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題名 稅制改革之可計算一般均衡分析-Ramsey與Overlapping Generation model 之比較
The Effect of Tax Reform in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework - Ramsey vs. Overlapping Generation Model
作者 廖如敏
貢獻者 朱雲鵬
廖如敏
關鍵詞 稅制改革
動態可計算一般均衡模型
跨代模型
Overlapping Generation模型
Ramsey模型
Tax reform
Dynamic CGE
Overlapping Generation model
Ramsey model
日期 2005
上傳時間 19-Sep-2009 13:46:07 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究利用台灣2001年資料以Ramsey與OLG假設分別建立區分四部門別與八部門別之動態可計算一般均衡模型，進行「提高間接稅（消費稅、環境稅）、降低直接稅（資本、勞動所得稅）」之稅制改革模擬分析。結果發現若以單一時點比較靜態方式分析可能迥異於動態長期分析結果；其次以Ramsey分析所欠缺的代際分配影響結果在OLG分析中可以察見，特別是進行以消費稅或環境稅替代資本所得稅模擬時；再者OLG因代際傳遞效果可能較Ramsey假設下反應緩慢，故也可觀察到Ramsey模型面對衝擊後若干變數增減幅度會較OLG模型陡峭。最後特別在環境稅替代所得稅模擬中經由替代稅率變化發現，活在初期世代雖可享受所得稅下降好處但卻也面臨排放稅課徵，因此福利水準增減變化不大，惟屆至排放稅課徵瀕至臨界點需使用原所得稅來平衡稅收時，此為另一波必須為減量政策付出代價的時點與世代。
Based on a thorough comparison of the basic assumptions and economic underpinning of the Ramsey and Overlapping generation (OLG) model, this study builds both static and dynamic computable general equilibrium tax policy models to analyze the effect of tax reform on Taiwan’s economy. The new tax structure considers mainly a replacement of some parts of direct tax - labor and capital income taxes by indirect tax- consumption tax or environment tax. The benchmark year of the model is 2001, and the economy is divided into four and eight sectors. The modeling framework is implemented on top of MPSGE, which is a special module within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS).Our simulation results show differential outcomes for static and dynamic models. The slower speed of transition inherent in OLG model has caused variables such as welfare, capital stock, and replacement consumption tax rate change less than that in the Ramsey model when the tax reform policy is imposed. And the intergeneration effects of different tax burden between young and old generations can be found in the OLG model but not in the Ramsey model. Finally, we find as the income tax rate coming lower and the environment tax going up when simulation of tax replacement, causing the welfare does not change much at the beginning of shock, and generations especially born in the near future when environment tax does not grow and revenue neutrality needs to be meet are another cost payers of abatement policy.
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
86255501
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0086255501
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 朱雲鵬zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 廖如敏zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 廖如敏zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 19-Sep-2009 13:46:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 19-Sep-2009 13:46:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 19-Sep-2009 13:46:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0086255501en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37419-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 86255501zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究利用台灣2001年資料以Ramsey與OLG假設分別建立區分四部門別與八部門別之動態可計算一般均衡模型，進行「提高間接稅（消費稅、環境稅）、降低直接稅（資本、勞動所得稅）」之稅制改革模擬分析。