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題名 Robust Portfolio Selection Based on the Shrinkage Estimation
穩健資產組合選擇: 收縮估計式的應用
作者 莊珮玲
Chuang,Pei-ling
貢獻者 郭炳伸
Kuo,Biing-Shen
莊珮玲
Chuang,Pei-ling
關鍵詞 shrinkage estimation
classical estimation
portfolio selection
MSE
日期 2004
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 18:56:53 (UTC+8)
摘要 When portfolio selection is implemented by using the past sample values, parameter uncertainty may lead to suboptimal portfolios. Previous studies of portfolio selection demonstrate that classical approach based on the simple mean estimator is less reliable cause of inherent estimation error. In this paper, we investigate a shrinkage estimator based on Stein’s idea in measuring the expected returns. We apply the research of Jorion (1985) to Taiwan Stock market, present the effects of estimation error on the portfolio selection and demonstrate that the shrinkage estimator is robust and dominates the classical estimator on the MSE criterion. In addition, we also examine the effect of different shrinkage target on the performance of the Bayes-Stein estimator and find that this estimator still has lower risk than the classical sample mean.
參考文獻 [1] Bawa, V. S., Brown, S. J., and Klein, R. W. (1979) , “Estimation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice.” In Studies in Bayesian Econometrics, Zellner, A., and Kadane, J.B. eds. Amsterdam: North Holland.
[2] Brandt, M. W. (2004) , “Portfolio Choice Problems.” In Y. Ait-Sahalia and L. P. Hansen, eds., Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Elsevier Science: Amsterdam.
[3] Efron, B., and Morris, C. (1977) , “Stein’s Paradox in Statistics.” Scientific American, 236(5) , 119-127.
[4] James, W., and Stein, C. (1961) , “Estimation with Quadratic Loss.” Proceedings of the 4th Berkeley Symposium on Probability and Statistics 1. Berkeley: Univ. of Calif. Press , 361-279.
[5] Jobson, J. D., and B. Korkie. (1980) , “Estimation for Markowitz Efficient Portfolios.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75 , 544-554.
[6] Jorion, P. (1985) , “International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk.” Journal of Business, 58 , 259-278.
[7] Jorion, P. (1986) , “Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 21 , 279-292.
[8] Lee, C. F., Finnerty, J. E., and Wort, D. H. (1990) , Security Analysis and Portfolio Management . Scott, Foresman/Little, Brown Higher Education .
[9] Levy, H., and Sarnat, M. (1984) , Portfolio And Investment Selection: Theory And Practice. Prentice-Hall International, Inc.
[10] Markowitz, H. M. (1959) , Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: Wiley and Sons.
[11] Perritt, G. W., and Lavine, A. (1989) , Diversify: The Investor’s Guide To Asset Allocations Strategies. Longman Financial Services Publishing.
[12] Reilly, F. K., and Brown, K. C. (2000) , Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management. The Dryden press.
[13] Stein, C. (1955) , “Inadmissibility of the Usual Estimator for the Mean of a Multivariate Normal Distribution.” Proceedings of the 3rd Berkeley Symposium on Probability and Statistics 1. Berkeley: Univ. of Calif. Press , 197-206.
[14] Stevenson, S. (2000) , “Bayes-Stein Estimation and International Real Estate Allocation.” Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference (PRRES) , Sydney.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
92351018
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923510181
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭炳伸zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Kuo,Biing-Shenen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莊珮玲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chuang,Pei-lingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 莊珮玲zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chuang,Pei-lingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 18:56:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 18:56:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 18:56:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0923510181en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36601-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92351018zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) When portfolio selection is implemented by using the past sample values, parameter uncertainty may lead to suboptimal portfolios. Previous studies of portfolio selection demonstrate that classical approach based on the simple mean estimator is less reliable cause of inherent estimation error. In this paper, we investigate a shrinkage estimator based on Stein’s idea in measuring the expected returns. We apply the research of Jorion (1985) to Taiwan Stock market, present the effects of estimation error on the portfolio selection and demonstrate that the shrinkage estimator is robust and dominates the classical estimator on the MSE criterion. In addition, we also examine the effect of different shrinkage target on the performance of the Bayes-Stein estimator and find that this estimator still has lower risk than the classical sample mean.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Contents
     1 Introduction ………………………………………………1
     2 Markowitz portfolio selection model ……………… 3
     3 Estimation risk of Classical approach in Portfolio selection 9
     4 Shrinkage Estimation ………………………………… 14
     5 The results of a practical application ……………18
     5.1 The design ………………………………………………18
     5.2 Comparison of Stein estimator and classical estimator …21
     5.2.1 The general result ………………………………………21
     5.2.2 The results of another shrinkage target ………… 27
     6 Conclusion ……………………………………………………. 32
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923510181en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) shrinkage estimationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) classical estimationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) portfolio selectionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) MSEen_US
dc.title (題名) Robust Portfolio Selection Based on the Shrinkage Estimationzh_TW
dc.title (題名) 穩健資產組合選擇: 收縮估計式的應用zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] Bawa, V. S., Brown, S. J., and Klein, R. W. (1979) , “Estimation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice.” In Studies in Bayesian Econometrics, Zellner, A., and Kadane, J.B. eds. Amsterdam: North Holland.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2] Brandt, M. W. (2004) , “Portfolio Choice Problems.” In Y. Ait-Sahalia and L. P. Hansen, eds., Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Elsevier Science: Amsterdam.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3] Efron, B., and Morris, C. (1977) , “Stein’s Paradox in Statistics.” Scientific American, 236(5) , 119-127.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4] James, W., and Stein, C. (1961) , “Estimation with Quadratic Loss.” Proceedings of the 4th Berkeley Symposium on Probability and Statistics 1. Berkeley: Univ. of Calif. Press , 361-279.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5] Jobson, J. D., and B. Korkie. (1980) , “Estimation for Markowitz Efficient Portfolios.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75 , 544-554.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6] Jorion, P. (1985) , “International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk.” Journal of Business, 58 , 259-278.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7] Jorion, P. (1986) , “Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 21 , 279-292.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8] Lee, C. F., Finnerty, J. E., and Wort, D. H. (1990) , Security Analysis and Portfolio Management . Scott, Foresman/Little, Brown Higher Education .zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [9] Levy, H., and Sarnat, M. (1984) , Portfolio And Investment Selection: Theory And Practice. Prentice-Hall International, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [10] Markowitz, H. M. (1959) , Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: Wiley and Sons.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [11] Perritt, G. W., and Lavine, A. (1989) , Diversify: The Investor’s Guide To Asset Allocations Strategies. Longman Financial Services Publishing.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [12] Reilly, F. K., and Brown, K. C. (2000) , Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management. The Dryden press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [13] Stein, C. (1955) , “Inadmissibility of the Usual Estimator for the Mean of a Multivariate Normal Distribution.” Proceedings of the 3rd Berkeley Symposium on Probability and Statistics 1. Berkeley: Univ. of Calif. Press , 197-206.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [14] Stevenson, S. (2000) , “Bayes-Stein Estimation and International Real Estate Allocation.” Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference (PRRES) , Sydney.zh_TW