Publications-Theses

題名 不動產估價師信心判斷行為之研究
作者 王士鳴
貢獻者 陳奉瑤
王士鳴
關鍵詞 不動產估價
行為研究
過度自信
Real Estate Appraisal
Behavior Research
Overconfidence
日期 2005
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 16:16:06 (UTC+8)
摘要 不動產估價師之主觀判斷在估價過程中占有舉足輕重的地位,尤以市場比較法中之案例選擇、比較項目之調整最為明顯。然而不動產估價既然非由機器所為,則不動產估價師之行為勢必會影響到其價值判斷。而不動產估價師於行為上之差異,極可能是因為心理層面的某些狀態所致,如過度自信。心理學上已針對許多領域專家之信心判斷進行探討,且均發現多數會有過度自信之情形發生,過度自信將導致人們表現於行為上,進而從事錯誤的決策。


本文嘗試以心理學上之行為研究方法,探討不動產估價師於進行不動產估價作業時其信心判斷情形,是否如同其他領域之專家一樣,會出現過度自信之情形。並且進一步探討不動產估價師過度自信與其外在行為表現和評估價值準確性之關係。

研究採實驗之方式進行。結果顯示我國之不動產估價師之信心判斷普遍存有過度之現象,而要求不動產估價師遵行估價規範進行估價作業,將有助於降低其過度自信。另外,研究亦發現不動產估價師之評估價值準確性並不會隨著蒐集案例數量之增加而提高,然其信心判斷卻會逐漸提升。最後,不動產估價師之過度自信,將導致其評估價值準確性降低。
參考文獻 中文文獻
1.李易璇(2005),不動產估價人員估值決定行為之研究,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
2.美國估價協會(1999),不動產估價,第十一版,台北:宏大不動產鑑定顧問股份有限公司。
3.張小燕(2005),從行為觀點檢視不動產估價中的市場比較法,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。
4.張春興(1995),張氏心理學辭典,第二版,台北:東華書局。
5.張能政(2004),不動產估價行為研究-行為理論之應用,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。
6.許天威(2003),個案實驗研究法,台北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
7.郭文俊(2001),酒後駕車風險知覺之資訊整合實驗,國立中山大學公共事務管理研究所碩士論文。
8.陳順宇(2000),迴歸分析,第三版,華泰書局。
9.程大器(2002),統計學理論與應用,初版,台北:智勝文化事業有限公司。
10.彭兆禎(1993),過度自信之研究:問題困難度、抽樣方式與線索有效性對過度自信的影響,國立政治大學心理研究所碩士論文。
11.廖咸興、李阿乙、梅建平(1999),不動產投資概論,第三版,台北:華泰書局。
12.顏月珠(1986),實用無母數統計方法,初版。
13.顏月珠(1992),無母數統計方法,初版。
14.顏信輝、丁緯(2004),由心理學經驗法則觀點探討盈餘預測之偏誤類型:併論盈餘水準之影響,當代會計,第五卷,第二期,第139-174頁。
15.蘇文賢(2000),應用大量估價法進行公告土地現值評估之研究,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
16.龔怡霖(2000)行為財務學-文獻回顧與未來發展,國立中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
英文文獻
1.Arkes, H. R., Dawes, R. M., & Christensen, C. (1986), “Factors Influencing the Use of a Decision Rule in a Probabilistic Task,” Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 37, pp. 93-111.
2.Barber, B. M., and Odean, T. (2001), “Boys will be Boys:Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment, ” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 1, pp.261-292.
3.Beyer, S. (1990), “Gender Differences in the Accuracy of Self-Evaluations of Performance,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, pp. 960-970.
4.Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J.,& Bushyhead, J.B. (1981), “Physicians’use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, ” Journal of Experimental Psychology:Human Perception and Performance, 7, pp. 928-935.
5.Clapp, J. M. (1990), “A New Test for Equitable Real Estate Tax Assessment,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3, pp. 233-249.
6.Deaux, K. & Farris, E. (1977), “Attributing Causes for One’s Own Performance: The Effects of Sex, Norms, and Outcome,” Journal of Research in Personality, 6, pp. 59-72.
7.Diaz, J, & Hansz, J. A., “How valuers use the value opinions of others,” Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 256-60.
8.Diaz, J. (1990a), “How Appraisers Do Their Work:A Test of the Appraisal Process and the Development of a Descriptive Model,” The Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 5, No.1, pp.1-15.
9.Diaz, J. (1990b), “The process of selecting comparable sales, ” The Appraisal Journal, Vol. 4, pp.533-540.
10.Diaz, J. (1997), “An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment,” The Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 13, No.1, pp.57-66
11.Diaz, J., & Wolverton, M. L. (1998), “A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis,” Real Estate Economics, Vol. 26, No 2, pp.349-358.
12.Einhorn, H , & Hogarth, R. M. (1978), “confidence in judgment: persistence of the illusion of validity,” Psychological Review, 85, pp. 395-416.
13.Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977), “Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology, 3, pp. 552-564.
14.Gallimore, P. (1996), “Confirmation Bias in the Valuation Process: a Test for Corroborating Evidence,” Journal of Property Research, Vol.13, No.4, pp. 261-273.
15.Gervais, S. & Odean, T. (1998), “Learning to Be Overconfident,” working paper, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
16.Griffin, D. G., & Tversky, A.(1992). The Weighting of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, pp.411-435.
17.International Valuation Standards Committee. (2005), “Inrernational Valuation Standards,”
18.International Association of Assessing Officers. (1999), “Standard on Ratio Studies,” Assessment Journal, Sep/Oct. pp. 23-64.
19.Isakson, H. R. (1986), “The Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique: An Alternative to the Adjustment Grid Methods,” AREUEA Journal, 14, pp.274-286.
