Publications-Theses

題名 台北外匯市場交易量與波動性關係之實證分析
An Empirical study of the relation between trading volume and volatility in the Taipei foreign exchange market
作者 楊立吉
Yang, Li ji
貢獻者 山本竜市
Yamamoto, Ryuichi
楊立吉
Yang, Li ji
關鍵詞 交易量
波動性
台北外匯市場
Volume
Volatility
Taipei foreign exchange market
日期 2007
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 19:58:29 (UTC+8)
摘要 本篇研究利用2004年1月至2007年12月的日資料探討台北外匯市場的波動性與交易量關係,實證結果與過去的研究相符,本文發現交易量與波動性呈現正的關係。本文亦將交易量拆成「預期到」與「未預期到」的部分,實證結果發現未預期到的交易量與波動性呈現正的關係,此結果與混合分配假說的預期相符,表示當新的資訊流入市場時,交易量與波動性會同時受到衝擊;此外,預期到的交易量與波動性的關係不顯著,因此沒有證據可推測台北外匯市場是否有效率。
In this study, I examine the interaction of volume and volatility in the Taipei foreign exchange market over January 2004 to December 2007. Consistent with empirical results of previous research, I find a positive relation between total trading volume and volatility. I also decompose total volume into expected and unexpected components. I find a positive relation between unexpected volume and volatility. This result is consistent with MDH, which supposes that volume and volatility are both driven by a common and unobservable factor that reflects the arrival of new public information. Regarding the expected volume, a weakly positive correlation with the volatility was observed. There is weak evidence that the Taipei foreign exchange market is efficient.
參考文獻 Arago, V. and L. Nieto, (2005). “Heteroskedasticity in the returns of the main world stock exchange indexes: Volume versus GARCH effects.” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 15, 271–284.
Baillie, R. T. and T. Bollerslev (1989). “The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale”, Journal of Bussiness & Statistics, p. 297-305.
Bessembinder, H. and P. J. Seguin (1992). “Futures-trading activity and stock price volatility.” Journal of Finance, 47(5), 2015–2034.
Bessembinder, H. and P.J. Seguin, (1993). “Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth: Evidence from the futures markets.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 28, 21–39.
Bessembinder, H., (1994). “Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets.” Journal of Financial Economics 35 (3), 317-348.
Bhanumurthy, N. R. (2000). “Microstructures in the Indian Foreign Exchange Market.” Institute of Economic Growth, University of Delhi Enclave, http://iegindia.org/workbhanu250.pdf.
BIS, Bank for International Settlements. (2005). “Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications.” N. 24, 1-10.
Bjønnes, G. H., D. Rime and H. Solheim (2003). “Volume and Volatility in the FX Market: Does it matter who you are?” Working Paper 2003/7, Norges Bank.
Bolerslev, T. (1986). “Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-27.
Brandi, VR., BV de Melo Mendes, FP Gomes, MBC dos Santos. “Foreign Exchange Volatility and Trading Volume of Derivatives Instruments: Evidence from the Brazilian Market.” Latin American Business Review, Volume 8, Issue 1, pp. 65-82(18).
Chen, G., M. Firth and O. Rui (2001). “The dynamic relation between stock returns, trading volume, and volatility.” The Financial Review, 36 (3), 153–174.
Clark, P. K. (1973). “A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices.” Econometrica, 41, 135–55.
Epps, T. W. and M. L. Epps (1976). “The stochastic dependence of security price changes and transaction volumes: Implication for the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis.” Econometrica, 44, 305–322.
Evans, M. D. and R. K. Lyons (2002). “Order flow and exchange rate dynamics.” Journal of Political Economy, 110, 170–180.
Gau, Yin-Feng, (2005) “Intraday Volatility in the Taipei FX Market,” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13, 471-487.
Galac, T., Burić, A., Huljak, I. (2006). “Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Market in Croatia.” Working paper, Croatian National Bank.
Galati, G. (2000). “Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: Evidence from emerging market countries.” Working paper 93, Bank for International Settlements.
Girard, E. and Biswas, R., (2007). “Trading Volume and Market Volatility: Developed versus Emerging Stock Markets.” The Financial Review 42, 429–459.
