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題名 台灣房地產景氣動向預測之準確度研究
作者 詹任偉
貢獻者 張金鶚
詹任偉
關鍵詞 房地產景氣
景氣預測
因果關係檢定
real estate cycles
cycle forecasting
Granger Causality Test
日期 2003
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 16:14:31 (UTC+8)
摘要 台灣房地產景氣動向季報的發佈不但為台灣房地產市場該季景氣狀況提供一客觀參考依據,且對未來房地產市場景氣走向進行預測分析,提供房地產景氣相關資訊予社會各界參考。在對未來房地產景氣進行預測方面,是採用領先指標作為一參考標的,雖然領先指標就其特性而言為一預測未來景氣動向的參考資訊,但卻無法明確指出其所預測的期間為多長,本研究所欲探討的部分即在於使用房地產景氣綜合指標之領先指標於預測房地產景氣上可以預測幾季之後的房地產景氣狀況,並探討房地產景氣預測的準確度。另外對廠商景氣預測的部分進行一致性的檢視,再從而比較廠商景氣認知與同時、領先指標之間的關係。希望藉此能釐清房地產景氣季報內的訊息內涵。
本研究透過因果關係檢定,找出領先指標領先同時指標三季的關係,確定可以透過領先指標來預測三季之後的景氣變化情形。再利用平均絕對百分比誤差分析使用領先指標作為預測工具的準確度,經過計算求得平均絕對百分比誤差為4.57%,可以看出使用領先指標作為預測工具相當合適。在廠商本身預測景氣動向上,本研究發現廠商預期符合調適預期理論,且對未來的預期有較為樂觀的趨勢;經過本研究統計整理發現廠商對房地產景氣變動的認知與同時指標的變動之間的一致性並不理想,此有可能是因為市場上各項房地產資訊充斥,廠商並不全然以同時指標的變動來判斷房地產景氣的變動。惟經過前後期的比較,可以發現一致性的上升與不一致性的下降,表示兩者之間認知的一致性有逐漸提升的趨勢。
The atmosphere of the real estate industry in Taiwan was upswing gradually in the past few decades, and its market information was definitely occupied an significant role and many people started to put their focus on it. In fact, the industry forecast which can be found from those seasonal report was a prediction only that is not accurate, i.e. those projections were based on the current market information only. Therefore, how to interpret and digest the number from those reports is the crucial issue for the reader to think and to consider. This study is trying to find out the time-lags between leading index and coincident index and the accuracy of the cycle forecasting system.
The Granger causality test is widely used to examine the time-lags between the leading index and the coincident index. From the result of this study, we can found that there has a 3-season time-gap embedded in, and this is an obvious difference indeed. In addition, the forecasted index of the leading indicator i.e. The MAPE is in 4.57% sharp. Thus, we dare to judge that the result of this study is absolutely accurate with 100% confidence.
參考文獻 ■□中文部分
內政部建築研究所
1999-2003《台灣房地產景氣動向季報》,一卷一期至五卷四期。
江明宜
1997〈營建類股價及其影響因素波動關係之研究-誤差修正模型之應用〉,國立政治大學地政學系碩士蚺憛C
林秋瑾、王健安、張金鶚
1997〈房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣於時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討〉,《國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學》,7(1),35-56。
林勝益
1992〈房地產景氣預測探討〉,國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
花敬群
2000《房地產景氣、市場供需與政策研究之探討》,內政部建築研究所研究計畫成果報告。
施顯謀
1978《景氣變動》,水牛出版社。
張金鶚
2003《房地產投資與市場分析—理論與實務》台北,張金鶚。
▁▁▁
1998〈中美房地產景氣循環之研究心得〉《住宅學報》,7,101-104。
▁▁▁
□997《台灣地區房地產景氣指標電腦輔助系統之建立與運用》,內政部建築研究所委託。
張金鶚、賴碧瑩
1990〈房地產景氣指標建立與分析〉《國立政治大學學報》,61,333-411。
陳秋鋤
1970〈台灣房屋建築循環之研究〉,文化大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
彭建文、張金鶚
2000〈預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響之研究《管理學報》,17(3),343-368。
▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
2000〈總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究〉《國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學》,10(3),330-343。
楊澤泉、李政道
2001〈台灣不動產景氣與政府政策之研究〉,第五屆兩岸中華文化與經營管 理學術研討會論文集,中國哈爾濱工業大學。
鄧宗培譯,Wesley C. Mitchell著
1977《景氣循環的研究—問題所在與其成因》,台灣銀行經濟研究室。
蕭明康
1986〈從國民自主原則探討公共介入影響評估-以房屋建築為例〉,文化大學政治研究所碩士論文。
賴怡誠
1997〈房地產景氣預測之研究〉,中央大學土木工程學系碩士論文。
戴鎰家
1996〈影響建築業房地產投資決策因素之研究-以新竹地區為例〉,中華工學院碩士論文。
■□英文部分
Barras, R. and Ferguson, D.
