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題名 More on Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Imperfect International Capital mobility: A Credit View
信用市場、資本不完全移動與浮動匯率之分析
作者 蔡志堅
Tsai, Chih-Chien
貢獻者 朱美麗
Chu, Mei-Lie
蔡志堅
Tsai, Chih-Chien
關鍵詞 信用管道
資本不完全移動
浮動匯率
Fleming命題
共整合
credit channel
imperfect internaitonal capital mobility
floating exchange rate
Fleming proposition
cointegration
日期 2004
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 17:22:40 (UTC+8)
摘要 A considerable body of theoretical and empirical literature has evaluated the credit channel of monetary transmission. This paper sets up an open-economy model under floating exchange rates with imperfect international capital mobility based on the Bernanke and Blinder model (1988). Employing our model, we show that a change in money supply has different impacts on the economy in many cases compared to the previous literature. The exchange rate puzzle may occur and when the exchange rate puzzle appears, the Fleming proposition is violated. Besides, by means of a cointegration analysis, we empirically verify the particular case of the exchange rate puzzle with the monthly data from May 1984 to January 2005 in Taiwan. Therefore, our empirical evidences can be matched with our theoretical derivations successfully.
參考文獻 Abrams, B. A. and F. R. Settle (2003), “Do Fixed Exchange Rates Fetter Monetary Policy? A Credit View,” NBER Working Papers, No. 2003-09.
Bernanke, B. S. (1983), “Non-monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression,” American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No.3, pp. 257-276.
Bernanke, B. S. and S. A. Blinder (1988), “Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand,” American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No.2, pp. 435-440.
Bernanke, B. S. and S. A. Blinder (1992), “The Federal Fund Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission,” American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp. 901-921.
Bernanke, B. S. and M. Gertler (1995), “Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 27-48.
Blinder, A. S. and J. E. Stiglitz (1983), “Money, Credit Constraints, and Economic Activity,” American Economy Review, Vol. 73, No. 2, pp. 297-302.
Brunner, K. and A. H. Meltzer (1968), “Liquidity Traps for Money, Bank Credit, and Interest Rates,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76, No. 1, pp. 1-37.
Chiades, P. and L. Gambacorta (2004), “The Bernanke and Blinder Model in an Open Economy: The Italian Case,” German Economic Review, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-34.
Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit root,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366, pp. 427-431.
Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 1057-1072.
Eichengreen, B. (1997), “Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,” NBER working paper, No. 6060.
Eichengreen, B. (2002), “Still Fettered After All These Years,” NBER Working Papers No. 9276.
Friedman, B. M. (1981), “The Relative Stability of Money and Credit Velocities in the United States: Evidence and Some Speculations,” NBER working paper, No. 645.
Friedman, B. M. (1982), “Debt and Economic Activity in the United States,” NBER working paper, No. 704.
Friedman, B. M. (1983b), “Monetary Policy with a Credit Aggregate Target,” NBER working paper, No. 980.
Fleming, J. M. (1962), “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 9, pp. 369-379.
Gertler, M. and S. Gilchrist (1993), “The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 95, No.1, pp. 43-64.
Gertler, M. and S. Gilchrist (1994), “Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 2, pp. 309-340.
Godfrey, L. (1978), “Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables,” Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 1293-1302.
Godfrey, L. (1978), “Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables,” Econometria, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 1303-1310.
Gonzalo, J. (1994), “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equlibrium Relationships,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 60, No. 1-2, pp. 203-233.
Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 231-254.
Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, No.2, pp. 169-210.
Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models,” Econometrica, Vol. 59, No.6, pp. 1551-1580.
Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1992), “Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 53, No. 1-3, pp. 211-244.
Kashyap, A. K. and J. C. Stein (1995), “The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 42, pp. 151-195.
Kashyap, A. K., J. C. Stein and D. W. Wilcox (1993), “Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance,” American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No.1, pp. 78-98.
Ljung, G. M. and G. E. P. Box (1978), “On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models,” Biometrika, Vol. 67, pp. 297-303.
Martson, R. C. (1985), “Stabilization Policies in Open Economies,” NBER working paper, No. 1117.
Meltzer, A. H. (1995), “Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Prospective,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 49-72.
