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題名 極端市場狀況下原物料商品加入投資組合的表現
Portfolio performance with commodity investments: an extreme market case
作者 林文凱
Lin, Wen Kai
貢獻者 盧敬植
Lu, Ching Chih
林文凱
Lin, Wen Kai
關鍵詞 原物料投資
投資組合
極端市場
Commodity Investment
Portfolio Allocation
日期 2008
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 15:38:05 (UTC+8)
摘要 In this thesis, we discuss the possible diversification benefits offered by commodity futures, especially in the extreme equity market conditions. We see that adding commodity investments into portfolios could improve their performance with better diversification efficiency. However, with correlation estimation by methods developed by Longin and Solnik(2001) and Ang and Chen(2002), we see correlations between equity and commodity investments increase while they are on downside moves . The results suggest that the diversification benefits offered by commodity investment may change in different market conditions. For further examination, we divide our sample in groups ranked by the home market (U.S. equity investments) returns to see if the commodity-equity portfolio could still perform better over all-equity portfolio in different times. The statistical test shows that the commodity-equity portfolios still perform better than all-equity portfolios. We conclude that commodity investments could make portfolios better-diversified, no matter how the market conditions are.
參考文獻 Ang, A., and J. Chen, 2002, Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios, Journal of Financial Economics, 63, 3, 443-494
Balkema, A.A., and L. de Haan, 1974, Residual life time at great age, Annals of Probability 2, 792-804
Bodie, Z. and V. Rosansky, 1980, Risk and return in commodity futures, Financial Analysts Journal 36, 27-39
Boyer, B.H., M.S. Gibson, and M. Loretan, 1999, Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations, International Finance Discussion Paper 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Driesprong, G., Jacobsen, B., and B. Maat., 2008, Striking oil: another puzzle? Journal of Financial Economics, 89(2), 307-327
Evans, J.L., and S. H. Archer. Diversification and the reduction of dispersion: An empirical analysis, Journal of Finance 23, 761-767.
Fontanills, G.,2007, Getting started in commodity,(John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey)
Forbes, K.J. and Roberto Rigobon,2002, No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovment, Journal of Finance ,57(5), 2223-2261
Geman, H., 2005,Commodities and commodity derivatives: modelling and pricing for agriculturals, metals and energy, (John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey)
Geman, H., Kharoubi, C., 2008 , WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect, Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(12), 2553-2559
Gibbons, M., Ross, S. and J. Shanken, 1989, A test of the efficiency of a given portfolio, Econometrica 57, 1121-1152
Gorton, G. and K.G. Rouwenhorst, 2006, Facts and fantasies about commodity futures, Financial Analysts Journal 62, 47-68
Grubel, H. G., 1968, Internationally diversified portfolios: welfare gains and capital flows, American Economic Review 58, 1299-1314.
Gumbel, E.J., 1961, Multivariate extremal distributions, Bulletin de l’Institut International de Statistiques, Session 33, Book 2, Paris
Ingersoll Jr., J.E. 1987, Theory of financial decision making, Rowman &Littlefield Publishers.
International Monetary Fund, 2000, The impact of higher oil prices on the global economy,Research Department, <www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/oilrep.pdf>
Jobson, J.D. and B.M. Korkie, 1981, Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures, Journal of Finance, 36(4),889-908
Jones, C.M. and G. Kaul, 1996, Oil and the stock markets, Journal of Finance 51(2),463-491
Levy, H., and M. Sarnat, 1970, International diversification of investment portfolios, American Economic Review 60, 668−675.