Hartmann, P. (1999). “Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market. evidence from daily dollar–yen spot data.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 23, 801–24.
Jorion, P. (1996). ” Risk and turnover in the foreign exchange market”, in: Frankel, Galli and Giovannini (eds., 1996), The microstructure of foreign exchange markets, University of Chicago Press, 19-36.
Karpoff, J. M. (1987). “The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22(1), 109–26.
Kouki, I. (2003). “Trading Volume, Volatility, Order Flow and Spread: Evidence of Tunisian Daler”, Universite Jean-Moulin Lyon III, Working Paper.
Lamoureux, C. G. and Lastrapes, W. D. (1990). “Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume Versus GARCH Effects.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, pp. 221–230.
Luu, JC. and M. Martens (2003). “Testing the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis using ““realized”” volatility.” Journal of Futures markets, Volume 23, Issue 7 , Pages 661 – 679.
Park, B. J. (2007). “Trading Volume, Volatility, and GARCH Effects in the South Korean Won/US Dollar Exchange Market: Evidence from Conditional Quantile Estimation.” Japanese Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 382-399, September 2007”
Tauchen, G. E. and M. Pitts (1983). “The Price Variability-volume Relationship on Speculative Markets.” Econometrica, 51, 485–505.
Walker, A. (2002). “The Microstructure of the Jamaican Foreign Exchange Market: Volumes, Volatility and Spreads”, Bank of Jamaica Working Paper, February.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
95351011
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 山本竜市zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yamamoto, Ryuichien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊立吉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Li jien_US
dc.creator (作者) 楊立吉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yang, Li jien_US
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 19:58:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 19:58:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 19:58:29 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095351011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36862-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95351011zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本篇研究利用2004年1月至2007年12月的日資料探討台北外匯市場的波動性與交易量關係,實證結果與過去的研究相符,本文發現交易量與波動性呈現正的關係。本文亦將交易量拆成「預期到」與「未預期到」的部分,實證結果發現未預期到的交易量與波動性呈現正的關係,此結果與混合分配假說的預期相符,表示當新的資訊流入市場時,交易量與波動性會同時受到衝擊;此外,預期到的交易量與波動性的關係不顯著,因此沒有證據可推測台北外匯市場是否有效率。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In this study, I examine the interaction of volume and volatility in the Taipei foreign exchange market over January 2004 to December 2007. Consistent with empirical results of previous research, I find a positive relation between total trading volume and volatility. I also decompose total volume into expected and unexpected components. I find a positive relation between unexpected volume and volatility. This result is consistent with MDH, which supposes that volume and volatility are both driven by a common and unobservable factor that reflects the arrival of new public information. Regarding the expected volume, a weakly positive correlation with the volatility was observed. There is weak evidence that the Taipei foreign exchange market is efficient.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract …………………………………………………………………… I
Table of Contents ……………………………………………………… II
Figures and Tables …………………………………………………… III
1. Introduction …………………………………………………………… 1
2. Literature Review …………………………………………………… 7
3. Data ……………………………………………………………………… 11
3.1 Exchange Rate ……………………………………………………… 12
3.2 Volatility …………………………………………………………… 13
3.3 Volume ………………………………………………………………… 14
4. Empirical Result …………………………………………………… 17
4.1 Methodology ………………………………………………………… 17
4.1.1 Unit Root Test ……………………………………………… 17
4.1.2 ARMA ……………………………………………………………… 18
4.1.3 GARCH …………………………………………………………… 19
4.2 Relation between Volume and Volatility ……………… 22
5. Conclusion …………………………………………………………… 24
References ………………………………………………………………… 25
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 47673 bytes-
dc.format.extent 62293 bytes-
dc.format.extent 12866 bytes-
dc.format.extent 15132 bytes-
dc.format.extent 28853 bytes-
dc.format.extent 21346 bytes-
dc.format.extent 78781 bytes-
dc.format.extent 59534 bytes-
dc.format.extent 13784 bytes-
dc.format.extent 81426 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 交易量zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 波動性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台北外匯市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Volumeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Volatilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taipei foreign exchange marketen_US
