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題名 投資人情緒與分析師行為關聯性之研究
Investor Sentiment and Analyst Behavior
作者 張淑慧
Chang, Shu Hui
貢獻者 金成隆
張淑慧
Chang, Shu Hui
關鍵詞 投資人情緒
分析師行為
預測期間指標
Investor sentiment
Analyst Behavior
Forecast Period Indicators
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 01:52:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究旨在探討投資人情緒是否影響到分析師的報導決策,以及分析師發佈預測和推薦時是否會注意到投資人情緒,亦即當投資人情緒較樂觀時,分析師是否會發佈較長期的預測以及較有利的股票推薦。本文以中央大學台灣經濟研究中心所編制之消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒的替代變數。研究結果與本文預期相符,當投資人情緒較高昂時,分析師會發佈較長期之盈餘預測以及較有利之推薦評等;同時也發現當投資人情緒上升,分析師之推薦評等亦向上修正。顯示分析師雖為專精且較為理性之投資人,然其行為仍受到消費者信心所影響。
This study investigates the relation between investor sentiment and analysts` coverage decisions. Secondly, we also examine whether analysts who pay attention to investor sentiment issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and more favorable stock recommendations during high-sentiment periods. We use the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey from the National Central University to measure sentiment. We find that analysts tend to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and favorable stock recommendations when investor sentiment is more optimistic. Moreover, analysts tend to revise upward their stock recommendations during investor sentiment raise period. Taken together, these findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment even though they are more rational investors.
參考文獻 中文部份:
邱淑珍,1997,股票公開推薦資訊有效性之實證研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文。
陳若菁,1996,會計資訊與分析師推薦股票之研究,國立台灣大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
陳苑菱,2009,消費者投資情緒與股價關聯性:VAR模型之應用,世新大學財務金融學研究所未出版碩士論文。
郭迺鋒、劉名寰、蔡獻逸、林筱寧及鄭如君,2008,臺灣民眾自我預期實現之實證分析貨幣觀測與信用評等,第72期:36-49。
張偉諒,2006,消費者信心指數與台灣股票市場相關性之研究,國立中央大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班未出版碩士論文。
黃伊苓,2009,散戶與投資機構之投資情緒探討,國立台北科技大學商業自動化與管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
羅文昌,2000,美國證券分析師推薦網際網路類股績效與影響因素之研究,台大國企系未出版碩士論文。
英文部份:
Bae, K. H., R. M. Stulz, and H. Tan. 2008. Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts. Journal of Financial Economics 88(June) : 581-606.
Bagnoli, M., M. Clement, M. Crawley, and S. Watts. 2009. The profitability of analysts’ stock recommendations: Is estimating intrinsic value all that matters? Working paper, Purdue University.
Baker, M., and J. Wurgler. 2006. Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock return. Journal of Finance 61: 1645-1680.
Barth, M. E., R. Kasznik, and M. F. McNichols. 2001. Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research 39 : 1-34.
Bauman, W. S., S. Datta, and M. E. Iskandar-Datta. 1995. Investment analyst recommendations: A test of the announcement effect and the valuable information effect. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 22 : 659-670.
Bergman, N., and S. Roychowdhury. 2008. Investor sentiment and corporate disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research 46 : 1057−1083.
Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 : 255-274.
Brennan, M., and P. Hughes. 1991. Stock prices and the supply of information. Journal of Finance 46 : 1665-1691.
Brown, G. W., and M. T. Cliff. 2004. Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance 11 : 1-17.
Bushman, R. M., J. D. Piotroski, and A. J. Smith. 2004. What determines corporate transparency? Journal of Accounting Research 42 : 207-252.
Chandy, P. R., J. W. Peavy, and W. Reichenstein. 1993. A note on the value line stock highlight effect. Journal of Financial Research 16 : 171-179.
Chin, C. L., and C. J. Lu. 2008. Determinants of analysts` forecasts horizons. Journal of Management, forthcoming.
Conrad, J., B. Cornell, W. R. Landsman, and B. R. Rountree. 2006. How do analyst recommendations respond to major news? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 41(March) : 25-49.
Das, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73(Apirl) : 277-294.
