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題名 Accounting for Uncovered Interest Rate Parity - The Permanent and Transitory Decomposition Approach
作者 張惠玲
貢獻者 郭炳伸<br>林信助
張惠玲
關鍵詞 UIP
decomposition
日期 2004
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 18:56:35 (UTC+8)
摘要 In most of the empirical research about the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), estimation of the condition at short horizons rejects this theoretical proposition and presents just opposite outcome, while estimation at long horizons reports more consistent results with the proposition. Based on the belief that permanent components may convey more information in the UIP condition, we adopt in this thesis the permanent-transitory decomposition approach introduced by Gonzalo
     and Granger (1995) to estimate the common long memory components
     of interest rates and that of exchange rate. We then re-evaluate the UIP condition using the decomposed permanent and transitory parts, respectively. Our results reinforce the stylized facts existing in the literature, while it remains to be answered why empirical evidence does not favor the UIP condition.
In most of the empirical research about the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), estimation of the condition at short horizons rejects this theoretical proposition and presents just opposite outcome, while estimation at long horizons reports more consistent results with the proposition. Based on the belief that permanent components may convey more information in the UIP condition, we adopt in this thesis the permanent-transitory decomposition approach introduced by Gonzalo
     and Granger (1995) to estimate the common long memory components
     of interest rates and that of exchange rate. We then re-evaluate the UIP condition using the decomposed permanent and transitory parts, respectively. Our results reinforce the stylized facts existing in the literature, while it remains to be answered why empirical evidence does not favor the UIP condition.
參考文獻 [1] Alexius, A. (2001), \\Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of In-
ternational Economics, 9(3), pp.505-517.
[2] Bekaert, G., M. Wei and Y. Xing (2002), \\Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
and the Term Structure," NBER Working Paper No.8795, February.
[3] Beveridge, S. and C. R. Nelson (1981), \\A New Approach to Decomposi-
tion of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components
with Particular Attention to Measurement of the "Business Cycle`," Jour-
nal of Monetary Economics, 7, pp.151-174.
[4] Chinn, M. D. and G. Meredith (2003), \\Monetary Policy and Long-
Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," forthcoming, IMF Sta® Papers.
[5] Chinn, M. D. and G. Meredith (2002), \\Testing Uncovered Interest Parity
at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," UCSC
Center for International Economics Working Paper, June.
[6] Froot, K. A. and R. H. Thaler (1990), \\Anomalies: Foreign Exchange,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(3), Summer, pp.179-192.
[7] Gonzalo, J. and C. Granger (1995), \\Estimation of Common Long-
Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of business &
economic statistics, Jan., 13(1), pp.27-35.
[8] Johansen, S. (1988), \\Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Jour-
nal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp.231-254.
[9] Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), \\Maximum Likelihood Estimation
and Inference on Cointegration- with Applications to the Demand for
Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), pp.169-210.
[10] MacDonald, R. and M. P. Taylor (1992), \\Exchange Rate Economics: A
survey," IMF Sta® Papers, 39(1), pp.1-57.
[11] Marey, P. S. (2004), \\Uncovered Interest Parity Tests and Exchange Rate
Expectations," Working Papers, ROA, Maastricht University.
[12] McCallum, B. T. (1994), \\A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest
Parity Relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, 33, pp.105-132.
[13] Meredith, G. and Y. Ma (2002), \\The Forward Premium Puzzle Revis-
ited," IMF Working Papers 02/28, November.
[14] Quah, D. (1992), \\The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory
Components: Identi‾cation and some Theoretical Bounds," Economet-
rica, 60, pp.107-118.
[15] Popper, H. (1993), \\Long-Term Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from
Currency Swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, 12,
pp.439-448.
