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題名 雙重保護之羅網-雙層擔保債權憑證之評價與避險
作者 李蕙君
貢獻者 江彌修
李蕙君
關鍵詞 信用衍生性商品
信用風險
合成型雙層擔保債權憑證
分券避險比例
日期 2006
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 20:16:23 (UTC+8)
摘要 雙層擔保債權憑證(CDO-squared)是目前全球資產證券化商品市場相當熱門之商品,回顧國內對信用風險之研究,極少有相關文獻或研究被提出。本研究乃以合成型雙層擔保債權憑證(synthetic CDO-squared)為主體,試圖以一套毋須進行蒙地卡羅模擬之半解析式評價模型為基礎,目的旨在探討雙層擔保債權憑證具有高投資收益的背後,所隱含之風險程度為何?廣泛探索各種不同分券(tranches)之風險特徵,透過比較分析使各個分券間之相互關係能環環相扣,進而對此商品之風險/報酬特性有全面性之瞭解並規劃合適避險策略。本研究在違約事件為條件式獨立的假設下,運用遞迴法則(recursive algorithm)及一個多維超立方體結構(hyper-cube)建構出雙層擔保債權憑證之損失分配,並以求得之評價模型為風險分析之基礎,得到下列發現與避險涵義:(1)雙層擔保債權憑證雖然標榜具有雙重的信用違約保護且能達到更大程度的投資組合分散,同時兼顧利潤與風險的平衡,但實際上卻是高槓桿程度的商品。(2)名目本金數額及分券信用評等之揭露無法反映分券風險本質,市場參與者需要仔細區分風險金額移轉數目與內含風險移轉程度之差異。(3)應用delta避險策略可以規避分券所面臨之市場風險,而使避險組合價值不受標的資產市場價差波動之影響,繼而經由避險成本之求算,可適當選用數個單一信用違約交換(single name CDS)或信用違約交換指數來進行有效之避險。
參考文獻 Andersen, L. and Sidenius, J., 2005, “Extensions to the Gaussian Copula: Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, Journal of Credit Risk, 1, No. 1.
Andersen, L., Sidenius, J., and Basu, S., 2003, “All your Hedges in One Basket”, RISK, November, 67-72.
Anderson, R. and Sundaresan, S., 1996, “Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts”,
Review of Financial Studies 9, 37-68.
Baheti, P., Mashal, R., Naldi, M., and Schloegl., 2005, “Squaring factor copula models”, Risk, to appear.
Black, F. and Cox, J. C., 1976, “Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond
Indenture Provisions”, Journal of Finance 31, 351-367.
Black, F. and Scholes, M., 1973, “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”,
Journal of Political Economy 81, 637-654.
Collin-Dufresne, P. and Goldstein, R., 2001, “Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary
Leverage Ratios?”, Journal of Finance 56, 1929-1957.
Collin-Dufresne, P., Goldstein, R., and Hugonnier J., 2004, “A General Formula for Pricing Defaultable Claims”, Econometrica, 72, No. 5, 1377-1407.
Davis, M. and Lo, V., 1999, “Modelling Default Correlation in Bond Portfolios”,
Working Paper, Tokyo-Mitsubitshi International.
Duffee, G. R., 1999, “Estimating the Price of Default Risk”, Review of Financial
Studies, Spring, 12, No. 1, 197-225.
Duffie, D., 1998, “Defaultable Term Structure Models with Fractional Recovery of
Par”, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.
Duffie, D. and Singleton, K. J., 1999, “Modeling the Term Structures of
Defaultable Bonds”, Review of Financial Studies, 12, 687-720.
Duffie, D. and Lando, D., 2001, “Term Structure of Credit Spreads with Incomplete
Accounting Information”, Econometrica 69, 633-664.
Eom, Y. H., Helwege, J., and Huang, J. Z., 2003, “Structural Models of Corporate
Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis”, Review of Financial Studies 17, 499-544.
