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題名 金融海嘯對航空產業之衝擊
How the financial crises hit the aviation industry and airlines
作者 徐文光
Hsu, Mark
貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Jack
徐文光
Hsu, Mark
關鍵詞 金融海嘯
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 01:59:06 (UTC+8)
摘要 金融海嘯對航空產業之衝擊
Aviation industry was habitually cyclical in nature, particularly for airline business. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 triggered a global credit shock that struck with surprising force in Asia. Before Lehman’s failure, many looked to the region as a bastion of economic stability. After all, Asia had high growth rates, large trade surpluses, and substantial foreign reserves. Most of Asian carriers were well capitalized and mostly free of union harassment afflicting their Western peers. Yet Asia couldn’t avoid the economic fallout from the troubles of Europe and the US. Asia’s economies remain fundamentally sound which is positive for the development of aviation industry. They had track record proven to emerge from the global downturn more rapidly than economies in other regions will. Nonetheless, the crisis has exposed trajectory of globalization and Asia depends heavily on external consumers. Even worse, after a turbulent and panic hedging end in 2008, Asian carriers heavily engaging exotic derivatives instead relying on plain vanilla swaps and options which put them into a bumpy ride of mark to market loss at the end of 2008. To respond the crisis instead of withdrawing from prudent risk taking mentality, the thesis explores various dimensions to form the building block to strengthen the resilience of future airlines business. We argue that more intelligent airlines would take advantage of developed analytics to optimize profit growth, pursue low cost model and strengthen operational and strategic decision making through IT solution. Adaptability is certainly front and center. The winner would ensure corporate process and structure would be engaged with all the staff broadly and respond and make decisions truly aligning with long term strategic intent. The thesis aims for analyzing the key external drivers of the current crisis and outlining the vision of advanced airline business tactics that potentially lead to a new era of equilibrium
Chapter 1 Introduction
     1.1 Research Motive………………………………………………………………....1
     1.2 Research Objective………………………………………………………………3
     Chapter 2 Industry Outlook
     2.1 Crises Turn to Global Catastrophe……………………………………….4
     2.2 Ash Cloud in Regional Level………………………………………………...6
     2.3 Shareholder Value in a Downward Spiral…………………….……...8
     2.4 Correlation between Revenue and Traffic…………………………...9
     2.5 Correlation between Revenue and Stock Index………………….10
     2.6 Low Cost Revolution & Regional Carriers Response…………..11
     2.7 Plagued by Economic Forces……………………………………………..12
     2.8 Subsequent Downturn Regional Impact………………………….…13
     2.9 Survival Mode Still………………………………………………………..……15
     2.10 Low Cost Horizon……………………………………………………………….19
     Chapter 3 External Key Factors
     3.1 Vulnerability for Economic Indicator………………………………….21
     3.2 Character of GDP Driven Traffic………………………………………...27
     3.3 Demand Environment……………………………………………………….30
     3.4 Fuel Prices Vulnerability…………………………………………………….33
     Chapter 4 Strategy and Remedy
     4.1 Tactics of Survival in Uncertainty………………………………….……35
     4.1.1 Route Network Optimization…………..……………………....….37
     4.1.2 Yield Dynamic…………………………………..………………….……...38
     4.1.3 Cost Cutting is The Key……………………………………….………..41
     4.1.4 Cash is Premium and King………………………………………..…..45
     4.1.5 Manage Capacity………………………………………………………….46
     4.1.6 Consolidation and Cross Boarder Strategic Alliances…….49
     4.2 Fuel Phenomenon……………………………………………………………. 53
     4.2.1 Hedging Anxiety Syndrome……………………………………….….53
     4.2.2 Fuel Saving Maneuvers…………………………………………………55
     4.2.3 Derivatives Profile…………………………………………………………57
     4.2.4 Future Hedging Protocols………………………………………….….57
     Chapter 5 What is the Future Shape of Airline Industry
     5.1 Thought after Economic Forces or Uncertainty…………….……62
     5.2 Prospect Horizon……………………………………………………………....63
     5.3 Avoid Mismatch between Yield and Fuel Volatility…………….64
     5.4 Capacity Fine Tune with Economic Cycle……………………………65
     5.5 M&A and Alliance Frenzy………………………………………………..…70
     Chapter 6 Conclusion
     6.1 IT Driving Airlines Business Model…….……….……………………..70
     6.2 Sustainable Competitive Advantage……………………………..…..72
     Reference…………………………………………………………………………………………….75
     List of Figures………..…………………………………………………………………………...77
     List of Tables………....…………………………………………………………………..……...78
參考文獻 1. Alex Dichter, Fredrik Lind, and Seelan Singham, November 2008, “Turning around a struggling airline: an interview with CEO of Malaysia Airlines”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Governance.
