學術產出-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

政大圖書館

Citation Infomation

  • No doi shows Citation Infomation
題名 違約傳染模型及其應用
A contagion model of defaults and its applications
作者 揚濬濂
貢獻者 江彌修
揚濬濂
關鍵詞 傳染
違約
信用
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 16:22:53 (UTC+8)
摘要 目前市場多以因子聯繫模型(factor copula)作為擔保信用憑證之評價基礎,然而其靜態的性質無法捕捉違約環境之演變,且其對條件獨立的假設經實證資料而遭質疑。本文以Davis and Lo(2001)的違約傳染模型為基礎,傳染是新的一種描述違約相關性的方式,我們將Davis and Lo(2001)的模型作了延伸,改變其違約狀態及傳染形式,讓其應用性更廣,使違約傳染模型能用來評價擔保信用憑證。
參考文獻 1. Andersen, L., J. Sidenius, and S., Basu, (2003), “All Your Hedges in One
Basket,” Risk, 16, 67-72
2. Areski Cousin ,Didier Rullière, and Diana Dorobantu(2010), “An Extension
of Davis and Lo’s Contagion Model,”
3. Azizpour, S., Giesecke, K.(2008) Self-exciting corporate defaults:
contagin vs. frailty, working paper, Stanford University.
4. Black, F. an J. C. Cox, (1976), “Valuing corporate securities:effects of
bond indenture provisions,” Journal of Finance 31, 351-367.
5. Das, S.R., Duffie, D., Kapadia, N., Saita, L. (2007) “Common failings: how
corporate defaults are correlated.” Journal of Finance 62(1), 93-117
6. David Li, D.X. (2000), “On Default Correlation: A Copula Approach,”
Journal of Fixed Income, 9 43-54
7. Davis, M., and Lo, V.(2001), ”Infectious Defaults”, Quantitative Finance 1,
382-397.
8. Duffie, D. and K. Singleton, (1999), “Modeling term structures of
defaultable bonds,” Review of Financial Studies 12, 687-720
9. Egloff, D., Leippold ,M., Vanini, P.,(2007),”A simple model of credit
contagion, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), 2475-2492
10. Graziano, G., Rogers, C.(2006), “Pricing k-th to default swaps under
default contagion, the matrix-analytic approach,” Journal of Computational
Finance ,12(1), 49-78.
11. Hull, J., and A. White (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and nth to Default CDS
without Monte Carlo Simulation,” Journal of Derivatives, 12 8-23
12. Hull, J., and A. White (2008), “Dynamic Models of Portfolio Credit Risk: a
Simplified Approach,” Journal of Derivatives,15,9-28
13. Laurent, J.P. and J. Gregory, (2003), “Basket default swaps, CDO’s and
factor copulas,” working paper, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyon
14. Merton, R.C. , (1974), “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk
Structure of Interest Rates,” Journal of Finance, 29 449-470.
15. Jarrow, R., and Yu, F. (2001) “Counterparty risk and the pricing of
defaultable securities, Journal of Finance 56, 1765-1799
16. Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull, (1995), “Pricing Derivatives on Financial
Securities Subject to Credit Risk, “Journal of Finance,50,53-85.
17. Jarrow, R., D. Lando, and S. Turnbull, (1997), “A Markov Model for the
Term Structure of Credit Spread,” Reviw of Financial Studies 10,481-523.
18. Kraft, H., Steffensen, M.,(2007), “Bankruptcy counterparty risk, and
contagion,” Review of Finance, 11, 209-252.
19. R
..
o sch, D., Winterfeldt, B. (2008), “Estimating credit contagion in a
standard factor model,” Risk, August 2008, S. 78-82
20. Sakata, A., Hisakado, M., Mori, S. (2007), “Infectious Default Model with
Recovery and Continuous Limits, Journal of the Physical Society of Japan,
Vol. 76, No. 5.
21. Sch
..
o nbucher, P., Schubert, D. (2001), “Copula dependent default risk in
intensity models,” Working paper, Bonn University.
22. Sch
..
o nbucher, P.J., (2006), “Portfolio losses and the term-structure of loss
transition rates: a new methodology for the pricing of portfolio credit
derivatives, working paper, ETH Z
..
u rich.
23. Van der Voort, M.,(2006), “An implied loss model,” working paper, Bonn
University
24. Yu, F.,(2007),”Correlated defaults in intensity-based models.”
Mathematical Finance 17(2), 155-173
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
97352026
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0973520261
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 江彌修zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 揚濬濂zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 揚濬濂zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 16:22:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 16:22:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 16:22:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0973520261en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49671-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97352026zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 目前市場多以因子聯繫模型(factor copula)作為擔保信用憑證之評價基礎,然而其靜態的性質無法捕捉違約環境之演變,且其對條件獨立的假設經實證資料而遭質疑。本文以Davis and Lo(2001)的違約傳染模型為基礎,傳染是新的一種描述違約相關性的方式,我們將Davis and Lo(2001)的模型作了延伸,改變其違約狀態及傳染形式,讓其應用性更廣,使違約傳染模型能用來評價擔保信用憑證。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 導論 ...................................................... 4
第二章 文獻回顧 .................................................. 6
第一節 信用風險模型與違約傳染模型................................................................ 6
第二節 DAVIS AND LO的傳染模型 ....................................................................... 9
第三章 模型設定 ................................................. 11
第一節 模型基本設定.......................................................................................... 11
第二節 單期模型.................................................................................................. 13
第三節 跨期模型.................................................................................................. 17
第四節 模型結合BETA分配 ............................................................................... 19
第四章 數值分析 .................................................. 21
第一節 違約狀態及傳染型式對違約次數的影響.............................................. 21
第二節 模型參數對違約次數的影響.................................................................. 26
第三節
模型評價合成型的擔保信用憑證 .......................................................... 35
第五章 結論 ..................................................... 44
附錄 ......................................................... 45
參考文獻 ......................................................... 48
