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題名 後社會主義國家金融自由化之政治經濟分析，以波蘭、愛沙尼亞及烏克蘭為例
作者 李明修
貢獻者 何思因
李明修
關鍵詞 波蘭、愛沙尼亞、烏克蘭、金融自由化、兩級銀行體系、後社會主義國家、歐盟、中東歐、波羅的海、獨立國協
日期 2004
上傳時間 19-Sep-2009 15:41:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文採用制度途徑為分析工具，比較歐洲地區的後社會主義國家在金融自由化的過程中，國內外不同的政治力量如何運作。從政治背景和金融發展兩個層面來看，後社會主義國家可以區分為三類：中東歐、波羅的海及獨立國協，因為資料和能力所及的緣故，本文選擇了波蘭、愛沙尼亞與烏克蘭作為比較的個案。

任何形式的改革皆會有阻力與助力，而在金融自由化之前需先做到經濟穩定化和國營部門私有化，這就要國內的既得利益階級犧牲部分利益，才能讓改革繼續下去，既得利益階級不甘利益受損，於是團結起來抵制改革，或對國會遊說、施壓，或藉由選舉進入國會、掌握國家機器，保持舊制度；此時，西方國際組織(歐盟、國際貨幣基金、世界銀行、歐洲復興與開發銀行等)扮演著改革助力角色，利用貸款、加入國際組織條件從外部制度協助後社會主義國家維繫改革動能和抗拒既得利益階級。

本文研究發現，朝野主要政黨能夠遵照新制度而行的國家，往往是經濟改革和金融自由化較為優異的國家，這些國家的既得利益階級和國內對立情況相當較弱者，又有加入歐盟的改革誘因，才能順利推動改革，如波蘭及愛沙尼亞；烏克蘭陷於東西對立，既得利益階級強盛，國會屢屢修改制度，造成金融自由化落後。結論是制度和行為者都很重要，行為者制訂制度，制度提供行為者遊戲規則，行為者要遵守制度而行。
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□□□□□□ 論文
周志杰，1995，後共產主義時期波蘭政治發展之研究(1989-1995)，淡江大學歐洲研究所。
網頁□ http://www.boca.gov.tw/~boca3007/trav/poland.htm
www.cia.gov
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
政治研究所
90252005
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902520051
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 何思因zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李明修zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李明修zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 19-Sep-2009 15:41:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 19-Sep-2009 15:41:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 19-Sep-2009 15:41:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0902520051en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34517-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 政治研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 90252005zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文採用制度途徑為分析工具，比較歐洲地區的後社會主義國家在金融自由化的過程中，國內外不同的政治力量如何運作。從政治背景和金融發展兩個層面來看，後社會主義國家可以區分為三類：中東歐、波羅的海及獨立國協，因為資料和能力所及的緣故，本文選擇了波蘭、愛沙尼亞與烏克蘭作為比較的個案。

任何形式的改革皆會有阻力與助力，而在金融自由化之前需先做到經濟穩定化和國營部門私有化，這就要國內的既得利益階級犧牲部分利益，才能讓改革繼續下去，既得利益階級不甘利益受損，於是團結起來抵制改革，或對國會遊說、施壓，或藉由選舉進入國會、掌握國家機器，保持舊制度；此時，西方國際組織(歐盟、國際貨幣基金、世界銀行、歐洲復興與開發銀行等)扮演著改革助力角色，利用貸款、加入國際組織條件從外部制度協助後社會主義國家維繫改革動能和抗拒既得利益階級。

本文研究發現，朝野主要政黨能夠遵照新制度而行的國家，往往是經濟改革和金融自由化較為優異的國家，這些國家的既得利益階級和國內對立情況相當較弱者，又有加入歐盟的改革誘因，才能順利推動改革，如波蘭及愛沙尼亞；烏克蘭陷於東西對立，既得利益階級強盛，國會屢屢修改制度，造成金融自由化落後。結論是制度和行為者都很重要，行為者制訂制度，制度提供行為者遊戲規則，行為者要遵守制度而行。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
前言 1
第一節 研究目的 4
第二節 文獻檢閱 7
第三節 主要論點與章節安排 12
第二章 波蘭金融自由化的政治經濟分析 20
第一節 波蘭金融自由化的政治背景 20
圓桌會議與1989年國會大選 20
1990年總統大選與1991、1993年國會大選 22
1995年總統大選與1997年國會大選 24
第二節 總體經濟與貨幣穩定化措施 26
經濟自由化 26
經濟穩定化 28
貨幣改革方案 32
第三節 國營企業的金融重建與私有化 33
□國營企業的金融重建 33
國營企業的私有化(1989-迄今) 34
第四節 國營銀行的金融重建與私有化 38
轉型前的銀行體系(1945-1989) 39
國營銀行的金融重建-金融重建方案(1992-1996.2) 41
國營銀行的私有化(1991-迄今) 44
民營銀行與外資銀行 52
第五節 中央銀行、資本市場與貨幣市場發展 55
□丰◆□璅丹熆鉣□ 56
資本市場發展 58
貨幣市場發展 61
第六節 小結 62
第三章 愛沙尼亞金融自由化的政治經濟分析 65
第一節 愛沙尼亞金融自由化的政治背景 65
ISAMMA聯合政府(1992.9-1995.3) 66
KWU聯合政府(1995.3-1999.3) 67
公民權問題 70
第二節 總體經濟與貨幣穩定化措施 73
經濟自由化 73
經濟穩定化 75
貨幣改革方案-通貨委員會制度 76
第三節 國營企業的金融重建與私有化 80
□國營企業的金融重建(1991-1998) 80
國營企業的私有化(1987-1998) 81
第四節 國營銀行的金融重建與私有化 85
轉型前的銀行體系(1945-1991) 86
國營銀行的金融重建 (1991.8-1997) 88
銀行危機(1992.11.17-1993.2.8、1994.3-1994.9.26) 90
國營銀行的私有化(1992-迄今) 94
外資銀行與商業銀行 96
第五節 中央銀行、資本市場與貨幣市場發展 99
□丰◆□瘚o展 99
資本市場發展 101
貨幣市場發展 103
第六節 小結 104
第四章 烏克蘭金融自由化的政治經濟分析 107
第一節 烏克蘭金融自由化的政治背景 107
烏克蘭的地域政治 107
1994年的總統與國會大選 109
權力法、憲法協議與左派分裂 110
新憲法的制訂(1996.6.28) 111
派閥資本家(CLAN CAPITALISTS) 115
第二節 總體經濟與貨幣穩定化措施 116
經濟自由化 116
經濟穩定化 121
貨幣改革方案 123
第三節 國營企業的金融重建與私有化 126
□國營企業的金融重建 126
國營企業的私有化(1992-迄今) 128
第四節 國營銀行的金融重建與私有化 131
轉型前的銀行體系(1945-1991) 132
國營銀行的金融重建與KARTOTEKA2制度 (1991-1999) 133
國營銀行的私有化(1992-迄今) 138
第五節 中央銀行、資本市場與貨幣市場發展 141
□丰◆□璅丹熆鉣□ 141
資本市場發展 144
貨幣市場發展 146
第六節 小結 148