De Long, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. H. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann. 1990. Noise trader risk in financial markets. Journal of Political Economy 98(August) : 703-738.
Fama, E. F. 1970. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance 25(May) : 383-417.
Fisher, K. L., and M. Statman. 2002. Investor sentiment and stock returns. Financial Analysts Journal 56 : 16-23.
Francis, J., and D. Philbrick. 1993. Analysts’ decisions as products of a multi-task environment. Journal of Accounting Research 31 : 216-230.
Frankel, R., and C. M. C. Lee. 1998. Accounting valuation, market expectation and cross-sectional stock returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25(June) : 283-319.
Healy, P. M., A. P. Hutton, and K. G. Palepu. 1999. A stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 : 485–420.
Hope O. 2003. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts` forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 20 : 295-321.
Jegadeesh, N., J. Kim, S. D. Krische, and C. M. C. Lee. 2004. Analyzing the analysts: When do recommendations add value? Journal of Finance 59 : 1083-1124.
Kamara, A., T. W. Miller, and A. F. Siegel. 1992. The effect of futures trading on the stability of standard and poor 500 returns. Journal of Futures Markets 12 : 645-658.
Ke, B., and Y. Yu. 2009. Why don’t analysts use their earnings forecasts in generating stock recommendations? Working paper, Pennsylvania State University.
Kennedy, P. 1998. A guide to econometrics. Fourth Edition. Blackwell, Oxford.
Krische S. D., and C. M. C. Lee. 2000. The information content of analyst stock recommendations. Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University.
Lang, M. H., and R. J. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71(October) : 467-492.
Lemmon, M., and E. Portniaguina. 2006. Consumer confidence and asset prices: Some empirical evidence. Review of Financial Studies 19 : 1499-1529.
Liu, P., S. D. Smith, and A. A. Syed. 1990. Stock price reactions to the wall street journal`s securities recommendations. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 25(September) : 399-410.
Matsumoto, D. A. 2002. Management’s incentives to avoid negative earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 77(July) : 483-514.
McNichols, M., and P. C. O’Brien. 1997. Self-selection and analyst coverage. Journal of Accounting Research 35 : 167-199.
Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 1997. Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting Research 35 : 131-157.
Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 2009. Does investor sentiment affect sell-side analysts’ forecast accuracy? Working paper, Arizona State University, Kellogg School of Management, Vanderbilt University.
Moyer, R. C., R. E. Chatfield, and P. M. Sisneros. 1989. Security analyst monitoring activity: Agency costs and information demands. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24(December) : 503-512
Neal, R., and S. M. Wheatley. 1998. Do measures of investor sentiment predict returns? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 33 : 523-547.
Ohlson, J. A., and B. E. Juettner-Nauroth. 2005. Expected EPS and EPS growth as determinants of value. Review of Accounting Studies 10(July) : 349-365.
Peterson, D. R. 1995. The informative role of the value line investment survey: Evidence from stock highlights. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30 : 607-618.
Qiu, L., and I. Welch. 2006. Investor sentiment measures. Working paper. Brown University.
Rajan, R. G., and H. Servaes. 1997. Analyst following of initial public offerings. Journal of Finance 52 (June) : 507-529.
Ramnath, S., S. Rock, and P. Shane. 2008. The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research. International Journal of Forecasting 24 : 34-75.
Richardson S. A., S. H. Teoh, and P. D. Wysocki, 2004. The walk-down to beatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives. Contemporary Accounting Research 21 : 885–924.
Saunders, E. M. J. 1993. Stock prices and wall street weather. American Economic Review 83(December) : 1337-1345.
Schipper, K. 1991. Analysts’ forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5 : 107-121.
Stickel, S. E. 2007. Analyst incentives and the financial characteristics of wall street darling sand dogs. The Journal of Investing 16 : 23-32
Womack, K. L. 1996. Do brokerage analysts’ recommendations have investment value? Journal of Finance 51(March) : 137-167.
