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題名 太陽能產業上游太陽能等級多晶矽原料科技創業評估
A technology venture evaluation case study of solar grade silicon
作者 梁博傑
貢獻者 溫肇東<br>郭維裕
梁博傑
關鍵詞 多晶矽
Poly-silicon
日期 2008
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 01:53:30 (UTC+8)
摘要 近幾年再生能源的議題非常的熱門,各種再生能源產業的風力發電、太陽能電池、生質能、燃料電池等產業資料,相關創業與投資訊息不斷的傳播。各種科技看起來,好像都是明日之星。對於一個要準備創業的創業家,那一個產業那一個區間才是適合的機會?在投入創業前要透過何種有效的篩選工具才能選出適當的創業機會?
     本研究先從史考特‧夏恩(2005) 的科技創業聖經十個面向,再到創新者的解答與創新者的解答中的所提出的破壞性創新的觀念,先以質性研究的紮根理論探討檢視潛在創業產業及個案的可行性探討,對於經過第一階段質性研究考驗的個案,再以折價現金流量(Discount Cash-Flow)建立量化研究的財務模型,以求得資本內部報酬率(Equity Internal Return Ratio)及淨現金流量(Net Present Value)並以敏感性分析及情境分析探討財務可行性,期望找出一個創業機會能完全符合所有前訴的條件。本研究歷經三年的探討,檢視過數十個個案,包括風力發電、燃料電池、生質酒精、生質柴油、太陽能產業上中下游等創業機會,若要在台灣的環境創業又要提高創業成功機率,且又要能滿足創業團隊財務的報酬率的期望,能經過這麼多條件考驗的個案少之又少。
     本研究最後選定以太陽能產業最上游的多晶矽改良式冶金法做為創業探討的個
     案,最主要的原因是太陽能產業是屬於一種再生能源,有很大的機會成為長期高速成長的產業,且台灣因半導體產業及面板產業已為太陽能產業建立了基礎,多晶矽改良式冶金法又是一種破壞性創新,能提高創業成功的機會,且若在上游產業成功創業,能建立很高的進入障礙,對太陽能產業的發展佈局能具有策略性的地位。多晶矽改良式冶金法創業計畫在經過財務模型試算後,資本內部報酬率及淨現金流量,即使以改變投資條件進行創業投資的敏感性分析,或以不同情境進行探討,都能符合財務需求條件,仍能滿足創業投資的要求。
Re-newable energy is very hot in these few years. There is lots of information mention about start-up and invest of renewable energy industry including win-power, solar-cell, bio-energy, fuel-cell. Seems every technology will be a future star industry. Which sector of what kind of re-newable energy technology will be the proper opportunity for an entrepreneur? What are effective tools to sieve the
     proper start-up chance out?
     This research first using quality research grounding theories, this research verify proper industry and to find out the feasibility for the specific case. The technology management theories including , Shane’s (2005)「Find Fertile Ground – Indentifying Extraordinary Opportunities for New Ventures 」 10 procedures and Christensen ( 1997) 「 The innovator’s Dilemma 」、 Christensen & Raynor (2004)
     「The innovator’s Solution:The creating and sustaining successful growth 」- Disruptive innovation technology theories . When the specific case through the quality detected, go to quantity study. Th quantity study include building a finance model,calculate Discount Cash-Flow, Equity Internal Return Ratio, Net Present Value, Sensitive analysis Senarial analysis to find out the financial feasibility. This research hopes to find out a suitable star-up opportunity which could pass all the examination items of quality and quantity study. This research through three whole years to search start-up opportunities., examed dozens cases, and the industies including win-power, solar-cell, bio-energy, fuel-cell and stream sector contain
     up-stream, middle-stream, down-stream After through this research process, shows that it is really hard to find out a suitable, profitable and could content the financial
     expection ratio with high win-odds opportunities to run start-up.
     After three years, this research finally pick up the solar upest-stream sector (modified metelology poly-silicon)as the research case.