1987 “Dynamic Modeling of the Building Cycle, ”Environment and planing, March, 53-67.
Case, K. and Shiller, R.
1988”The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets” New England Economic Review , November/December , 29-46.
Enders, W.〈RATS Handbook for Econometric Time Series〉Iowa State University.
Falk, B.
1991”Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices” American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 73 ,1-10.
Gordon, J. and Mosbaugh, P. and Cantor,T.
1996“Integrating regional economic indicators with the real estate cycle” The Journal of Real Estate Research ,12(3) ,469-501.
Grebler, L. and Burns, L.
1982 “ Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II”, AREUEA Journal,10(2), 123-152.
Grenadier, S.
1995”The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 10(2) , 95-119.
Grissom, T. and DeLisle, J.
1999 ”A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change” The Journal of Real Estate Research , 18(1) , 97-129.
Harwood, Bruce
1977 “ Real Estate Principal ”, Reston Publishing Co. Virgina.
Kaiser
1997“The long cycle in real estate” The Journal of Real Estate Research , 14(3) ,233-257.
Moore, G.
1961 ” Business Cycle Indicators Volume I Contribution to the Analysis of Current Business Conditions”, Prineton L.Press.
Mueller, G..
1995“Understanding Real Estate’s Physical and Financial Market Cycles” Real Estate Finance , 12(3) , 47-52.
Pyhrr S. and Cooper, J.
1982 “Real Estate Investment”, John Willey & Sons, Inc..
Pyhrr, S. and Roulac, S. and Born, W.
1999 ”Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy” The Journal of Real Estate Research , 18(1) , 7-68.
Rottke, N. and Wemecke, M. and Schwartz, A.
2003 “Real estate cycles in Germany-causes , empirical analysis and recommendations for the management decision process” Journal of Real Estate Literature , 11(3) , 327-345.
Tegene, A. and Kuchler, F.
1993”A Regression Test of the Present Value Model of US Farmland Prices” Journal of Agricultural Economics , 44(1) ,135-143.
Wang, P.
2003 ”A Frequency Domain Analysis of Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors” The Journal of Real Estate Research , 25(3) , 325-346.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
91257027
92
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091257027
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 詹任偉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 詹任偉zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2003en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 16:14:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 16:14:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 16:14:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0091257027en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35861-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91257027zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣房地產景氣動向季報的發佈不但為台灣房地產市場該季景氣狀況提供一客觀參考依據,且對未來房地產市場景氣走向進行預測分析,提供房地產景氣相關資訊予社會各界參考。在對未來房地產景氣進行預測方面,是採用領先指標作為一參考標的,雖然領先指標就其特性而言為一預測未來景氣動向的參考資訊,但卻無法明確指出其所預測的期間為多長,本研究所欲探討的部分即在於使用房地產景氣綜合指標之領先指標於預測房地產景氣上可以預測幾季之後的房地產景氣狀況,並探討房地產景氣預測的準確度。另外對廠商景氣預測的部分進行一致性的檢視,再從而比較廠商景氣認知與同時、領先指標之間的關係。希望藉此能釐清房地產景氣季報內的訊息內涵。
本研究透過因果關係檢定,找出領先指標領先同時指標三季的關係,確定可以透過領先指標來預測三季之後的景氣變化情形。再利用平均絕對百分比誤差分析使用領先指標作為預測工具的準確度,經過計算求得平均絕對百分比誤差為4.57%,可以看出使用領先指標作為預測工具相當合適。在廠商本身預測景氣動向上,本研究發現廠商預期符合調適預期理論,且對未來的預期有較為樂觀的趨勢;經過本研究統計整理發現廠商對房地產景氣變動的認知與同時指標的變動之間的一致性並不理想,此有可能是因為市場上各項房地產資訊充斥,廠商並不全然以同時指標的變動來判斷房地產景氣的變動。惟經過前後期的比較,可以發現一致性的上升與不一致性的下降,表示兩者之間認知的一致性有逐漸提升的趨勢。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The atmosphere of the real estate industry in Taiwan was upswing gradually in the past few decades, and its market information was definitely occupied an significant role and many people started to put their focus on it. In fact, the industry forecast which can be found from those seasonal report was a prediction only that is not accurate, i.e. those projections were based on the current market information only. Therefore, how to interpret and digest the number from those reports is the crucial issue for the reader to think and to consider. This study is trying to find out the time-lags between leading index and coincident index and the accuracy of the cycle forecasting system.