Wright, W. F., and G. H. Bower. 1992. Mood effects on subjective probability assessment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 52(July) : 276-291.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
97353016
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097353016
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 金成隆zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張淑慧zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Shu Huien_US
dc.creator (作者) 張淑慧zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Shu Huien_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 01:52:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 01:52:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 01:52:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097353016en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/48901-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97353016zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究旨在探討投資人情緒是否影響到分析師的報導決策,以及分析師發佈預測和推薦時是否會注意到投資人情緒,亦即當投資人情緒較樂觀時,分析師是否會發佈較長期的預測以及較有利的股票推薦。本文以中央大學台灣經濟研究中心所編制之消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒的替代變數。研究結果與本文預期相符,當投資人情緒較高昂時,分析師會發佈較長期之盈餘預測以及較有利之推薦評等;同時也發現當投資人情緒上升,分析師之推薦評等亦向上修正。顯示分析師雖為專精且較為理性之投資人,然其行為仍受到消費者信心所影響。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study investigates the relation between investor sentiment and analysts` coverage decisions. Secondly, we also examine whether analysts who pay attention to investor sentiment issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and more favorable stock recommendations during high-sentiment periods. We use the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey from the National Central University to measure sentiment. We find that analysts tend to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and favorable stock recommendations when investor sentiment is more optimistic. Moreover, analysts tend to revise upward their stock recommendations during investor sentiment raise period. Taken together, these findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment even though they are more rational investors.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題 4
第三節 研究架構 5
第貳章 文獻探討 6
第一節 投資人情緒 6
第二節 分析師行為 10
第三節 投資人情緒與分析師報導間之關係 12
第參章 研究設計 13
第一節 研究假說 13
第二節 研究方法 15
第三節 資料來源與選樣標準 24
第肆章 實證結果與分析 26
第一節 樣本特性 26
第二節 多變量分析結果 36
第伍章 進一步檢測與敏感性分析 42
第一節 進一步檢測 42
第二節 敏感性分析 53
第陸章 結論 63
第一節 結論 63
第二節 研究貢獻 65
第三節 研究限制與建議 66
參考文獻 67
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097353016en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資人情緒zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師行為zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測期間指標zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investor sentimenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Analyst Behavioren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecast Period Indicatorsen_US
dc.title (題名) 投資人情緒與分析師行為關聯性之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Investor Sentiment and Analyst Behavioren_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部份:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 邱淑珍,1997,股票公開推薦資訊有效性之實證研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳若菁,1996,會計資訊與分析師推薦股票之研究,國立台灣大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳苑菱,2009,消費者投資情緒與股價關聯性:VAR模型之應用,世新大學財務金融學研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 郭迺鋒、劉名寰、蔡獻逸、林筱寧及鄭如君,2008,臺灣民眾自我預期實現之實證分析貨幣觀測與信用評等,第72期:36-49。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張偉諒,2006,消費者信心指數與台灣股票市場相關性之研究,國立中央大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃伊苓,2009,散戶與投資機構之投資情緒探討,國立台北科技大學商業自動化與管理研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 羅文昌,2000,美國證券分析師推薦網際網路類股績效與影響因素之研究,台大國企系未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部份:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bae, K. H., R. M. Stulz, and H. Tan. 2008. Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts. Journal of Financial Economics 88(June) : 581-606.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bagnoli, M., M. Clement, M. Crawley, and S. Watts. 2009. The profitability of analysts’ stock recommendations: Is estimating intrinsic value all that matters? Working paper, Purdue University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Baker, M., and J. Wurgler. 2006. Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock return. Journal of Finance 61: 1645-1680.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barth, M. E., R. Kasznik, and M. F. McNichols. 2001. Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research 39 : 1-34.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bauman, W. S., S. Datta, and M. E. Iskandar-Datta. 1995. Investment analyst recommendations: A test of the announcement effect and the valuable information effect. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 22 : 659-670.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bergman, N., and S. Roychowdhury. 2008. Investor sentiment and corporate disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research 46 : 1057−1083.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 : 255-274.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brennan, M., and P. Hughes. 1991. Stock prices and the supply of information. Journal of Finance 46 : 1665-1691.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brown, G. W., and M. T. Cliff. 2004. Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance 11 : 1-17.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bushman, R. M., J. D. Piotroski, and A. J. Smith. 2004. What determines corporate transparency? Journal of Accounting Research 42 : 207-252.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chandy, P. R., J. W. Peavy, and W. Reichenstein. 1993. A note on the value line stock highlight effect. Journal of Financial Research 16 : 171-179.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chin, C. L., and C. J. Lu. 2008. Determinants of analysts` forecasts horizons. Journal of Management, forthcoming.