     The first reason is that solar industry belongs to re-newable energy, which has strong protenial to become a long term and high conpound growing rate industy.
     The second reason:Taiwan have been developing semi- ductor and LCD industries over twenty years and built firmly industy knowledge foundation.Modified metelology poly-silicon is a disruptive innovation, could enlarge the start-up winodds.
     The third reason is that to start-up in the solar industy up-stream sector could build a high barrier and keep a strategy position in the solar industry. The third reason is that the financial result will fit in with the investor’s expect.
謝辭. i
     目錄. iv
     表目錄 vi
     圖目錄 viii
     中文摘要. x
     Abstract xi
     第一章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究的背景與動機 1
     1.2 研究的問題與研究目的 1
     1.3 資料收集方式及各章架構 3
     第二章 文獻探討 6
     2.1 科技創業文獻. 6
     2.2 投資財務評估 14
     2.2 投資財務評估 14
     第三章、研究方法 19
     第四章、太陽能產業概況 21
     4.1 全球電力需求與供應概況.21
     4.2 太陽能產業發展簡史及太陽能電池的分類. 24
     4.3 矽基太陽能電池相關製作技術.25
     4.4 太陽能電池的需求、累計裝機數量及政府補助概況 27
     4.5 多晶矽供需概況及晶矽太陽能製造成本探討 31
     4.6 國內外太陽能產業廠商概況 38
     4.7 太陽能產業的重大議題 45
     4.8 研究機構、學術界、產業界訪談記錄 45
     第五章個案介紹 56
     5.1 個案公司的基本資料 56
     5.2 個案介紹. 56
     第六章 以「科技創業聖經」檢視新事業機會 61
     6.1 選擇正確的產業 61
     6.2 找出有價值的機會 79
     6.3 管理科技的演變 93
     6.4 鎖定市場的真正需求 105
     6.5 瞭解客戶採用的行為. 110
     6.6 利用既有公司的弱點. 114
     6.7 管理智慧財產權 117
     6.8 將報酬導向創新 120
     6.9 選擇正確的組織架構. 122
     6.10 管理風險和不確定性. 124
     6.11 對整個新事業機會評估匯整 127
     第七章 以財務模型預測新事業的獲利狀況. 136
     7.1 基本參數設定. 136
     7.2 計算投資費用 140
     7.3 建立財務模型. 141
     7.4 進行情境模擬及敏感性分析. 142
     7.5 匯整敏感性分析的結論 148
     第八章 結論與建議. 149
     8.1 研究結論 149
     8.2 研究建議事項. 155
     中文參考文獻 157
     英文參考文獻 158
參考文獻 1. 王博祺(2008)。台新金控產業資訊。太陽能產業。臺北市:台灣金控。
2. 克里斯汀生,克雷頓(2007)。創新的兩難。(吳凱琳譯)。臺北市:商周出版;城邦文化發行。(原著出版年﹕1997 年)
3. 克里斯汀生,克雷頓、邁可‧雷頓 (2003)。創新者的解答。(李芳齡 & 李田樹譯)。臺北市:天下雜誌股份有限公司。(原著出版年﹕2003 年)
4. 光電科技工業協進會(2008)。2007 -2008 年全球光電市場與台灣光電產業總論。臺北市:光電科技工業協進會。
5. 林江財(2009 年7 月 )。太陽光電材料技術發展現狀與挑戰。台灣大學
材料系連雙喜教授 (主持人),2009 太陽光電材料研討會,台灣元智大學。
6. 吳子南 (2006)。企業併購評價 – 實質選擇權評估法。國立政治大學經營管理碩士全球經營與貿易組學程論文,未出版,臺北市。
7. 林明獻 ( 2008 )。太陽電池技術入門。臺北市:全華圖書股份有限公司。
8. 夏恩,史考特(2005)。科技創業聖經。(徐永宜譯)。臺北市台灣培生教育出版社 (原著出版年﹕2005 年)
9. 陳德陽(2007)。P 公司轉型新事業之研究。國立政治大學科技管理研究所EMBA 碩士論文,未出版,台北市。
10. 財團法人工業技術研究院產業經濟與趨勢研究中心(2006)。從全球價值鏈探討台灣太陽光電產業發展契機。臺北市:經濟部技術處。
11. 蕭瑞霖(2007)。不用數字的研究。臺北市:台灣培生。
1. Abe, M., Baba, H., Hanazawa K., Fujii T., Kato, Y., Nakamura, N., Sakaguchi Y.,
(1998), Yuge, N., Method for producing silicon for use in solar cells.Kawasaki Steel Corporation (JP), USA Patent No. 6090761.
