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題名 台灣股票市場的產業外溢效果
Spillover of industry effect in Taiwan stock market
作者 張孟溢
Chang, Meng Yi
貢獻者 郭維裕
Kuo, Wei Yu
張孟溢
Chang, Meng Yi
關鍵詞 外溢效果
一般化向量自我相關模型
產業
波動
報酬
Spillover
generalized VAR
industry
volatility
return
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 13:43:01 (UTC+8)
摘要 We investigate the spillover of industry effect in Taiwan stock market. Using a generalized vector autoregressive where forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to variable ordering, we objectively propose measures of both total and directional spillovers on return and volatility daily data. In full-sample analysis, there is a heavy spillover effect in the interaction between stock market and industries. The stock market acts as a receiver from the information diffused from the industries, but the industries could not be confirmed as spillover outputer or inputer. The rolling-sample findings also pinpoint the high spillovers during the financial events. Finally, conducting the robustness test, we divide the sample periods into subperiods and switch the daily data toward weekly and monthly data, then obtaining the consistent results with prior inference.
參考文獻 Alizadeh, S., Brandt, M.W. and Diebold, F.X. (2002). “Range-based estimation of stochastic volatility models,” Journal of Finance, vol. 57(3):, 1047–92.
Bollerslev, Tim, (1986), “Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,” Journal of Econometrics 31, 307-327.
Cavaglia, Stefano, Dimitris Melas, and George Tsouderos. (2000). “Cross-Industry
and Cross-Country International Equity Diversification”. The Journal of
Investing. Vol. 9, no.1: 65-71
Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2009), "Measuring Financial Asset Return and
Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic
Journal, 119: 158-171.
Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2010), "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive
Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," International Journal of
Forecasting, forthcoming. (With discussion.)
Edwards, S. and Susmel, R., (2001).” Volatility dependence and contagion in
emerging equity markets.” Journal of Development Economics, 66: 505-532.
Edwards, S. and Susmel, R.,( 2003).” Interest-rate volatility in emerging markets.”
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 :328-348.
Engle, Robert E., (1982).” Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with
estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation,” Econometrica 50:
987-1007.
Engle, R.F., Ito, T., Lin,W., (1990).” Meteor showers or heat waves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market.” Econometrica 58: 525–542.
Eun, C.S., Shim, S. (1989), “International Transmission of Stock Market
Movements,” Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis, 24: 241-256.
Forbes, K., Rigobon, R. (2002), “No Contagion, only Interdependence: Measuring
Stock Market Comovements,” Journal of Finance, 57: 2223-2261.
Garman, M.B. and Klass, M.J. (1980). “On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data,” Journal of Business, vol. 53(1): 67–78.
Hamao, Y., Masulis, R.W., Ng, V. (1990), “Correlations in Price Changes and
Volatility across International Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 3:
281-307.
Hamilton, J.D., (1989). “A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary
time series and the business cycle.” Econometrica 57:357–384
Hamilton, J.D. and Susmel, R., (1994). “Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
and changes in regime.” Journal of Econometrics, 64 :307-333.
Harvey, C.R. (1995), “Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 8: 773-816.
Heston, Steven L. and K. Geert Rouwenhorst. (1994). “Does Industrial Structure Explain the Benefits of Industrial Diversification?” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 36, no.1: 3 –27.
Hong, H., Stein, J.,( 1999).” A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets.” Journal of Finance 54 :2143–2184.
Hong, H. and Torous, W. and Valkanov, R. (2007), “Do Industries Lead Stock Markets?” Journal of Financial Economics 83:367-396.
Karolyi, G.A. (1995). “A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions
of Stock Returns and Volatility: The case of the United States and Canada,”
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13 :11-25.
King, Mervyn A and Wadhwani, Sushil, (1990). "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1) :5-33.
King, M., Sentana, E. and Wadhwani, S. (1994), “Volatility and Links Between
National Stock Markets,” Econometrica, 62 : 901-933.
Koop, G., Pesaran, M.H., and Potter, S.M. (1996), “Impulse Response Analysis in
Non-Linear Multivariate Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 74: 119–147.
Lessard, Donald. (1974). “World, National, and Industry Factors in Equity Returns”.
Journal of Finance. Vol. 29, no. 3: 379-391.
Morana, C., Beltratti, A. (2006), “Comovements in International Stock Markets,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, forthcoming.
Parkinson, M. (1980), “The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return,” Journal of Business, 53: 61-65.
Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1998), “Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in
Linear Multivariate Models,” Economics Letters, 58: 17-29.
Richards, A.J. (1995), “Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability, but not Cointegration,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 36: 631-654.
Shiller, R., (2000).” Irrational Exuberance.” Broadway Books, New York.