20.Jocoby, B. C, Weigl, R. W. & Fisher, K. C. (1976), “Pre-purchase Information Acquisition: Description of a process Methodology, Research Paradigm, and Pilot Investigation”. In Anderson, B. B. editor, Advance in Consumer Research, 3, pp. 306-314. Chicago: Association for consumer Research, University of Illinois.
21.Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973), “On the psychology of prediction, ” Psychological Review, 80,pp. 237-251.
22.Keren, G. (1987), “Facing Uncertainty in the Game of Bridge:A Calibration Study,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, pp.98-114.
23.Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1980), “Reasons for confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, pp. 107-118.
24.Lewellen, W. G., Lease, R. C., & Schlarbaum, G. G. (1977), “Patterns of Investment Strategy and Behavior among Individual Investors,” Journal of Business, 50, pp.296-333.
25.Lichtenstein, S., Fischoff, B. (1977), “Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, pp.159-183.
26.Lichtenstein, S., Fischoff, B. (1980), “Training for calibration,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, pp.149-171.
27.Lichtenstein, S., Fischoff, B. (1981), “The Effects of Gender and Instructions on Calibration,” Decision research Report 80-5. Eugene, OR, Decision Research.
28.Lichtenstein, S., Fischoff, B.,& Phillips, L. D. (1982), “Calibration of probabilities:The state of the art to 1980,”In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky(Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty;Heuristics and bias, Cambridge:Cambridge Univ. Press.
29.Lundeberg, M. A., Fox, P. W., & Punccohar, J. (1994), “Highly Confident but Wrong: Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments,” Journal of Educational Psychology, Vol.86, No.1, pp. 114-121.
30.Meehan, A. M. & Overton, W. F. (1986), “Gender Difference in Expectancies for Success and Performance on Piagetian Spatial Tasks,” Merrill-Palmer Quarterly, 32, pp. 427-441.
31.Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1984), “Probability forecasting in meteorology,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, pp. 489-500.
32.Northcraft, A. & Neal, M. (1987), “Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, pp.84-97.
33.Oskamp, S. (1965), “Overconfidence in case-study judgments,” The Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, pp261-265.
34.Paglin, M. & Fogarty, M. (1972), “Equity and the Property Tax: A New Conceptual Focus,” National Tax Journal, 25, pp.557-565.
35.Russo, J. E., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1992), “Managing overconfidence,” Sloan Management Review, 33, pp.7-17.
36.Sieck, W. R. (2000), “Overconfidence in judgment for repeatable events, ” Ph.D. Program,University of Michigan
37.Tversky, A.& Kahnmane, D. (1974), “ Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristic and biases.,” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky(Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty;Heuristics and bias, Cambridge:Cambridge Univ. Press.
38.Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., & Bush, J. G. (1997), “General knowledge overconfidence: Cross-national variations, response style, and reality,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, pp. 87-94.
39.Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., & Shinotsuka, H. (1996), “Beliefs about overconfidence, including its cross-national variation,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, pp.138-147.
40.Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., Shinotsuka, H., Patalano, A. L., & Sieck W. R. (1998), “Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74, pp.89-117.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
93257004
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093257004
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳奉瑤zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 王士鳴zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 王士鳴zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 16:16:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 16:16:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 16:16:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093257004en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35871-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93257004zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 不動產估價師之主觀判斷在估價過程中占有舉足輕重的地位,尤以市場比較法中之案例選擇、比較項目之調整最為明顯。然而不動產估價既然非由機器所為,則不動產估價師之行為勢必會影響到其價值判斷。而不動產估價師於行為上之差異,極可能是因為心理層面的某些狀態所致,如過度自信。心理學上已針對許多領域專家之信心判斷進行探討,且均發現多數會有過度自信之情形發生,過度自信將導致人們表現於行為上,進而從事錯誤的決策。


