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題名 以預測市場理論為基礎之服務概念設計工程
Service Concept Design Engineering with the Prediction Market Theory
作者 羅國倫
Lo,Kuo Lun
貢獻者 苑守慈
Yuan,Soe Tsyr
羅國倫
Lo,Kuo Lun
關鍵詞 服務科學
概念設計
預測市場
概念工程
服務設計
Service Science
Concept Design
Predication Market
Concept Engineering
Service Design
日期 2007
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 15:51:30 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究將原有概念工程的服務設計方法,結合預測市場的理論,設計出一套新的概念設計流程,就是因為服務業的特性與傳統製造業的模式大不相同。過去單方面的由公司或是廠商設計產品,顧客只能從現有產品中挑選買單的狀況將越來越不復存在。在未來服務業的世界中,越發重視與顧客間的互動,在設計的過程中就與顧客有高度的互動,強調服務是與顧客共同創作的成品,服務永遠沒有最後的完成版本,只有不斷因應環境與顧客需求改變的beta測試版本。就是因為加入人這樣極度不安定的因素,造成整體服務在設計上的困難,除此之外,也由於需要顧客的高度參與也導致設計時間成本的激增,環境的瞬息萬變,無法即時掌握顧客的需要並快速做出反應,無論是在現在與未來都將是嚴重的致命傷,也因此組織與個人都將面臨嚴峻的考驗。如何在服務水準與開發成本之間取得一個平衡點,正是本研究所希望能提供的。
In service exchange, both providers and customers are involved in shaping the continuum of value co-production. Combining the concepts of prediction market and concept engineering, service concept design engaged by providers and customers can become much efficient and economical. The providers and customers in service industry are changing all the time. In this industry, there are many uncertain factors to consider and it is important for a design team to establish the relationship with their customers and unfold a service concept design process which can meet consumers’ expectations and needs. This study proposes an IT-enabled process of new service concept design grounded on the analytical model of precision market to achieve the design goal while minimizing the concept development cost by collective customer involvement. This IT-enabled service concept design process comprises four parts (Collecting the voice of the customers, Requirement rater, Concept generator and Concept selector) unfolding the customer-based design of new service concepts in order to meet the customer needs and potentially improve customer satisfaction in light of the uncertainty and the dynamics in what the customers want for services.
參考文獻 [1]. Abramowicz, M. (2006) Predictive Decisionmaking, George Washington University Law School Virginia Law Review, Vol. 92, pp.4-13.
[2]. Alonso-Rasgado, M.T.,THOMPSON, G. and Dannemark, O.J. (2004) State of The Art in Service Design and Modeling, pp.16-21
[3]. Bartlett, C.J. and Calvin, G. (1966) Clinical Prediction: Does One Sometimes Know Too Much? Journal of Counseling Psychology, 13, pp. 267-270.
[4]. Bawden, D., Holtham, C. and Courtenay, N. (1999) Perspectives on Information Overload, Aslib Proceedings, 51 (8), pp. 249-255.
[5]. Bettman, J. R. (1979) Decision Net Models of Buyer Information Processing and Choice: Findings, Problems and Prospects, in Buyer/Consumer Information Processing, G.D. Hughes and M. L. Ray, eds., Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, pp. 59-74.
[6]. Bettman, J. R. and Zins, M. A. (1979) Information Format and Choice Task Effects in Decision Making, Journal of Consumer Research, 4, pp. 141-153.
[7]. Bitran, G. and Pedrosa, L. (1998) ”a structured product development perspective for service operation” European Management Journal, Volume 16, Number 2, April 1998 , pp. 169-189(21)
[8]. Boyle, G. and Videbeck, S. (2005) A Primer on Information Markets. ISCR, Victoria University of Wellingto, pp. 2-7
[9]. Braunstein, M. L. (1976) Depth Perception through Motion, New York: Academic Press
[10]. Broadbent, D. E. (1975) The Magic Number Seven After Fifteen Years, in Studies in Long Term Memory, eds., Alan Kennedy and Alan Wilkes, London: John Wiley & Sons, p.p. 1-18.
[11]. Burchill, G. W. and Shen, D. (1992) Concept Engineering: The Key to Operationally Defining Your Customer’s Requirements. Center for Quality Management Cambrige, MA.
[12]. Chesbrough, H. and Spohrer, J. (2006) “A Research Manifesto for Services
[13]. Dudycha, L. W. and Naylor, J. C. (1966) Characteristics of the Human Inference Process in Complex Choice Behavior Situations, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1(September), pp. 110-128.