Modigliani, F. and R. Miller (1958), “The Cost of Capital, Corporate Finance and the Theory of Investment,” American Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 261-297.
Mundell, R. A. (1963), “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates,” Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 15, No.4, pp. 87-103.
Patinkin, D. (1956), Money, Interest, and Prices, New York: Harper and Row.
Pill, H. (1997), “Bank Behaviour and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Spain,” Graduate School of Business Administration Harvard University.
Poole, W. (1970), “Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 197-216.
Romer, C. D. and D. H. Romer (1990), “New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1990, No. 1, pp. 149-213.
Samuelson, P. A. (1947), Foundation of Economic Analysis, Massa., Cambridgfe: Harvard University Press.
Stiglitz, J. E. and A. Weiss (1981), “Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information,” American Economy Review, Vol. 71, No.3, pp. 393-410.
Swoboda, A. K. (1972), “Equilibrium, Quasi-Equilibrium, and Macroeconomic Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 162-171.
Turnovsky, S. J. (1977), Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policies, London, Cambridge University Press.
Wu, Y. (1999), “More on Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Credit View,” Department of Economics and Finance, Franklin P. Perdue School of Business, Salisbury State University.
Wang, D. N. and G. H. Lee (2004), “The Empirical Analyses on the Monetary Policy Operations and the Transmission Mechanism in Taiwan-Concurrent Study on the Bank Credit Channel and the Stock Price Channel,” Central Bank of China Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 17-56. (in Chinese)
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
92258006
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922580061
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 朱美麗zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chu, Mei-Lieen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡志堅zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tsai, Chih-Chienen_US
dc.creator (作者) 蔡志堅zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Tsai, Chih-Chienen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 17:22:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 17:22:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 17:22:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0922580061en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36170-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92258006zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) A considerable body of theoretical and empirical literature has evaluated the credit channel of monetary transmission. This paper sets up an open-economy model under floating exchange rates with imperfect international capital mobility based on the Bernanke and Blinder model (1988). Employing our model, we show that a change in money supply has different impacts on the economy in many cases compared to the previous literature. The exchange rate puzzle may occur and when the exchange rate puzzle appears, the Fleming proposition is violated. Besides, by means of a cointegration analysis, we empirically verify the particular case of the exchange rate puzzle with the monthly data from May 1984 to January 2005 in Taiwan. Therefore, our empirical evidences can be matched with our theoretical derivations successfully.zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Introduction-----------------------------------------1
     Chapter 2 Literature Review----------------------------------- 3
     Chapter 3 The Extended Bernanke and Blinder Model ----------- 11
     3.1 The model ------------------------------------------------11
     3.2 Graphical Representation -------------------------------- 15
     Chapter 4 Transmission of Monetary Impulses ----------------- 19
     4.1 Comparative Statics ------------------------------------- 19
     4.1.1 The Case with High International Capital Mobility-------20
     4.1.2 The Case with Low International Capital Mobility--------28
     4.2 Concluding Remarks ---------------------------------------35
     Chapter 5 More studies on the credit channel ---------------- 36
     5.1 Examinations of the Fleming Proposition ----------------- 36
     5.2 Preliminary Empirical Analysis -------------------------- 44
     5.2.1 Unit Root Test------------------------------------------45
     5.2.2 The Effect of a Money Supply Change on the Interest Rate46
     5.2.3 The Effect of a Money Supply Change on the Exchange Rate51
     5.3 Concluding Remarks----------------------------------------54
     Chapter 6 Conclusion and Suggestions--------------------------56
     6.1 Conclusion------------------------------------------------56
     6.2 Continuing Research and Suggestion------------------------57
     Reference-----------------------------------------------------59
     Appendix A----------------------------------------------------63
     Appendix B----------------------------------------------------64
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922580061en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用管道zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資本不完全移動zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 浮動匯率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fleming命題zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 共整合zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) credit channelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) imperfect internaitonal capital mobilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) floating exchange rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fleming propositionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) cointegrationen_US
dc.title (題名) More on Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Imperfect International Capital mobility: A Credit Viewzh_TW