2. Bartlett, J. E. , & Jennings, C. E., & Margolis, R. M., (2008), A historical analysis of investment in solar energy technologies(2002-2007) ,National Renewable Energy loratory, Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-43602.
3. Booth ,L.,(2002), Finding value where none exist: pitfalls in using adjusted present value,Jounal of Aplied Corporate Finance,15(1),8-17.
4. Estridge,J., & Lougee B. (2007) , Measuring Free Cash Flows for Equity Valuation:Pitfalls and possible Solutions, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 19.( 2),60-72.
5. European Photovoltaic Industry Association PIA),Greenpeace International,
(2007),Solar generation IV –solar electricity for over one billion people and two million jobs by 2020", Belgium & Netherlands.
6. European Photovoltaic Industry Association Renewable Energy House & Greenpeace International(2008), Global market outlook for photovoltaics until 2012 , Belgium &
Netherlands
7. Froot, K. A., & Stein, J.C. (1998), A new approach to capital budgeting for financial institutions, Jounal of Aplied Corporate Finance, 11(2),59-69.
8. Graham, J and Campbell (2002), How do CFOs make capital budgeting and capital structure decisions? , Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 15(1), 8-23.
9. Greenpeace International, (2007), Euopean Renewable Energy Council Energy Revolution report, Netherlands. PrimaveraQuint.
10. Javier, (2007).Discount rates in emerging markets:Four models and an application. jounal of applied finance, 19(2),72-77.
11. Joyce, D. B., Khattak,C.P., & Schmid, F. (1999), Production of solar grade (SoG)silicon by refining liquid metallurgical grade (MG) silicon annual report June 10
1998- October 19,1999, ( NREL/SR-520-27593), USA Colorado, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
12. LEHMAN BROTHERS, (2008), Global Equity Research "Solar Energy", 4 (16), New-York U.S.
13. Magni, A. C. (2005), NPV and CAPM:Biases and violations of modigliani and miller's proposition I(, MPRA Paper No. 7359, posted 27), http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7359.
14. Margolis, R. M.(2003), Photovoltaic technology experience curves and markets, Paper presented at the meeting of NCPV and Solar Program Review Meeting Denver Colorado.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
科技管理研究所
95932089
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095932089
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 溫肇東<br>郭維裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 梁博傑zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 梁博傑zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 01:53:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 01:53:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 01:53:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095932089en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/48935-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 科技管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95932089zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近幾年再生能源的議題非常的熱門,各種再生能源產業的風力發電、太陽能電池、生質能、燃料電池等產業資料,相關創業與投資訊息不斷的傳播。各種科技看起來,好像都是明日之星。對於一個要準備創業的創業家,那一個產業那一個區間才是適合的機會?在投入創業前要透過何種有效的篩選工具才能選出適當的創業機會?