結果發現若以單一時點比較靜態方式分析可能迥異於動態長期分析結果；其次以Ramsey分析所欠缺的代際分配影響結果在OLG分析中可以察見，特別是進行以消費稅或環境稅替代資本所得稅模擬時；再者OLG因代際傳遞效果可能較Ramsey假設下反應緩慢，故也可觀察到Ramsey模型面對衝擊後若干變數增減幅度會較OLG模型陡峭。最後特別在環境稅替代所得稅模擬中經由替代稅率變化發現，活在初期世代雖可享受所得稅下降好處但卻也面臨排放稅課徵，因此福利水準增減變化不大，惟屆至排放稅課徵瀕至臨界點需使用原所得稅來平衡稅收時，此為另一波必須為減量政策付出代價的時點與世代。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Based on a thorough comparison of the basic assumptions and economic underpinning of the Ramsey and Overlapping generation (OLG) model, this study builds both static and dynamic computable general equilibrium tax policy models to analyze the effect of tax reform on Taiwan’s economy. The new tax structure considers mainly a replacement of some parts of direct tax - labor and capital income taxes by indirect tax- consumption tax or environment tax. The benchmark year of the model is 2001, and the economy is divided into four and eight sectors. The modeling framework is implemented on top of MPSGE, which is a special module within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS).Our simulation results show differential outcomes for static and dynamic models. The slower speed of transition inherent in OLG model has caused variables such as welfare, capital stock, and replacement consumption tax rate change less than that in the Ramsey model when the tax reform policy is imposed. And the intergeneration effects of different tax burden between young and old generations can be found in the OLG model but not in the Ramsey model. Finally, we find as the income tax rate coming lower and the environment tax going up when simulation of tax replacement, causing the welfare does not change much at the beginning of shock, and generations especially born in the near future when environment tax does not grow and revenue neutrality needs to be meet are another cost payers of abatement policy.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 5
1-1前言與背景說明 5
1-1-1 稅制改革緣起 5
1-1-2 稅制改革學理依據 7
1-2 研究動機與目的 8
1-2 研究動機與目的 9
1-3研究方法 12
1-3-1 CGE、MPSGE與GAMS的結合 12
1-3-2 動態模型分析種類 13
1-4 研究步驟與流程 15
第二章 文獻回顧 18
2-1 動態一般均衡模型分析文獻 18
2-1-1有限期動態一般均衡模型 18
2-1-2無限期動態一般均衡模型 19
2-1-3利用動態一般均衡分析之文獻 20
2-2 稅制改革理論與文獻回顧 21
2-2-1消費稅（均一稅）替代所得稅 21
2-2-2環境稅改革的理論與文獻 32
2-2-3文獻回顧綜合比較整理 41
第三章 RAMSEY與OLG模型 43
3-1 Ramsey Model 43
3-1-1 簡單Ramsey Model(基期為steady-state) 43
3-1-2 終極狀態（terminal condition）條件要求 46
3-1-3 Ramsey模型之校準程序（calibration） 47
3-2 OLG Model 49
3-2-1 簡單OLG Model的建構 49
3-2-2 簡單OLG Model動態均衡條件 51
3-2-3 OLG與動態不效率（dynamic inefficiency） 52
3-2-4 OLG與李嘉圖等值定理 54
3-3 Ramsey 與OLG 模型綜合比較 56
第四章 消費稅替代所得稅未區分部門別模擬分析 58
4-1 資料處理說明 58
4-1-1 2001年社會會計矩陣（SAM)編製 58
4-2 方程式說明 61
4-2-1 OLG模型方程式解說 61
4-2-2 Ramsey模型方程式解說 64
4-3 模擬結果 66
4-3-1 比較靜態模擬結果 66
4-3-2 Ramsey模型模擬結果 67
4-3-3 OLG模型模擬結果 69
第五章 消費稅替代所得稅區分四部門別模擬分析 72
5-1 資料處理說明 72
5-1-1 2001年四部門SAM 72
5-2 方程式說明 75
5-2-1 OLG、Ramsey模型方程式解說 75
5-3 模擬結果 78
5-3-1 比較靜態模擬結果 78
5-3-2 Ramsey模型模擬結果 79
5-3-3 OLG模型模擬結果 82
5-3-4 模擬結果比較 85
第六章 環境稅制改革模擬分析 87
6-1 資料處理說明 87
6-1-1 2001年八部門SAM 87
6-2方程式說明 92
6-3 模擬說明與結果 96
6-3-1模擬方案說明 96
6-3-2 排放數量與排放價格模擬結果 98
