Publications-Theses

題名 美國利率交換暨公債市場等要素對臺灣利率交換價差之影響實證分析
作者 馮憲航
貢獻者 沈中華
馮憲航
關鍵詞 利率交換
價差
日期 2004
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 15:55:45 (UTC+8)
摘要 最近翻閱報章雜誌,常常發現某某公司對於利率交換的不熟悉造成操作失當賠了不少錢,更甚者,有的公司企業不知如何用利率交換規避利率變動的風險,造成公司業績表現出狀況,加上在2006年台灣跟全世界同步必須加入金融界所謂的巴塞爾II協定,此協定乃針對金融界的風險管理,包含信用、市場、資訊等方面,如果不及早了解風險管理的重要,將來金融界可能會出現難得一見的大洗牌,只有善於處理資產負債的公司才能存活甚至壯大。
利率交換屬於衍生性金融商品的一種,主要用途為管理公司內部有關利率的風險部位,故本研究在時下愈重視風險管理的因素之下,起而對影響利率交換價差的因子作推測,並加以驗證,從參考國內外文獻,並決定顯出5個能影響利率交換價差的解釋變數,其中基於全球金融服務自由化愈來愈開放的今天,選取的變數主要還是針對跨國性的影響,並另外擇出對台灣本地交換市場的幾項影響因子作實證,實證結果也確實如預測一樣,國際的因素會對本地市場造成影響,只不過在影響之餘也要考量其他因素及時間長短對結果之情況又有些許不同。但大部份的結果都如模型推估一樣,顯示出交換價差確實會受到文中提到變數之影響。
雖然已進入21世紀的時代,資訊及網路的發達造就了全世界的互通有無,但是就風險管理的前景而言,預測未來本來就不是一件很容易的工作,更何況是瞬息萬變的金融界,至少如何有效的推估利率變化已經是刻不容緩的地步,且確實已有多方早就在詳細的研究中,所以本研究希望透過對影響利率交換價差因子的找尋及實證,姑且不論是否完全符合市場之預期,但至少發現對交換價差而言,人們的預期心理確實在這議題上,已佔了不可忽視的地步,最後的部分給後續的研究者一些建議,或許並不一定完善,但希望能給後續對本議題有研究興趣者一些參考方向。
參考文獻 中文部分:
沈中華,2002【金融市場】,華泰書局。
沈中華、王儷容,1998【金融期貨與選擇權】,五南書局。
李麗 ,1997【金融交換實務】,三民書局。
許金城,2002【臺灣利率交換市場交換價差影響因素之實證研究】,輔仁大學金融研究所碩士論文。
寰宇證券投資顧問公司譯,1997【利率交換交易】,寰宇財金。
寰宇證券投資顧問公司譯,1997【貨幣交換交易】,寰宇財金。
謝劍平,2002【現代投資銀行】,智勝書局。
參考文獻
英文文獻:
Andersen, T. G., and J. Lund, 1996, “Stochastic volatility and mean drift in the short
term interest rate : sources of steepness, level and curvature in the yield curve”,Working paper, Northwestern University.
Antonio, A.,Rolf, S.,2004, “Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU”Working paper series, no.303
Bicksler, J., Chen, A. H.,1986, “An economic analysis of interest rate swaps.”The Journal of Finance, 645-655
Brown, K., W. V. Harlow, and D. J. Smith, 1994, “An empirical analysis of interest rate swap spreads,” Journal of Fixed Income, 3, 61-68.
Dai, Q., and K. J. Singleton, 1997, “Special cation analysis of term structure mod-
els,” Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Duffie, D., 1996, “Special repo rates,” Journal of Finance, 51, 493-526.
Duffie, D., and M. Huang, 1996, “Swap rates and credit quality,” Journal of Finance, 51,921-949.
Duffie , D., and R. Kan. 1996 “A yield-factor model of interest rates”. Mathematical Finance, 6:379–406.
Duffie, D., and K. Singleton, 1997, “An econometric model of the term structure of
interest-rate swap yields,” Journal of Finance, 52, 1287-1321.
Eom, Y. H., M. G. Subrahmanyam and J. Uno, 1998, “Coupon effects and the pricing of Japanese government bonds: an empirical analysis,” The Journal of Fixed Income, 8, 69-86.
Eom, Y. H., M. G. Subrahmanyam and J. Uno, 2000, “Credit Risk and the Yen Interest Rate Swap Market” New York University, 1-43
Grinblatt, M, 1995, “An analytic solution for interest-rate swap spreads,” Working paper, UCLA, Anderson Graduate School of Management.
Huge, B. and D. Lando, 2000, “Swap pricing with two-sided default risk in a rating-based model,” Working paper, University of Copenhagen.
Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull, 1995, “Pricing options on _nancial securities subject to
default risk,” Journal of Finance, 50, 53-86.
Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull, 1997, “When swaps are dropped,” Risk, 10, 70-75.
Koticha, A., 1993, “Do swap rates reflect default risk?” Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation,New York University.
Lekkons, I.,Milas, C.,2001, “Identifying the factors that affect interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom.”The Journal of Futures Markets, 67-79
