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題名 退休需求與理財規劃實務之探討
作者 林鴻諭
貢獻者 黃泓智
林鴻諭
關鍵詞 退休規劃
資產配置
投資策略
retirement planning
asset allocation
investment strategy
日期 2008
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 16:29:23 (UTC+8)
摘要 由於扶養比降低與平均餘命增加,退休理財規劃已被國人所重視。本研究首先介紹退休規劃的流程,依照世界銀行1994年所提出之退休所得三層架構,第一層為強制性社會安全制度的保障,第二層為退休金制度,以及第三層為自願性商業保險儲蓄制度。當退休前的自願儲蓄不足時,即可能產生退休不足度的問題,解決方式為設法提高退休所得;而影響退休所得有三個主要因素,其一為金額之多寡,其二為累積時間之長短,而最為個人能掌握的第三個重要因素為「投資報酬率」之高低,因此如何利用較佳的投資策略與報酬,減少退休所得不足的問題即為一種大課題。本研究主要的目的為考量風險因素後,分析各種投資策略的績效與檢視交易成本對其之影響,並且設法在有無限制風險程度下,找出最大報酬率的策略。分析結果發現固定比例混合法投資策略在各績效衡量指標下與加入交易成本考量皆有較佳的表現,且在限制風險找尋最大報酬的情形下也是如此;但如果是在沒有限制風險找尋最大報酬的情形,固定比例混合法投資策略在以尾端風險為考量之決策目標時,即非最好的策略。



關鍵字:退休規劃、資產配置、投資策略
參考文獻 1. André F. Perold and William F. Sharpe (1995), Dynamic Strategies for Asset Allocation, Financial Analysts Journal , Vol. 51, 149-160
2. Brian J. Jacobsen (2006), The Use of Downside Risk Measures in Tax-Efficient Portfolio Construction and Evaluation, The Journal of Wealth Management, Vol. 8, Iss. 4, 17 -27
3. Christopher Donohue and Kenneth Yip (2003),Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing with Transaction Costs, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 29, Iss. 4, 49-63
4. Cox, J.C., J. Ingersoll, and S. Ross (1985). A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Econometrica, 53, 385-408.
5. Gordon J. Alexander, Alexandre M. Baptista (2003), Portfolio Performance Evaluation Using Value at Risk, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 29, Iss. 4, 93-102
6. Kevin Dowd, A Value at Risk Approach to Risk-return Analysis (1999), Journal of portfolio management, Vol. 25, Iss. 4, 60-67
7. Paolo Battocchio and Francesco Menoncin (2004), Optimal Pension Management in A Stochastic Framework, Insurance :Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 34, Iss. 1, 79-95.
8. Roger G . Clarke , Harindra de Silva , and Robert Murdock (2005), A Factor Approach to Asset Allocation, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 32, Iss. 1, 10-21
9. Roger G. Clarke and Robert D. Arnott (1987), The Cost of Portfolio Insurance: Tradeoffs and Choices, Financial Analysts Journal, Nov/Dec, 35-47
10. Ulf Herold, Raimond Maurer, Michael Stamos, Huy Thanh (2007), Total Return Strategies for Multi-Asset Portfolios, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 33, Iss. 2, 60-76
11. Elena Vigna and Steven Haberman (2001), Optimal Investment Strategy for Defined Contribution Pension Schemes, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 28, Iss. 2, 233-262.
