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題名 離散型動態回復率模型之建構與應用
Discrete dynamic recovery rate modeling and its application
作者 邵惠敏
Shao, Hui Min
貢獻者 江彌修
邵惠敏
Shao, Hui Min
關鍵詞 動態回復率
合成型擔保債權憑證
損失分配
系統性風險
dynamic recovery rate
CDO
loss distribution
systematic risk
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 01:56:52 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文主要研究動態回復率之建構。並搭配使用機率勺斗法,將資產之離散損失分配建構出合成型擔保債權憑證分劵損失分配。歸納出離散動態回復率對合成型擔保憑證分劵之風險承擔與信用價差變化。本文發現在動態回復率中,即使在相同條件下有一樣預期損失,能使其債權群組損失分配之標準差較固定回復率小,且可使投資組合巨額損失部份產生厚尾分配現象。動態回復率對各分劵面臨共同存活與違約機率具有緩和或增強分劵承擔風險之作用。在單因子高斯連繫結構靜態違約下,透過隨機回復率能增加動態系統性風險因子之描繪。類似於將系統風險因子分配由標準常態分配改成t分配或是債權群組間違約相關係提高。
參考文獻 江彌修、岳夢蘭、林恩平,2009,「條件獨立假設下合成型擔保債權憑證之評價與避險」,《財務金融學刊》第17期,1-40
江彌修、岳夢蘭、李蕙君,2008,「雙層保護合成型擔保債權憑證之評價與風險特徵研究」,《經濟論文》第36卷第3期,277-314
Altman, E., Brady, B., Resti, A. and Andrea S., 2001, “Analyzing and Explaining Default Recovery Rates”, ISDA Research Report
Altman, E., Resti, A. and Sironi, A., 2004, “Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modeling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence”, Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Seina SpA, 183-208
Altman, E. and Fanjul, G., 2004, “Defaults and Returns in the High-Yield Bond Market: Analysis through 2003”, working paper
Altman, E., Brady, B., Resti, A. and Sironi, A, 2005,”The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications”, Journal of Business, 75(6), 2203-2227
Altman, E., 2006, “Default recovery rates and LGD in Credit Modeling and Practice: An Updated Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence”, working paper, New York University
Amaroui, S. and Hitier, S., 2008, “Optimal Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation”, working paper, BNP Paribas
Amraoui, S., Hitier, S. and Laurent, J.P., “Pricing CDOs with State Dependent Stochastic Recovery Rates”, working paper, BNP Paribas
Andersen, L. and Sidenius, J., 2004, “Extensions of the Gaussian Copula: Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, The Journal of Credit Risk, 1, 29-70.
Bakshi, G., Madan, D. and Zhang, F., 2001, “Understanding the Role of Recovery in Default Risk Models: Empirical Comparisons and Implied Recovery Rates”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2001-37, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington D.C.
Duffie, D. and Singleton, K.J., 1999, “Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds”, Review of Financial Studies 12, 687-720.
Duffie, D., 1998, “Defaultable term structure models with fractional recovery of par”, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.
Duffie, D and Singleton, K.J., 1999, ”Modeling the Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds”, Review of Financial Studies, 12, 687-720
Ech-Chatbi C., 2008, “CDS and CDO Pricing with Stochastic Recovery”, working Paper
Frye, J., 2000a, “Collateral Damage”, Risk, 13(4), 1-94
Frye, J., 2000b, “Depressing Recoveries”, Risk, 13(11), 108-11
Fridson, M. S., Garman, C. M. and Okashima, K., 2000, “Recovery rates: the search for meaning”, Merril Lynch & Co., High Yield Research
Gupton, G.M., Gates, D. and Carty, L.V., 2000, “ Bank loan loss given default, Moody’s Investor Services”, Global Credit Research, November
Hamilton, D.T., Gupton, G.M. and Berthault, A., 2001, “Default and recovery rates of corporate bond issuers: 2000”, Moody’s Investor Services, February
Hull, J. and White, A., 2004, ”Valuation of a CDO and Nth to Default CDS without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, 8-23.
Hui, L., 2009,” On Models of Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation”, working paper
Jarrow, R., Lando, D. and Turnbull, S., 1997, “A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads”, Review of Finance Studies, 481-523.