Li, H., 1998, “Pricing of swaps with default risk,” Review of Derivative Research, 2,
231-250.
Litterman, R. and J. Scheinkman 1991, “Common factors a_ecting bond returns,”Journal of Fixed Income, 47, 129-1282.
Litzenberger, R. H., 1992, “Swaps: plain and fanciful,” Journal of Finance, 47, 597-620.
McCulloch, J. H., 1971, “Measuring the term structure of interest rates,” Journal of
Business, 44, 19-31.
McCulloch, J.H., 1975, “The Tax-adjusted yield curve,” Journal of Finance, 30, 811-829.
Merton, R., 1974, “On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,”Journal of Finance, 29, 449-470.
Minton, B., 1997, “An empirical examination of basic valuation models for plain vanilla U.S. interest rate swaps,”Journal of Financial Economics 44, 251-277.
Mozumdar, A., 1996, “Essays on swaps and default risk,” Ph.D. Dissertation, Stern
School of Business,” New York University, 1996.
Sarig, O. and A. Warga, 1989, “Some empirical estimates of the risk structure of interest rates,” Journal of Finance, v44, 1351-1360.
Shea, G. S., 1984, “Pitfalls in smoothing interest rate term structure data: equilibrium
models and spline approximations ,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 19,253-69.
Smith, C.W.,Smithson, C.W., Wakeman, L.M.,1988, “The Market for Interest Rate Swap”Financial Management, 34-44
Sood, A., 1988, “The long and short of interest rate swap spreads.”Risk, 24-26
Sorensen, E. H. and T. F. Bollier, 1994, “Pricing swap default risk,” Financial Analysts Journal, 50, 23-33.
Sun, T., S. Sundaresan and C. Wang, 1993, “Interest rate swaps: an empirical investigation,” Journal of Financial Economics, 34, 77-99.
Sundaresan, S., 1991, “Valuation of Swaps,” in S. Khoury, ed., Recent Developments in International Banking and Finance, Vol. 5, New York: Elsevier Science Publishers.
Vasicek, O., 1977, “An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure,”Journal of Financial Economics, 5, 177-88.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
91258025
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091258025
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 沈中華zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 馮憲航zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 馮憲航zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 15:55:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 15:55:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 15:55:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0091258025en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35751-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91258025zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 最近翻閱報章雜誌,常常發現某某公司對於利率交換的不熟悉造成操作失當賠了不少錢,更甚者,有的公司企業不知如何用利率交換規避利率變動的風險,造成公司業績表現出狀況,加上在2006年台灣跟全世界同步必須加入金融界所謂的巴塞爾II協定,此協定乃針對金融界的風險管理,包含信用、市場、資訊等方面,如果不及早了解風險管理的重要,將來金融界可能會出現難得一見的大洗牌,只有善於處理資產負債的公司才能存活甚至壯大。
利率交換屬於衍生性金融商品的一種,主要用途為管理公司內部有關利率的風險部位,故本研究在時下愈重視風險管理的因素之下,起而對影響利率交換價差的因子作推測,並加以驗證,從參考國內外文獻,並決定顯出5個能影響利率交換價差的解釋變數,其中基於全球金融服務自由化愈來愈開放的今天,選取的變數主要還是針對跨國性的影響,並另外擇出對台灣本地交換市場的幾項影響因子作實證,實證結果也確實如預測一樣,國際的因素會對本地市場造成影響,只不過在影響之餘也要考量其他因素及時間長短對結果之情況又有些許不同。但大部份的結果都如模型推估一樣,顯示出交換價差確實會受到文中提到變數之影響。
雖然已進入21世紀的時代,資訊及網路的發達造就了全世界的互通有無,但是就風險管理的前景而言,預測未來本來就不是一件很容易的工作,更何況是瞬息萬變的金融界,至少如何有效的推估利率變化已經是刻不容緩的地步,且確實已有多方早就在詳細的研究中,所以本研究希望透過對影響利率交換價差因子的找尋及實證,姑且不論是否完全符合市場之預期,但至少發現對交換價差而言,人們的預期心理確實在這議題上,已佔了不可忽視的地步,最後的部分給後續的研究者一些建議,或許並不一定完善,但希望能給後續對本議題有研究興趣者一些參考方向。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第 壹 章 緒論 1