     2. Alan Wheatley, “Asia’s infatuation with two-way trade saps WTO,” Reuters, June 23, 2008, 27-32
     3. Brian Pearce, January 2010, International Air Transport Association (IATA), “Fragile recovery and substantial risks remain”, (www.iata.org/economics)
     4. Chin Y. Lim, October 9, 2009, “Asia Pacific Airlines” Morgan Stanley Research, Number 7, 8-9, 33-36.
     5. Chris Tarry, May 2009,“Excess capacity headwind increasing”, Economics for International Air Transport Association(IATA), Aviation industry research and analysis (CTAIRA), working paper, 1-3
     6. Damien Horth, October, 2009, “Global Airline Analyser”, UBS Investment Research, Key trend and recommendation, P5-9.
     7. December 2009, “Navigating the new normal: a conversation with four chief strategy officers”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy practice.
     8. Dominic Barton, December 2008, “Asia’s Future and Financial Crisis”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Financial Service sector, p1-5
     9. Ivan L. Pitt,J. R. Norsworthy, 1999, “Economics of the United States commercial airline industry”, Kluwer Academic Publishers. 2nd ed.
     10. International Air Transport Association (IATA), “Airline Industry Forecast 2009-2013”, business intelligence for “Plan for a successful future today” publication, 1-6.
     11. James Ott, Raymond E. Neidl, 1995, “Airline odyssey: the airline industry`s turbulent flight into the future”, McGraw-Hill. 2nd ed
     12. Kenneth Froot, David Scharfstein, and Jeremy Stein, November-December 1994 “A Framework for Risk Management”, Harvard Business Review, When to Hedge-or not, 21, 23-26, 29-31.
     13. Loizos Heracleous, Jochen Wirtz (2008) “Strategy and organization at Singapore Airlines: Achieving sustainable advantage through dual strategy”, Journal of Air Transport Management 15(2009), 274-279
     14. Martin Keohler, Pedro Esquivias and Raj Varadarjan The Boston Consulting Group “Cutting To Fit”, The Airlines Business, November 2009 Edition, 36-42
     15. Murray Smyth, “Distance Learning”, The Airlines Business, November 2009 Edition, 44-49
     16. Paul Hailey (March 2009) “Hedging in Oil Markets- Challenges in 2009 and Beyond”, PLATTS Forward Curve- Oil, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Special Report for Risk, 1–6
     17. Rigas Dogani, 2005, “The airlines Business”. Second ed. Routledge, Abringdon
     18. Shumeet Banerji, Paul Leinwand, and Cesare R. Mainardi, “Cut Costs, Grow Stronger- A Strategic Approach to What to Cut and What to Keep”, Strategy + Business special issue, Autumn 2009, Booz & Company, 1-20.
     19. Stephen Holloway (2003) “Straight and Level: Practical Airline Economics”, Part 3 Capacity Management, 361–364
     20. Stephen S. Roach, Pitfalls in a Post-Bubble World, Morgan Stanley, 2008
     21. Steven Fazzari, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Bruce Petersen, “Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, 1988, p. 141
     22. Steven Jones, 10-12 November, 2009, “Fuel Hedging: Recent Changes and future developments”, Vienna Aviation Fuel Forum, Morgan Stanley Research, 1-7.
     23. Tom Hansson, Jurgen Ringbeck, and Markus Franke, “Flight for survival: a new operating model for airlines”, Strategy + Business issue, 12 September 2002, Booz & Company.
     24. Tom Hansson, Jurgen Ringbeck, and Markus Franke, “Airlines: A New operating model-providing service and coverage without the cost penalty”, Strategy + Business issue, November 2002, Booz & Company.
