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題名 應用專家意見評估金融市場上專家價值之研究
作者 楊昇達
Yang, Sheng Ta
貢獻者 劉文卿
楊昇達
Yang, Sheng Ta
關鍵詞 專家
專家意見
內容分析法
分析網路程序法
專家價值
日期 2005
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 14:38:05 (UTC+8)
摘要 近年來，投資理財的重要性與日俱增；但是，一般投資大眾往往無法掌握市場運作產生的資料、資訊；一方面是因為市場上流動的資訊過多，投資大眾很難有效篩選有幫助的資訊。另一方面則是因為投資人無法了解資料的涵義；因此，聽從某些專家的意見進行投資，可能是沒有時間與信心自行研究的一般投資大眾最終選擇。但是這些市場上所謂的專家們數量眾多，提出的意見可信度究竟有多少；一般投資大眾應該採信那些專家的意見，以降低投資的風險與獲利。本研究將結合內容分析法(Content analysis)與分析網路程序法(Analytic Network Process)，以專家提出的意見可信度來評估專家們的價值。預期提供投資人一個參考的依據，選擇價值較高的專家提出之意見進行研究，相信比起直接取用所有的專家意見進行分析，風險與成本會更為降低。
Recent years, there is more and more importance in investing and managing finances. Because too many information and the investors do not understand what these data really mean, the investors do not have ability to help themselves investing and earning profit. For the investors without time or confidence, it may be the final choice that according to some opinions comes from some professors to invest. However, there are so many professors, which one’s opinion is more reliably and believable? As a general investor, will apply which opinions help us reduce risk and make profit? In this research we combine content analysis and analytic network process to evaluate the professors in the financial market by how much believable in their opinions. We expect that this will support the investor a reference materials. Comparing with analyzing all opinions in the market directly, the risk and cost will be lower if applying the opinions comes from some valuable professors.
參考文獻 [1] 王文科，教育研究法，五南出版社，台北，2002。
[2] 吳紹群，「內容分析法與圖書館學研究」，圖書與資訊學刊，40，47-61頁，2002。
[3] 陳虹遐，「應用分析網路程序法於液晶電視之生態效益評估」，國立成功大學，工業設計研究所碩士論文，2004。
[4] 游舒帆，「利用WordNet建立證券領域的語意結構」，國立政治大學，資訊管理研究所碩士論文，2005。
[5] 楊開煌，「中共研究中的內容分析法及其爭議與反省」，東亞季刊，20，2－28頁，1998。
[6] 楊孟麗，謝水南，教育研究法，心理出版社，台北市，2003。(原著出版年：1990)
[7] Bernard Berelson, Content Analysis in Communication Research, Glencoe, 1952.
[8] Cartwright, D. P.. "Analysis of qualitative material", Research methods in the behavioral sciences, pp. 421-470, in L. Festinger & D. Katz (Eds.), New York: Dryden., 1953.
[9] David F. Groebner, Patrick W. Shannon, Phillip C. Fry, Kent D. Smith, Business Statistics : A Decision-Making Approach (6th), Prentice Hall, 2003.
[10] Earl Babbie, The Practice of Social Research (10th), Wadsworth Publishing, 2003.
[11] Huang J.J., Tzeng G.H., and Ong C.S. "Multidimensional data in multidimensional scaling using the analytic network process", Pattern Recognition Letters, 26, pp. 755-767, 2005.
[12] Klaus Krippendorff, Content Analysis : An Introduction to Its Methodology (2nd), Sage Publications, 2003.
[13] Kimberly A. Neuendorf, The Content Analysis Guidebook, Sage Publications, 2001.
[14] Markoff, J. et al., "Toward the integration of content analysis and general methodology", Sociological methodology, In D.R. Heise (Ed.), San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1975.
[15] Michael P. Niemira, Thomas L. Saaty, "An Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting, 20, pp. 573–587, 2004.
[16] Robert Philip Weber, Basic Content Analysis (2nd), Sage Publications, 1990.
[17] Roger D. Wimmer, Joseph R. Dominick, Mass Media Research : An Introduction(8th), Wadsworth Publishing, 2005.
[18] Sarkis, J., "Quantitative models for performance measurement systems-alternate considerations", International Journal of Production Economics, 86, pp. 81-90, 2003.