6-3-3 OLG模型模擬結果 99
6-3-4 Ramsey模型模擬結果 103
6-3-5 比較結論 108
第七章 結論與建議 110

參考文獻 114

附錄- MPSGE介紹 119
附錄1-1-1 簡介 119
附錄1-1-2 MCP（Mixed Complimentary Problem）與一般均衡 119
附錄1-1-3 MPSGE的語法-以靜態模型為例 124
附錄1-1-4 MPSGE對生產、效用偏好函數語法表示 126
附錄1-1-5 利用MPSGE建立一般動態均衡模型 128

圖表目錄
表1-1 無窮期的動態模型類型 13
表2-1 使用Ramsey模型分析租稅改革議題文獻 31
表2-2 使用OLG模型分析分析租稅改革議題文獻 31
表2-3 使用Ramsey模型分析環境稅議題的文獻 40
表2-4 使用OLG模型分析環境稅議題的文獻 40
表2-5 使用Ramsey與OLG模型分析 租稅改革議題文獻歸納整理表 41
表2-6 使用Ramsey與OLG模型分析 環境稅議題文獻歸納整理表 42
表3-1 Ramsey 與OLG 模型比較 57
表4-1 2001年台灣社會會計矩陣(SAM)表 59
表4-2 未區分部門、比較靜態分析（相較基期變動％） 66
表5-1四部門與IO表49部門對照 73
表5-2台灣 2001年四部門SAM 74
表5-3 以消費稅替代勞動所得稅 (較基期變化%) 78
表5-4 以消費稅替代資本所得稅 (較基期變化%) 78
表6-2 區分部門別CGE模型產業對照表 89
表6-3 部門別二氧化碳排放係數 97
表6-4 兩動態模型模擬環境稅替代所得稅比較整理 109

圖1-1 稅制改革訴求示意 8
圖1-2 ”提高間接稅、降低直接稅”研究步驟與比較區隔 16
圖1-3 研究流程示意 17
圖4-1 Ramsey模型模擬後福利效果變化 67
圖4-2 Ramsey模型模擬後資本存量與勞動供給變化 67
圖4-3 Ramsey模型模擬後產出水準變化 68
圖4-4 Ramsey模型模擬後消費稅替代稅率變化 68
圖4-5 OLG模型的生產、消費與休閒之時間配置 69
圖4-6 OLG 模型各類所得發生時間圖 69
圖4-7 OLG 模型模擬後資本存量與勞動供給變化 70
圖4-8 OLG 模型模擬後產出水準變化 70
圖4-9 OLG 模型模擬後福利效果變化 71
圖4-10 OLG 模型模擬後消費稅率替代變化 71
圖5-1四部門Ramsey模型消費稅替代所得稅福利效果變化 79
圖5-2四部門Ramsey模型消費稅替代所得稅資本存量變化 79
圖5-3四部門Ramsey模型減少資本所得稅後勞動供給變化 80
圖5-4四部門Ramsey模型減少勞動所得稅後勞動供給變化 80
圖5-5四部門Ramsey模型減少資本、勞動所得稅以消費稅替代變化 81
圖5-6四部門OLG模型消費稅替代所得稅福利效果變化 82
圖5-7四部門OLG模型消費稅替代所得稅後資本存量變化 82
圖5-8四部門OLG模型減少資本所得稅後勞動供給變化 83
圖5-9四部門OLG模型減少勞動所得稅後勞動供給變化 83
圖5-10四部門OLG模型減少資本、勞動所得稅以消費稅替代變化 84
圖6-1 生產與最終需求的能源複合財貨結構關係與彈性值 91
圖6-2 家計需求的結構關係與彈性值 92
圖6-2 生產部門產出結構關係 94
圖6-3 商品貿易類的結構關係與轉換彈性值 95
圖6-4 二氧化碳排放基線與模擬減量排放線 98
圖6-5 二氧化碳排放價格 98
圖6-6八部門OLG以排放稅代替資本所得稅效用水準變化 99
圖6-7八部門OLG以排放稅代替資本所得稅稅率變化 99
圖6-8八部門OLG以排放稅代替資本所得稅相關價格變化 100
圖6-9八部門OLG以排放稅代替資本所得稅相關數量變化 100
圖6-10八部門OLG以排放稅代替勞動所得稅效用水準變化 101
圖6-11八部門OLG以排放稅代替勞動所得稅稅率變化 101
圖6-12八部門OLG以排放稅代替勞動所得稅相關價格變化 102
圖6-13八部門OLG以排放稅代替勞動所得稅相關數量變化 102
圖6-14八部門Ramsey以排放稅代替資本所得稅效用水準變化 103
圖6-15八部門Ramsey以排放稅代替資本所得稅稅率變化 104
圖6-16八部門Ramsey以排放稅替代資本所得稅相關價格變化 104
圖6-17八部門Ramsey以排放稅替代資本所得稅相關數量變化 105
圖6-18八部門Ramsey以排放稅代替勞動所得稅效用水準變化 106
圖6-19八部門Ramsey以排放稅代替勞動所得稅稅率變化 106
圖6-20八部門Ramsey以排放稅代替勞動所得稅相關價格變化 107
圖6-21八部門Ramsey以排放稅代替勞動所得稅相關數量變化 107		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0086255501en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 稅制改革zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態可計算一般均衡模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 跨代模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Overlapping Generation模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ramsey模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tax reformen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic CGEen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Overlapping Generation modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ramsey modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 稅制改革之可計算一般均衡分析-Ramsey與Overlapping Generation model 之比較zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Effect of Tax Reform in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework - Ramsey vs. Overlapping Generation Modelen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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