dc.title (題名) 台北外匯市場交易量與波動性關係之實證分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An Empirical study of the relation between trading volume and volatility in the Taipei foreign exchange marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Arago, V. and L. Nieto, (2005). “Heteroskedasticity in the returns of the main world stock exchange indexes: Volume versus GARCH effects.” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 15, 271–284.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Baillie, R. T. and T. Bollerslev (1989). “The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale”, Journal of Bussiness & Statistics, p. 297-305.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bessembinder, H. and P. J. Seguin (1992). “Futures-trading activity and stock price volatility.” Journal of Finance, 47(5), 2015–2034.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bessembinder, H. and P.J. Seguin, (1993). “Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth: Evidence from the futures markets.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 28, 21–39.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bessembinder, H., (1994). “Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets.” Journal of Financial Economics 35 (3), 317-348.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bhanumurthy, N. R. (2000). “Microstructures in the Indian Foreign Exchange Market.” Institute of Economic Growth, University of Delhi Enclave, http://iegindia.org/workbhanu250.pdf.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) BIS, Bank for International Settlements. (2005). “Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications.” N. 24, 1-10.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bjønnes, G. H., D. Rime and H. Solheim (2003). “Volume and Volatility in the FX Market: Does it matter who you are?” Working Paper 2003/7, Norges Bank.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bolerslev, T. (1986). “Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-27.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brandi, VR., BV de Melo Mendes, FP Gomes, MBC dos Santos. “Foreign Exchange Volatility and Trading Volume of Derivatives Instruments: Evidence from the Brazilian Market.” Latin American Business Review, Volume 8, Issue 1, pp. 65-82(18).zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen, G., M. Firth and O. Rui (2001). “The dynamic relation between stock returns, trading volume, and volatility.” The Financial Review, 36 (3), 153–174.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Clark, P. K. (1973). “A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices.” Econometrica, 41, 135–55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Epps, T. W. and M. L. Epps (1976). “The stochastic dependence of security price changes and transaction volumes: Implication for the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis.” Econometrica, 44, 305–322.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Evans, M. D. and R. K. Lyons (2002). “Order flow and exchange rate dynamics.” Journal of Political Economy, 110, 170–180.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gau, Yin-Feng, (2005) “Intraday Volatility in the Taipei FX Market,” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13, 471-487.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Galac, T., Burić, A., Huljak, I. (2006). “Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Market in Croatia.” Working paper, Croatian National Bank.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Galati, G. (2000). “Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: Evidence from emerging market countries.” Working paper 93, Bank for International Settlements.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Girard, E. and Biswas, R., (2007). “Trading Volume and Market Volatility: Developed versus Emerging Stock Markets.” The Financial Review 42, 429–459.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hartmann, P. (1999). “Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market. evidence from daily dollar–yen spot data.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 23, 801–24.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jorion, P. (1996). ” Risk and turnover in the foreign exchange market”, in: Frankel, Galli and Giovannini (eds., 1996), The microstructure of foreign exchange markets, University of Chicago Press, 19-36.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Karpoff, J. M. (1987). “The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22(1), 109–26.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kouki, I. (2003). “Trading Volume, Volatility, Order Flow and Spread: Evidence of Tunisian Daler”, Universite Jean-Moulin Lyon III, Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lamoureux, C. G. and Lastrapes, W. D. (1990). “Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume Versus GARCH Effects.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, pp. 221–230.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Luu, JC. and M. Martens (2003). “Testing the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis using ““realized”” volatility.” Journal of Futures markets, Volume 23, Issue 7 , Pages 661 – 679.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Park, B. J. (2007). “Trading Volume, Volatility, and GARCH Effects in the South Korean Won/US Dollar Exchange Market: Evidence from Conditional Quantile Estimation.” Japanese Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 382-399, September 2007”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tauchen, G. E. and M. Pitts (1983). “The Price Variability-volume Relationship on Speculative Markets.” Econometrica, 51, 485–505.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Walker, A. (2002). “The Microstructure of the Jamaican Foreign Exchange Market: Volumes, Volatility and Spreads”, Bank of Jamaica Working Paper, February.zh_TW