[14]. Griffin, A. and Houser, J. R. (1993) The Voice of The Customer. Marketing, Marketing Science, Vol. 12, 1, pp. 1-27
[15]. Hanson, R. and Ryan O. (2004) Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy , working paper, http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdf
[16]. Hayes, J. R. (1964) Human Data Processing Limits in Decision Making, in E. Bennett, ed., Information System Science and Engineering, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company
[17]. Iselin, E. R. (1988) The Effects of Information Load and Information Diversity on Decision Quality in a Structured Decision Task, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 13(2), pp. 147-164.
[18]. Jacoby, J., Donald E. S., and Carol A. K. (1974b) Brand Choice Behavior As a Function of Information Load, Journal of Marketing Research, 11, pp. 63-69.
[19]. Jacoby, J., Donald, E. S. and Carol, A. K. (1974a) Brand Choice Behavior as a Function of Information Load: Replication and Extension, Journal of Consumer Research, 1, pp. 33-42.
[20]. Jacoby, J., Szybillo, G. J. and Jacqueline, B. S. (1977) Information Acquisition Behavior in Brand Choice Situations, Journal of Consumer Research, 3, pp. 209-216.
[21]. Keller, L. K. and Staelin, R. (1987) Effects of Quality and Quantity of Information on Decision Effectiveness, Journal of Consumer Research, 14 (September), pp. 200-213.
[22]. Ken, A. ,Daniels K. ,Kopp, D. and Murdock, B. (2004) “Analysis of 2004 Political Futures Markets” pp. 3-15
[23]. Klapp , O. E. (1986) Overload and Boredom: Essays on the Quality of Life in the Information Society, Westport, Conn.: Greenwoord Press, 2
[24]. Malhotra, N. K. (1982) Information Load and Consumer Decision Making, Journal of Consumer Research, 8, pp. 419-430.
[25]. Malhotra, N. K., Arun, K. J., and Lagakos, S. W. (1982) The Information Overload Controversy: An Alternative Viewpoint, Journal of Marketing, 46 (Spring), pp. 27-37.
[26]. Marien, M. (1994) Infoglut and Competing Problems: Key Barriers Suggesting a New Strategy for Sustainability, Futures, 26 (2), pp. 246-256.
[27]. Miller, G. A. (1956) The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing Information, Psychological Review, 63, pp. 81-97.
[28]. Nelson, M. R. (2001) We have the information you want, but getting it will cost you: Being held hostage by information overload, http://www.acm.org/crossroads/xrds1-1/mnelson.html, Retrieved October 6, 2005.
[29]. Simon, H. A. (1974) How Big Is a Chunk? Science, 183, pp. 482-488.
[30]. Stefan, L.(2007) A Field Experiment on Monetary Incentives in Prediction Markets, Second work shop on prediction markets, San Diego, California, June 2007
[31]. Thorson, E., Well, W. D. and Rogers, S. (1999) Web advertising`s birth and early childhood as viewed in the pages of advertising age, Advertising and the world wide web, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. pp.5-25.
[32]. Ulrich, K. and Eppinger, S. D. (1995) Product Design and Development, McGraw Hill Co,New York, NY
[33]. Wilkie, W. L. (1974) Analysis of Effects of Information Load, Journal of Marketing Research, 11 (November), pp. 462-466.
[34]. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E. (2005) “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper No. 10359.
[35]. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E. (2005) Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, pp. 3-21
[36]. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E. (2006) Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 2-9
[37]. Woodruff, R. B. (1972) Measurement of Consumer’s Prior Brand Information, Journal of Marketing Research, 9, pp. 258-263.
[38]. Wright, P. (1975) Consumer Choice Strategies: Simplifying Vs. Optimizing, Journal of Marketing Research, 12 (February), pp. 60-67.