Embrechts, P., McNeal, A., and Straumann, D., 1999, “Correlation and Dependence in
Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls”, Working Paper, Risklab, ETHZ, Zurich.
Frey, R., McNeil, A., and Nyfeler, M., 2001, “Copulas and Credit Models”, Risk, October, 111-113.
Geske, R., 1977, “The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options”, Journal
of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 12, 541-552.
Geske, R., 1979, “The Valuation of Compound Options”, Journal of Financial Economics
7, 63-81.
Gibson, M., 2004, “Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs”, FEDS Discussion Papers, No. 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Hull, J. and White, A., 2001, “Valuing Credit Default Swaps II: Modelling Default
Correlations”, Journal of Derivatives 8, 12-22.
Hull, J. and White, A., 2004, “Valuation of a CDO and an nth to Default CDS without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, 2, 8-23.
Hull, J., Predescu, M., and White, A., 2006, “The Valuation of Correlation-Dependent Credit Derivatives Using a Structural Model”, Working Paper
Jarrow, R. and Turnbull, S., 1995, “Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject
to Credit Risk”, Journal of Finance 50, 53-86.
Jarrow, R. and Yu, F., 2001, “Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable
Securities”, Journal of Finance 56, 1765-1799.
Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., and Turnbull, S. M., 1997, “A Markov Model for the
Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads”, Review of Financial Studies, 10, 481-523.
Jones, P., Mason, S., and Rosenfeld, E., 1984, “Contingent Claim Analysis of Corporate
Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Finance 39, 611-625.
Kim, I. J., Ramaswamy, K., and Sundaresan, S., 1993, “Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model”, Financial
Management, 22, No. 3, 117-131.
Lando, D., 1998, “On Cox Processes and Credit Risky Securities”, Review of
Derivatives Research, 2, 99-120.
Laurent, J. P. and Gregory, J., 2003, “Basket Default Swaps, CDOs and Factor Copulas”, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyon, Working Paper.
Leland, H. E., 1994, “Risky Debt, Bond Covenants and Optimal Capital Structure”, Journal of Finance 49, 1213-1252.
Leland, H. E. and Toft, K. B., 1996, “Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads”, Journal of Finance 50, 789-819.
Li, D., 2000, “On Default Correlation: a Copula Approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, 9, 43-54.
Longstaff, F. A. and Schwartz, E. S., 1995, “A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt”, Journal of Finance, 50, 789-819.
Mella-Barral, P. and Perraudin, W., 1997, “Strategic Debt Service”, Journal of Finance
52, 531-566.
Merton, R., 1974, “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: the Risk Structure of Interest
Rates”, Journal of Finance 29, 449-470.
Neugebauer, M., 2006, “Understanding and Hedging Risks in Synthetic CDO Tranches”, Fitch Ratings,
Nielsen, L. T., Jesus Saà-Requejo, and Pedro Santa-Clara, 1993, “Default Risk and
Interest Rate Risk: The Term Structure of Default Spreads”, Working Paper, INSEAD.
Schönbucher, P. J. and Schubert, D., 2001, “Copula-Dependent Default Risk in Intensity
Models”, Working Paper, Department of Statistics, Bonn University.

Sklar, A., 1959, “Fonctions de Repartition a n Dimensions et leurs Marges”, Publ. Inst.
Stat. Univ. Paris 8, 229-231.
