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題名 家戶住宅居住時間分析-存活模型之運用
The Study for Household Duration of Residence-Apply the Survival Analysis
作者 黃文祺
貢獻者 張金鶚
黃文祺
關鍵詞 遷徙行為
居住時間
存活分析
Migration
duration of residence
survival analysis
日期 2007
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 16:20:54 (UTC+8)
摘要 在過去文獻中多有討論遷徙行為者,但少有對家戶的居住時間進行分析,本研究首先檢視自有者與租賃者之居住時間,其次為瞭解家戶對實質住宅的經濟需求較大,還是對已建立的社會關係網絡需求較大,提出居住時間的時間相依性問題,即隨著居住時間的增加,家戶會因為對住宅需求改變而愈容易遷徙?還是在累積惰性下愈不易遷徙?最後則是探討家戶居住時間的影響因素,藉由不同的住宅與家戶特徵來瞭解家戶可能的居住時間,以作為住宅遷徙、流動性及其他住宅政策分析之參考。
本研究在實證方法上採取存活分析法,並利用華人家庭動態資料庫的橫斷面跨時資料進行研究。實證結果顯示,自有者的存活函數明顯大於租賃者,且自有家戶之居住時間為租賃家戶的3.11倍。另外,家戶遷徙機率具有正時間相依性,反應出家戶隨著居住時間的增加,遷徙機率會增加,然而自有家戶模型的遷徙機率卻呈現負時間相依性。居住時間影響因素實證結果,每人坪數較大,居住時間會較短,而年齡愈大與居住人數愈多者,居住時間會較長。
Although there are lots of studies exploring migration, few of them focus on analysis household duration of residence. Duration of residence is an important source of information for a variety of private and pubic decisions and for the understanding of various social and economic phenomena. This study makes a residence duration comparison between owners and tenants. Due to cumulative stress and inertia, moving probability will be increased or decreased. We attempt to describe the duration of residence is positive or negative time dependent. This study also provides the evidence that house and household characteristics determine the duration of residence.
This empirical study employs the survival analysis and uses the data from Panel Study of Family Dynamics. The result indicates that the survival function of owners is larger than of tenant. Duration of owner residence is 3.11 times longer than that of tenants. Generally, household moving probability is positive while the owner’s is negative. Research finding further reveals that ping per person is negatively related to residence duration. Age and household size are positively related to residence duration.
參考文獻 一、中文部分
1.李春長、張金鶚、林祖嘉(1997),房屋交易市場上銷售期間之研究:存活模型之應用,國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學,七卷三期,P.420-437
2.林祖嘉(1988),隨機程序模型下的住屋需求與遷徙,中國經濟學年會論文集,P.269-317
3.周美伶(2005),先前租買經驗對自住者購屋搜尋行為之影響-存活分析之應用,十四卷一期P.21-40
4.高孟定(1987),住宅環境選擇行為之研究,國立台灣大學土木工程研究所博士論文
5.陳淑美、張金鶚、陳建良(2004),家戶遷移與居住品質變化關係之研究-台北縣市的實證分析報,住宅學報,十三卷一期P.51-74
6.陳淑美、張金鶚(2002),家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究-台北縣市的實證研究,住宅學報,十一卷一期P.1-22
7.陳佳欣(2007),家戶首次購置住宅與生命歷程之關聯分析,國立成功大學都市計劃研究所博士論文
8.曾喜鵬(2004),居住遷移與住宅選擇模式建立之研究-以住宅消費失衡與調整為觀點的解釋,國立台北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文
9.靳燕玲、陳小紅(2007),遷移計畫中的改善調整因素,中華民國住宅學會第十六屆論文集,P.307-320
10.薛立敏、曾喜鵬、謝鈺偉(2007),台灣地區近年來遷移行為變化之影響因素分析-家戶遷移決策與遷移地點選擇之聯合估計,人口學刊,第34期,P.69-109
11.薛立敏(1999),台灣地區居住遷徙行為與住宅市場關係之探討,中華民國住宅學會第八屆論文集,P.95-108
二、英文部分
1.Allison, P. D.(1995),“Survival Analysis Using the SAS System: A Practical Guide”, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc
2.Anily S., Jacob Hornik and Miron Israeli(1999),“Inferring the Distribution of Household’s Duration of Residence From Data on Current Residence Time”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 17,373-381
3.Brown, D. L. E. G., Moore(1970),“The Intra Urban Migration Process: A Perspective ”, Economic Geography 55,338-352
4.Boehm, T. P., K. R., Ihlanfeld (1986) “Residential Mobility and Neighborhood Quality”, Journal of Regional Science, 26(2): 411-424
5.Bassett, K., J. R., Short (1980) Housing and Residential Structure: Alternative Approaches, London, Boston and Henley: Routledge and Kegan Paul
6.Clark W. A. V., J. O., Huff(1977),“Some Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice”, Environment and Planning 17,915-930
7.Cox, D. R. and D. Oakes(1984),“Analysis of Survival Data.”, London, New York: Croom Helm
8.Deng Y., Stuart A. Gabriel and Frank E. Nothaft(2003) “Duration of Residence in the Rental Housing Market”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 26:2/3,267-285
