產景氣的提升造成房價上揚,而且資金外移對於國內房地產市場投資不會出現排擠的現象;新屋市場上,臺商對大陸投資在各地區皆為負面影響,外人直接投資除了大臺北都會區為正面的衝擊外,臺灣地區、大臺中都會區、大高雄都會區都是負面的衝擊。由於中古屋市場與新屋市場之間具有替代性質,而且中古屋市場為主要的買賣市場,因此會臺商對大陸投資與外人直接投資對中古屋市場的投資會排擠到對新屋市場的需求。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究背景與動機…………………………………………1
第二節 研究流程…………………………………………………8

第二章 相關文獻回顧與探討……………………………………11
第一節 影響房價變動之因素……………………………………11
第二節 相關理論文獻回顧………………………………………12

第三章 研究設計…………………………………………………18
第一節 存量-流量模型…………………………………………18
第二節 實證模型設定……………………………………………21
第三節 變數資料介紹與資料來源………………………………27

第四章 實證結果與分析…………………………………………38
第一節 需求函數…………………………………………………38
第二節 供給函數…………………………………………………53

第五章 結論與延伸………………………………………………57

參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………68
附錄1-1 中古屋市場需求函數第一階段估計結果………………63
附錄1-2 新屋市場需求函數第一階段估計結果…………………64
附錄2 變數基本統計量…………………………………………65
zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093255022en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺灣zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺商對大陸投資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外人直接投資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地產市場zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 臺商對大陸投資、外人直接投資與房地產市場zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王健安、林秋瑾、張金鶚 (1996),「房地產業對我國總體經濟活動之影響分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 析」,臺灣銀行季刊,41,頁1-24。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李建裕與陳得發 (1993),「都會區住宅價格與總體經濟環境關係之研究」,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 臺灣銀行季刊,44,頁322-352。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 卓輝華 (1994),「房地產市場景氣發展」,臺北:北星圖書事業公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 花敬群與張金鶚 (1999),「成屋市場與預售屋市場之價量關係:住宅存量─zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 流量模型的檢討與修正」,國家科學委員會研究彙刊,9,頁494-504。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳明吉 (1990),「房地產價格及其變動因素之研究」,臺灣銀行季刊,41,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 頁220-244。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳隆麟與李文雄 (1998),「臺灣地區房價、股價、利率互動關係之研究─聯zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 立方程模型與向量自我迴歸模型之應用」,財務金融學刊,15,頁51-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 71。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 曾文龍 (1988),「房地產過去、現在、未來」,臺北:北星圖書事業公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張金鶚與賴碧瑩 (1989),「房地產景氣指標之研究」,行政院國家科學委員zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 會專題研究計畫成果報告,臺北,臺灣:行政院國家科學委員會。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張金鶚 (1995),「房地產景氣與總體景氣關係之研究」,行政院國家科學委zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 員會專題研究計畫成果報告,臺北,臺灣:行政院國家科學委員會。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張金鶚與林秋瑾 (1997),「臺灣地區房地產景氣指標電腦輔助系統之建立與zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 應用」,臺北,臺灣:內政部建築研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張淑真 (2000),「臺商赴大陸投資對臺灣經濟的影響」,高雄應用科技大學zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 學報,30,頁389-414。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 彭建文與張金鶚 (2000),「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」,國家科學zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 委員會研究彙刊,10,頁330-343。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 鄭美幸與康信鴻 (2003),「臺商赴大陸投資與重大非經濟事件對我國房地產zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Effect of European Integration on the Location ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Swedish Investment,” Journal of Common Market Studies,zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Case, K.E. and C.J. Mayer (1996), “Housing Price Dynamicszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) within a Metropolitan Area,” Regional Science and Urbanzh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Riddel, M. (2004), “Housing-market Disequilibrium: Anzh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schwab, R. M. (1982), “Expected Inflation and Housing: Taxzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) and Cash Flow Considerations,” Southern Economiczh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Housing Market,” Urban Studies, 41, 605-619.zh_TW