Longin, F. and B. Solnik, 2001, Extreme correlation of international equity markets, Journal of Finance, 56(2), 649-676
Markowitz, H. 1952, Portfolio selection, Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Pickands, J., 1975, Statistical inference using extreme value order statistics, Annals of Statistics 3, 119-131
Solnik, B. H., 1974, Why not diversify internationally rather than domestically?, Financial Analysts Journal, 30(4), 48-54
Statman, M., 1987, How many stocks make a diversified portfolio?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22(3),353 -363
Tiago de Oliveira, J., 1973, Statistical extremes-A survey, Center of Applied Mathematics, Lisbon.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
94357029
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094357029
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 盧敬植zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lu, Ching Chihen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林文凱zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Wen Kaien_US
dc.creator (作者) 林文凱zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Wen Kaien_US
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 15:38:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 15:38:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 15:38:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094357029en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49640-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94357029zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In this thesis, we discuss the possible diversification benefits offered by commodity futures, especially in the extreme equity market conditions. We see that adding commodity investments into portfolios could improve their performance with better diversification efficiency. However, with correlation estimation by methods developed by Longin and Solnik(2001) and Ang and Chen(2002), we see correlations between equity and commodity investments increase while they are on downside moves . The results suggest that the diversification benefits offered by commodity investment may change in different market conditions. For further examination, we divide our sample in groups ranked by the home market (U.S. equity investments) returns to see if the commodity-equity portfolio could still perform better over all-equity portfolio in different times. The statistical test shows that the commodity-equity portfolios still perform better than all-equity portfolios. We conclude that commodity investments could make portfolios better-diversified, no matter how the market conditions are.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Objectives of the Study 2
1.3 Thesis Outline 3
2. Literature Review 5
3. Data and Methodology 9
3.1. Data: 9
3.1.1 Morgan Stanley Capital International Equity Indices 11
3.1.2 Standard Poor’s Goldman Sachs Commodity Indices (GSCI) 13
3.2 Methodology: 17
3.2.1 Longin and Solnik’s Exceedance Correlation Estimation 17
3.2.2 Ang and Chan’s Correlation Estimation 20
3.2.3 Portfolio Allocation and Portfolio Performance Measurement 21
4. Empirical Results 24
4.1 Asset allocation with and without commodity 24
4.2 Correlation on extreme returns 27
4.3 Portfolio performance under different market conditions 30
5. Conclusion 33
Reference 35
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094357029en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 原物料投資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資組合zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 極端市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Commodity Investmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Portfolio Allocationen_US
dc.title (題名) 極端市場狀況下原物料商品加入投資組合的表現zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Portfolio performance with commodity investments: an extreme market caseen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ang, A., and J. Chen, 2002, Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios, Journal of Financial Economics, 63, 3, 443-494zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Balkema, A.A., and L. de Haan, 1974, Residual life time at great age, Annals of Probability 2, 792-804zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bodie, Z. and V. Rosansky, 1980, Risk and return in commodity futures, Financial Analysts Journal 36, 27-39zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Boyer, B.H., M.S. Gibson, and M. Loretan, 1999, Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations, International Finance Discussion Paper 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Driesprong, G., Jacobsen, B., and B. Maat., 2008, Striking oil: another puzzle? Journal of Financial Economics, 89(2), 307-327zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Evans, J.L., and S. H. Archer. Diversification and the reduction of dispersion: An empirical analysis, Journal of Finance 23, 761-767.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fontanills, G.,2007, Getting started in commodity,(John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Forbes, K.J. and Roberto Rigobon,2002, No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovment, Journal of Finance ,57(5), 2223-2261zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Geman, H., 2005,Commodities and commodity derivatives: modelling and pricing for agriculturals, metals and energy, (John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Geman, H., Kharoubi, C., 2008 , WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect, Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(12), 2553-2559zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gibbons, M., Ross, S. and J. Shanken, 1989, A test of the efficiency of a given portfolio, Econometrica 57, 1121-1152zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gorton, G. and K.G. Rouwenhorst, 2006, Facts and fantasies about commodity futures, Financial Analysts Journal 62, 47-68zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grubel, H. G., 1968, Internationally diversified portfolios: welfare gains and capital flows, American Economic Review 58, 1299-1314.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gumbel, E.J., 1961, Multivariate extremal distributions, Bulletin de l’Institut International de Statistiques, Session 33, Book 2, Pariszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ingersoll Jr., J.E. 1987, Theory of financial decision making, Rowman &Littlefield Publishers.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) International Monetary Fund, 2000, The impact of higher oil prices on the global economy,Research Department, <www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/oilrep.pdf>zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jobson, J.D. and B.M. Korkie, 1981, Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures, Journal of Finance, 36(4),889-908zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jones, C.M. and G. Kaul, 1996, Oil and the stock markets, Journal of Finance 51(2),463-491zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Levy, H., and M. Sarnat, 1970, International diversification of investment portfolios, American Economic Review 60, 668−675.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Longin, F. and B. Solnik, 2001, Extreme correlation of international equity markets, Journal of Finance, 56(2), 649-676zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Markowitz, H. 1952, Portfolio selection, Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pickands, J., 1975, Statistical inference using extreme value order statistics, Annals of Statistics 3, 119-131zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Solnik, B. H., 1974, Why not diversify internationally rather than domestically?, Financial Analysts Journal, 30(4), 48-54zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Statman, M., 1987, How many stocks make a diversified portfolio?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22(3),353 -363zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tiago de Oliveira, J., 1973, Statistical extremes-A survey, Center of Applied Mathematics, Lisbon.zh_TW