Jarrow, Robert A. and Stuart M. Turnbull, 1995,” Pricing derivatives on securities subject to credit risk”, Journal of Finance 50, 53-86.
Jokivuolle, E. and Peura, S., 2003, “A Model for Estimating Recovery Rates and Collateral Haircuts for Bank Loans”, working paper
Kim, I.J., Ramaswamy, K. and Sundaresan, S., 1993, “Does default risk in coupons affect valuation of corporate bonds?: A contingent claims model”, Financial Management, 22:3, 117-131
Krekel, M., 2008, “Pricing distressed CDOs with Base Correlation and Stochastic Recovery”, UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking
Laurent, J.P. and Gregory, J., 2003, “Basket Default Swaps, CDO’s and Factor Copula”, working paper
Li, D., 2000, “On Default Correlations: a Copula Function Approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, 9, 43-54.
Li, H.,2009, “On Models of Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation” MPRA Paper
Longstaff, F.A. and Eduardo S. S., 1995, “A simple approach to valuing risk fixed and floating rate debt”, Journal of Finance, 89, 789-819.
Mark, C. and Gordy, M. 2004, “Measuring systematic risk in recoveries on defaulted debt 1: firm-level ultimate LGDs “, Federal Reserve Board, working Paper
Sanjiv R. Das, S.R. and Hanouna, P., 2009, “Implied Recovery”, working paper
Schleifer, A. and Vishny, R., 1992, ” Liquidation values and debt capacity: a market equilibrium approach”, Journal of Finance, 47, 1343-1366.
Zhou, C., 2001, “The term structure of credit spreads with default risk”, Journal of Banking and Finance 25, 2015-2040
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
97352007
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097352007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 江彌修zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 邵惠敏zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shao, Hui Minen_US
dc.creator (作者) 邵惠敏zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Shao, Hui Minen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 01:56:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 01:56:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 01:56:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097352007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49006-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97352007zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文主要研究動態回復率之建構。並搭配使用機率勺斗法,將資產之離散損失分配建構出合成型擔保債權憑證分劵損失分配。歸納出離散動態回復率對合成型擔保憑證分劵之風險承擔與信用價差變化。本文發現在動態回復率中,即使在相同條件下有一樣預期損失,能使其債權群組損失分配之標準差較固定回復率小,且可使投資組合巨額損失部份產生厚尾分配現象。動態回復率對各分劵面臨共同存活與違約機率具有緩和或增強分劵承擔風險之作用。在單因子高斯連繫結構靜態違約下,透過隨機回復率能增加動態系統性風險因子之描繪。類似於將系統風險因子分配由標準常態分配改成t分配或是債權群組間違約相關係提高。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 4
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 回復率介紹 7
第二節 文獻回顧 10
第三章 基本假設與模型設定 15
第一節 合成型擔保債權憑證評價模型 15
第二節 因子連繫模型(Factor Copula) 17
第三節 Krekel 動態回復率模型 18
第四節 Charaf 動態回復率模型 21
第五節 機率勺斗法 27
第四章 數值結果與分析 30
第一節 回復率敏感度分析 31
第二節 違約機率與違約條件下損失之關係 33
第三節 債權群組累積損失分配 37
第四節 動態回復率下各分劵風險特徵 45
第五節 動態回復率對違約相關性之影響 51
第六節 動態回復率對分劵系統風險之影響 55
第五章 結論 58
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097352007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態回復率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成型擔保債權憑證zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 損失分配zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 系統性風險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) dynamic recovery rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CDOen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) loss distributionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) systematic risken_US
dc.title (題名) 離散型動態回復率模型之建構與應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Discrete dynamic recovery rate modeling and its applicationen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 江彌修、岳夢蘭、林恩平,2009,「條件獨立假設下合成型擔保債權憑證之評價與避險」,《財務金融學刊》第17期,1-40zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 江彌修、岳夢蘭、李蕙君,2008,「雙層保護合成型擔保債權憑證之評價與風險特徵研究」,《經濟論文》第36卷第3期,277-314zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altman, E., Brady, B., Resti, A. and Andrea S., 2001, “Analyzing and Explaining Default Recovery Rates”, ISDA Research Reportzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altman, E., Resti, A. and Sironi, A., 2004, “Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modeling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence”, Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Seina SpA, 183-208zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altman, E. and Fanjul, G., 2004, “Defaults and Returns in the High-Yield Bond Market: Analysis through 2003”, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altman, E., Brady, B., Resti, A. and Sironi, A, 2005,”The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications”, Journal of Business, 75(6), 2203-2227zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altman, E., 2006, “Default recovery rates and LGD in Credit Modeling and Practice: An Updated Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence”, working paper, New York Universityzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Amaroui, S. and Hitier, S., 2008, “Optimal Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation”, working paper, BNP Paribaszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Amraoui, S., Hitier, S. and Laurent, J.P., “Pricing CDOs with State Dependent Stochastic Recovery Rates”, working paper, BNP Paribaszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andersen, L. and Sidenius, J., 2004, “Extensions of the Gaussian Copula: Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, The Journal of Credit Risk, 1, 29-70.