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題名 考量隨機回復率與風險因子承載係數之CDO評價模型
Pricing CDO with random recovery rate and random factor loading
作者 李慎
Li, Shen
貢獻者 江彌修
Chiang, Mi Hsiu
李慎
Li, Shen
關鍵詞 回復率
風險因子承載係數
基準違約相關係數
擔保債權憑證
隨機回復率
隱含違約相關係數
權益分券
先償分劵
信用價差
校準
CDO
recovery rate
random factor loading
base correlation
credit spread
equity tranche
senior tranche
implied correlation
BNP
super senior tranche
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 01:57:00 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究以Amraoui & Hitier (2008)隨機回復率模型(BNP model)以及Andersen and Sidenius(2004)隨機風險因子承載係數模型(RFL model)為基礎,進行對分劵信用價差、債劵群組累積損失機率分配,以及對基準違約相關係數的影響等分析。我們發現當回復率改成動態後可以反映更多系統風險,權益分劵信用價差絕大多數都會下降。在累積損失機率分配方面加入BNP後變為較平滑;改用RFL則會使機率分配在小額損失處又產生一次起伏;同時考量BNP與RFL會使小額損失發生機率減少、極端損失機率增加。實作三組市場資料時,發現不管市場違約機率高或低,共同考慮BNP與RFL的模型在四個模型中是最適合擬和市價的,顯示在市價的校準上有更多彈性,特別是在承擔名目本金60~100%先償分劵的校準上只有共同考慮BNP與RFL的模型能發揮功效。
參考文獻 1.Altman, E., A. Resti and A. Sironi, 2004, “Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence”, Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Seina SpA. Pp. 183-208.
2.Ahluwalia, R. and L. McGinty, 2004, “A Model for Base Correlation Calculation”, JPMorgan, Credit Derivatives Strategy.
3.Andersen, L. and J. Sidenius, 2004, “Extensions of the Gaussian Copula: Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, The Journal of Gredit Risk, 1(1), pp. 29-70.
4.Amaroui, S. and S. Hitier, 2008, “Optimal Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation”. BNP Paribas, June 2008.
5.Amraoui, S. , L. Cousot , S. Hitier and J. Laurent , 2009 “Pricing CDOs with State Dependent Stochastic Recovery Rates” , working paper.
6.Bennani, N. , J. Maetz , 2009 ”A Spot stochastic Recovery Extension of the Gaussian Copula” , Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
7.Ech-Chatbi C., 2008, “CDS and CDO Pricing with Stochastic Recovery” , working paper.
8.Gaspar, R. M. and I. Slinko , 2007, “ On Recovery and Intensity’s correlation - A new class of credit risk models.” , working paper.
9.Hull, J. and A. White, 2004, ”Valuation of a CDO and Nth to Default CDS without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, 12(2) (Winter), pp. 8-23.
10.Krekel, M., 2008, “Pricing distressed CDOs with Base Correlation and Stochastic Recovery”, UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking.
11.Kakodkar, A., (ed.) 2009, “Coping with The Copula”, Merrill Lynch.
12.Li, D. X., 2000, “On Default Correlations: a Copula Function Approach”, Journal of Fixed Incom, 9, pp. 43-54.
13.Lamedica, P. , 2008 ,” The Bermuda Triangle of Super Senior Risk, Structured Credit Strategy” , working paper.
14.O’Kane, D. and M. Livesey, 2004, “Base Correlation Explained”, Lehman Brothers Quantitative Credit Research Quarterly Report.
15.Prampolini, A. and M. Dinnis, 2009, “CDO Mapping with Stochastic Recovery”, HSH Nordbank AG.
16.Torresetti, R. , D. Brigo and A. Pallavicini ,2006, ”Implied correlation in CDO tranches:a Paradigm to be handled with care” , working paper.
17.Yan,X. , 2008 , “Modelling the Dynamic Relationship between Systematic Default and Recovery Risk” , Quantitative Finance Imperial College Business School ,October 2008.