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Conrad, J., B. Cornell, W. R. Landsman, and B. R. Rountree. 2006. How do analyst recommendations respond to major news? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 41(March) : 25-49.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Das, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73(Apirl) : 277-294.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) De Long, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. H. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann. 1990. Noise trader risk in financial markets. Journal of Political Economy 98(August) : 703-738.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fama, E. F. 1970. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance 25(May) : 383-417.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fisher, K. L., and M. Statman. 2002. Investor sentiment and stock returns. Financial Analysts Journal 56 : 16-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Francis, J., and D. Philbrick. 1993. Analysts’ decisions as products of a multi-task environment. Journal of Accounting Research 31 : 216-230.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Frankel, R., and C. M. C. Lee. 1998. Accounting valuation, market expectation and cross-sectional stock returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25(June) : 283-319.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Healy, P. M., A. P. Hutton, and K. G. Palepu. 1999. A stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 : 485–420.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hope O. 2003. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts` forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 20 : 295-321.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jegadeesh, N., J. Kim, S. D. Krische, and C. M. C. Lee. 2004. Analyzing the analysts: When do recommendations add value? Journal of Finance 59 : 1083-1124.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kamara, A., T. W. Miller, and A. F. Siegel. 1992. The effect of futures trading on the stability of standard and poor 500 returns. Journal of Futures Markets 12 : 645-658.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ke, B., and Y. Yu. 2009. Why don’t analysts use their earnings forecasts in generating stock recommendations? Working paper, Pennsylvania State University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kennedy, P. 1998. A guide to econometrics. Fourth Edition. Blackwell, Oxford.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Krische S. D., and C. M. C. Lee. 2000. The information content of analyst stock recommendations. Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lang, M. H., and R. J. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71(October) : 467-492.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lemmon, M., and E. Portniaguina. 2006. Consumer confidence and asset prices: Some empirical evidence. Review of Financial Studies 19 : 1499-1529.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Liu, P., S. D. Smith, and A. A. Syed. 1990. Stock price reactions to the wall street journal`s securities recommendations. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 25(September) : 399-410.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Matsumoto, D. A. 2002. Management’s incentives to avoid negative earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 77(July) : 483-514.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) McNichols, M., and P. C. O’Brien. 1997. Self-selection and analyst coverage. Journal of Accounting Research 35 : 167-199.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 1997. Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting Research 35 : 131-157.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 2009. Does investor sentiment affect sell-side analysts’ forecast accuracy? Working paper, Arizona State University, Kellogg School of Management, Vanderbilt University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moyer, R. C., R. E. Chatfield, and P. M. Sisneros. 1989. Security analyst monitoring activity: Agency costs and information demands. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24(December) : 503-512zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Neal, R., and S. M. Wheatley. 1998. Do measures of investor sentiment predict returns? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 33 : 523-547.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ohlson, J. A., and B. E. Juettner-Nauroth. 2005. Expected EPS and EPS growth as determinants of value. Review of Accounting Studies 10(July) : 349-365.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Peterson, D. R. 1995. The informative role of the value line investment survey: Evidence from stock highlights. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30 : 607-618.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Qiu, L., and I. Welch. 2006. Investor sentiment measures. Working paper. Brown University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rajan, R. G., and H. Servaes. 1997. Analyst following of initial public offerings. Journal of Finance 52 (June) : 507-529.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ramnath, S., S. Rock, and P. Shane. 2008. The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research. International Journal of Forecasting 24 : 34-75.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Richardson S. A., S. H. Teoh, and P. D. Wysocki, 2004. The walk-down to beatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives. Contemporary Accounting Research 21 : 885–924.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Saunders, E. M. J. 1993. Stock prices and wall street weather. American Economic Review 83(December) : 1337-1345.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schipper, K. 1991. Analysts’ forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5 : 107-121.zh_TW
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