[39]. 未來事件交易所 http://nccupm.wordpress.com/
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
95356008
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095356008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 苑守慈zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yuan,Soe Tsyren_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅國倫zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lo,Kuo Lunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 羅國倫zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lo,Kuo Lunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 15:51:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 15:51:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 15:51:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095356008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49651-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95356008zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究將原有概念工程的服務設計方法,結合預測市場的理論,設計出一套新的概念設計流程,就是因為服務業的特性與傳統製造業的模式大不相同。過去單方面的由公司或是廠商設計產品,顧客只能從現有產品中挑選買單的狀況將越來越不復存在。在未來服務業的世界中,越發重視與顧客間的互動,在設計的過程中就與顧客有高度的互動,強調服務是與顧客共同創作的成品,服務永遠沒有最後的完成版本,只有不斷因應環境與顧客需求改變的beta測試版本。就是因為加入人這樣極度不安定的因素,造成整體服務在設計上的困難,除此之外,也由於需要顧客的高度參與也導致設計時間成本的激增,環境的瞬息萬變,無法即時掌握顧客的需要並快速做出反應,無論是在現在與未來都將是嚴重的致命傷,也因此組織與個人都將面臨嚴峻的考驗。如何在服務水準與開發成本之間取得一個平衡點,正是本研究所希望能提供的。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In service exchange, both providers and customers are involved in shaping the continuum of value co-production. Combining the concepts of prediction market and concept engineering, service concept design engaged by providers and customers can become much efficient and economical. The providers and customers in service industry are changing all the time. In this industry, there are many uncertain factors to consider and it is important for a design team to establish the relationship with their customers and unfold a service concept design process which can meet consumers’ expectations and needs. This study proposes an IT-enabled process of new service concept design grounded on the analytical model of precision market to achieve the design goal while minimizing the concept development cost by collective customer involvement. This IT-enabled service concept design process comprises four parts (Collecting the voice of the customers, Requirement rater, Concept generator and Concept selector) unfolding the customer-based design of new service concepts in order to meet the customer needs and potentially improve customer satisfaction in light of the uncertainty and the dynamics in what the customers want for services.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節、研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 4
第三節 研究問題 7
第四節 研究目的與預期貢獻 8
第貳章 文獻探討 10
第一節 服務科學與服務設計 10
第二節 概念發展設計 13
第三節 資訊超載 17
第四節 預測市場 20
第参章 研究方法 36
第一節、蒐集顧客心聲(COLLECT THE VOICE OF THE CUSTOMER) 36
第二節、系統架構 40
第三節、REQUIREMENT RATER 41
第四節、CONCEPT GENERATOR 45
第五節、CONCEPT SELECTOR 48
第六節、結論 63
第肆章 實驗設計與結論 64
第一節、實驗環境 64
第二節、實驗目的與評估 70
第三節、實驗結果與評估 72
第伍章 系統架構 92
第一節 組成元件與功能 93
第二節 系統畫面與流程 95
第三節 I-NETWORK整體研究架構 102
第陸章 結論與未來研究方向 108
第一節 結論 108
第二節 本研究之現有限制 111
第三節 未來研究方向 111
參考文獻 113
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095356008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 服務科學zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 概念設計zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 概念工程zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 服務設計zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Service Scienceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Concept Designen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Predication Marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Concept Engineeringen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Service Designen_US
dc.title (題名) 以預測市場理論為基礎之服務概念設計工程zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Service Concept Design Engineering with the Prediction Market Theoryen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1]. Abramowicz, M. (2006) Predictive Decisionmaking, George Washington University Law School Virginia Law Review, Vol. 92, pp.4-13.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2]. Alonso-Rasgado, M.T.,THOMPSON, G. and Dannemark, O.J. (2004) State of The Art in Service Design and Modeling, pp.16-21zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3]. Bartlett, C.J. and Calvin, G. (1966) Clinical Prediction: Does One Sometimes Know Too Much? Journal of Counseling Psychology, 13, pp. 267-270.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4]. Bawden, D., Holtham, C. and Courtenay, N. (1999) Perspectives on Information Overload, Aslib Proceedings, 51 (8), pp. 249-255.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5]. Bettman, J. R. (1979) Decision Net Models of Buyer Information Processing and Choice: Findings, Problems and Prospects, in Buyer/Consumer Information Processing, G.D. Hughes and M. L. Ray, eds., Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, pp. 59-74.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6]. Bettman, J. R. and Zins, M. A. (1979) Information Format and Choice Task Effects in Decision Making, Journal of Consumer Research, 4, pp. 141-153.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7]. Bitran, G. and Pedrosa, L. (1998) ”a structured product development perspective for service operation” European Management Journal, Volume 16, Number 2, April 1998 , pp. 169-189(21)zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8]. Boyle, G. and Videbeck, S. (2005) A Primer on Information Markets. ISCR, Victoria University of Wellingto, pp. 2-7zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [9]. Braunstein, M. L. (1976) Depth Perception through Motion, New York: Academic Presszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [10]. Broadbent, D. E. (1975) The Magic Number Seven After Fifteen Years, in Studies in Long Term Memory, eds., Alan Kennedy and Alan Wilkes, London: John Wiley & Sons, p.p. 1-18.