Zhou, C., 1997, “A Jump-Diffusion Approach to Modelling Credit Risk and Valuing
Defaultable Securities”, Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
Zhou, C., 2001, “The Term Structure of Credit Spreads with Jump Risk”,
Journal of Banking & Finance 25, 2015-2040.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
93352020
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352020
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 江彌修zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李蕙君zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李蕙君zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 20:16:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 20:16:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 20:16:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093352020en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36955-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93352020zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 雙層擔保債權憑證(CDO-squared)是目前全球資產證券化商品市場相當熱門之商品,回顧國內對信用風險之研究,極少有相關文獻或研究被提出。本研究乃以合成型雙層擔保債權憑證(synthetic CDO-squared)為主體,試圖以一套毋須進行蒙地卡羅模擬之半解析式評價模型為基礎,目的旨在探討雙層擔保債權憑證具有高投資收益的背後,所隱含之風險程度為何?廣泛探索各種不同分券(tranches)之風險特徵,透過比較分析使各個分券間之相互關係能環環相扣,進而對此商品之風險/報酬特性有全面性之瞭解並規劃合適避險策略。本研究在違約事件為條件式獨立的假設下,運用遞迴法則(recursive algorithm)及一個多維超立方體結構(hyper-cube)建構出雙層擔保債權憑證之損失分配,並以求得之評價模型為風險分析之基礎,得到下列發現與避險涵義:(1)雙層擔保債權憑證雖然標榜具有雙重的信用違約保護且能達到更大程度的投資組合分散,同時兼顧利潤與風險的平衡,但實際上卻是高槓桿程度的商品。(2)名目本金數額及分券信用評等之揭露無法反映分券風險本質,市場參與者需要仔細區分風險金額移轉數目與內含風險移轉程度之差異。(3)應用delta避險策略可以規避分券所面臨之市場風險,而使避險組合價值不受標的資產市場價差波動之影響,繼而經由避險成本之求算,可適當選用數個單一信用違約交換(single name CDS)或信用違約交換指數來進行有效之避險。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究架構 2
第貳章 文獻探討 3
第一節 雙層擔保債權憑證之介紹 3
第二節 文獻回顧 7
第參章 基本假設與模型設定 13
第一節 合成型雙層擔保債權憑證之評價模型 13
第二節 合成型雙層擔保債權憑證之風險分析 22
第肆章 數值結果與分析 27
第一節 合成型雙層擔保債權憑證之評價 27
第二節 合成型雙層擔保債權憑證之風險分析 36
第三節 合成型雙層擔保債權憑證之敏感度分析 44
第伍章 結論與建議 51
第一節 結論 51
第二節 未來研究建議 52
參考文獻 53
zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093352020en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用衍生性商品zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用風險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成型雙層擔保債權憑證zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分券避險比例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 雙重保護之羅網-雙層擔保債權憑證之評價與避險zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, L. and Sidenius, J., 2005, “Extensions to the Gaussian Copula: Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, Journal of Credit Risk, 1, No. 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, L., Sidenius, J., and Basu, S., 2003, “All your Hedges in One Basket”, RISK, November, 67-72.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anderson, R. and Sundaresan, S., 1996, “Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts”,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Review of Financial Studies 9, 37-68.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Baheti, P., Mashal, R., Naldi, M., and Schloegl., 2005, “Squaring factor copula models”, Risk, to appear.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F. and Cox, J. C., 1976, “Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bondzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Indenture Provisions”, Journal of Finance 31, 351-367.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F. and Scholes, M., 1973, “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of Political Economy 81, 637-654.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Collin-Dufresne, P. and Goldstein, R., 2001, “Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationaryzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Leverage Ratios?”, Journal of Finance 56, 1929-1957.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Collin-Dufresne, P., Goldstein, R., and Hugonnier J., 2004, “A General Formula for Pricing Defaultable Claims”, Econometrica, 72, No. 5, 1377-1407.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Davis, M. and Lo, V., 1999, “Modelling Default Correlation in Bond Portfolios”,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Working Paper, Tokyo-Mitsubitshi International.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffee, G. R., 1999, “Estimating the Price of Default Risk”, Review of Financialzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Studies, Spring, 12, No. 1, 197-225.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D., 1998, “Defaultable Term Structure Models with Fractional Recovery ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Par”, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and Singleton, K. J., 1999, “Modeling the Term Structures ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Defaultable Bonds”, Review of Financial Studies, 12, 687-720.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and Lando, D., 2001, “Term Structure of Credit Spreads with Incompletezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Accounting Information”, Econometrica 69, 633-664.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eom, Y. H., Helwege, J., and Huang, J. Z., 2003, “Structural Models of Corporatezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis”, Review of Financial Studies 17, 499-544.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Embrechts, P., McNeal, A., and Straumann, D., 1999, “Correlation and Dependence inzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls”, Working Paper, Risklab, ETHZ, Zurich.