| dc.contributor.advisor | 馬秀如 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 陳雅蘭 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Chen,Ya Lan | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 陳雅蘭 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chen,Ya Lan | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2006 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 18-Sep-2009 20:03:34 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 18-Sep-2009 20:03:34 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 18-Sep-2009 20:03:34 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0093353044 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36889 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 會計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 93353044 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 95 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 強制性財務預測揭露制度已實施十多年，惟財務預測品質不佳、管理當局刻意操縱財務預測以影響股價等問題遲遲無法解決，致金管會乃決定自2005起廢止舊制，改採自願性財務預測揭露制度。本次改革除符合國際做法之外，並期望能達到降低公司財務預測成本、提高預測準確度，以及健全預測資訊公開之環境。 2005年為實施自願性財務預測揭露制度之第一個年度，當年上市（櫃）公司中，只有約6%的公司自願公開其財務預測。本研究認為，對投資人而言，財務預測既為有用資訊，為何願意公開財務預測的公司卻如此少呢？故本研究欲辨認左右公司是否公開財務預測行為之因素。 本研究設立七項與管理當局自願性揭露財務預測有關之決定因素─內部人持股比率、資本結構、資金需求、經營績效、盈餘波動性、權益資金成本，以及外資持股率，並以公司規模、產業、負債對權益比率為控制變數。研究樣本為2005年之上市(櫃)公司，將其分成兩組，ㄧ組為當年度自願揭露財務預測之公司，另ㄧ組則為當年度未曾揭露財務預測之公司，運用logit進行迴歸分析。 實證分析結果顯示，揭露與不揭露財務預測公司之主要不同特質，在於：公司過去經營績效之好壞及外資對公司之持股比率。過去經營績效較佳之公司，其主動揭露財務預測資訊給外界之機率較高；外資持股比率越高之公司，其主動揭露財務預測給外界之機率較高。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This study examines the factors that affect managers to disclosure financial forecasts. Seven potential factors were compared for a sample of firms that reported forecasts and another sample of firms that did not release this information. The seven factors are: (1) the proportion of inside ownership, (2) capital structure, (3) the demand for external finance, (4) the business performance, (5) earnings volatility, (6) the cost of equity capital, (7) the proportion of foreign ownership. There are three control variables, including size, industry and the ratio of debt to equity. The findings report that the better the past business performance is, the more the probability that the manager will voluntarily disclose financial forecast is. The findings also report that the higher the proportion of foreign ownership is, the more willing the manager is to voluntarily disclose financial forecast. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究問題 5第三節 預期成果 6第四節 研究架構 7第五節 論文架構 8第二章 文獻探討 9第一節 財務預測制度發展沿革 9第二節 現行財務預測制度 13第三節 管理當局自願性公布財務預測之動機 15第三章 研究方法 31第一節 研究假說之建立 31第二節 實證模型及變數衡量 35第三節 樣本蒐集與整理 41第四章 實證結果 43第一節 敘述統計量及單變量分析 43第二節 多變量分析結果 48第五章 結論與建議 51第一節 研究結論 51第二節 研究限制 53第三節 研究建議 54參考文獻 55 | zh_TW |
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| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093353044 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 財務預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 自願揭露 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 影響因素 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Financial forecast | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Voluntary disclosure | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Factor | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 公司自願揭露財務預測影響因素之研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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