9.Goodman, A. C. (2003) “Following a panel of stayers: Length of stay, tenure choice, and housing demand ”, Journal of Housing Economics 12,106-133
10.Gronberg T. J. and W. Robert Reed(1992),“Estimation of Duration Models Using the Annual Housing Survey”, Journal of Urban Economics 31,311-324
11.Haurin D. R., H. Leroy Gill(2002),“The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership”, Journal of Urban Economics 51,563-584
12.Henderson and Y. Ioannides(1992),“Dynamic Aspects of Consumer Decisions in Housing Markets”, Journal of Urban Economics 26,212-230
13.Ioannides, Y. M. (1986),“Residential Mobility and Housing Tenure Choice”, Urban Economics 31,311-324
14.Jarvis, H.(1999),“Housing Mobility as a Function of Household Structure”, Housing Studies 14(4),491-505
15.McGinnis, R.(1968),“A Stochastic Model of Social Mobility”, American Sociological Review 33,712-722
16.McLeod, P.B., and J.R.Ellis.(1983),“Alternative Approaches to the Family Life Cycle in the Analysis of Housing Consumption”, Journal of Marriage and the Family 32,326-350
17.Reinback. E. R. and Oliva T. A. (1981),“General Living Systems Theory and Marketing: A Framework for Analysis”, Journal of Marketing 45,30-37
18.Speare, A. Jr. (1974) “Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility”, Demography, 11:173-188
19.Shelton, J. P. (1968),“The Cost of Renting Versus Owning a Home”, Land Economics 44,59-72
20.Wolpert, J. (1965),“Behavioral Aspects of the Decision to Migrate”, Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association 15,159-169
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
95257020
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095257020
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃文祺zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 黃文祺zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 16:20:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 16:20:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 16:20:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095257020en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35903-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95257020zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在過去文獻中多有討論遷徙行為者,但少有對家戶的居住時間進行分析,本研究首先檢視自有者與租賃者之居住時間,其次為瞭解家戶對實質住宅的經濟需求較大,還是對已建立的社會關係網絡需求較大,提出居住時間的時間相依性問題,即隨著居住時間的增加,家戶會因為對住宅需求改變而愈容易遷徙?還是在累積惰性下愈不易遷徙?最後則是探討家戶居住時間的影響因素,藉由不同的住宅與家戶特徵來瞭解家戶可能的居住時間,以作為住宅遷徙、流動性及其他住宅政策分析之參考。
本研究在實證方法上採取存活分析法,並利用華人家庭動態資料庫的橫斷面跨時資料進行研究。實證結果顯示,自有者的存活函數明顯大於租賃者,且自有家戶之居住時間為租賃家戶的3.11倍。另外,家戶遷徙機率具有正時間相依性,反應出家戶隨著居住時間的增加,遷徙機率會增加,然而自有家戶模型的遷徙機率卻呈現負時間相依性。居住時間影響因素實證結果,每人坪數較大,居住時間會較短,而年齡愈大與居住人數愈多者,居住時間會較長。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Although there are lots of studies exploring migration, few of them focus on analysis household duration of residence. Duration of residence is an important source of information for a variety of private and pubic decisions and for the understanding of various social and economic phenomena. This study makes a residence duration comparison between owners and tenants. Due to cumulative stress and inertia, moving probability will be increased or decreased. We attempt to describe the duration of residence is positive or negative time dependent. This study also provides the evidence that house and household characteristics determine the duration of residence.
This empirical study employs the survival analysis and uses the data from Panel Study of Family Dynamics. The result indicates that the survival function of owners is larger than of tenant. Duration of owner residence is 3.11 times longer than that of tenants. Generally, household moving probability is positive while the owner’s is negative. Research finding further reveals that ping per person is negatively related to residence duration. Age and household size are positively related to residence duration.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與問題 1
第二節 研究方法與範圍 4
第三節 研究架構與流程 5