[16] Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson (1988), \\Testing for common trends,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, pp.1097-1107.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
91351013
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913510131
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭炳伸<br>林信助zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張惠玲zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 張惠玲zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 18:56:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 18:56:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 18:56:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0913510131en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36599-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91351013zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In most of the empirical research about the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), estimation of the condition at short horizons rejects this theoretical proposition and presents just opposite outcome, while estimation at long horizons reports more consistent results with the proposition. Based on the belief that permanent components may convey more information in the UIP condition, we adopt in this thesis the permanent-transitory decomposition approach introduced by Gonzalo
     and Granger (1995) to estimate the common long memory components
     of interest rates and that of exchange rate. We then re-evaluate the UIP condition using the decomposed permanent and transitory parts, respectively. Our results reinforce the stylized facts existing in the literature, while it remains to be answered why empirical evidence does not favor the UIP condition.
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In most of the empirical research about the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), estimation of the condition at short horizons rejects this theoretical proposition and presents just opposite outcome, while estimation at long horizons reports more consistent results with the proposition. Based on the belief that permanent components may convey more information in the UIP condition, we adopt in this thesis the permanent-transitory decomposition approach introduced by Gonzalo
     and Granger (1995) to estimate the common long memory components
     of interest rates and that of exchange rate. We then re-evaluate the UIP condition using the decomposed permanent and transitory parts, respectively. Our results reinforce the stylized facts existing in the literature, while it remains to be answered why empirical evidence does not favor the UIP condition.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 3
     2 Methodology 6
     3 Data and Empirical Results 9
     4 Re-examination of the performance of the UIP condition 12
     5 Conclusion 17
     List of Tables
     1 The results of the UIP estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
     2 Estimation of Cointegration Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
     3 Re-examination of the UIP condition after decomposition . . . 32
     4 Summary of the Unit Root Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
     List of Figures
     1 The time series plot of the decomposed interest rates . . . . . 25
     2 The time series plot of the decomposed exchange rates . . . . 30
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0913510131en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) UIPen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) decompositionen_US
dc.title (題名) Accounting for Uncovered Interest Rate Parity - The Permanent and Transitory Decomposition Approachzh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] Alexius, A. (2001), \\Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of In-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ternational Economics, 9(3), pp.505-517.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2] Bekaert, G., M. Wei and Y. Xing (2002), \\Uncovered Interest Rate Parityzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) and the Term Structure," NBER Working Paper No.8795, February.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3] Beveridge, S. and C. R. Nelson (1981), \\A New Approach to Decomposi-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) tion of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Componentszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) with Particular Attention to Measurement of the "Business Cycle`," Jour-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) nal of Monetary Economics, 7, pp.151-174.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4] Chinn, M. D. and G. Meredith (2003), \\Monetary Policy and Long-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," forthcoming, IMF Sta® Papers.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5] Chinn, M. D. and G. Meredith (2002), \\Testing Uncovered Interest Parityzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," UCSCzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Center for International Economics Working Paper, June.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6] Froot, K. A. and R. H. Thaler (1990), \\Anomalies: Foreign Exchange,"zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(3), Summer, pp.179-192.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7] Gonzalo, J. and C. Granger (1995), \\Estimation of Common Long-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of business &zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) economic statistics, Jan., 13(1), pp.27-35.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8] Johansen, S. (1988), \\Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Jour-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) nal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp.231-254.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [9] Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), \\Maximum Likelihood Estimationzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) and Inference on Cointegration- with Applications to the Demand forzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), pp.169-210.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [10] MacDonald, R. and M. P. Taylor (1992), \\Exchange Rate Economics: Azh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) survey," IMF Sta® Papers, 39(1), pp.1-57.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [11] Marey, P. S. (2004), \\Uncovered Interest Parity Tests and Exchange Ratezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Expectations," Working Papers, ROA, Maastricht University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [12] McCallum, B. T. (1994), \\A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interestzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Parity Relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, 33, pp.105-132.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [13] Meredith, G. and Y. Ma (2002), \\The Forward Premium Puzzle Revis-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ited," IMF Working Papers 02/28, November.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [14] Quah, D. (1992), \\The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitoryzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Components: Identi‾cation and some Theoretical Bounds," Economet-zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) rica, 60, pp.107-118.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [15] Popper, H. (1993), \\Long-Term Covered Interest Parity: Evidence fromzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Currency Swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, 12,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) pp.439-448.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [16] Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson (1988), \\Testing for common trends,"zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, pp.1097-1107.zh_TW