18.林恩平,條件獨立假設下合成型擔保債群憑證之評價與避險,台灣財務金融學會,2009
19.張立民,合成型擔保債權憑證之評價—考量異質分配與隨機風險因子承載係數,政治大學,2007
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
97352029
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097352029
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 江彌修zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chiang, Mi Hsiuen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李慎zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Li, Shenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李慎zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Li, Shenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 01:57:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 01:57:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 01:57:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097352029en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49017-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97352029zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以Amraoui & Hitier (2008)隨機回復率模型(BNP model)以及Andersen and Sidenius(2004)隨機風險因子承載係數模型(RFL model)為基礎,進行對分劵信用價差、債劵群組累積損失機率分配,以及對基準違約相關係數的影響等分析。我們發現當回復率改成動態後可以反映更多系統風險,權益分劵信用價差絕大多數都會下降。在累積損失機率分配方面加入BNP後變為較平滑;改用RFL則會使機率分配在小額損失處又產生一次起伏;同時考量BNP與RFL會使小額損失發生機率減少、極端損失機率增加。實作三組市場資料時,發現不管市場違約機率高或低,共同考慮BNP與RFL的模型在四個模型中是最適合擬和市價的,顯示在市價的校準上有更多彈性,特別是在承擔名目本金60~100%先償分劵的校準上只有共同考慮BNP與RFL的模型能發揮功效。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 6
     第二章 文獻回顧 9
     第三章 基本假設與模型設定 13
     第一節 合成型擔保債權憑證的評價模型 13
     第二節 建構資產群組損失機率分配 15
     第三節 隨機回復率 16
     第四節 隨機風險因子承載係數 20
     第五節 共同考慮隨機回復率與隨機風險因子承載係數 22
     第四章 數值結果與分析 24
     第一節 合成型擔保債權之評價 24
     第二節 評價與分析市場資料 33
     第五章 結論與建議 49
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097352029en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 回復率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風險因子承載係數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 基準違約相關係數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 擔保債權憑證zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 隨機回復率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 隱含違約相關係數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 權益分券zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 先償分劵zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用價差zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 校準zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CDOen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) recovery rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) random factor loadingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) base correlationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) credit spreaden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) equity trancheen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) senior trancheen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) implied correlationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) BNPen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) super senior trancheen_US
dc.title (題名) 考量隨機回復率與風險因子承載係數之CDO評價模型zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Pricing CDO with random recovery rate and random factor loadingen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.Altman, E., A. Resti and A. Sironi, 2004, “Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence”, Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Seina SpA. Pp. 183-208.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.Ahluwalia, R. and L. McGinty, 2004, “A Model for Base Correlation Calculation”, JPMorgan, Credit Derivatives Strategy.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.Andersen, L. and J. Sidenius, 2004, “Extensions of the Gaussian Copula: Random Recovery and Random Factor Loadings”, The Journal of Gredit Risk, 1(1), pp. 29-70.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.Amaroui, S. and S. Hitier, 2008, “Optimal Stochastic Recovery for Base Correlation”. BNP Paribas, June 2008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.Amraoui, S. , L. Cousot , S. Hitier and J. Laurent , 2009 “Pricing CDOs with State Dependent Stochastic Recovery Rates” , working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.Bennani, N. , J. Maetz , 2009 ”A Spot stochastic Recovery Extension of the Gaussian Copula” , Munich Personal RePEc Archive.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.Ech-Chatbi C., 2008, “CDS and CDO Pricing with Stochastic Recovery” , working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.Gaspar, R. M. and I. Slinko , 2007, “ On Recovery and Intensity’s correlation - A new class of credit risk models.” , working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.Hull, J. and A. White, 2004, ”Valuation of a CDO and Nth to Default CDS without Monte Carlo Simulation”, Journal of Derivatives, 12(2) (Winter), pp. 8-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.Krekel, M., 2008, “Pricing distressed CDOs with Base Correlation and Stochastic Recovery”, UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.Kakodkar, A., (ed.) 2009, “Coping with The Copula”, Merrill Lynch.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12.Li, D. X., 2000, “On Default Correlations: a Copula Function Approach”, Journal of Fixed Incom, 9, pp. 43-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13.Lamedica, P. , 2008 ,” The Bermuda Triangle of Super Senior Risk, Structured Credit Strategy” , working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14.O’Kane, D. and M. Livesey, 2004, “Base Correlation Explained”, Lehman Brothers Quantitative Credit Research Quarterly Report.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15.Prampolini, A. and M. Dinnis, 2009, “CDO Mapping with Stochastic Recovery”, HSH Nordbank AG.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16.Torresetti, R. , D. Brigo and A. Pallavicini ,2006, ”Implied correlation in CDO tranches:a Paradigm to be handled with care” , working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17.Yan,X. , 2008 , “Modelling the Dynamic Relationship between Systematic Default and Recovery Risk” , Quantitative Finance Imperial College Business School ,October 2008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18.林恩平,條件獨立假設下合成型擔保債群憑證之評價與避險,台灣財務金融學會,2009zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19.張立民,合成型擔保債權憑證之評價—考量異質分配與隨機風險因子承載係數,政治大學,2007zh_TW