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題名 定期總體經濟數據發佈對台灣債市之影響
The impact of scheduled macroeconomic announcements on Taiwan’s bond market
作者 陳明玉
貢獻者 曾巨威
陳明玉
關鍵詞 總體經濟數據發佈
市場微結構
Macroeconomic Announcements
market microstructure
日期 2006
上傳時間 9-Apr-2010 18:11:13 (UTC+8)
摘要 由於亞洲金融風暴源於資產價格崩盤,引發系統性風險,影響經濟穩定發展,各國央行開始正視資產價格變動所傳達之訊息,各個金融市場之資產價格也可能反映出投資人對物價之預期及經濟成長或衰退的訊息,似乎可作為央行執行貨幣政策指標或預測未來經濟發展之參考依據。
     本研究利用Ederington and Lee(1993)模型,以台灣公債日資料(01/04/2001~12/29/2006)及日內資料(08/31/2005~12/20/2006)檢視經濟數據發佈對台灣十年期公債影響。以日資料實證結果發現僅經濟成長率及海關進出口貿易發佈對公債報酬率波動有較顯著衝擊;日內資料實證結果僅CPI-WPI及景氣對策訊號有顯著影響。台灣經濟數據發佈效果不如國外債券市場來的明顯,使得國內債券市場投資人反而尋求其他私人訊息納入交易策略考慮。
參考文獻 詹德松編(1997)。經濟統計指標-兼述政府統計實務。台北市:華泰。
Admati, A. R., and P. Pfleiderer(1988), A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability, The Review of Financial Studies, 1(1),3-40
Balduzzi,P., E.J.Elton, and T.C.Green (2001), Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 36, 523-543.
Black, F (1986), Noise, The Journal of Finance, 41(3), 529-543.
Bollerslev, T., J. Cai, and F. M. Song(2000), Intraday Periodicity, Long Memory Volatility, and Macroeconomic Announcement Effect in The US Treasury Bond Market, Journal of Empirical Finance, 7, 37-55.
Brown, M. B. and A. B. Forsythe(1974), Robust Test for the Equality of Variances, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(365), 364-367.
Bugkle,M., O.ap Gwilym,S.H.Thomas and M.S.Woodhams (1998), Intraday Empirical Regularities in Interest Rate and Equity Index Futures Markets, and the Effect of Macroeconomic Announcements, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 25, 921-944.
Christie-David, R., M. Chaudhry, and W. Khan(2002), News Releases, Market Intergration, and Market Leadership, The Journal of Financial Research, 25(2), 223-245.
DeGoeij, P.C. and W. Marquering (2003), Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymmetric Volatility, working paper, Tilburg University.
Ederington,L.H.and J.H.Lee (1993), How markets Process information: News Releases and Volatility, Journal of Finance, 48, 1161-1191.
55
Ederington,L.H.and J.H.Lee (1995), The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30(1), 117-134.
Fama, E. F. (1970), Efficient Capital Markets: a Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.
Fama, E. F. (1991), Efficient Capital markets II, Journal of Finance, 46, 1575-1643.
French,K.R., and R.Roll (1986), Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of information and the Reaction of Traders, Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 5-26.
Harvey, C. and R.Hung(1991), Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market, Review of Financial Studies, 4, 543-569
Harvey, C. and R. Hung(1993), Public Information and Fixed Income Volatility, Working Paper, Duke University.
Hess, D. E.(2000), Surprises in Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements: Why do They Move the Bond Market, ZEW Discussion Paper00-61, ZEW.
Kim, S.J. and L. Kow (2004), The Role of Public Information in Japan: Effects of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements of the Foreign Exchange, Debt, and Stock Markets, Working Paper, The University of New South Wales.
Madhavan, A. (2000), Market Microstructure: A Survey, Journal of Financial Markets, 3, 205-258.
Madhavan, A.(2002), Market Microstructure: A Practitioner’s Guide, Financial Analysts Journal, 58(5), 28-42.
Mahoney, P.G.(2003), Market Microstructure and Market Efficiency, Journal of Corporation Law, 28(4), 541-549.
Monticini, A. and G. Vaciago(2005), Are Eurpoe’s Interest Rates led by FED Announcements, Working Paper, University of Exeter.
Simpson, M.W. and S. Ramchander (2004), An Examination of The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Spot and Futures Treasuries Markets, The Journal of Futures Markets, 24(5), 453-478.