第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 7
第一節 居住遷徙理論 7
第二節 權屬、遷徙與居住時間關係 12
第三節 居住時間影響因素 15
第四節 小結 19

第三章 資料處理與分析 20
第一節 資料處理 20
第二節 樣本資料分析 21
第三節 樣本檢定分析 24

第四章 實證結果分析 27
第一節 模型設定與變數選取 27
第二節 實證結果分析 32
第三節 小結 38

第五章 結論與建議 39
第一節 結論 39
第二節 研究限制與後續建議 41

參考文獻 43
附錄一 家戶生命週期類型 46
附錄二 華人家庭動態資料庫問卷(節錄) 47
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095257020en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 遷徙行為zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 居住時間zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 存活分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Migrationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) duration of residenceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) survival analysisen_US
dc.title (題名) 家戶住宅居住時間分析-存活模型之運用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Study for Household Duration of Residence-Apply the Survival Analysisen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.李春長、張金鶚、林祖嘉(1997),房屋交易市場上銷售期間之研究:存活模型之應用,國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學,七卷三期,P.420-437zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.林祖嘉(1988),隨機程序模型下的住屋需求與遷徙,中國經濟學年會論文集,P.269-317zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.周美伶(2005),先前租買經驗對自住者購屋搜尋行為之影響-存活分析之應用,十四卷一期P.21-40zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.高孟定(1987),住宅環境選擇行為之研究,國立台灣大學土木工程研究所博士論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.陳淑美、張金鶚、陳建良(2004),家戶遷移與居住品質變化關係之研究-台北縣市的實證分析報,住宅學報,十三卷一期P.51-74zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.陳淑美、張金鶚(2002),家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究-台北縣市的實證研究,住宅學報,十一卷一期P.1-22zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.陳佳欣(2007),家戶首次購置住宅與生命歷程之關聯分析,國立成功大學都市計劃研究所博士論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.曾喜鵬(2004),居住遷移與住宅選擇模式建立之研究-以住宅消費失衡與調整為觀點的解釋,國立台北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.靳燕玲、陳小紅(2007),遷移計畫中的改善調整因素,中華民國住宅學會第十六屆論文集,P.307-320zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.薛立敏、曾喜鵬、謝鈺偉(2007),台灣地區近年來遷移行為變化之影響因素分析-家戶遷移決策與遷移地點選擇之聯合估計,人口學刊,第34期,P.69-109zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.薛立敏(1999),台灣地區居住遷徙行為與住宅市場關係之探討,中華民國住宅學會第八屆論文集,P.95-108zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.Allison, P. D.(1995),“Survival Analysis Using the SAS System: A Practical Guide”, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inczh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.Anily S., Jacob Hornik and Miron Israeli(1999),“Inferring the Distribution of Household’s Duration of Residence From Data on Current Residence Time”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 17,373-381zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.Brown, D. L. E. G., Moore(1970),“The Intra Urban Migration Process: A Perspective ”, Economic Geography 55,338-352zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.Boehm, T. P., K. R., Ihlanfeld (1986) “Residential Mobility and Neighborhood Quality”, Journal of Regional Science, 26(2): 411-424zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.Bassett, K., J. R., Short (1980) Housing and Residential Structure: Alternative Approaches, London, Boston and Henley: Routledge and Kegan Paulzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.Clark W. A. V., J. O., Huff(1977),“Some Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice”, Environment and Planning 17,915-930zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.Cox, D. R. and D. Oakes(1984),“Analysis of Survival Data.”, London, New York: Croom Helmzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.Deng Y., Stuart A. Gabriel and Frank E. Nothaft(2003) “Duration of Residence in the Rental Housing Market”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 26:2/3,267-285zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.Goodman, A. C. (2003) “Following a panel of stayers: Length of stay, tenure choice, and housing demand ”, Journal of Housing Economics 12,106-133zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.Gronberg T. J. and W. Robert Reed(1992),“Estimation of Duration Models Using the Annual Housing Survey”, Journal of Urban Economics 31,311-324zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.Haurin D. R., H. Leroy Gill(2002),“The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership”, Journal of Urban Economics 51,563-584zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12.Henderson and Y. Ioannides(1992),“Dynamic Aspects of Consumer Decisions in Housing Markets”, Journal of Urban Economics 26,212-230zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13.Ioannides, Y. M. (1986),“Residential Mobility and Housing Tenure Choice”, Urban Economics 31,311-324zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14.Jarvis, H.(1999),“Housing Mobility as a Function of Household Structure”, Housing Studies 14(4),491-505zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15.McGinnis, R.(1968),“A Stochastic Model of Social Mobility”, American Sociological Review 33,712-722zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16.McLeod, P.B., and J.R.Ellis.(1983),“Alternative Approaches to the Family Life Cycle in the Analysis of Housing Consumption”, Journal of Marriage and the Family 32,326-350zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17.Reinback. E. R. and Oliva T. A. (1981),“General Living Systems Theory and Marketing: A Framework for Analysis”, Journal of Marketing 45,30-37zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18.Speare, A. Jr. (1974) “Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility”, Demography, 11:173-188zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19.Shelton, J. P. (1968),“The Cost of Renting Versus Owning a Home”, Land Economics 44,59-72zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20.Wolpert, J. (1965),“Behavioral Aspects of the Decision to Migrate”, Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association 15,159-169zh_TW