     本研究先從史考特‧夏恩(2005) 的科技創業聖經十個面向,再到創新者的解答與創新者的解答中的所提出的破壞性創新的觀念,先以質性研究的紮根理論探討檢視潛在創業產業及個案的可行性探討,對於經過第一階段質性研究考驗的個案,再以折價現金流量(Discount Cash-Flow)建立量化研究的財務模型,以求得資本內部報酬率(Equity Internal Return Ratio)及淨現金流量(Net Present Value)並以敏感性分析及情境分析探討財務可行性,期望找出一個創業機會能完全符合所有前訴的條件。本研究歷經三年的探討,檢視過數十個個案,包括風力發電、燃料電池、生質酒精、生質柴油、太陽能產業上中下游等創業機會,若要在台灣的環境創業又要提高創業成功機率,且又要能滿足創業團隊財務的報酬率的期望,能經過這麼多條件考驗的個案少之又少。
     本研究最後選定以太陽能產業最上游的多晶矽改良式冶金法做為創業探討的個
     案,最主要的原因是太陽能產業是屬於一種再生能源,有很大的機會成為長期高速成長的產業,且台灣因半導體產業及面板產業已為太陽能產業建立了基礎,多晶矽改良式冶金法又是一種破壞性創新,能提高創業成功的機會,且若在上游產業成功創業,能建立很高的進入障礙,對太陽能產業的發展佈局能具有策略性的地位。多晶矽改良式冶金法創業計畫在經過財務模型試算後,資本內部報酬率及淨現金流量,即使以改變投資條件進行創業投資的敏感性分析,或以不同情境進行探討,都能符合財務需求條件,仍能滿足創業投資的要求。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Re-newable energy is very hot in these few years. There is lots of information mention about start-up and invest of renewable energy industry including win-power, solar-cell, bio-energy, fuel-cell. Seems every technology will be a future star industry. Which sector of what kind of re-newable energy technology will be the proper opportunity for an entrepreneur? What are effective tools to sieve the
     proper start-up chance out?
     This research first using quality research grounding theories, this research verify proper industry and to find out the feasibility for the specific case. The technology management theories including , Shane’s (2005)「Find Fertile Ground – Indentifying Extraordinary Opportunities for New Ventures 」 10 procedures and Christensen ( 1997) 「 The innovator’s Dilemma 」、 Christensen & Raynor (2004)
     「The innovator’s Solution:The creating and sustaining successful growth 」- Disruptive innovation technology theories . When the specific case through the quality detected, go to quantity study. Th quantity study include building a finance model,calculate Discount Cash-Flow, Equity Internal Return Ratio, Net Present Value, Sensitive analysis Senarial analysis to find out the financial feasibility. This research hopes to find out a suitable star-up opportunity which could pass all the examination items of quality and quantity study. This research through three whole years to search start-up opportunities., examed dozens cases, and the industies including win-power, solar-cell, bio-energy, fuel-cell and stream sector contain
     up-stream, middle-stream, down-stream After through this research process, shows that it is really hard to find out a suitable, profitable and could content the financial
     expection ratio with high win-odds opportunities to run start-up.
     After three years, this research finally pick up the solar upest-stream sector (modified metelology poly-silicon)as the research case.
     The first reason is that solar industry belongs to re-newable energy, which has strong protenial to become a long term and high conpound growing rate industy.
     The second reason:Taiwan have been developing semi- ductor and LCD industries over twenty years and built firmly industy knowledge foundation.Modified metelology poly-silicon is a disruptive innovation, could enlarge the start-up winodds.
     The third reason is that to start-up in the solar industy up-stream sector could build a high barrier and keep a strategy position in the solar industry. The third reason is that the financial result will fit in with the investor’s expect.
