學術產出-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

政大圖書館

Citation Infomation

  • No doi shows Citation Infomation
題名 台灣失業率與犯罪關係之初探—不同模型之比較
Exploration of the relationship between unemployment rate and crimes in Taiwan:A Comparison between Models
作者 魏大耕
貢獻者 郭炳伸
魏大耕
關鍵詞 失業
犯罪經濟
機會效果
動機效果
無母數方法
時間序列
景氣循環
unemployment
economic crime
opportunity effect
motivation effect
nonparametric method
time series
business cycle
日期 2007
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 14:13:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 在過去研究犯罪經濟學的理論文獻上,失業率對各犯罪類型的影響為正向關係,但在實証文獻上的研究發現,卻有愈來愈多的証據支持此二個變數間的負向或無關係。為了解釋上述正向與負向間相反的矛盾關係,本篇論文嘗試利用兩種模型(非參數與非參數模型)與兩種效果(機會效果與動機效果)來解釋此二變數間的關係,此亦是本論文主要貢獻。其中機會效果是用以解釋失業率與犯罪間的負向關係,動機效果則用以解釋正向關係。在非參數模型中,利用失業率為景氣循環的代理變數,發現失業率與竊盜間存在正向關係,此與大多實証研究相符;失業率則和妨害風化與殺人犯罪間呈現負向相關;失業率與傷害罪間則沒有明顯正負關係。研究亦顯示,不同的犯罪類型在不同的參數模型下,統計的顯著性亦有不同,而在不同年齡層(青少年與成年人)的犯罪模型則更與理論模型結論相符。
According to the theoretical literature on criminal economics, unemployment rate tends to be positively correlated to all types of crimes. However, more and more empirical evidence suggests otherwise. In order to clarify the relationship, this study exploits both nonparametric and parametric models and considers two effects, including opportunity and motivation effects. The presence of the opportunity effect leads to be a negative correlation between unemployment rate and crimes, while the presence of the motivation effect gives a positive correlation. Under nonparametric model where unemployment rate is used as a proxy for business cycles, we only found that there is positive correlation between unemployment rate and robbery, while obscenity and homicide are found to be negatively correlated with unemployment rate. This is in line with most empirical studies. Little correlation evidence is found for unemployment and other types of crimes. Under parametric model, the study indicates that the statistical significance differs in models, and depends on crime variable used. We found more consistent results with theoretic models for the age groups (teenagers and adults).
參考文獻 Archer, D. and R. Garner. (1986) "Violence and the economy: A modest hypothesis on inequality, unemployment and crime." International Annals of Criminology 24 (1-2),.255-266.
Becker, G. S. (1968) "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach." The Journal of Political Economy 76 (2),.169-217.
Britt, C. L. (2001.) "Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 343-357.
Cantor, D., and K. C. Land. (1985.) "Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis." American Sociological Review 50 (3), 317-332.
———, (1991.) "Exploring Possible Temporal Relationships of Unemployment and Crime: A Comment on Hale and Sabbagh." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 418-425.
———, (2001.) "Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: A Comment on Greenberg." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 329-342.
Chuang, C. C. (2002.) "A Study of the Determinants of the General Rate of Criminal Offenders in Taiwan " Journal of Environment and Management 3 (1), 77-98.
Hsu, C. J., , Y.,S., Chen, P.L, Wang (1991) "The Empirical Study of Violance Crime Victims` Characteristics and Routine Activity Style." Journal of Police Science, 19
Cochrane, D. and G. Orcutt (1949), "Application of Least Squares to Relationships Containing Auto-correlated Error Terms", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44, 32-61
Cook, P. J., and G. A. Zarkin. (1985.) "Crime and the Business Cycle." The Journal of Legal Studies 14 (1), 115-128.
Durbin, J. and G.. S. Watson, (1951) "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression," Biometrika, vol38, 159-171.
Ehrlich, I. (1973) "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation." The Journal of Political Economy 81 (3), 521-565.
Ehrlich, I., and Zhiqiang Liu (2006) “The Economics of Crime, Volume 1.” The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics 195, Edward Elgar published.
Greenberg, D. F. (2001.) "Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 291.
Gujarati, D. N. (2003) “Basic Econometrics.” International edition: McGRAW - Hill.
Hale, C. (1991.) "Unemployment and Crime: Differencing Is No Substitute for Modeling." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 427-429.