12. William T Ziemba (2005), The Symmetric Downside-Risk Sharpe Ratio, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 32, Iss. 1, 108-122
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
96358005
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096358005
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃泓智zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林鴻諭zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 林鴻諭zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 16:29:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 16:29:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 16:29:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0096358005en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49677-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96358005zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 由於扶養比降低與平均餘命增加,退休理財規劃已被國人所重視。本研究首先介紹退休規劃的流程,依照世界銀行1994年所提出之退休所得三層架構,第一層為強制性社會安全制度的保障,第二層為退休金制度,以及第三層為自願性商業保險儲蓄制度。當退休前的自願儲蓄不足時,即可能產生退休不足度的問題,解決方式為設法提高退休所得;而影響退休所得有三個主要因素,其一為金額之多寡,其二為累積時間之長短,而最為個人能掌握的第三個重要因素為「投資報酬率」之高低,因此如何利用較佳的投資策略與報酬,減少退休所得不足的問題即為一種大課題。本研究主要的目的為考量風險因素後,分析各種投資策略的績效與檢視交易成本對其之影響,並且設法在有無限制風險程度下,找出最大報酬率的策略。分析結果發現固定比例混合法投資策略在各績效衡量指標下與加入交易成本考量皆有較佳的表現,且在限制風險找尋最大報酬的情形下也是如此;但如果是在沒有限制風險找尋最大報酬的情形,固定比例混合法投資策略在以尾端風險為考量之決策目標時,即非最好的策略。



關鍵字:退休規劃、資產配置、投資策略
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 謝辭 I
中文摘要 III
英文摘要 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 文獻回顧 2
第二章 投資模型、投資策略模型與衡量指標 4
2.1 投資模型 4
2.2 投資策略模型 5
2.3 投資衡量指標 11
第三章 退休規劃與退休不足度 14
3.1 退休規劃流程 14
3.2 情境模擬 14
3.3 自行提撥效果 15
第四章 模擬結果 20
4.1 模型與投資情境假設 20
4.2 投資策略分析 21
4.2.1 衡量指標 21
4.2.3 交易成本 27
4.3 最適投資組合 31
4.3.1 無限制風險 31
4.3.2 限制風險 32
4.3.3 敏感度分析 35
第五章 結論與建議 40
參考文獻 42
附錄一 各種經濟情境無限制風險下之最大報酬 43
附錄二 各種經濟情境限制風險下之最大報酬 46
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096358005en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休規劃zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產配置zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資策略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) retirement planningen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) asset allocationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) investment strategyen_US
dc.title (題名) 退休需求與理財規劃實務之探討zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. André F. Perold and William F. Sharpe (1995), Dynamic Strategies for Asset Allocation, Financial Analysts Journal , Vol. 51, 149-160zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Brian J. Jacobsen (2006), The Use of Downside Risk Measures in Tax-Efficient Portfolio Construction and Evaluation, The Journal of Wealth Management, Vol. 8, Iss. 4, 17 -27zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Christopher Donohue and Kenneth Yip (2003),Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing with Transaction Costs, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 29, Iss. 4, 49-63zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Cox, J.C., J. Ingersoll, and S. Ross (1985). A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Econometrica, 53, 385-408.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. Gordon J. Alexander, Alexandre M. Baptista (2003), Portfolio Performance Evaluation Using Value at Risk, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 29, Iss. 4, 93-102zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. Kevin Dowd, A Value at Risk Approach to Risk-return Analysis (1999), Journal of portfolio management, Vol. 25, Iss. 4, 60-67zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Paolo Battocchio and Francesco Menoncin (2004), Optimal Pension Management in A Stochastic Framework, Insurance :Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 34, Iss. 1, 79-95.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. Roger G . Clarke , Harindra de Silva , and Robert Murdock (2005), A Factor Approach to Asset Allocation, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 32, Iss. 1, 10-21zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. Roger G. Clarke and Robert D. Arnott (1987), The Cost of Portfolio Insurance: Tradeoffs and Choices, Financial Analysts Journal, Nov/Dec, 35-47zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Ulf Herold, Raimond Maurer, Michael Stamos, Huy Thanh (2007), Total Return Strategies for Multi-Asset Portfolios, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 33, Iss. 2, 60-76zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Elena Vigna and Steven Haberman (2001), Optimal Investment Strategy for Defined Contribution Pension Schemes, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 28, Iss. 2, 233-262.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. William T Ziemba (2005), The Symmetric Downside-Risk Sharpe Ratio, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 32, Iss. 1, 108-122zh_TW