| dc.contributor.advisor | 林祖嘉 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Lin, Chu chia, | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 馬毓駿 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 馬毓駿 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2009 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 8-Dec-2010 02:02:22 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 8-Dec-2010 02:02:22 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 8-Dec-2010 02:02:22 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0912585012 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49230 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 博士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 經濟學系 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 91258501 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 98 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 台北房市自2003年的SARS低點過後逐漸回暖，並在2006年開始房價出現劇烈的漲幅，在決定房屋供給與需求的基本面未大幅變化的前提下，多數學者質疑台北的房價已呈現泡沫化，購屋的負擔已超過多數受薪家庭的支付能力。本文首先擬以購屋成本及投資報酬率的角度分析台北房市泡沫化的幅度，實證結果指出台北市的房價在1990年代及2006年後明顯出現泡沫化的現象，所得及租金推估的泡沫分別達到三成及六成的幅度，且2006年後的房價泡沫至今仍未有破裂跡象。在此一結論下，本文進一步分析生成台北房價泡沫的原因，實證結果指出房價出現泡沫化的同時，與股市報酬率及貴金屬報酬率明顯呈現正相關，貨幣供給增加亦是促成泡沫化的因素。 此外，對於房地產學界一直關注的議題，即房地產景氣預測及房地產價格的推估，本文亦利用貝式分析的技巧適度修補了現階段實證研究遭遇的困難。對房地產景氣的推估而言，加入事前訊息後的馬可夫轉換模型，在掌握房地產景氣擴短縮長的特性有顯著的改善，同時樣本外的預測亦說明其優越之處。在房地產估價方面，貝式多層次模型在面對較少樣本下的估價亦展現優越之處，特別是房價波動較大的期間，在不同樣本數目下，貝式多層式估計的精確度皆明顯優於傳統的特徵價格估計法。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………………… 1 第二章 房價泡沫之研究………………………………………………………… 11 2.1 前言………………………………………………………………………… 11 2.2 資產現值模型及GARCH-M模型………………………………………… 14 2.2.1房價所得比之資產現值模型………………………………………… 14 2.2.2房價租金之資產現值模型…………………………………………… 16 2.2.3 GARCH-M模型……………………………………………………… 18 2.3 資料來源…………………………………………………………………… 21 2.4 實證結果…………………………………………………………………… 24 2.4.1泡沫幅度之推估……………………………………………………… 24 2.4.2泡沫生成因素探討…………………………………………………… 26 2.5 結論………………………………………………………………………… 32 第三章 貝式馬可夫轉換模型下的台灣房地產景氣特性探討……………… 34 3.1 前言………………………………………………………………………… 34 3.2 貝式馬可夫轉換模型……………………………………………………… 36 3.3 資料來源…………………………………………………………………… 42 3.4 實證結果…………………………………………………………………… 43 3.4.1結構性轉變檢定……………………………………………………… 43 3.4.2貝式馬可夫模型估計結果…………………………………………… 45 3.4.3樣本外估計…………………………………………………………… 49 3.5 結論………………………………………………………………………… 51 第四章 貝氏多層次模型在台灣不動產市場估價之應用-以台北市住宅建物為例 52 4.1 前言………………………………………………………………………… 52 4.2 多層次貝式估計理論……………………………………………………… 57 4.3 資料來源及基本統計量…………………………………………………… 61 4.4 實證結果…………………………………………………………………… 63 4.5 結論………………………………………………………………………… 70 第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………… 73 參考文獻………………………………………………………………………… 76 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912585012 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 房價泡沫 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | GARCH-M模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 貝式分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 特徵價格法 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 房價泡沫，景氣預測，及小樣本下住宅價格估計之研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Three essays about housing price bubble, real estate business cycle prediction and small sample estimation of housing price | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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