dc.title (題名) 信用市場、資本不完全移動與浮動匯率之分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abrams, B. A. and F. R. Settle (2003), “Do Fixed Exchange Rates Fetter Monetary Policy? A Credit View,” NBER Working Papers, No. 2003-09.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bernanke, B. S. (1983), “Non-monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression,” American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No.3, pp. 257-276.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bernanke, B. S. and S. A. Blinder (1988), “Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand,” American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No.2, pp. 435-440.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bernanke, B. S. and S. A. Blinder (1992), “The Federal Fund Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission,” American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp. 901-921.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bernanke, B. S. and M. Gertler (1995), “Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 27-48.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Blinder, A. S. and J. E. Stiglitz (1983), “Money, Credit Constraints, and Economic Activity,” American Economy Review, Vol. 73, No. 2, pp. 297-302.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brunner, K. and A. H. Meltzer (1968), “Liquidity Traps for Money, Bank Credit, and Interest Rates,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76, No. 1, pp. 1-37.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chiades, P. and L. Gambacorta (2004), “The Bernanke and Blinder Model in an Open Economy: The Italian Case,” German Economic Review, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-34.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit root,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366, pp. 427-431.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 1057-1072.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eichengreen, B. (1997), “Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,” NBER working paper, No. 6060.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eichengreen, B. (2002), “Still Fettered After All These Years,” NBER Working Papers No. 9276.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Friedman, B. M. (1981), “The Relative Stability of Money and Credit Velocities in the United States: Evidence and Some Speculations,” NBER working paper, No. 645.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Friedman, B. M. (1982), “Debt and Economic Activity in the United States,” NBER working paper, No. 704.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Friedman, B. M. (1983b), “Monetary Policy with a Credit Aggregate Target,” NBER working paper, No. 980.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fleming, J. M. (1962), “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 9, pp. 369-379.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gertler, M. and S. Gilchrist (1993), “The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 95, No.1, pp. 43-64.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gertler, M. and S. Gilchrist (1994), “Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 2, pp. 309-340.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Godfrey, L. (1978), “Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables,” Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 1293-1302.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Godfrey, L. (1978), “Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables,” Econometria, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 1303-1310.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gonzalo, J. (1994), “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equlibrium Relationships,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 60, No. 1-2, pp. 203-233.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 231-254.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, No.2, pp. 169-210.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models,” Econometrica, Vol. 59, No.6, pp. 1551-1580.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1992), “Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 53, No. 1-3, pp. 211-244.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kashyap, A. K. and J. C. Stein (1995), “The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 42, pp. 151-195.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kashyap, A. K., J. C. Stein and D. W. Wilcox (1993), “Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance,” American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No.1, pp. 78-98.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ljung, G. M. and G. E. P. Box (1978), “On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models,” Biometrika, Vol. 67, pp. 297-303.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Martson, R. C. (1985), “Stabilization Policies in Open Economies,” NBER working paper, No. 1117.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Meltzer, A. H. (1995), “Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Prospective,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 49-72.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Modigliani, F. and R. Miller (1958), “The Cost of Capital, Corporate Finance and the Theory of Investment,” American Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 261-297.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mundell, R. A. (1963), “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates,” Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 15, No.4, pp. 87-103.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Patinkin, D. (1956), Money, Interest, and Prices, New York: Harper and Row.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pill, H. (1997), “Bank Behaviour and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Spain,” Graduate School of Business Administration Harvard University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Poole, W. (1970), “Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 197-216.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Romer, C. D. and D. H. Romer (1990), “New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1990, No. 1, pp. 149-213.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Samuelson, P. A. (1947), Foundation of Economic Analysis, Massa., Cambridgfe: Harvard University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stiglitz, J. E. and A. Weiss (1981), “Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information,” American Economy Review, Vol. 71, No.3, pp. 393-410.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Swoboda, A. K. (1972), “Equilibrium, Quasi-Equilibrium, and Macroeconomic Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 162-171.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Turnovsky, S. J. (1977), Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policies, London, Cambridge University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wu, Y. (1999), “More on Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Credit View,” Department of Economics and Finance, Franklin P. Perdue School of Business, Salisbury State University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wang, D. N. and G. H. Lee (2004), “The Empirical Analyses on the Monetary Policy Operations and the Transmission Mechanism in Taiwan-Concurrent Study on the Bank Credit Channel and the Stock Price Channel,” Central Bank of China Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 17-56. (in Chinese)zh_TW