     25. William E. O`Connor, 2001, “An introduction to airlines economics”, 6th ed. Chapter 5, Praeger Publisher, The demand for airline service, p 103-115.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
96933004
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096933004
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Jacken_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 徐文光zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsu, Marken_US
dc.creator (作者) 徐文光zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hsu, Marken_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 01:59:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 01:59:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 01:59:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0096933004en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49124-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96933004zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 金融海嘯對航空產業之衝擊zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Aviation industry was habitually cyclical in nature, particularly for airline business. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 triggered a global credit shock that struck with surprising force in Asia. Before Lehman’s failure, many looked to the region as a bastion of economic stability. After all, Asia had high growth rates, large trade surpluses, and substantial foreign reserves. Most of Asian carriers were well capitalized and mostly free of union harassment afflicting their Western peers. Yet Asia couldn’t avoid the economic fallout from the troubles of Europe and the US. Asia’s economies remain fundamentally sound which is positive for the development of aviation industry. They had track record proven to emerge from the global downturn more rapidly than economies in other regions will. Nonetheless, the crisis has exposed trajectory of globalization and Asia depends heavily on external consumers. Even worse, after a turbulent and panic hedging end in 2008, Asian carriers heavily engaging exotic derivatives instead relying on plain vanilla swaps and options which put them into a bumpy ride of mark to market loss at the end of 2008. To respond the crisis instead of withdrawing from prudent risk taking mentality, the thesis explores various dimensions to form the building block to strengthen the resilience of future airlines business. We argue that more intelligent airlines would take advantage of developed analytics to optimize profit growth, pursue low cost model and strengthen operational and strategic decision making through IT solution. Adaptability is certainly front and center. The winner would ensure corporate process and structure would be engaged with all the staff broadly and respond and make decisions truly aligning with long term strategic intent. The thesis aims for analyzing the key external drivers of the current crisis and outlining the vision of advanced airline business tactics that potentially lead to a new era of equilibriumen_US
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Chapter 1 Introduction
     1.1 Research Motive………………………………………………………………....1
     1.2 Research Objective………………………………………………………………3
     Chapter 2 Industry Outlook
     2.1 Crises Turn to Global Catastrophe……………………………………….4
     2.2 Ash Cloud in Regional Level………………………………………………...6
     2.3 Shareholder Value in a Downward Spiral…………………….……...8
     2.4 Correlation between Revenue and Traffic…………………………...9
     2.5 Correlation between Revenue and Stock Index………………….10
     2.6 Low Cost Revolution & Regional Carriers Response…………..11
     2.7 Plagued by Economic Forces……………………………………………..12
     2.8 Subsequent Downturn Regional Impact………………………….…13
     2.9 Survival Mode Still………………………………………………………..……15
     2.10 Low Cost Horizon……………………………………………………………….19
     Chapter 3 External Key Factors
     3.1 Vulnerability for Economic Indicator………………………………….21
     3.2 Character of GDP Driven Traffic………………………………………...27
     3.3 Demand Environment……………………………………………………….30
     3.4 Fuel Prices Vulnerability…………………………………………………….33
     Chapter 4 Strategy and Remedy
     4.1 Tactics of Survival in Uncertainty………………………………….……35
     4.1.1 Route Network Optimization…………..……………………....….37
     4.1.2 Yield Dynamic…………………………………..………………….……...38
     4.1.3 Cost Cutting is The Key……………………………………….………..41
     4.1.4 Cash is Premium and King………………………………………..…..45
     4.1.5 Manage Capacity………………………………………………………….46
     4.1.6 Consolidation and Cross Boarder Strategic Alliances…….49
     4.2 Fuel Phenomenon……………………………………………………………. 53
     4.2.1 Hedging Anxiety Syndrome……………………………………….….53
     4.2.2 Fuel Saving Maneuvers…………………………………………………55
     4.2.3 Derivatives Profile…………………………………………………………57
     4.2.4 Future Hedging Protocols………………………………………….….57
     Chapter 5 What is the Future Shape of Airline Industry
     5.1 Thought after Economic Forces or Uncertainty…………….……62
     5.2 Prospect Horizon……………………………………………………………....63
     5.3 Avoid Mismatch between Yield and Fuel Volatility…………….64
     5.4 Capacity Fine Tune with Economic Cycle……………………………65
     5.5 M&A and Alliance Frenzy………………………………………………..…70
     Chapter 6 Conclusion
     6.1 IT Driving Airlines Business Model…….……….……………………..70
     6.2 Sustainable Competitive Advantage……………………………..…..72
     Reference…………………………………………………………………………………………….75
     List of Figures………..…………………………………………………………………………...77
     List of Tables………....…………………………………………………………………..……...78		-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096933004en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金融海嘯zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 金融海嘯對航空產業之衝擊zh_TW
dc.title (題名) How the financial crises hit the aviation industry and airlinesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Alex Dichter, Fredrik Lind, and Seelan Singham, November 2008, “Turning around a struggling airline: an interview with CEO of Malaysia Airlines”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Governance.