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Frey, R., McNeil, A., and Nyfeler, M., 2001, “Copulas and Credit Models”, Risk, October, 111-113.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Geske, R., 1977, “The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options”, Journalzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 12, 541-552.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Geske, R., 1979, “The Valuation of Compound Options”, Journal of Financial Economicszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7, 63-81.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gibson, M., 2004, “Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs”, FEDS Discussion Papers, No. 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J. and White, A., 2001, “Valuing Credit Default Swaps II: Modelling Defaultzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Correlations”, Journal of Derivatives 8, 12-22.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J. and White, A., 2004, “Valuation of a CDO and an nth to Default CDS without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, 2, 8-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J., Predescu, M., and White, A., 2006, “The Valuation of Correlation-Dependent Credit Derivatives Using a Structural Model”, Working Paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and Turnbull, S., 1995, “Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subjectzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) to Credit Risk”, Journal of Finance 50, 53-86.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. and Yu, F., 2001, “Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultablezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Securities”, Journal of Finance 56, 1765-1799.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., and Turnbull, S. M., 1997, “A Markov Model for thezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads”, Review of Financial Studies, 10, 481-523.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jones, P., Mason, S., and Rosenfeld, E., 1984, “Contingent Claim Analysis of Corporatezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Finance 39, 611-625.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kim, I. J., Ramaswamy, K., and Sundaresan, S., 1993, “Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model”, Financialzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Management, 22, No. 3, 117-131.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lando, D., 1998, “On Cox Processes and Credit Risky Securities”, Review ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Derivatives Research, 2, 99-120.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Laurent, J. P. and Gregory, J., 2003, “Basket Default Swaps, CDOs and Factor Copulas”, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyon, Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Leland, H. E., 1994, “Risky Debt, Bond Covenants and Optimal Capital Structure”, Journal of Finance 49, 1213-1252.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Leland, H. E. and Toft, K. B., 1996, “Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads”, Journal of Finance 50, 789-819.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D., 2000, “On Default Correlation: a Copula Approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, 9, 43-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Longstaff, F. A. and Schwartz, E. S., 1995, “A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt”, Journal of Finance, 50, 789-819.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mella-Barral, P. and Perraudin, W., 1997, “Strategic Debt Service”, Journal of Financezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 52, 531-566.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R., 1974, “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: the Risk Structure of Interestzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rates”, Journal of Finance 29, 449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Neugebauer, M., 2006, “Understanding and Hedging Risks in Synthetic CDO Tranches”, Fitch Ratings,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nielsen, L. T., Jesus Saà-Requejo, and Pedro Santa-Clara, 1993, “Default Risk andzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Interest Rate Risk: The Term Structure of Default Spreads”, Working Paper, INSEAD.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schönbucher, P. J. and Schubert, D., 2001, “Copula-Dependent Default Risk in Intensityzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Models”, Working Paper, Department of Statistics, Bonn University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sklar, A., 1959, “Fonctions de Repartition a n Dimensions et leurs Marges”, Publ. Inst.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stat. Univ. Paris 8, 229-231.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zhou, C., 1997, “A Jump-Diffusion Approach to Modelling Credit Risk and Valuingzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Defaultable Securities”, Federal Reserve Board, Washington.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zhou, C., 2001, “The Term Structure of Credit Spreads with Jump Risk”,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of Banking & Finance 25, 2015-2040.zh_TW