第一節 研究動機 1

第二節 研究目的 4

第三節 研究流程與論文架構 5

第 貳 章 文獻回顧 9

第 參 章 利率交換的介紹 14

第一節 何謂利率交換 14

第二節 利率交換的功能 14

第三節 利率交換之種類 16

第四節 利率交換交易的過程 20

第五節 利率交換的參與者 20

第六節 利率交換之報價方式 21

第七節 利率交換交易可能產生之風險 22



第 肆 章 研究方法與設計 24


第一節 研究預期 24

第二節 研究對象 29

第三節 研究變數操作型定義 31

第四節 資料來源 34

第 伍 章 實證結果分析 36

第一節 實證研究流程 36

第二節 實證模型設定 36

第三節 實證結果分析 37

第 陸 章 結論與建議 45

第一節 研究發現與結論 45

第二節 研究限制與後續建議 47
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091258025en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 利率交換zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價差zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 美國利率交換暨公債市場等要素對臺灣利率交換價差之影響實證分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華,2002【金融市場】,華泰書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華、王儷容,1998【金融期貨與選擇權】,五南書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李麗 ,1997【金融交換實務】,三民書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 許金城,2002【臺灣利率交換市場交換價差影響因素之實證研究】,輔仁大學金融研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 寰宇證券投資顧問公司譯,1997【利率交換交易】,寰宇財金。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 寰宇證券投資顧問公司譯,1997【貨幣交換交易】,寰宇財金。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 謝劍平,2002【現代投資銀行】,智勝書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文文獻:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, T. G., and J. Lund, 1996, “Stochastic volatility and mean drift in the shortzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) term interest rate : sources of steepness, level and curvature in the yield curve”,Working paper, Northwestern University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Antonio, A.,Rolf, S.,2004, “Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU”Working paper series, no.303zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bicksler, J., Chen, A. H.,1986, “An economic analysis of interest rate swaps.”The Journal of Finance, 645-655zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brown, K., W. V. Harlow, and D. J. Smith, 1994, “An empirical analysis of interest rate swap spreads,” Journal of Fixed Income, 3, 61-68.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dai, Q., and K. J. Singleton, 1997, “Special cation analysis of term structure mod-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) els,” Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D., 1996, “Special repo rates,” Journal of Finance, 51, 493-526.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D., and M. Huang, 1996, “Swap rates and credit quality,” Journal of Finance, 51,921-949.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie , D., and R. Kan. 1996 “A yield-factor model of interest rates”. Mathematical Finance, 6:379–406.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D., and K. Singleton, 1997, “An econometric model of the term structure ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) interest-rate swap yields,” Journal of Finance, 52, 1287-1321.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eom, Y. H., M. G. Subrahmanyam and J. Uno, 1998, “Coupon effects and the pricing of Japanese government bonds: an empirical analysis,” The Journal of Fixed Income, 8, 69-86.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eom, Y. H., M. G. Subrahmanyam and J. Uno, 2000, “Credit Risk and the Yen Interest Rate Swap Market” New York University, 1-43zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grinblatt, M, 1995, “An analytic solution for interest-rate swap spreads,” Working paper, UCLA, Anderson Graduate School of Management.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Huge, B. and D. Lando, 2000, “Swap pricing with two-sided default risk in a rating-based model,” Working paper, University of Copenhagen.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull, 1995, “Pricing options on _nancial securities subject tozh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) default risk,” Journal of Finance, 50, 53-86.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull, 1997, “When swaps are dropped,” Risk, 10, 70-75.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Koticha, A., 1993, “Do swap rates reflect default risk?” Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation,New York University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lekkons, I.,Milas, C.,2001, “Identifying the factors that affect interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom.”The Journal of Futures Markets, 67-79zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, H., 1998, “Pricing of swaps with default risk,” Review of Derivative Research, 2,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 231-250.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Litterman, R. and J. Scheinkman 1991, “Common factors a_ecting bond returns,”Journal of Fixed Income, 47, 129-1282.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Litzenberger, R. H., 1992, “Swaps: plain and fanciful,” Journal of Finance, 47, 597-620.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) McCulloch, J. H., 1971, “Measuring the term structure of interest rates,” Journal ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Business, 44, 19-31.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) McCulloch, J.H., 1975, “The Tax-adjusted yield curve,” Journal of Finance, 30, 811-829.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R., 1974, “On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,”Journal of Finance, 29, 449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Minton, B., 1997, “An empirical examination of basic valuation models for plain vanilla U.S. interest rate swaps,”Journal of Financial Economics 44, 251-277.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mozumdar, A., 1996, “Essays on swaps and default risk,” Ph.D. Dissertation, Sternzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) School of Business,” New York University, 1996.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sarig, O. and A. Warga, 1989, “Some empirical estimates of the risk structure of interest rates,” Journal of Finance, v44, 1351-1360.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shea, G. S., 1984, “Pitfalls in smoothing interest rate term structure data: equilibriumzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) models and spline approximations ,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 19,253-69.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Smith, C.W.,Smithson, C.W., Wakeman, L.M.,1988, “The Market for Interest Rate Swap”Financial Management, 34-44zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sood, A., 1988, “The long and short of interest rate swap spreads.”Risk, 24-26zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sorensen, E. H. and T. F. Bollier, 1994, “Pricing swap default risk,” Financial Analysts Journal, 50, 23-33.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sun, T., S. Sundaresan and C. Wang, 1993, “Interest rate swaps: an empirical investigation,” Journal of Financial Economics, 34, 77-99.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sundaresan, S., 1991, “Valuation of Swaps,” in S. Khoury, ed., Recent Developments in International Banking and Finance, Vol. 5, New York: Elsevier Science Publishers.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Vasicek, O., 1977, “An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure,”Journal of Financial Economics, 5, 177-88.zh_TW