[19] Sarkis, J. and Talluri, S., "A model for strategic supplier selection", Journal of Supply Chain Management, 38:1, pp. 18–28, 2002.
[20] Thomas L. Saaty, Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback, The Analytic Network Process (2nd), RWS Publications, USA, 2001.
[21] W. Lawrence Neuman, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches (5th), Allyn & Bacon, 2002.
[22] HRBS Asia, http://www.hrbsasia.com
[23] Super Decisions Software for Decision-Making, http://www.superdecisions.com/
[24] 建弘投信，http://www.nitc.com.tw/index.asp
[25] 倍立投信，http://www.bscfund.com.tw/
[26] 基智網，http://www.funddj.com/y/yFund.htm
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
93356034
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0933560341
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 劉文卿zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊昇達zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Sheng Taen_US
dc.creator (作者) 楊昇達zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yang, Sheng Taen_US
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 14:38:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 14:38:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 14:38:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0933560341en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35284-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93356034zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來，投資理財的重要性與日俱增；但是，一般投資大眾往往無法掌握市場運作產生的資料、資訊；一方面是因為市場上流動的資訊過多，投資大眾很難有效篩選有幫助的資訊。另一方面則是因為投資人無法了解資料的涵義；因此，聽從某些專家的意見進行投資，可能是沒有時間與信心自行研究的一般投資大眾最終選擇。但是這些市場上所謂的專家們數量眾多，提出的意見可信度究竟有多少；一般投資大眾應該採信那些專家的意見，以降低投資的風險與獲利。本研究將結合內容分析法(Content analysis)與分析網路程序法(Analytic Network Process)，以專家提出的意見可信度來評估專家們的價值。預期提供投資人一個參考的依據，選擇價值較高的專家提出之意見進行研究，相信比起直接取用所有的專家意見進行分析，風險與成本會更為降低。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Recent years, there is more and more importance in investing and managing finances. Because too many information and the investors do not understand what these data really mean, the investors do not have ability to help themselves investing and earning profit. For the investors without time or confidence, it may be the final choice that according to some opinions comes from some professors to invest. However, there are so many professors, which one’s opinion is more reliably and believable? As a general investor, will apply which opinions help us reduce risk and make profit? In this research we combine content analysis and analytic network process to evaluate the professors in the financial market by how much believable in their opinions. We expect that this will support the investor a reference materials. Comparing with analyzing all opinions in the market directly, the risk and cost will be lower if applying the opinions comes from some valuable professors.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 I
Abstract II
謝辭 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
一、序論 1
1.1 研究背景與現況 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究架構 2
二、文獻探討 3
2.1 內容分析法 3
2.1.1 內容分析法的發展 3
2.1.2 內容分析法的定義 4
2.1.3 內容分析法的種類 6
2.2 分析網路程序法 7
2.2.1 分析網路程序法的簡介 7
2.2.2 分析網路程序法的流程 8
2.2.3 分析網路程序法與分析層級程序法之比較 11
三、研究方法 13
3.1 研究模型 13
3.2 研究流程 14
3.3 類目定義 15
3.4 分析專家意見 16
3.5 建構網路化結構 18
3.6 計算估計值 22
3.7 比較估計值與實際值之差異 23
3.8 評估專家之價值 24
四、實證研究 25
4.1 實證流程 25
4.2 詞彙分類 26
表4-1 詞彙分類結果 26
4.3 內容分析 27
4.4 網路化結構與各因子之權重 35
4.5 計算估計值與相關係數 38
4.6 評估專家價值 40
五、結論與未來發展方向 42
5.1 結論 42
5.2 研究限制 42
5.3 未來發展方向 43
參考文獻 44

表目錄
表3-1 ANP評估尺度表 20
表3-2 隨機指標(RI)對照表 21
表4-1 詞彙分類結果 26
表4-2建弘電子基金的經理人月報分析結果節錄 27
表4-3 倍立高科技基金的經理人月報分析結果節錄 29
表4-4 建弘電子基金的經理人月報分析結果節錄 32
表4-5 倍立高科技基金的經理人月報分析結果節錄 33
表4-6 建弘電子基金之各集群與因子給分結果 34
表4-7 建弘電子基金94年4月至12月各因子權重計算結果 37
表4.8 倍立高科技基金94年4月至10月各因子權重計算結果 38
表4-9 國內股市加權指數與電子指數紀錄 39
表4-10 94年4月至10月基金成長度實際值與估計值 39
表4-11 相關係數計算 40
表4-12 夏普比率與資訊比率比較 41

圖目錄
圖2-1 ANP網路結構 8
圖2-2 超級矩陣 9
圖2-3 網路化結構範例 10
圖3-1 本研究模型 13
圖3-2 本研究流程圖 14
圖3-3 類目定義模型 15
圖3-4 理財商品關聯模型 16
圖3-5 影響理財商品指標之各構面網路化結構 18
圖3-6 應用分析網路程序法決定影響權重流程圖 19
圖4-1 使用Super Decisions Software設定集群畫面 35
圖4-2 使用Super Decisions Software設定因子畫面 36
圖4-3 用Super Decisions Software建立網路化結構之結果 36