en_US
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 謝辭. i
     目錄. iv
     表目錄 vi
     圖目錄 viii
     中文摘要. x
     Abstract xi
     第一章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究的背景與動機 1
     1.2 研究的問題與研究目的 1
     1.3 資料收集方式及各章架構 3
     第二章 文獻探討 6
     2.1 科技創業文獻. 6
     2.2 投資財務評估 14
     2.2 投資財務評估 14
     第三章、研究方法 19
     第四章、太陽能產業概況 21
     4.1 全球電力需求與供應概況.21
     4.2 太陽能產業發展簡史及太陽能電池的分類. 24
     4.3 矽基太陽能電池相關製作技術.25
     4.4 太陽能電池的需求、累計裝機數量及政府補助概況 27
     4.5 多晶矽供需概況及晶矽太陽能製造成本探討 31
     4.6 國內外太陽能產業廠商概況 38
     4.7 太陽能產業的重大議題 45
     4.8 研究機構、學術界、產業界訪談記錄 45
     第五章個案介紹 56
     5.1 個案公司的基本資料 56
     5.2 個案介紹. 56
     第六章 以「科技創業聖經」檢視新事業機會 61
     6.1 選擇正確的產業 61
     6.2 找出有價值的機會 79
     6.3 管理科技的演變 93
     6.4 鎖定市場的真正需求 105
     6.5 瞭解客戶採用的行為. 110
     6.6 利用既有公司的弱點. 114
     6.7 管理智慧財產權 117
     6.8 將報酬導向創新 120
     6.9 選擇正確的組織架構. 122
     6.10 管理風險和不確定性. 124
     6.11 對整個新事業機會評估匯整 127
     第七章 以財務模型預測新事業的獲利狀況. 136
     7.1 基本參數設定. 136
     7.2 計算投資費用 140
     7.3 建立財務模型. 141
     7.4 進行情境模擬及敏感性分析. 142
     7.5 匯整敏感性分析的結論 148
     第八章 結論與建議. 149
     8.1 研究結論 149
     8.2 研究建議事項. 155
     中文參考文獻 157
     英文參考文獻 158
-
dc.description.tableofcontents 謝辭. i
     目錄. iv
     表目錄 vi
     圖目錄 viii
     中文摘要. x
     Abstract xi
     第一章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究的背景與動機 1
     1.2 研究的問題與研究目的 1
     1.3 資料收集方式及各章架構 3
     第二章 文獻探討 6
     2.1 科技創業文獻. 6
     2.2 投資財務評估 14
     2.2 投資財務評估 14
     第三章、研究方法 19
     第四章、太陽能產業概況 21
     4.1 全球電力需求與供應概況.21
     4.2 太陽能產業發展簡史及太陽能電池的分類. 24
     4.3 矽基太陽能電池相關製作技術.25
     4.4 太陽能電池的需求、累計裝機數量及政府補助概況 27
     4.5 多晶矽供需概況及晶矽太陽能製造成本探討 31
     4.6 國內外太陽能產業廠商概況 38
     4.7 太陽能產業的重大議題 45
     4.8 研究機構、學術界、產業界訪談記錄 45
     第五章個案介紹 56
     5.1 個案公司的基本資料 56
     5.2 個案介紹. 56
     第六章 以「科技創業聖經」檢視新事業機會 61
     6.1 選擇正確的產業 61
     6.2 找出有價值的機會 79
     6.3 管理科技的演變 93
     6.4 鎖定市場的真正需求 105
     6.5 瞭解客戶採用的行為. 110
     6.6 利用既有公司的弱點. 114
     6.7 管理智慧財產權 117
     6.8 將報酬導向創新 120
     6.9 選擇正確的組織架構. 122
     6.10 管理風險和不確定性. 124
     6.11 對整個新事業機會評估匯整 127
     第七章 以財務模型預測新事業的獲利狀況. 136
     7.1 基本參數設定. 136
     7.2 計算投資費用 140
     7.3 建立財務模型. 141
     7.4 進行情境模擬及敏感性分析. 142
     7.5 匯整敏感性分析的結論 148
     第八章 結論與建議. 149
     8.1 研究結論 149
     8.2 研究建議事項. 155
     中文參考文獻 157
     英文參考文獻 158
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095932089en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多晶矽zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Poly-siliconen_US
dc.title (題名) 太陽能產業上游太陽能等級多晶矽原料科技創業評估zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A technology venture evaluation case study of solar grade siliconen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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