| dc.contributor.advisor | 張士傑 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 林威廷 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 林威廷 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2007 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 8-Dec-2010 16:25:37 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 8-Dec-2010 16:25:37 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 8-Dec-2010 16:25:37 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0095358021 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49675 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 風險管理與保險研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 95358021 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 96 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本文針對躉繳保費的附保證變額壽險進行評價，保單形式為生死合險，假設投保人可將期初的投資金額連結到兩種投資標的：股價指數及債券型基金，並以BGM模型描述利率的動態過程，然後分別計算不含解約權及含解約權的附保證變額壽險躉繳保費，進而求算出隱含在保單中的保證價值和解約權價值。針對含解約權的附保證變額壽險，以Longstaff and Schwartz(2001)提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法處理解約的問題。最後，我們求算不同年齡下的男性保費，並且在投資比例、起始最低保證、最低保證給付成長率、針對解約的保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點變動下，分別討論對於保證價值和解約權價值的影響。結果顯示：(1)當起始最低保證給付等於期初投資金額時，投資在股票的比例越大，越能凸顯保證價值和解約權價值佔保費的比重。以30歲男性為例，保證價值佔不含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.03%，成長到全部投資在股票的13.86%；而解約權價值佔含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.05%，成長到全部投資在股票的9.12%。(2)投資比例、起始最低保證給付和最低保證給付成長率越大，保證價值越高。(3)起始最低保證給付和針對解約的保證給付成長率越大，解約權價值越大；而最低保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點越大，解約權價值越小。(4)投資比例隨著最低保證給付不同對解約權價值有不同的影響。關鍵字：附保證變額壽險、BGM利率模型、解約選擇權、最小平方蒙地卡羅法 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This study emphasizes on the pricing of variable life insurance with minimum guarantees. As an endowment policy in a single premium form, in this paper, it is assumed that the insured can distribute the initial investment amount into two underlying assets: the stock index fund and bond fund. Simulating the interest rate under a BGM model, computational procedures are performed for the single premium of the variable life insurance policy without surrender option and embedding a surrender option, and further, the guarantee value and surrender value embedded in the insurance policy. For the variable life insurance policy embedding a surrender option, the Least Square Monte-Carlo method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is applied to solve the surrender conditions. Finally, we calculate the premium for a male at different ages, and respectively analyze the variations of the guarantee value and surrender value under the influence of the investment portfolio, the initial minimum guaranteed amount, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee for surrender and the first permitted surrender time. The results show that: (1) when the initial minimum guaranteed amount equals the initial investment amount, higher proportion invested in stock will result in larger percentage of the guarantee value and surrender value to total premium. Take a 30-year old male as an example: the percentage of guarantee value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and without a surrender option, which is 0.03% when the initial investment amount thoroughly goes to bond fund, rises up to 13.86% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. Likewise, the percentage of surrender value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and surrender option is 0.05% with total amount invested in bond fund, while it is 9.12% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. (2) The higher proportion invested in stock, the initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of minimum guaranteed amount, the larger guarantee value. (3) Larger initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount for surrender would contribute to a higher surrender value. The higher growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount and the first permitted surrender time, the lower surrender value. (4) The influence of the investment portfolio to surrender value depends on the initial minimum guaranteed amount.Key words: Variable life insurance with minimum guaranteed amount, BGM interest rate model, surrender option, least squares Monte Carlo approach. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的與架構 4第二章 文獻探討 6第一節 變額壽險 6第二節 解約選擇權 9第三節 最小平方蒙地卡羅方法 11第三章 評價模型 16第一節 利率模型與股價模型 17第二節 不含解約權之附保證變額壽險評價方法 20第三節 含解約權之附保證變額壽險評價方法 23第四章 數值分析 27第一節 股價與利率模擬 27第二節 模擬結果 36第三節 敏感度分析 41第五章 結論與建議 47參考文獻 49附表 52 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095358021 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 附保證變額壽險 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | BGM利率模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 解約選擇權 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 最小平方蒙地卡羅法 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Variable life insurance with minimum guaranteed amount | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | BGM interest rate model | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Surrender option | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Least squares Monte Carlo approach | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 含解約權之附保證變額壽險評價分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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