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [11]. Burchill, G. W. and Shen, D. (1992) Concept Engineering: The Key to Operationally Defining Your Customer’s Requirements. Center for Quality Management Cambrige, MA.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [12]. Chesbrough, H. and Spohrer, J. (2006) “A Research Manifesto for Serviceszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [13]. Dudycha, L. W. and Naylor, J. C. (1966) Characteristics of the Human Inference Process in Complex Choice Behavior Situations, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1(September), pp. 110-128.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [14]. Griffin, A. and Houser, J. R. (1993) The Voice of The Customer. Marketing, Marketing Science, Vol. 12, 1, pp. 1-27zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [15]. Hanson, R. and Ryan O. (2004) Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy , working paper, http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdfzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [16]. Hayes, J. R. (1964) Human Data Processing Limits in Decision Making, in E. Bennett, ed., Information System Science and Engineering, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Companyzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [17]. Iselin, E. R. (1988) The Effects of Information Load and Information Diversity on Decision Quality in a Structured Decision Task, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 13(2), pp. 147-164.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [18]. Jacoby, J., Donald E. S., and Carol A. K. (1974b) Brand Choice Behavior As a Function of Information Load, Journal of Marketing Research, 11, pp. 63-69.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [19]. Jacoby, J., Donald, E. S. and Carol, A. K. (1974a) Brand Choice Behavior as a Function of Information Load: Replication and Extension, Journal of Consumer Research, 1, pp. 33-42.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [20]. Jacoby, J., Szybillo, G. J. and Jacqueline, B. S. (1977) Information Acquisition Behavior in Brand Choice Situations, Journal of Consumer Research, 3, pp. 209-216.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [21]. Keller, L. K. and Staelin, R. (1987) Effects of Quality and Quantity of Information on Decision Effectiveness, Journal of Consumer Research, 14 (September), pp. 200-213.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [22]. Ken, A. ,Daniels K. ,Kopp, D. and Murdock, B. (2004) “Analysis of 2004 Political Futures Markets” pp. 3-15zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [23]. Klapp , O. E. (1986) Overload and Boredom: Essays on the Quality of Life in the Information Society, Westport, Conn.: Greenwoord Press, 2zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [24]. Malhotra, N. K. (1982) Information Load and Consumer Decision Making, Journal of Consumer Research, 8, pp. 419-430.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [25]. Malhotra, N. K., Arun, K. J., and Lagakos, S. W. (1982) The Information Overload Controversy: An Alternative Viewpoint, Journal of Marketing, 46 (Spring), pp. 27-37.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [26]. Marien, M. (1994) Infoglut and Competing Problems: Key Barriers Suggesting a New Strategy for Sustainability, Futures, 26 (2), pp. 246-256.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [27]. Miller, G. A. (1956) The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing Information, Psychological Review, 63, pp. 81-97.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [28]. Nelson, M. R. (2001) We have the information you want, but getting it will cost you: Being held hostage by information overload, http://www.acm.org/crossroads/xrds1-1/mnelson.html, Retrieved October 6, 2005.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [29]. Simon, H. A. (1974) How Big Is a Chunk? Science, 183, pp. 482-488.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [30]. Stefan, L.(2007) A Field Experiment on Monetary Incentives in Prediction Markets, Second work shop on prediction markets, San Diego, California, June 2007zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [31]. Thorson, E., Well, W. D. and Rogers, S. (1999) Web advertising`s birth and early childhood as viewed in the pages of advertising age, Advertising and the world wide web, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. pp.5-25.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [32]. Ulrich, K. and Eppinger, S. D. (1995) Product Design and Development, McGraw Hill Co,New York, NYzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [33]. Wilkie, W. L. (1974) Analysis of Effects of Information Load, Journal of Marketing Research, 11 (November), pp. 462-466.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [34]. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E. (2005) “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper No. 10359.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [35]. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E. (2005) Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, pp. 3-21zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [36]. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E. (2006) Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 2-9zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [37]. Woodruff, R. B. (1972) Measurement of Consumer’s Prior Brand Information, Journal of Marketing Research, 9, pp. 258-263.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [38]. Wright, P. (1975) Consumer Choice Strategies: Simplifying Vs. Optimizing, Journal of Marketing Research, 12 (February), pp. 60-67.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [39]. 未來事件交易所 http://nccupm.wordpress.com/zh_TW