Hale, C., and D. Sabbagh. (1991.) "Testing the Relationship between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data from England and Wales." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 400-417.
Kapuscinski, C. A., J. Braithwaite and B. Chapman. (1998) "Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 14, 215-241.
Land, K. C., D. Cantor, and S. T. Russell. (1995) "Unemployment and crime rate fluctuations in the post- World War II United States: Statistical time-series properties and alternative models." Standford University Press, Standford, CA.
Lin, M.-J., Chung-Wei., Liu (2006) "Does Unemployment Increases Crime? Evidence from County Data of Taiwan 1978–2003." Taiwan Economic Review 34 (4),445-483.
Maddala, G. S. (2001) "Introduction to Econometrics." 3ed: Wiley.
Moffitt, T. E. (1993) "Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy." Psychological Review 100 (4),674-701.
Naffine, N., and F. Gale (1989). “Testing the nexus: Crime, gender, and unemployment”. The British journal of criminology. 29: 144-156.
O`Brien, R. M. (2001) "Theory, Operationalization, Identification, and the Interpretation of Different Differences in Time Series Models." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4),359-375.
Paternoster, R., and S. D, Bushway (2001) "Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4),391-407.
Shu, S. (2001) "Economic Development and Crime --Taiwan Experiences Analysis from 1951 to 1998." PhD dissertation, NCCU Graduate Institute of Development Studies,
Weatherburn, D., B. Lind and S. Ku. (2001) "The Short-Run Effects of Economic Adversity on Property Crime." Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 34,134-147.
White, H. (1980), "A Heteroscedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test of Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, vol. 48, 817- 818
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
94351020
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094351020
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭炳伸zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 魏大耕zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 魏大耕zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 14:13:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 14:13:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 14:13:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094351020en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35124-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94351020zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在過去研究犯罪經濟學的理論文獻上,失業率對各犯罪類型的影響為正向關係,但在實証文獻上的研究發現,卻有愈來愈多的証據支持此二個變數間的負向或無關係。為了解釋上述正向與負向間相反的矛盾關係,本篇論文嘗試利用兩種模型(非參數與非參數模型)與兩種效果(機會效果與動機效果)來解釋此二變數間的關係,此亦是本論文主要貢獻。其中機會效果是用以解釋失業率與犯罪間的負向關係,動機效果則用以解釋正向關係。在非參數模型中,利用失業率為景氣循環的代理變數,發現失業率與竊盜間存在正向關係,此與大多實証研究相符;失業率則和妨害風化與殺人犯罪間呈現負向相關;失業率與傷害罪間則沒有明顯正負關係。研究亦顯示,不同的犯罪類型在不同的參數模型下,統計的顯著性亦有不同,而在不同年齡層(青少年與成年人)的犯罪模型則更與理論模型結論相符。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) According to the theoretical literature on criminal economics, unemployment rate tends to be positively correlated to all types of crimes. However, more and more empirical evidence suggests otherwise. In order to clarify the relationship, this study exploits both nonparametric and parametric models and considers two effects, including opportunity and motivation effects. The presence of the opportunity effect leads to be a negative correlation between unemployment rate and crimes, while the presence of the motivation effect gives a positive correlation. Under nonparametric model where unemployment rate is used as a proxy for business cycles, we only found that there is positive correlation between unemployment rate and robbery, while obscenity and homicide are found to be negatively correlated with unemployment rate. This is in line with most empirical studies. Little correlation evidence is found for unemployment and other types of crimes. Under parametric model, the study indicates that the statistical significance differs in models, and depends on crime variable used. We found more consistent results with theoretic models for the age groups (teenagers and adults).en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Models 8
2.1 Nonparametric model 8
2.2 Parametric model 10
Chapter 3 Empirical results – various types of crimes 14
3.1 Data Descriptions 14
3.2 Nonparametric method 15
3.3 Parametric model 17
3.3.1 Model Diagnostics 18
3.3.2 Estimation Results 19
Chapter 4 Conclusions and Discussion 25
References 27
Appendix A: Graphs of unemployment rate and each crime variable 30
Appendix B: Hausman test for age model specification 32

The List of tables
Table 1 Taiwan Business Cycle Expansion and Contractions 15
Table 2 Crime movements over ten business cycles 16
Table 3 Testing for heteroskedasticity 19
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 63718 bytes-
dc.format.extent 78907 bytes-
dc.format.extent 77250 bytes-
dc.format.extent 13173 bytes-
dc.format.extent 45514 bytes-
dc.format.extent 56201 bytes-
dc.format.extent 160809 bytes-
dc.format.extent 16977 bytes-
dc.format.extent 48911 bytes-
dc.format.extent 98379 bytes-
