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題名 台灣期貨市場的資訊交易機率
A Study of the Probability of Informed Trading in Taiwan Futures Market
作者 簡秀如
Chien,Hsiu Ju
貢獻者 郭維裕
Kuo,Weiyu
簡秀如
Chien,Hsiu Ju
關鍵詞 資訊交易機率
日期 2007
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 13:31:59 (UTC+8)
摘要 本篇文章援引Easley and O’Hara (2002) 所完整建構出來的理論模型,探討台灣期貨市場的資訊交易機率。我們選取台灣十年期政府公債期貨為樣本,以兩個月為期間,在流動性考量下,納入日內資料的每筆交易,實証結果顯示,台灣十年期公債期貨市場資訊交易機率僅為0.23。我們將台灣公債期貨市場資訊交易機率低的原因歸因其缺乏流動性,並進一步就流動性低的原因提出解釋。
This paper follows Easley and O’Hara (2002) and estimates the probability of information-based trading in Taiwan Futures Market. We use the intraday data of 10-year Government Bond Futures in Taiwan Futures Exchange, including all transactions as trades in a trading day for liquidity. Our empirical result shows that the risk of information-based trading is quite low since the estimated probability of the information-based trading of 10-year Government Bond Futures is only 0.23. We attribute this result to the illiquidity of 10-year Government Bond Futures, and we provide several explanations for the illiquidity.
參考文獻 [1] David Easley and Maureen O`Hara, 1987, Price, trade size, and information in securities markets, Journal of Financial Economics 19, 69-90.
[2] David Easley, Nicholas M. Kiefer, Maureen O`Hara, 1997, One day in the life of a very common stock, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3, 805-835
[3] David Easley, Soeren Hvidkjaer, Maureen O`Hara, 2002,Is information risk a determinant of asset returns?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, No. 5, 2185-2221
[4] David Easley, Soeren Hvidkjaer, Maureen O`Hara, 2004, Factoring information into returns, Working paper, SSRN
[5] David Easley, Maureen O`Hara, P. S. Srinivas,1998, Option volume and stock prices: Evidence on where informed traders trade”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 2, 431-465
[6] David Easley, Nicholas M. Kiefer, Maureen O`Hara and Joseph B. Paperman, 1996, Liquidity, information, and infrequently traded stocks, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, No. 4, 1405-1436
[7] Albert S. Kyle, 1985, Continuous auctions and insider trading, Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 6, 1315-1335
[8] Charles M. C. Lee and Mark J. Ready, 1991, Inferring trade direction from intraday data, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 2, 733-746
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
95351010
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351010
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭維裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Kuo,Weiyuen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 簡秀如zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chien,Hsiu Juen_US
dc.creator (作者) 簡秀如zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chien,Hsiu Juen_US
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 13:31:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 13:31:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 13:31:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095351010en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49546-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95351010zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本篇文章援引Easley and O’Hara (2002) 所完整建構出來的理論模型,探討台灣期貨市場的資訊交易機率。我們選取台灣十年期政府公債期貨為樣本,以兩個月為期間,在流動性考量下,納入日內資料的每筆交易,實証結果顯示,台灣十年期公債期貨市場資訊交易機率僅為0.23。我們將台灣公債期貨市場資訊交易機率低的原因歸因其缺乏流動性,並進一步就流動性低的原因提出解釋。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper follows Easley and O’Hara (2002) and estimates the probability of information-based trading in Taiwan Futures Market. We use the intraday data of 10-year Government Bond Futures in Taiwan Futures Exchange, including all transactions as trades in a trading day for liquidity. Our empirical result shows that the risk of information-based trading is quite low since the estimated probability of the information-based trading of 10-year Government Bond Futures is only 0.23. We attribute this result to the illiquidity of 10-year Government Bond Futures, and we provide several explanations for the illiquidity.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract
I. Introduction p.1
II. The PIN Model p.6
III.Data p.15
IV. Estimation of PIN p.16
V.Conclusion p.19
Reference
Appendix
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351010en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊交易機率zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 台灣期貨市場的資訊交易機率zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A Study of the Probability of Informed Trading in Taiwan Futures Marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] David Easley and Maureen O`Hara, 1987, Price, trade size, and information in securities markets, Journal of Financial Economics 19, 69-90.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2] David Easley, Nicholas M. Kiefer, Maureen O`Hara, 1997, One day in the life of a very common stock, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3, 805-835zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3] David Easley, Soeren Hvidkjaer, Maureen O`Hara, 2002,Is information risk a determinant of asset returns?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, No. 5, 2185-2221zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4] David Easley, Soeren Hvidkjaer, Maureen O`Hara, 2004, Factoring information into returns, Working paper, SSRNzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5] David Easley, Maureen O`Hara, P. S. Srinivas,1998, Option volume and stock prices: Evidence on where informed traders trade”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 2, 431-465zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6] David Easley, Nicholas M. Kiefer, Maureen O`Hara and Joseph B. Paperman, 1996, Liquidity, information, and infrequently traded stocks, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, No. 4, 1405-1436zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7] Albert S. Kyle, 1985, Continuous auctions and insider trading, Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 6, 1315-1335zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8] Charles M. C. Lee and Mark J. Ready, 1991, Inferring trade direction from intraday data, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 2, 733-746zh_TW