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bakshi, G., Madan, D. and Zhang, F., 2001, “Understanding the Role of Recovery in Default Risk Models: Empirical Comparisons and Implied Recovery Rates”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2001-37, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington D.C.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D. and Singleton, K.J., 1999, “Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds”, Review of Financial Studies 12, 687-720.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D., 1998, “Defaultable term structure models with fractional recovery of par”, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Duffie, D and Singleton, K.J., 1999, ”Modeling the Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds”, Review of Financial Studies, 12, 687-720zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ech-Chatbi C., 2008, “CDS and CDO Pricing with Stochastic Recovery”, working Paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Frye, J., 2000a, “Collateral Damage”, Risk, 13(4), 1-94zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Frye, J., 2000b, “Depressing Recoveries”, Risk, 13(11), 108-11zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fridson, M. S., Garman, C. M. and Okashima, K., 2000, “Recovery rates: the search for meaning”, Merril Lynch & Co., High Yield Researchzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gupton, G.M., Gates, D. and Carty, L.V., 2000, “ Bank loan loss given default, Moody’s Investor Services”, Global Credit Research, Novemberzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamilton, D.T., Gupton, G.M. and Berthault, A., 2001, “Default and recovery rates of corporate bond issuers: 2000”, Moody’s Investor Services, Februaryzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hull, J. and White, A., 2004, ”Valuation of a CDO and Nth to Default CDS without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, 8-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hui, L., 2009,” On Models of Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation”, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R., Lando, D. and Turnbull, S., 1997, “A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads”, Review of Finance Studies, 481-523.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, Robert A. and Stuart M. Turnbull, 1995,” Pricing derivatives on securities subject to credit risk”, Journal of Finance 50, 53-86.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jokivuolle, E. and Peura, S., 2003, “A Model for Estimating Recovery Rates and Collateral Haircuts for Bank Loans”, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kim, I.J., Ramaswamy, K. and Sundaresan, S., 1993, “Does default risk in coupons affect valuation of corporate bonds?: A contingent claims model”, Financial Management, 22:3, 117-131zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Krekel, M., 2008, “Pricing distressed CDOs with Base Correlation and Stochastic Recovery”, UniCredit Markets & Investment Bankingzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Laurent, J.P. and Gregory, J., 2003, “Basket Default Swaps, CDO’s and Factor Copula”, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, D., 2000, “On Default Correlations: a Copula Function Approach”, Journal of Fixed Income, 9, 43-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, H.,2009, “On Models of Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation” MPRA Paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Longstaff, F.A. and Eduardo S. S., 1995, “A simple approach to valuing risk fixed and floating rate debt”, Journal of Finance, 89, 789-819.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mark, C. and Gordy, M. 2004, “Measuring systematic risk in recoveries on defaulted debt 1: firm-level ultimate LGDs “, Federal Reserve Board, working Paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sanjiv R. Das, S.R. and Hanouna, P., 2009, “Implied Recovery”, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schleifer, A. and Vishny, R., 1992, ” Liquidation values and debt capacity: a market equilibrium approach”, Journal of Finance, 47, 1343-1366.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zhou, C., 2001, “The term structure of credit spreads with default risk”, Journal of Banking and Finance 25, 2015-2040zh_TW