The Granger causality test is widely used to examine the time-lags between the leading index and the coincident index. From the result of this study, we can found that there has a 3-season time-gap embedded in, and this is an obvious difference indeed. In addition, the forecasted index of the leading indicator i.e. The MAPE is in 4.57% sharp. Thus, we dare to judge that the result of this study is absolutely accurate with 100% confidence.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章□緒論......................................1
第一節□研究動機與目的...............................1
第二節□研究問題與研究方法...........................4
第三節□資料來源、名詞定義與研究範圍..................6
第四節□研究架構與研究流程...........................8
第二章□相關理論與文獻回顧..........................10
第一節□房地產景氣相關文獻..........................10
第二節□房地產景氣的影響因素........................12
第三節□房地產景氣預測相關文獻......................20
第四節□預期理論....................................21
第五節□方法理論之應用..............................22
第三章□房地產景氣指標探討與房地產市場資訊概況...28
第一節□房地產景氣指標探討..........................28
第二節□房地產市場資訊概況..........................31

第四章□實證分析.....................................38
第一節□房地產景氣綜合指標..........................40
第二節□房地產廠商經營意願調查......................46
第三節□房地產景氣綜合(客觀)指標與廠商經營(主觀)意願調查之相互關係............................52
第五章□結論與建議................. ...... ...........54
第一節□結論........................................54
第二節□建議................. ...... ................56
參考文獻
附錄
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091257027en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地產景氣zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 景氣預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 因果關係檢定zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) real estate cyclesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) cycle forecastingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger Causality Testen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣房地產景氣動向預測之準確度研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ■□中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 內政部建築研究所zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1999-2003《台灣房地產景氣動向季報》,一卷一期至五卷四期。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 江明宜zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1997〈營建類股價及其影響因素波動關係之研究-誤差修正模型之應用〉,國立政治大學地政學系碩士蚺憛Czh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林秋瑾、王健安、張金鶚zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1997〈房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣於時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討〉,《國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學》,7(1),35-56。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林勝益zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1992〈房地產景氣預測探討〉,國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 花敬群zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2000《房地產景氣、市場供需與政策研究之探討》,內政部建築研究所研究計畫成果報告。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 施顯謀zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1978《景氣變動》,水牛出版社。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2003《房地產投資與市場分析—理論與實務》台北,張金鶚。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ▁▁▁zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1998〈中美房地產景氣循環之研究心得〉《住宅學報》,7,101-104。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ▁▁▁zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) □997《台灣地區房地產景氣指標電腦輔助系統之建立與運用》,內政部建築研究所委託。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張金鶚、賴碧瑩zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1990〈房地產景氣指標建立與分析〉《國立政治大學學報》,61,333-411。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳秋鋤zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1970〈台灣房屋建築循環之研究〉,文化大學經濟研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 彭建文、張金鶚zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2000〈預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響之研究《管理學報》,17(3),343-368。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2000〈總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究〉《國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學》,10(3),330-343。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 楊澤泉、李政道zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2001〈台灣不動產景氣與政府政策之研究〉,第五屆兩岸中華文化與經營管 理學術研討會論文集,中國哈爾濱工業大學。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 鄧宗培譯,Wesley C. Mitchell著zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1977《景氣循環的研究—問題所在與其成因》,台灣銀行經濟研究室。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蕭明康zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1986〈從國民自主原則探討公共介入影響評估-以房屋建築為例〉,文化大學政治研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 賴怡誠zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1997〈房地產景氣預測之研究〉,中央大學土木工程學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 戴鎰家zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1996〈影響建築業房地產投資決策因素之研究-以新竹地區為例〉,中華工學院碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ■□英文部分zh_TW
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