本文嘗試以心理學上之行為研究方法,探討不動產估價師於進行不動產估價作業時其信心判斷情形,是否如同其他領域之專家一樣,會出現過度自信之情形。並且進一步探討不動產估價師過度自信與其外在行為表現和評估價值準確性之關係。

研究採實驗之方式進行。結果顯示我國之不動產估價師之信心判斷普遍存有過度之現象,而要求不動產估價師遵行估價規範進行估價作業,將有助於降低其過度自信。另外,研究亦發現不動產估價師之評估價值準確性並不會隨著蒐集案例數量之增加而提高,然其信心判斷卻會逐漸提升。最後,不動產估價師之過度自信,將導致其評估價值準確性降低。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與限制 5
第三節 研究架構與流程 7
第二章 文獻回顧 9
第一節 過度自信 9
第二節 不動產估價行為 20
第三節 市場價值、交易價格與評估價值 26
第三章 研究設計 31
第一節 研究假設 31
第二節 實驗設計 33
第三節 實驗內容 38
第四章 實證結果分析 49
第一節 不動產估價師之信心判斷 49
第二節 不動產估價程序與過度自信 55
第三節 比較案例數量多寡與估價師信心判斷 62
第四節 過度自信與估值準確性之關係 74
第五章 結論與建議 79
第一節 結論 79
第二節 建議 81
參考文獻 83
附錄 89
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093257004en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不動產估價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為研究zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度自信zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Real Estate Appraisalen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Behavior Researchen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Overconfidenceen_US
dc.title (題名) 不動產估價師信心判斷行為之研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.李易璇(2005),不動產估價人員估值決定行為之研究,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.美國估價協會(1999),不動產估價,第十一版,台北:宏大不動產鑑定顧問股份有限公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.張小燕(2005),從行為觀點檢視不動產估價中的市場比較法,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.張春興(1995),張氏心理學辭典,第二版,台北:東華書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.張能政(2004),不動產估價行為研究-行為理論之應用,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.許天威(2003),個案實驗研究法,台北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.郭文俊(2001),酒後駕車風險知覺之資訊整合實驗,國立中山大學公共事務管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.陳順宇(2000),迴歸分析,第三版,華泰書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.程大器(2002),統計學理論與應用,初版,台北:智勝文化事業有限公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.彭兆禎(1993),過度自信之研究:問題困難度、抽樣方式與線索有效性對過度自信的影響,國立政治大學心理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.廖咸興、李阿乙、梅建平(1999),不動產投資概論,第三版,台北:華泰書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12.顏月珠(1986),實用無母數統計方法,初版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13.顏月珠(1992),無母數統計方法,初版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14.顏信輝、丁緯(2004),由心理學經驗法則觀點探討盈餘預測之偏誤類型:併論盈餘水準之影響,當代會計,第五卷,第二期,第139-174頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15.蘇文賢(2000),應用大量估價法進行公告土地現值評估之研究,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16.龔怡霖(2000)行為財務學-文獻回顧與未來發展,國立中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.Arkes, H. R., Dawes, R. M., & Christensen, C. (1986), “Factors Influencing the Use of a Decision Rule in a Probabilistic Task,” Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 37, pp. 93-111.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.Barber, B. M., and Odean, T. (2001), “Boys will be Boys:Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment, ” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 1, pp.261-292.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.Beyer, S. (1990), “Gender Differences in the Accuracy of Self-Evaluations of Performance,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, pp. 960-970.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J.,& Bushyhead, J.B. (1981), “Physicians’use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, ” Journal of Experimental Psychology:Human Perception and Performance, 7, pp. 928-935.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.Clapp, J. M. (1990), “A New Test for Equitable Real Estate Tax Assessment,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3, pp. 233-249.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.Deaux, K. & Farris, E. (1977), “Attributing Causes for One’s Own Performance: The Effects of Sex, Norms, and Outcome,” Journal of Research in Personality, 6, pp. 59-72.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.Diaz, J, & Hansz, J. A., “How valuers use the value opinions of others,” Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 256-60.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.Diaz, J. (1990a), “How Appraisers Do Their Work:A Test of the Appraisal Process and the Development of a Descriptive Model,” The Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 5, No.1, pp.1-15.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.Diaz, J. (1990b), “The process of selecting comparable sales, ” The Appraisal Journal, Vol. 4, pp.533-540.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.Diaz, J. (1997), “An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment,” The Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 13, No.1, pp.57-66zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.Diaz, J., & Wolverton, M. L. (1998), “A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis,” Real Estate Economics, Vol. 26, No 2, pp.349-358.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12.Einhorn, H , & Hogarth, R. M. (1978), “confidence in judgment: persistence of the illusion of validity,” Psychological Review, 85, pp. 395-416.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13.Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977), “Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology, 3, pp. 552-564.zh_TW
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