Wang, C.(2002), Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility, The Financial Review, 37, 295-316.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
92921050
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0929210501
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 曾巨威zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳明玉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳明玉zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Apr-2010 18:11:13 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Apr-2010 18:11:13 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Apr-2010 18:11:13 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0929210501en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/38820-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92921050zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 由於亞洲金融風暴源於資產價格崩盤,引發系統性風險,影響經濟穩定發展,各國央行開始正視資產價格變動所傳達之訊息,各個金融市場之資產價格也可能反映出投資人對物價之預期及經濟成長或衰退的訊息,似乎可作為央行執行貨幣政策指標或預測未來經濟發展之參考依據。
     本研究利用Ederington and Lee(1993)模型,以台灣公債日資料(01/04/2001~12/29/2006)及日內資料(08/31/2005~12/20/2006)檢視經濟數據發佈對台灣十年期公債影響。以日資料實證結果發現僅經濟成長率及海關進出口貿易發佈對公債報酬率波動有較顯著衝擊;日內資料實證結果僅CPI-WPI及景氣對策訊號有顯著影響。台灣經濟數據發佈效果不如國外債券市場來的明顯,使得國內債券市場投資人反而尋求其他私人訊息納入交易策略考慮。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     第一節 研究背景與動機 1
     第二節 研究方法與架構 5
     第三節 研究限制 7
     第四節 章節安排 8
     第二章 文獻回顧 9
     第一節 有關金融資產價格形成之研究 9
     第二節 有關利率或價格波動之研究 10
     第三節 有關消息發佈對價格影響之研究 12
     第三章 本國債券市場結構 15
     第一節 本國政府公債發行市場現況 18
     第二節 本國政府公債流通市場現況 22
     第三節 參與者 29
     第四章 實證研究模型 32
     第一節 模型介紹 32
     第二節 資料說明 36
     第五章 實證結果分析 40
     第一節 結果說明 40
     第二節 結果分析 50
     第六章 結論 53
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0929210501en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總體經濟數據發佈zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場微結構zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Macroeconomic Announcementsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) market microstructureen_US
dc.title (題名) 定期總體經濟數據發佈對台灣債市之影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The impact of scheduled macroeconomic announcements on Taiwan’s bond marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 詹德松編(1997)。經濟統計指標-兼述政府統計實務。台北市:華泰。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Admati, A. R., and P. Pfleiderer(1988), A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability, The Review of Financial Studies, 1(1),3-40zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Balduzzi,P., E.J.Elton, and T.C.Green (2001), Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 36, 523-543.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F (1986), Noise, The Journal of Finance, 41(3), 529-543.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bollerslev, T., J. Cai, and F. M. Song(2000), Intraday Periodicity, Long Memory Volatility, and Macroeconomic Announcement Effect in The US Treasury Bond Market, Journal of Empirical Finance, 7, 37-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brown, M. B. and A. B. Forsythe(1974), Robust Test for the Equality of Variances, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(365), 364-367.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bugkle,M., O.ap Gwilym,S.H.Thomas and M.S.Woodhams (1998), Intraday Empirical Regularities in Interest Rate and Equity Index Futures Markets, and the Effect of Macroeconomic Announcements, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 25, 921-944.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Christie-David, R., M. Chaudhry, and W. Khan(2002), News Releases, Market Intergration, and Market Leadership, The Journal of Financial Research, 25(2), 223-245.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) DeGoeij, P.C. and W. Marquering (2003), Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymmetric Volatility, working paper, Tilburg University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ederington,L.H.and J.H.Lee (1993), How markets Process information: News Releases and Volatility, Journal of Finance, 48, 1161-1191.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 55zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ederington,L.H.and J.H.Lee (1995), The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30(1), 117-134.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fama, E. F. (1970), Efficient Capital Markets: a Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fama, E. F. (1991), Efficient Capital markets II, Journal of Finance, 46, 1575-1643.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) French,K.R., and R.Roll (1986), Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of information and the Reaction of Traders, Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 5-26.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Harvey, C. and R.Hung(1991), Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market, Review of Financial Studies, 4, 543-569zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Harvey, C. and R. Hung(1993), Public Information and Fixed Income Volatility, Working Paper, Duke University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hess, D. E.(2000), Surprises in Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements: Why do They Move the Bond Market, ZEW Discussion Paper00-61, ZEW.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kim, S.J. and L. Kow (2004), The Role of Public Information in Japan: Effects of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements of the Foreign Exchange, Debt, and Stock Markets, Working Paper, The University of New South Wales.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Madhavan, A. (2000), Market Microstructure: A Survey, Journal of Financial Markets, 3, 205-258.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Madhavan, A.(2002), Market Microstructure: A Practitioner’s Guide, Financial Analysts Journal, 58(5), 28-42.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mahoney, P.G.(2003), Market Microstructure and Market Efficiency, Journal of Corporation Law, 28(4), 541-549.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Monticini, A. and G. Vaciago(2005), Are Eurpoe’s Interest Rates led by FED Announcements, Working Paper, University of Exeter.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Simpson, M.W. and S. Ramchander (2004), An Examination of The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Spot and Futures Treasuries Markets, The Journal of Futures Markets, 24(5), 453-478.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wang, C.(2002), Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility, The Financial Review, 37, 295-316.zh_TW