圖4-4 用Super Decisions Software依據因子的給分進行成偶比較 37		zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0933560341en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 專家zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 專家意見zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 內容分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析網路程序法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 專家價值zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 應用專家意見評估金融市場上專家價值之研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] 王文科，教育研究法，五南出版社，台北，2002。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2] 吳紹群，「內容分析法與圖書館學研究」，圖書與資訊學刊，40，47-61頁，2002。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3] 陳虹遐，「應用分析網路程序法於液晶電視之生態效益評估」，國立成功大學，工業設計研究所碩士論文，2004。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4] 游舒帆，「利用WordNet建立證券領域的語意結構」，國立政治大學，資訊管理研究所碩士論文，2005。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5] 楊開煌，「中共研究中的內容分析法及其爭議與反省」，東亞季刊，20，2－28頁，1998。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6] 楊孟麗，謝水南，教育研究法，心理出版社，台北市，2003。(原著出版年：1990)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7] Bernard Berelson, Content Analysis in Communication Research, Glencoe, 1952.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8] Cartwright, D. P.. "Analysis of qualitative material", Research methods in the behavioral sciences, pp. 421-470, in L. Festinger & D. Katz (Eds.), New York: Dryden., 1953.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [9] David F. Groebner, Patrick W. Shannon, Phillip C. Fry, Kent D. Smith, Business Statistics : A Decision-Making Approach (6th), Prentice Hall, 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [10] Earl Babbie, The Practice of Social Research (10th), Wadsworth Publishing, 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [11] Huang J.J., Tzeng G.H., and Ong C.S. "Multidimensional data in multidimensional scaling using the analytic network process", Pattern Recognition Letters, 26, pp. 755-767, 2005.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [12] Klaus Krippendorff, Content Analysis : An Introduction to Its Methodology (2nd), Sage Publications, 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [13] Kimberly A. Neuendorf, The Content Analysis Guidebook, Sage Publications, 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [14] Markoff, J. et al., "Toward the integration of content analysis and general methodology", Sociological methodology, In D.R. Heise (Ed.), San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1975.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [15] Michael P. Niemira, Thomas L. Saaty, "An Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting, 20, pp. 573–587, 2004.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [16] Robert Philip Weber, Basic Content Analysis (2nd), Sage Publications, 1990.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [17] Roger D. Wimmer, Joseph R. Dominick, Mass Media Research : An Introduction(8th), Wadsworth Publishing, 2005.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [18] Sarkis, J., "Quantitative models for performance measurement systems-alternate considerations", International Journal of Production Economics, 86, pp. 81-90, 2003.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [19] Sarkis, J. and Talluri, S., "A model for strategic supplier selection", Journal of Supply Chain Management, 38:1, pp. 18–28, 2002.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [20] Thomas L. Saaty, Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback, The Analytic Network Process (2nd), RWS Publications, USA, 2001.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [21] W. Lawrence Neuman, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches (5th), Allyn & Bacon, 2002.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [22] HRBS Asia, http://www.hrbsasia.comzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [23] Super Decisions Software for Decision-Making, http://www.superdecisions.com/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [24] 建弘投信，http://www.nitc.com.tw/index.aspzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [25] 倍立投信，http://www.bscfund.com.tw/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [26] 基智網，http://www.funddj.com/y/yFund.htmzh_TW