Sims, C., (2001).” Rational Inattention.” Princeton University Working Paper.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
97351007
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097351007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭維裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Kuo, Wei Yuen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張孟溢zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Meng Yien_US
dc.creator (作者) 張孟溢zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Meng Yien_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 13:43:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 13:43:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 13:43:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097351007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49553-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97351007zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) We investigate the spillover of industry effect in Taiwan stock market. Using a generalized vector autoregressive where forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to variable ordering, we objectively propose measures of both total and directional spillovers on return and volatility daily data. In full-sample analysis, there is a heavy spillover effect in the interaction between stock market and industries. The stock market acts as a receiver from the information diffused from the industries, but the industries could not be confirmed as spillover outputer or inputer. The rolling-sample findings also pinpoint the high spillovers during the financial events. Finally, conducting the robustness test, we divide the sample periods into subperiods and switch the daily data toward weekly and monthly data, then obtaining the consistent results with prior inference.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1. Introduction 1
Chapter 2. Generalized Spillover Definition and Measurement5
Chapter 3. Data 9
Chapter 4. Empirical study in Taiwan market 11
4.1 Full- sample spillover analysis
4.2 Rolling-sample spillover analysis
Chapter 5. Robustness 19
5.1 Subperiods
5.2 Weekly and monthly data
Chapter 6. Conclusion 25
References
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1135172 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097351007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外溢效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 一般化向量自我相關模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 產業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 波動zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 報酬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spilloveren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) generalized VARen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) industryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) volatilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) returnen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣股票市場的產業外溢效果zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Spillover of industry effect in Taiwan stock marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alizadeh, S., Brandt, M.W. and Diebold, F.X. (2002). “Range-based estimation of stochastic volatility models,” Journal of Finance, vol. 57(3):, 1047–92.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bollerslev, Tim, (1986), “Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,” Journal of Econometrics 31, 307-327.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cavaglia, Stefano, Dimitris Melas, and George Tsouderos. (2000). “Cross-Industryzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) and Cross-Country International Equity Diversification”. The Journal ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Investing. Vol. 9, no.1: 65-71zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2009), "Measuring Financial Asset Return andzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," Economiczh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal, 119: 158-171.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2010), "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictivezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," International Journal ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Forecasting, forthcoming. (With discussion.)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Edwards, S. and Susmel, R., (2001).” Volatility dependence and contagion inzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) emerging equity markets.” Journal of Development Economics, 66: 505-532.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Edwards, S. and Susmel, R.,( 2003).” Interest-rate volatility in emerging markets.”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 :328-348.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engle, Robert E., (1982).” Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity withzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation,” Econometrica 50:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 987-1007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engle, R.F., Ito, T., Lin,W., (1990).” Meteor showers or heat waves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market.” Econometrica 58: 525–542.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eun, C.S., Shim, S. (1989), “International Transmission of Stock Marketzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Movements,” Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis, 24: 241-256.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Forbes, K., Rigobon, R. (2002), “No Contagion, only Interdependence: Measuringzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stock Market Comovements,” Journal of Finance, 57: 2223-2261.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Garman, M.B. and Klass, M.J. (1980). “On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data,” Journal of Business, vol. 53(1): 67–78.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamao, Y., Masulis, R.W., Ng, V. (1990), “Correlations in Price Changes andzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Volatility across International Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 3:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 281-307.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamilton, J.D., (1989). “A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationaryzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) time series and the business cycle.” Econometrica 57:357–384zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamilton, J.D. and Susmel, R., (1994). “Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticityzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) and changes in regime.” Journal of Econometrics, 64 :307-333.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Harvey, C.R. (1995), “Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 8: 773-816.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Heston, Steven L. and K. Geert Rouwenhorst. (1994). “Does Industrial Structure Explain the Benefits of Industrial Diversification?” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 36, no.1: 3 –27.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hong, H., Stein, J.,( 1999).” A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets.” Journal of Finance 54 :2143–2184.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hong, H. and Torous, W. and Valkanov, R. (2007), “Do Industries Lead Stock Markets?” Journal of Financial Economics 83:367-396.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Karolyi, G.A. (1995). “A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissionszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) of Stock Returns and Volatility: The case of the United States and Canada,”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13 :11-25.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) King, Mervyn A and Wadhwani, Sushil, (1990). "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1) :5-33.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) King, M., Sentana, E. and Wadhwani, S. (1994), “Volatility and Links Betweenzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) National Stock Markets,” Econometrica, 62 : 901-933.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Koop, G., Pesaran, M.H., and Potter, S.M. (1996), “Impulse Response Analysis inzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Non-Linear Multivariate Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 74: 119–147.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lessard, Donald. (1974). “World, National, and Industry Factors in Equity Returns”.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of Finance. Vol. 29, no. 3: 379-391.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Morana, C., Beltratti, A. (2006), “Comovements in International Stock Markets,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, forthcoming.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Parkinson, M. (1980), “The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return,” Journal of Business, 53: 61-65.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1998), “Generalized Impulse Response Analysis inzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Linear Multivariate Models,” Economics Letters, 58: 17-29.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Richards, A.J. (1995), “Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability, but not Cointegration,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 36: 631-654.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shiller, R., (2000).” Irrational Exuberance.” Broadway Books, New York.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sims, C., (2001).” Rational Inattention.” Princeton University Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) zh_TW