dc.format.extent 31248 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094351020en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 犯罪經濟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 機會效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動機效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 無母數方法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 時間序列zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 景氣循環zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) unemploymenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) economic crimeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) opportunity effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) motivation effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) nonparametric methoden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) time seriesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) business cycleen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣失業率與犯罪關係之初探—不同模型之比較zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Exploration of the relationship between unemployment rate and crimes in Taiwan:A Comparison between Modelsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Archer, D. and R. Garner. (1986) "Violence and the economy: A modest hypothesis on inequality, unemployment and crime." International Annals of Criminology 24 (1-2),.255-266.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Becker, G. S. (1968) "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach." The Journal of Political Economy 76 (2),.169-217.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Britt, C. L. (2001.) "Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 343-357.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cantor, D., and K. C. Land. (1985.) "Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis." American Sociological Review 50 (3), 317-332.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ———, (1991.) "Exploring Possible Temporal Relationships of Unemployment and Crime: A Comment on Hale and Sabbagh." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 418-425.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ———, (2001.) "Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: A Comment on Greenberg." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 329-342.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chuang, C. C. (2002.) "A Study of the Determinants of the General Rate of Criminal Offenders in Taiwan " Journal of Environment and Management 3 (1), 77-98.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hsu, C. J., , Y.,S., Chen, P.L, Wang (1991) "The Empirical Study of Violance Crime Victims` Characteristics and Routine Activity Style." Journal of Police Science, 19zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cochrane, D. and G. Orcutt (1949), "Application of Least Squares to Relationships Containing Auto-correlated Error Terms", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44, 32-61zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cook, P. J., and G. A. Zarkin. (1985.) "Crime and the Business Cycle." The Journal of Legal Studies 14 (1), 115-128.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Durbin, J. and G.. S. Watson, (1951) "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression," Biometrika, vol38, 159-171.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ehrlich, I. (1973) "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation." The Journal of Political Economy 81 (3), 521-565.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ehrlich, I., and Zhiqiang Liu (2006) “The Economics of Crime, Volume 1.” The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics 195, Edward Elgar published.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Greenberg, D. F. (2001.) "Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 291.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gujarati, D. N. (2003) “Basic Econometrics.” International edition: McGRAW - Hill.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hale, C. (1991.) "Unemployment and Crime: Differencing Is No Substitute for Modeling." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 427-429.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hale, C., and D. Sabbagh. (1991.) "Testing the Relationship between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data from England and Wales." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 400-417.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kapuscinski, C. A., J. Braithwaite and B. Chapman. (1998) "Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 14, 215-241.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Land, K. C., D. Cantor, and S. T. Russell. (1995) "Unemployment and crime rate fluctuations in the post- World War II United States: Statistical time-series properties and alternative models." Standford University Press, Standford, CA.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lin, M.-J., Chung-Wei., Liu (2006) "Does Unemployment Increases Crime? Evidence from County Data of Taiwan 1978–2003." Taiwan Economic Review 34 (4),445-483.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Maddala, G. S. (2001) "Introduction to Econometrics." 3ed: Wiley.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moffitt, T. E. (1993) "Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy." Psychological Review 100 (4),674-701.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Naffine, N., and F. Gale (1989). “Testing the nexus: Crime, gender, and unemployment”. The British journal of criminology. 29: 144-156.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) O`Brien, R. M. (2001) "Theory, Operationalization, Identification, and the Interpretation of Different Differences in Time Series Models." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4),359-375.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Paternoster, R., and S. D, Bushway (2001) "Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4),391-407.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shu, S. (2001) "Economic Development and Crime --Taiwan Experiences Analysis from 1951 to 1998." PhD dissertation, NCCU Graduate Institute of Development Studies,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Weatherburn, D., B. Lind and S. Ku. (2001) "The Short-Run Effects of Economic Adversity on Property Crime." Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 34,134-147.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) White, H. (1980), "A Heteroscedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test of Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, vol. 48, 817- 818zh_TW