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1474168 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0973520261en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傳染zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 違約zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 違約傳染模型及其應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A contagion model of defaults and its applicationsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Andersen, L., J. Sidenius, and S., Basu, (2003), “All Your Hedges in Onezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Basket,” Risk, 16, 67-72zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Areski Cousin ,Didier Rullière, and Diana Dorobantu(2010), “An Extensionzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) of Davis and Lo’s Contagion Model,”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Azizpour, S., Giesecke, K.(2008) Self-exciting corporate defaults:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) contagin vs. frailty, working paper, Stanford University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Black, F. an J. C. Cox, (1976), “Valuing corporate securities:effects ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) bond indenture provisions,” Journal of Finance 31, 351-367.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. Das, S.R., Duffie, D., Kapadia, N., Saita, L. (2007) “Common failings: howzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) corporate defaults are correlated.” Journal of Finance 62(1), 93-117zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. David Li, D.X. (2000), “On Default Correlation: A Copula Approach,”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal of Fixed Income, 9 43-54zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Davis, M., and Lo, V.(2001), ”Infectious Defaults”, Quantitative Finance 1,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 382-397.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. Duffie, D. and K. Singleton, (1999), “Modeling term structures ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) defaultable bonds,” Review of Financial Studies 12, 687-720zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. Egloff, D., Leippold ,M., Vanini, P.,(2007),”A simple model of creditzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) contagion, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), 2475-2492zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Graziano, G., Rogers, C.(2006), “Pricing k-th to default swaps underzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) default contagion, the matrix-analytic approach,” Journal of Computationalzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Finance ,12(1), 49-78.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Hull, J., and A. White (2004), “Valuation of a CDO and nth to Default CDSzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) without Monte Carlo Simulation,” Journal of Derivatives, 12 8-23zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. Hull, J., and A. White (2008), “Dynamic Models of Portfolio Credit Risk: azh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Simplified Approach,” Journal of Derivatives,15,9-28zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. Laurent, J.P. and J. Gregory, (2003), “Basket default swaps, CDO’s andzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) factor copulas,” working paper, ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyonzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. Merton, R.C. , (1974), “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Riskzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Structure of Interest Rates,” Journal of Finance, 29 449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15. Jarrow, R., and Yu, F. (2001) “Counterparty risk and the pricing ofzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) defaultable securities, Journal of Finance 56, 1765-1799zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16. Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull, (1995), “Pricing Derivatives on Financialzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Securities Subject to Credit Risk, “Journal of Finance,50,53-85.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. Jarrow, R., D. Lando, and S. Turnbull, (1997), “A Markov Model for thezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Term Structure of Credit Spread,” Reviw of Financial Studies 10,481-523.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. Kraft, H., Steffensen, M.,(2007), “Bankruptcy counterparty risk, andzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) contagion,” Review of Finance, 11, 209-252.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Rzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ..zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) o sch, D., Winterfeldt, B. (2008), “Estimating credit contagion in azh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) standard factor model,” Risk, August 2008, S. 78-82zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20. Sakata, A., Hisakado, M., Mori, S. (2007), “Infectious Default Model withzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Recovery and Continuous Limits, Journal of the Physical Society of Japan,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Vol. 76, No. 5.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21. Schzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ..zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) o nbucher, P., Schubert, D. (2001), “Copula dependent default risk inzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) intensity models,” Working paper, Bonn University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 22. Schzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ..zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) o nbucher, P.J., (2006), “Portfolio losses and the term-structure of losszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) transition rates: a new methodology for the pricing of portfolio creditzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) derivatives, working paper, ETH Zzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ..zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) u rich.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 23. Van der Voort, M.,(2006), “An implied loss model,” working paper, Bonnzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Universityzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 24. Yu, F.,(2007),”Correlated defaults in intensity-based models.”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mathematical Finance 17(2), 155-173zh_TW