     2. Alan Wheatley, “Asia’s infatuation with two-way trade saps WTO,” Reuters, June 23, 2008, 27-32
     3. Brian Pearce, January 2010, International Air Transport Association (IATA), “Fragile recovery and substantial risks remain”, (www.iata.org/economics)
     4. Chin Y. Lim, October 9, 2009, “Asia Pacific Airlines” Morgan Stanley Research, Number 7, 8-9, 33-36.
     5. Chris Tarry, May 2009,“Excess capacity headwind increasing”, Economics for International Air Transport Association(IATA), Aviation industry research and analysis (CTAIRA), working paper, 1-3
     6. Damien Horth, October, 2009, “Global Airline Analyser”, UBS Investment Research, Key trend and recommendation, P5-9.
     7. December 2009, “Navigating the new normal: a conversation with four chief strategy officers”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy practice.
     8. Dominic Barton, December 2008, “Asia’s Future and Financial Crisis”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Financial Service sector, p1-5
     9. Ivan L. Pitt,J. R. Norsworthy, 1999, “Economics of the United States commercial airline industry”, Kluwer Academic Publishers. 2nd ed.
     10. International Air Transport Association (IATA), “Airline Industry Forecast 2009-2013”, business intelligence for “Plan for a successful future today” publication, 1-6.
     11. James Ott, Raymond E. Neidl, 1995, “Airline odyssey: the airline industry`s turbulent flight into the future”, McGraw-Hill. 2nd ed
     12. Kenneth Froot, David Scharfstein, and Jeremy Stein, November-December 1994 “A Framework for Risk Management”, Harvard Business Review, When to Hedge-or not, 21, 23-26, 29-31.
     13. Loizos Heracleous, Jochen Wirtz (2008) “Strategy and organization at Singapore Airlines: Achieving sustainable advantage through dual strategy”, Journal of Air Transport Management 15(2009), 274-279
     14. Martin Keohler, Pedro Esquivias and Raj Varadarjan The Boston Consulting Group “Cutting To Fit”, The Airlines Business, November 2009 Edition, 36-42
     15. Murray Smyth, “Distance Learning”, The Airlines Business, November 2009 Edition, 44-49
     16. Paul Hailey (March 2009) “Hedging in Oil Markets- Challenges in 2009 and Beyond”, PLATTS Forward Curve- Oil, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Special Report for Risk, 1–6
     17. Rigas Dogani, 2005, “The airlines Business”. Second ed. Routledge, Abringdon
     18. Shumeet Banerji, Paul Leinwand, and Cesare R. Mainardi, “Cut Costs, Grow Stronger- A Strategic Approach to What to Cut and What to Keep”, Strategy + Business special issue, Autumn 2009, Booz & Company, 1-20.
     19. Stephen Holloway (2003) “Straight and Level: Practical Airline Economics”, Part 3 Capacity Management, 361–364
     20. Stephen S. Roach, Pitfalls in a Post-Bubble World, Morgan Stanley, 2008
     21. Steven Fazzari, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Bruce Petersen, “Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, 1988, p. 141
     22. Steven Jones, 10-12 November, 2009, “Fuel Hedging: Recent Changes and future developments”, Vienna Aviation Fuel Forum, Morgan Stanley Research, 1-7.
     23. Tom Hansson, Jurgen Ringbeck, and Markus Franke, “Flight for survival: a new operating model for airlines”, Strategy + Business issue, 12 September 2002, Booz & Company.
     24. Tom Hansson, Jurgen Ringbeck, and Markus Franke, “Airlines: A New operating model-providing service and coverage without the cost penalty”, Strategy + Business issue, November 2002, Booz & Company.
     25. William E. O`Connor, 2001, “An introduction to airlines economics”, 6th ed. Chapter 5, Praeger Publisher, The demand for airline service, p 103-115.		zh_TW