第五章 結論 151
參考文獻



















圖 次
圖 1-1：研究架構 15
圖 1-2：行為者交互作用的改革階段圖 16
圖 2-1：波蘭歷年通膨率(1987-2003) 31
圖 2-2：波蘭國營銀行私有化程序 45
圖 2-3：1989年後的波蘭金融體系架構 47
圖 2-4：波蘭國營銀行與民營銀行資產分佈(1995年底) 49
圖 3-1：愛沙尼亞歷年通膨率(1990－2003) 76
圖 3-2：愛沙尼亞歷年貿易赤字(1994－1997) 79
圖 3-3：愛沙尼亞專業銀行體系發展(1989.12-1992.1.1) 87
圖 4-1：烏克蘭歷年通膨率(1990-2003) 118
圖 5-1：波蘭政黨勢力消長(1993-1997) 155
圖 5-2：波蘭金融自由化進程 156
圖 5-3：愛沙尼亞政黨勢力消長(1992-2003) 157
圖 5-4：愛沙尼亞金融自由化進程 158
圖 5-5：烏克蘭政黨勢力消長(1994-2002) 159
圖 5-6：烏克蘭金融自由化進程 160



表 次
表 2-1：波蘭半自由國會選舉結果(1989年) 22
表 2-2：波蘭歷屆國會大選結果(1991、1993、1997) 25
表 2-3：波蘭私部門的成長(1988.12-2000年底) 38
表 2-4：波蘭五大國營專業銀行(1945-1989) 40
表 2-5：波蘭銀行資產分佈(1991-1993) 46
表 2-6：波蘭國營銀行私有化時程與方式 51
表 2-7：波蘭的合作銀行(1993-2001) 52
表 2-8：波蘭的商業銀行數(1988-1995.7) 53
表 2-9：波蘭國營與民營銀行的消長(1993-1997) 53
表 2-10：證券佔波蘭商業銀行總資產比(1991.12-1994.12) 59
表 2-11：波蘭財政狀況(1980-1993) 60
表 2-12：波蘭金融自由化大事紀 64
表 3-1：愛沙尼亞國會大選結果(1992.9.20、1995.3、1999.3、2003.3) 72
表 3-2：愛沙尼亞私部門比重(1990-1994) 83
表 3-3：愛沙尼亞大、小私有化進度(1991-1998) 84
表 3-4：愛沙尼亞銀行集中化(Consolidation)(1990-1998) 96
表 3-5：愛沙尼亞的銀行資本額(1993.1-1997.4) 98
表 3-6：愛沙尼亞的銀行增長情形(1992-1999) 98
表 3-7：愛沙尼亞外債占國民生產毛額比率(1992-1998) 100
表 3-8：愛沙尼亞金融自由化大事紀 106
表 4-1：烏克蘭主要政黨在政策上的分歧 109
表 4-2：烏克蘭四種新憲版本比較 112
表 4-3：烏克蘭新憲投票結果(1996.6.28) 113
表 4-4：烏克蘭國會大選結果(1994、1998、2002) 114
表 4-5：烏克蘭法定出口外匯出售比率(1992-1994.10) 119
表 4-6：烏克蘭銀行體系外幣流量／M2 125
表 4-7：烏克蘭國家預算赤字與預算通過日期(1992-1998) 136
表 4-8：烏克蘭銀行成長情形(1991-2002) 139
表 4-9：烏克蘭商業銀行資本額(1992.5-1994) 140
表 4-10：烏克蘭國庫券收益(1995-1998.8) 146
表 4-11：烏克蘭預算赤字融資途徑比率(1995-1999) 147
表 4-12：烏克蘭金融自由化大事紀 150
表 5-1：波蘭、愛沙尼亞及烏克蘭金融自由化綜合比較表 162		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902520051en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 波蘭、愛沙尼亞、烏克蘭、金融自由化、兩級銀行體系、後社會主義國家、歐盟、中東歐、波羅的海、獨立國協zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 後社會主義國家金融自由化之政治經濟分析，以波蘭、愛沙尼亞及烏克蘭為例zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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